call for a transformational process in the face of climate change

Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa

Alain L. ANGETechnical Adviser


Call for a Transformational Process in the face of Climate Change

in Sub Saharan Agriculture


Vulnerability – Adaptation - Development

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects including variability and extreme events.

• Adaptation = Internally organized ]

+ Externally driven ] Transition

• Organization provides for development

Lack of organization leads to dependence

Three components for an organized Transition in agriculture under the stress of Climate Change:

From Vulnerability to Resilience From Adaptation to Adaptation and Mitigation From piece meal Adaptation to Transformational Process


Food production could not face demand for food

Huge change happened in production to consumption systems

The cropped area doubled, production per capita dropped, imports soared

SSA Millions Mouths to feed Agricultural population Consumer/ agric people

1980 369 258 1.43

2010 820 382 2.15

Growth 2.22 1.48 1.50

SSA – source FAO 1980 – M t 1980 – kg/cap. 2008 – M t 2008 – kg/cap.

Cereal production 51 138.1 109 139.7

Net Cereal imports 3.9 10.4 20.4 24.9

Food imports 10 27.3 33 42.2

Food exports 8.7 23.6 11.2 14.4

Exports industrial crops 3.8 10.2 5.7 7.3


1b - Farmers did better within their context

Kg produced/ agricultural people

1985 2008 Change %

Cereals 210.9 256.7 + 22

Beans + peas 15.6 23.9 + 53

Oil seeds 14.3 24.7 + 73

Tubers + bananas 355.9 540.6 + 52

Vegetables 52.0 70.0 + 35

Fruits 26.8 33.0 + 23

Perennial food crops 239.6 207.1 - 14

Spices 0.15 0.17 +13

Non food crops 7.6 8.6 + 13

TOTAL average mass (922.85) (1,164.77) + 26


1c - Very little change in average farm size

Ha cropped/ 10 agricultural people

1985 2008 Change %

Cereals 1.800 1.848 + 3

Beans + peas 0.316 0.425 + 34

Oil seeds 0.289 0.357 + 24

Tubers + bananas 0.517 0.617 + 19

Vegetables 0.106 0.134 + 26

Fruits 0.028 0.033 + 18

Perennial food crops 0.390 0.345 - 12

Spices 0.005 0.004 - 20

Annual non food crops 0.011 0.010 - 10

Perennial non food 0.028 0.032 + 14

Total 3.490 3.805 + 9


Lessons from changes in food production systems

The actual vulnerability of farmers should be evaluated within the considerable shifts that happened in production systems and income sources and expenditures within the growing scarcity of natural resource.

o The average farmer has increased the crop output by ~ 15% in the last 30 years, without increasing the cropped area per farm, without inputs;

o The first signals of climate change happened in the Mid Seventies;

o Domestic production could not match increasing food demand ;o Average people’ s income from industrial export crops decreased;o Land degradation affected 1/3 of the cropped area.


Poverty is a major limiting factor to change

• Annual economic growth has not been enough in at least 30 countries for reducing poverty.

• Investment is the most powerful method for adaptation.• Poverty is the most limiting factor for addressing adaptation

to climate change as it jeopardizes investments.• Risks are maintaining many rural people into poverty.

Coherent policies are required for harnessing risks and valuing opportunities in order to reduce poverty:

- Social security nets; insurances; food for work schemes- Land use planning giving access to harnessed resources- Production chains development, credit, fair market access- Institutional development and regulations


What will happen in next 30 years

SSA Millions Mouths to feed Agricultural population

Consumer/ agric people

2010 820 382 2.15

2040 1,467 527 2.78

Growth 1.79 1.38 1.29

Food availability per capita should increase by 30% while food import per capita should decrease;

The average production by every agricultural people should increase by 90% for maintaining food imports at present level;

Degraded land should be restored; land degradation controlled.

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Necessary deployment of farming and adaptation

Adaptation to climate change is inserted into a steady process of agricultural development and fuelled by combined Public and Private Investment reducing poverty, backed by institutional progress.

Intensified, enlarged, diversified farming systems Increasing farm size (motorization and animal draught ) within land use plans;

Increasing labour productivity through mechanization and system approach; Increasing land productivity through new breeds, inputs use, water management;

Increasing resilience / sustainability through biodiversity, diversification and conservation farming combined with financial systems

Intensification and risks sharing through effective production chains

Agricultural progress articulated with participatory/ decentralized land use planning, backed by public investment for infrastructures


Practically facing climate change in a rapidly expanding agriculture

10 domains for action through partnerships• Generating and sharing accurate information• Provide resilience to accrued temperatures• Provide resilience to the vagaries of rains• Harness water flows in excess in the watersheds• Support diversification and intensification of agricultural production

systems• Settle development tools and capital growth mechanisms and secure those

through insurances and buffer financial systems; • Develop social safety nets for the vulnerable• Secure food availability through resilient food systems and security stocks• Secure people, crops and livestock from emerging diseases, pest

outbreaks and epidemics• Provide capacity to decentralized participatory innovation systems while

reinforcing capacity for centralized invention systems fuelling innovation


Generating and sharing accurate information

System wise information should support the promotion of local transformation processes by the stakeholders:

- Meteorological and climatic national information- Locally collected meteorological information + decision models- Inputs and outputs markets information- Information on food security stocks and insurance systems- Information on access to land, on systems and infrastructures

harnessing natural resources- Information about available cultivars and animal breeds- Information on production chains and related access

▬►Partners = meteorological services, research, extension, NGOs, private sector, medias, local governments


Provide resilience to accrued temperature

Forecasted temperature changes are not marginal for agriculture: each [degree x day] that maize spends above 30°C depress yields by 1% if crops have enough water and by 1.7% if crops face drought.

Resilience will be provided through restructuring the land use• Crops are sheltered by trees as done in oasis farming;• Regular sets of lines of trees break hot winds;• Tree plantations allow for mechanized farming;• Trees plantation contribute to water harvesting and erosion control

within restructured land use;• Agro-forestry maintains soil fertility and composes resilient multi-storey

cropping systems;• Planted trees support new production chains and employment.• Crop selection is oriented towards resistance to temperature.

▬►Partners = Farmers’ organizations, forestry services, local governments, research and extension, NGOs, wood industry


Provide resilience to the vagaries of rains

→ There are uncertainties about changes in the rainfall pattern.

→ However, the vagaries of rainfall will increase.

→ Water demand from crops will increase with temperature. Cropping systems organized to face increased risks of water shortage

(shorter crop cycles, photoperiodic cultivars, multi- cropping – multi storey systems);

Water harvesting developed to tap excessive rains for in situ storage (conservation farming)

Land shaping for harvesting run-off water and storage in local tanks and reservoirs for local irrigation;

Complementary irrigation for facing drought spells and promotion of drip irrigation wherever possible.

▬►Partners = local farmers’ associations, local government, Ministry of Agriculture, water service, private sector, research, extension, NGOs


Harness water flows in the watersheds

• Revisit the hydrology of the lowlands for organizing protecting dykes, expansion of floods and water harvesting;

• Connect water harvesting on slopes with water management for irrigation in lowlands

• Promote the development of trees in watersheds for regulating water flows in lowlands

• Expand irrigated areas, while promoting water saving technologies

• Develop local institutions for water harvesting and use

▬►Partnership = Government, watershed agencies, local government farmers’ organizations, research, extension, NGOs, private sector.


Organize land use planning for facilitating increase in farm size while protecting natural resources;

Support mechanization and motorization of small scale farming through adequate financing mechanisms;

Organize inputs access with necessary financing systems; Link intensification with improved access to water; Organize harvest storage systems; Support the development of production chains contributing

to the promotion of farming in relation to diversification.

▬►Partners = Ministry of agriculture, farmers’ organization, banking sector, processing – marketing sector, R & D

Support diversification and intensification of agricultural production systems


Secure development tools and capital growth through insurances and buffer financial systems

→ Insurances save farmers’ investments and secure credit systems, thus easing contributions from private sector.

→ Insurance and credit systems should be buffered through public funding in case of disasters.

• Develop insurance systems and buffer those through public disaster management schemes;

• Connect credit and insurances to reduce premiums;• Involve farmers’ unions in the management.• Involve all stakeholders in production chains in securing

farming against climatic risks

▬►Partners = Government, banks, insurances, farmers’ unions, private sector, research, extension, CSOs, NGOs.


Develop safety nets for the vulnerable

• Develop social safety nets so that poor people would be given access to development programs and insurances;

• Partly finance safety nets through innovative management of commons at community level for mitigation of CC;

• Mobilize jobless people in local infrastructure development;• Promote educated youth for managing financial services,

security stocks, safety nets and for advisory services;• Develop targeted jobs at community level for promoting

ecological services;

▬► Promote capacity of local governments


Secure food availability through resilient food systems and security stocks

• Develop security food stocks that would buffer for shortages and surplus at local level;

• Connect those stocks with national food security stocks;• Organize food for work for contribution to infrastructures• Connect those local stocks with the warrantage system;• Organize connection between credit, insurance and

security stocks in order to alleviate poverty.• Promote regional trade for securing access to food

▬►Partners = Government and local government; banks and insurances, farmers’ organizations, CSOs and NGOs, private sector, research, extension.


Secure people, crops and livestock from emerging diseases - pest outbreaks - epidemics

• Climate Change is already and will further cause shifts in the geographic distribution of pests and diseases.

Promotion of alert systems; Development of sanitary barrier and containment systems Development of vaccinations Development of phyto-sanitary intervention programs Design of health protection programs and quick intervention Training all professionals concerned and informing the public

▬► Partners = Government, sanitary, veterinarian and phyto sanitary services, farmers’ organizations, research, CSOs, NGOs, Private sector, extension


Provide capacity to decentralized innovation and reinforce centralized innovation

→ At local level, solutions would be better developed for developing land use planning, intensification, infrastructures and land development, for processing and marketing, mobilizing indigenous knowledge and science.

→ Major technical and organizational innovations, in particular for finance, social nets and medium to large scale infrastructure set up will be generated from government with local contributions.

Local capacity to be developed through innovation platforms associating all concerned stakeholders for a decentralized action plan.

National capacity to be improved through institutional development for: Support to information systems servicing the public Support to land use planning and land greening Support to water harvesting and water management Support to farm development and intensification Development of financial and insurance systems Development of food security stocks, social safety nets Face pests outbreaks, merging diseases and epidemics


In ConclusionFarmers’ organizations have a key role to play:- in organizing and controlling the development of institutions,

in the design of methods and regulations for adapting to climate change;

- in improved land use planning, investment in land and water;- in the intensification process, in market development and

production chain development;- in the development of buffer stocks, insurances and credit.

The government should organize and fund for greening the land, harnessing water, developing key infrastructures and safety nets and provide accurate policies and institutional development.The private sector should develop fair production chains.


Thank you

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call for a transformational process in the face of climate change

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