california energy commission draft 2015 integrated energy policy report october 20, 2015 presented...
TRANSCRIPT
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California Energy Commission
Draft 2015
Integrated Energy
Policy Report
October 20, 2015
Presented by Heather Raitt
Assistant Executive Director for Policy Development
[email protected] / 916-654-4735
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California Energy Commission
Background
• The Energy Commission prepares an IEPR every two years, an update in intervening years. The Energy Commission:– Adopted Order Instituting Information Proceeding for 2014 IEPR Update
and 2015 IEPR in January 2014
– Issued 2015 IEPR Scoping Order on Feb. 27, 2014
– Held 26 workshops on Scoping Order topics
• Draft report, workshop presentations, and transcripts available at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2015_energypolicy/
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California Energy Commission
Governor Brown’s Goals
• Executive Order B-30-15: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030
– Double the efficiency savings achieved at existing buildings and make heating fuels cleaner
– Increase from 33% to 50% renewable electricity
– Reduce today's petroleum use in cars and trucks by up to 50%
• The Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015 (Senate Bill 350, DeLeón, 2015)
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California Energy Commission
Topics in 2015 IEPR
• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonizing electricity, planning transmission
• Decarbonizing transportation
• Electricity, natural gas, and transportation forecasts
• California’s drought
• Updates on nuclear energy, electricity reliability in Southern California, and oil-by-rail
• Climate change research
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California Energy Commission
Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Focus on Energy Efficiency
• Residential and commercial sectors account for:
– 27% of GHG emissions
– 70% of electricity use
– 55% of natural gas use
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California Energy Commission
Existing Buildings Energy Efficiency Action Plan
• Government leadership– Improve public buildings
– Benchmarking and disclosure
– Facilitate application of codes
• Building energy use data
• High quality upgrades
• Financing
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California Energy Commission
Other Energy Efficiency Strategies
• Utility programs
• Proposition 39
• Zero-net energy homes
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California Energy Commission
Decarbonizing Electricity
• Challenge to integrate 50%
renewables
• Portfolio of demand- and
supply-side solutions
• Energy Imbalance Market
and regional grid are key
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California Energy Commission
Transmission PlanningLessons from:•Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI)
•Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan
•Local planning efforts
•Scientific studies
Informs RETI 2.0, landscape-scale, regional planning
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California Energy Commission
Preliminary Electricity Forecast
• 10-year forecast includes:– Energy efficiency– Climate change– Self generation, mainly PV– Electric vehicles
• Final forecast will include additional achievable energy efficiency, IOU and POU
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California Energy Commission
Natural Gas
Natural Gas Outlook–Prices, production, and demand
AB 1257 Report–Pipeline infrastructure, storage, and reliability
–Electric generation
–Combined heat and power
–Transportation
–End-use efficiency applications
–Natural gas and zero-net-energy (ZNE) buildings
–Other low emission resources and biogas
–GHG emissions
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California Energy Commission
Transportation
• Transportation is 38% of state GHG emissions
• Suite of policies and programs support the Governor’s goal of 50% petroleum reduction by 2030
• Preliminary forecast includes:
– Fuel Prices– Vehicle Population– Fuel Economy– Miles Traveled– Fuel Demand
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California Energy Commission
Nuclear Energy
• Decommissioning San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station
• Diablo Canyon status
• Nuclear waste storage
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California Energy Commission
Electricity Reliability in Southern California
• Interagency collaboration
• Transmission upgrades
• Local capacity needs
• Contingency planning
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California Energy Commission
Changing Trends in California’s Crude Oil by Rail
Crude oil imports via rail Jan. 2013-March 2015
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• Additional pipeline capacity came on-line last 18 months
• Decline in crude-by-rail
• New safety related regulations
• Additional data needed to track crude-by-rail
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California Energy Commission
California Drought
• Water and energy are inextricably linked– Thermal power plant cooling
– Hydroelectric production
– Energy requirements of water pumping and delivery
• Multiple programs are planned and underway to conserve both water and energy– See August 28, 2015 workshop
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California Energy Commission
Climate Change Research• Climate research related to energy sector
• Vulnerability of energy systems
• Further research needed ne
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California Energy Commission
Next Steps
• Comments due November 10
• Instructions on submitting written comments are on the October 20 workshop notice available at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2015_energypolicy/
• Release of proposed final 2015 IEPR anticipated late January 2016
• Proposed adoption February 2016
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