camco crif presentation public sector 12 oct 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Duncan Price, Director
Presentation to Senior Public Sector Event 12/10/11
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives
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What is Cambridgeshire's potential?
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire is progressing well
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
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Inputs Scenario 1 (low)
Scenario 2 (medium)
Scenario 3 (high)
Scenario 4 (high without wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
Energy price [1]
DECC - 'low' energy prices
DECC - 'high' energy prices
DECC - 'high high' energy prices
DECC - 'high high' energy prices
Financial incentives (FIT/RHI)
lower than current tariff rates current rates
current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)
current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)
Project deployment rate (wind/biomass/EfW) 8% 15% 30%
30% (0% for wind)
Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Deployment options for renewable energy
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Renewable electricity potential is very large
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
District heating potential lies in Cambridge and Huntingdon
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Substantial infrastructure is needed
Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Significant investment opportunity
Investment potential for each scenario in £millions
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Energy efficiency and renewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12
Conclusions
• Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity
• There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind
• All technologies are needed – heat and electricity
• Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031
• Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget
• Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13
Thanks
Duncan Price
DirectorCamco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610e: [email protected]
172 Tottenham Court Road LondonW1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com
Renewable energy delivery pathways
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
There are three delivery pathways
Community Public Sector Commercial
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
What is the potential for each pathway?
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Public sector Community Commercial
Dep
loym
ent po
tential (GWh)
Deployment potential by pathway
Wind >=6 turbines
Wind <=5 turbines
Biomass
ASHP
GSHP
SWH
PV
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
Community deployment potential
• PV• 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels
• 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 houses (14%)
• £640m capex, £150m NPV
• Solar water heating• 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%)
• £50m capex, £20m NPV
• Heat pumps• 43,000 or 15% of houses
• £140m capex, £75m NPV
• Wind• 75MW or 30 turbines
• £120m capex, £8m NPV16
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
Vision for community delivery pathway
• Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy• Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms
• Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation
• Communities have access to a range of funding sources• Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types
• Gaining access to existing and new funding sources
• Communities are maximising learning from leading practice• Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes
• Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Vision for community delivery pathway
• Communities are managing energy projects effectively• Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach
• Range of delivery options identified
• Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19
Public sector deployment potential
• PV• 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels
• 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 houses (18%)
• £170m capex, £40m NPV
• Solar water heating• 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%)
• £10m capex, £4m NPV
• Heat pumps• 8,100 or 20% of houses
• £40m capex, £23m NPV
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• Wind• 27MW or 11 turbines
• £44m capex, £3m NPV
• Biomass• 14 installations of 1.5MW
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20
Vision for public sector pathway
• Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets• PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres
• PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners
• Appropriate wind development on public land
• Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP
• Renewable energy transition plan for each building
• Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21
Vision for public sector pathway
• Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets• Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL
• Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding
• Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion
• Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc.
• Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
Vision for public sector pathway
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23
Commercial deployment potential
• PV• 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels
• 3,200 non-residential buildings
• £720m capex, £165m NPV
• Solar water heating• 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of
buildings
• £9m capex, £4m NPV
• Heat pumps• 200 or 3% of buildings
• £75m capex, £43m NPV
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• Wind• For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or
11 turbines
• For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines
• Total capex £660m, £45m NPV
• Biomass• 14 installations of 1.5MW
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24
Vision for commercial delivery pathway
• Investment opportunities are clearly identified• Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1
• Benefits of growth agenda are articulated
• Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community
• Public sector is facilitating investment• Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty
• Engaging in constructive dialogue with community
• Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25
Vision for commercial delivery pathway
• Investment is flowing, projects being developed• Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development
potential
• Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly
• Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial requirements
• Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
Vision for commercial delivery pathway
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27
PV deployment potential
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28
Wind deployment potential
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29
What will the pathways look like or include?
• Compelling vision of what can be achieved
• Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation
• Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6.5bn of investment
• Local businesses are providing goods and services to the sector
• Leading county where people choose to invest
• Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted
• The public sector takes the lead
• Project plan for shared decision making
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives
30
Discussion Points
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 31
What will the public sector pathways look like?
• How can the public sector facilitate and support the delivery of more renewable energy delivery in Cambridgeshire?
• What is the role of the Public Sector?
• How can the public sector create the conditions to attract business and community buy-in and investment in Cambridgeshire?
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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32
Thanks
Duncan Price
DirectorCamco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610e: [email protected]
172 Tottenham Court Road LondonW1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com