camx-psat source apportionment modeling results
DESCRIPTION
CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results. Stationary Sources Joint Forum Meeting November 14, 2006 Tempe, AZ. Source Apportionment Technique. CAMx air quality model with PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) Tracks sources of sulfate and nitrate PSAT completed for 2 cases: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CAMx-PSATSource Apportionment
Modeling Results
Stationary Sources Joint Forum Meeting
November 14, 2006
Tempe, AZ
Source Apportionment Technique
• CAMx air quality model with PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT)
• Tracks sources of sulfate and nitrate• PSAT completed for 2 cases:
– Plan 2002c– Base 2018b
18 Source Regions on a 36 km Grid
- 2 7 3 6 - 2 4 1 2 - 2 0 8 8 - 1 7 6 4 - 1 4 4 0 - 1 1 1 6 - 7 9 2 - 4 6 8 - 1 4 4 1 8 0 5 0 4 8 2 8 1 1 5 2 1 4 7 6 1 8 0 0 2 1 2 4 2 4 4 8- 2 0 8 8
- 1 8 7 2
- 1 6 5 6
- 1 4 4 0
- 1 2 2 4
- 1 0 0 8
- 7 9 2
- 5 7 6
- 3 6 0
- 1 4 4
7 2
2 8 8
5 0 4
7 2 0
9 3 6
1 1 5 2
1 3 6 8
1 5 8 4
1 8 0 0
26
9
1 2
4
58
1 3
1 13
1 7
1 5
1 5
1 6
1 6
1 6
1 8 1 8
1 4
1 7
1 4
1 0
Eight Source Categories
• Examples of PSAT “sources”:– MV_CO = mobile sources in Colorado– PT_CE = point sorces in CENRAP– BCON = transport from modeling domain boundaries (derived from
GEOS-CHEM)
ICON Initial conditions
BCON Boundary conditions
PT Point sources
MV Mobile sources
ANF WRAP anthropogenic fires
Natural WRAP natural fires and biogenics
NWF Elevated fires in other RPOs
AR All other sources (non-elevated fires in other RPOs, area sources, offshore, oil & gas area sources, etc.)
Contribution of Colorado Mobile Sourcesto January 2002 Average NO3 Concentration
Contribution of Colorado Mobile Sourcesto January 2018 Average NO3 Concentration
Percent Contribution of WRAP Point Sourcesto NO3 at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AGTI1
BAND1
BRCA1
CABI1
CHIR1
CORI1
DEVA1
FOPE1
GLAC1
GRSA1
HOOV1
JARB1
KALM1
LOST1
MOHO1
MOZI1
NOCH1
PEFO1
PORE1
RAFA1
SACR1
SAGU1
SAWT1
SNPA1
SULA1
THSI1
ULBE1
WHPA1
YELL2
IMPROVE Monitoring Sites
Pe
rce
nt
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
Top 12 Class I AreasMt. Zirkel, COMesa Verde, COCanyonlands, UTWeminuche, COCapitol Reef, UTRocky Mountain, COZion, UTSaguaro, AZSycamore Canyon, AZBandelier, NMGreat Sand Dunes, COPetrified Forest, AZ
Percent Contribution of WRAP Point Sourcesto SO4 at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AGTI1
BAND1
BRCA1
CABI1
CHIR1
CORI1
DEVA1
FOPE1
GLAC1
GRSA1
HOOV1
JARB1
KALM1
LOST1
MOHO1
MOZI1
NOCH1
PEFO1
PORE1
RAFA1
SACR1
SAGU1
SAWT1
SNPA1
SULA1
THSI1
ULBE1
WHPA1
YELL2
IMPROVE Monitoring Sites
Pe
rce
nt
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
Columbia River Gorge
Top 12 Class I AreasMt. Zirkel, CORocky Mountain, COBridger, WYMesa Verde, COPetrified Forest, AZWeminuche, COBandelier, NMWind Cave, SDGreat Sand Dunes, COCanyonlands, UTNorth Cascades, WATheodore Roosevelt, ND
Percent Contribution of All Sourcesto SO4 at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AGTI1
BAND1
BRCA1
CABI1
CHIR1
CORI1
DEVA1
FOPE1
GLAC1
GRSA1
HOOV1
JARB1
KALM1
LOST1
MOHO1
MOZI1
NOCH1
PEFO1
PORE1
RAFA1
SACR1
SAGU1
SAWT1
SNPA1
SULA1
THSI1
ULBE1
WHPA1
YELL2
IMPROVE Monitoring Sites
Pe
rce
nt
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
WRAP PT WRAP Other Antrho WRAP Natural Canada Mexico
CENRAP East US Pacific Ocean Initial Boundary
Contribution of Boundary Conditions to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration
Contribution of Canada Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration
Contribution of CENRAP Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration
Contribution of Mexico Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration
Contribution of Pacific Ocean Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration
Contribution of Colorado Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration
Contribution of Wyoming Point Sources to August 2018Average SO4 Concentration
Percent Contribution of WRAP Point Sources to SO4from All US Anthro Sources at IMPROVE Sites on Worst Visibility Days (2018)
(All sources except WRAP Natural, Canada, Mexico, Pacific, and Boundary)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AGTI1
BAND1
BRCA1
CABI1
CHIR1
CORI1
DEVA1
FOPE1
GLAC1
GRSA1
HOOV1
JARB1
KALM1
LOST1
MOHO1
MOZI1
NOCH1
PEFO1
PORE1
RAFA1
SACR1
SAGU1
SAWT1
SNPA1
SULA1
THSI1
ULBE1
WHPA1
YELL2
IMPROVE Monitoring Sites
Pe
rce
nt
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
Summary
• WRAP point sources are a significant contributor to SO4 and NO3 at many Class I areas
• However, reasonable progress towards meeting natural conditions, especially beyond 2018, will require additional strategies.
For More Information
• Modeling results available at:– WRAP Technical Support System
• http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/
– WRAP Regional Modeling Center• http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/rmc/