{\rtf\ansi\deff0\ansicpg1252{\fonttbl{\f0\froman times new roman;}{\f1\fswiss helvetica;}{\f2 calibri;}}{\colortbl\red0\green0\blue0;\red0\green91\blue159;\red0\green0\blue255;\red34\green31\blue31;\red255\green0\blue0;\red30\green44\blue82;}{\info{\author Paola}}\jexpand\viewkind1\viewscale100\paperw12240\paperh15840\margl666\margr133\margt666\margb173\pard\li1146\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1146\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1146\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1146\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1146\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1146\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1146\ri0\sl-680\slmult0 \fs42\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {E}\b0 \fs42\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {l Cambio Climtico y Sus Efectos en el Per}\b0 \par\pard\li4306\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4306\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4306\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4306\ri0\sl-600\slmult0 \fs36\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {Paola Vargas*}\fs36\cf0\f1\charscalex100 { }\par\pard\li3160\ri0\sl-333\slmult0 \fs28\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {* Banco Central de Reserva del Per}\fs28\cf0\f1\charscalex100 { }\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4333\ri0\sl-453\slmult0 \fs32\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {D.T. N2009-14 }\par\pard\li3106\ri0\sl-373\slmult0 \fs32\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {Serie de Documentos de Trabajo }\par\pard\li3920\ri0\sl-373\slmult0 \fs32\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {Working Paper series }\par\pard\li4720\ri0\sl-373\slmult0 \fs32\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {Ju}\fs32\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {l}\fs32\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {io}\fs32\cf0\f1\charscalex100 { 2009 }\par\pard\li1160\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1160\ri0\sl-346\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {Los puntos de vista expresados en este documento de trabajo corresponden a los de la autora y no reflejan}\par\pard\li2746\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {necesariamente la posicin del Banco Central de Reserva del Per.}\fs18\cf0\f1\charscalex100 { }\par\pard\li1226\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect necessarily the position of the }\par\pard\li4226\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\f1\charscalex100 {Central Reserve Bank of Peru.}\fs18\cf0\f1\charscalex100 { }\par\pard\li9746\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li9746\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li9746\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li9746\ri0\sl-266\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {1 }\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbkpage{\shp{\*\shpinst\shpleft1706\shptop13386\shpright4586\shpbottom13386\shpfhdr0\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shplid2028\shpz0\shpbxpage\shpbypage{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn rotation}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn geoRight}{\sv 2880}}{\sp{\sn geoBottom}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn shapePath}{\sv 4}}{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;5;(0,0);(0,13);(2880,13);(2880,0);(0,0);}}{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv 2;12;16384;45824;1;45824;1;45824;1;45824;1;45824;24577;32768}}{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fLine}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fArrowheadsOK}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fLayoutInCell}{\sv 1}}}}\pgwsxn12240\pghsxn15840\marglsxn666\margrsxn133\margtsxn666\margbsxn173\pard\li2373\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li2373\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li2373\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li2373\ri0\sl-440\slmult0 \fs28\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {El }\b0 \fs28\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {Cambio Climtico y Sus Efectos en el Per}\b0 {\super \fs18\up5\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {{\field{\*\fldinst{HYPERLINK "#2"}}{\fldrslt {1}}}}\b0 }\par\pard\li4680\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4680\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {Paola Vargas}\b0 {\super \fs14\up5\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {{\field{\*\fldinst{HYPERLINK "#2"}}{\fldrslt {2}}}}\b0 }\par\pard\li3546\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li3546\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li3546\ri0\sl-333\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b \i {Banco Central de Reserva del Per }\b0 \i0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b \i { }\b0 \i0 \par\pard\li4853\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4853\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li4853\ri0\sl-333\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {Junio}\b0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b { }\b0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {2009}\b0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-333\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b \i {Resumen}\b0 \i0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {: }\i0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {Existe extensa literatura que evidencia que el calentamiento del sistema}\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-400\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {climtico es una realidad y que de no adoptar una poltica ambiental internacional rgida }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-426\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {frente a este tema, se hara ms inminente avanzar hacia escenarios extremos de ms de 5}\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs22\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {C de aumentos de temperatura para fin de siglo; lo que significara prdidas de hasta 20% }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs22\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {del PBI mundial. Los impactos del cambio climtico se distribuyen de manera heterognea }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {entre pases siendo los menos afectados aquellos pases con mayor participacin en la }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {acumulacin de GEI, como China y USA. Entre las regiones ms afectadas se encuentran }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {las que tienen sistemas productivos ms sensibles al clima como frica, el Sur y Sur}\i0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {-}\i0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {Este}\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {de Asia y Amrica Latina. Para el caso peruano se estima, basado en el marco terico}\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {propuesto por Dell, et al (2008), que un aumento de 2C en la temperatura mxima y 20% }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {en la variabilidad de las precipitaciones al 2050, generara una prdida de 6% respecto al }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {PBI potencial en el ao 2030, mientras que en el ao 2050 estas prdidas seran superiores }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {al 20%; reducindose estas prdidas a menos de la tercera parte en caso se adopten}\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100\i {polticas globales que estabilicen la variables climticas al 2030. }\i0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-293\slmult0 \fs12\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {1}\fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 { }\fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {La autora agradece los comentarios de Daniel Barco y Fernando Vsquez.}\fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 { }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-253\slmult0 \fs12\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {2}\fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 { }\fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Durante la elaboracin de este documento, Paola Vargas se desempeaba como Especialista en Crecimiento }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-226\slmult0 \fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Econmico del Banco Central de Reserva del Per. Actualmente, labora en el Banco Interamericano de}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-226\slmult0 \fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Desarrollo. Es posible comunicarse con ella a la siguiente direccin electrnica:{\field{\*\fldinst{HYPERLINK "mailto:pvargas@iadb.org"}}{\fldrslt { }}}}\fs20\cf2\f0\charscalex100 {{\field{\*\fldinst{HYPERLINK "mailto:pvargas@iadb.org"}}{\fldrslt {pvar}\fs20\cf2\f0\charscalex100 {g}\fs20\cf2\f0\charscalex100 {as@i}\fs20\cf2\f0\charscalex100 {a}\fs20\cf2\f0\charscalex100 {db.org}}}}\fs20\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {{\field{\*\fldinst{HYPERLINK "mailto:pvargas@iadb.org"}}{\fldrslt {.}}} }\par\pard\li9746\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li9746\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li9746\ri0\sl-266\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {2 }\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbkpage\pgwsxn12240\pghsxn15840\marglsxn666\margrsxn133\margtsxn666\margbsxn173\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-466\slmult0 \fs28\cf0\f0\charscalex100\b {Introduccin }\b0 \par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-213\slmult0 \fs18\cf0\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-333\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {A partir de la revolucin industrial, la actividad humana ha exacerbado el calentamiento}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {global a travs de la acumulacin acelerada de GEI en la atmsfera, especialmente dixido }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {de carbono y metano. As, en lo}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 { }\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {que va del siglo XXI (2000}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {-}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {2007) la temperatura promedio}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs22\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {global se ha elevado en 0,65}{\super \fs14\up4\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {o}}\fs22\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {C respecto a la temperatura promedio de la primera mitad del }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {siglo XX. }\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 { }\par\pard\li1760\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Las mediciones ms difundidas del impacto global del cambio climtico estiman }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {prdidas de hasta 20% del PBI mundial, para aumentos de temperatura por encima de 5}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {C.}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {E}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {ntre las regiones ms afectadas ante el cambio climtico se encuentran frica, el Sur y }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-426\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Sur-}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Este de Asia y Amrica Latina; mientras que pases como China y USA presentan los }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-400\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {menores impa}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {ctos del cambio climtico y registran la mayor participacin en la }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-426\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {acumulacin de GEI. De acuerdo con Tyndall Center (2003), el Per se encontrara entre }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {los diez pases ms vulnerables ante eventos climticos junto a pases como Honduras, }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Bangladesh y Venezuela. Esta vulnerabilidad est asociada a la alta dependencia a sectores }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {primarios sensibles al cambio climtico, tales como el agrcola y el pesquero, as como al }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {bajo nivel institucional, que dificulta la planificacin y ejecucin de acciones de adapta}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {cin}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {concretas. }\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 { }\par\pard\li1746\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {El Per muestra una gran vulnerabilidad ante variaciones climticas drsticas, }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {siendo evidencia de ello las prdidas econmicas que implicaron fenmenos como el Nio. }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {As, bajo un escenario pasivo los efectos del cambio climtico podran s}\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {er incluso}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {superiores ya que los efectos se potenciaran al involucrarse otros mecanismos que afectan }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {negativamente el crecimiento; como la prdida de }\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {disponibilidad de recursos hdricos (para }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {consumo humano y generacin energtica) debido al retroceso glaciar, la prdida de }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {productividad primaria agrcola y pesquera producto del aumento de la temperatura del }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {mar, la prdida de biodiversidad, y efectos sobre la salud humana. }\par\pard\li1746\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {Este informe otorga una descripcin general sobre el fenmeno de cambio}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {climtico, }\fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {as como el contexto global en el que ste se interrelaciona, enfocando el anlisis }\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {en las consecuencias e impactos econmicos tanto para la economa global como para la}\par\pard\li1040\ri0\sl-413\slmult0 \fs24\cf0\f0\charscalex100 {peruana. 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