硕士厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库 - core · 2016-07-05 · strategic commitment at...

学校编码：10384 分类号密级

学号：17620111151267 UDC

硕士学位论文

经济周期视角下中国家电企业战略承诺和绩效

Strategic Commitments and Performance of China's

Household Appliances Corporations Based on

the Perspective of Business Cycle

李伊阳

指导教师姓名：赖国伟助理教授

专业名称：市场营销学

论文提交日期： 2 0 1 4 年 4 月

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评阅人：

2014 年 4 月

厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库

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III

摘要

战略承诺学派将企业长期竞争优势归结于企业执行战略承诺的决心和程度。

战略承诺的不可逆转性，意味着企业需要对产业结构的演变方向和发生时机做出

准确预测。因此，识别机遇和抓住机遇是企业实现战略管理的必然要求，也是企

业获得竞争优势的重要前提。

本文以企业执行战略承诺投资时机为研究对象，探讨不同经济发展阶段企业

战略承诺投资时机选择和企业业绩之间的关系，旨在技术创新导致经济周期波动

的前提下，发掘导致企业业绩出现差异的深层原因，从而为企业通过识别主导产

业和宏观经济的发展规律，把握执行进入主导产业战略承诺的最佳时机，获得长

期竞争优势提供新的理论视角和具体的分析方法。

产业结构变化的实质是技术创新。根据熊彼特的循环经济理论，技术创新按

照长波周期循环波动。在熊彼特创新理论的基础上，罗斯托认为，产业结构的变

更将通过主导产业的更替体现出来。新的主导产业将在下一个长波周期中推动经

济整体增长、并保持高速成长。范杜因从产业生命周期的角度，进一步发现长波

周期波动和技术创新之间存在对应关系，主导产业集中出现在长波周期的复苏期

和成熟期。本文结合熊彼特的三期嵌套理论、主导产业理论和产业生命周期理论，

识别1992-2012年之间中国中波周期和短波周期波动，分析主导产业的演变情况，

比较家电制造企业执行进入主导产业的战略承诺时机选择对企业绩效的影响。

研究主要分为中国经济周期分析和多案例分析两部分。在经济周期划分的部

分，根据熊彼特经济周期理论，利用NBER方法将1992-2012年间中国经济划分为

不同的朱格拉周期和基钦周期，总结不同经济周期的具体特征。通过比较不同行

业增加值对GDP推动力量的强弱变化，识别中国主导产业的变迁。在多案例分析

的部分，以1992-2012间中国家电制造业中7家具有代表性的上市公司为样本，以

企业的年报、公告和财务数据为文本来源，通过整理企业战略承诺大事年表的方

式，分析经济周期视角下不同企业战略承诺选择时机对企业业绩的影响。

本文探讨中国家电制造企业的择时能力对企业业绩的影响，对企业执行战略

承诺的最佳融资、投资和业务剥离时点进行了归纳，对导致企业业绩差异的深层

原因做出总结。本论文的主要结论如下：（1）业绩表现优秀的企业通过把握长


IV

波周期的发展规律，集中在每个朱格拉周期的第一个基钦周期和经济危机的前夕

获得融资，并在第一个基钦周期前半期和第二个基钦周期前半期准确进入主导产

业。而在第三个基钦周期，业绩表现优秀的企业在经济危机爆发前获得大量低成

本融资，利用经济危机之后资产价格的低点，通过股权收购的形式快速获得扩张，

并在下一个朱格拉周期的第一个基钦周期中获得竞争优势。（2）体制是影响企

业战略承诺时机选择的重要原因。（3）业绩导向的股权激励计划，在经济繁荣

时约束高管团队的过分扩张行为，并激励高管团队在经济衰退时努力提升企业绩

效。（4）本文发现战略承诺的决心和灵活性之间不存在矛盾，企业在准确把握

经济周期波动的前提下，可以通过在不同产业之间灵活选择战略承诺的时机和形

式，获得长期竞争优势。

本文引入经济周期视角，将宏观经济波动和企业微观行为联系起来，通过定

性数据结合定量数据的方式，讨论了企业业绩和企业进行战略承诺时机选择能力

之间的关系。然而，本文的结论适用于处于高度竞争、具有强烈规模效应的产业，

对于受到政府保护的垄断企业和依托特定客户、提供定制服务企业的战略承诺时

机选择，所导致的企业业绩差异缺乏解释力。

本文主要分为七个章节，分别是绪论、战略承诺和长期竞争优势、经济周期

和战略承诺时机、中国经济周期的识别、研究方法与假设、案例分析、结论和启

示讨论。在绪论中，我们对研究问题、前提、意义和论文的总体框架做出阐述。

在战略承诺和长期竞争优势中，我们对结构学派、资源学派和战略承诺学派的理

论进行回顾，阐述了企业长期竞争优势的来源。在经济周期和战略承诺时机、中

国经济周期的识别中，根据熊彼特经济周期理论、主导产业理论和产业生命周期

理论，解释经济周期视角下，企业如何选择进入主导产业的战略承诺时机，从而

获得长期竞争优势。在中国经济周期的识别中，在经济周期视角下发现中国主导

产业的变更时机和家电制造企业的业绩之间存在联系。在研究方法与假设、案例

分析和结论和启示讨论中，通过观察中国主导产业变更和家电制造企业业绩波动

间的关系，结合之前的理论回顾提出假设,采用多案例研究的方式进行分析，并

对研究结果进行验证并提出新启示。

关键词：经济周期；竞争优势；战略承诺


V

Abstract

Pankaj Ghemawat consides that the determination and implementation of

strategic commitment is the only general explanantion for sustainable difference in

the performance of companies. The irreversibility of strategic commitment means that

companies need to predic the evolvment of the industrial structure and the occurrence

of timing accuratly. Therefore, to identify business opportunities and seize the

opportunity is not only an inevitable requirement to achieve strategic management,

but also an important prerequisite for companies to gain competitive advantage.

Based on the companies strategic commitment to investment opportunities as the

research object, this paper explore the relationship between the opportunity choices of

strategic commitment at different stages of economic cycle and corporate

performance, technological innovation leads to fluctuations in the economic cycle.

On the basis of Schumpeterian innovation theory, Rostow recognized industry

structure change will be reflected by leading industries. The new leading industries of

the next long wave cycle to promote overall economic growth, and to maintain high

growth. Vanduyn further found that leading industry concentrating in the

improvement period and prosperity period of long-wave cycle. Based on

Schumpeter's business cycle theory, leading industry and industry life cycle theory ,

the study focuses on how companies grasp the best time to enter into the leading

industry to gain long-term competitive advantage by identifing business cycle.

The research is divided into two parts, identification of business cycle in China

and multi-case study: (1) according to Schumpeter's theory of economic cycles，

dividing the period of China's economy from 1992 to 2012 into different Juglar cycles

and Kitchin cycles by NBER, and identifying China leading industry change. (2)

collecting annual reports, announcements and financical date from the 7 companies in

Chinese household appliance manufacturing industry as cases’text sample,and

analyzing the relationship between the timing of strategic commitment modles and

performance on the difference stages of business cycles.


VI

This paper finds that the companies of high performance obtained financing in

the first Kitchin cycle with a Juglar cycle and in the run up of the economic crisis, and,

entered into new industries in the first Kitchin cycle and the second Kitchin cycle.they

merged and acquised after the economic crisis ,reserved for entering new leading

industry at next Juglar cycle. The system is an important reason to affect the

opportunity choices of the enterprise strategic commitment. MBO plan can constraint

the excesses behavior of manage team during the economic boom, and motivate TMT

to enhance corporate performance in a recession. TMT can foresee the economic

cycle fluctuations, choose strategic commitment flexibility, and obtain long-term

competitive advantage.

The paper discusses the relationship between companise performance and the

ablitiliy of seizing the opportunity of strategic commitment under the businuss cycle

view,and combined the micro behavior with macroeconomic cycle by the qualitative

data and quantitative data.The conclusion of this article does not apply to monopoly

industries and industry that relying on intangible assets and providing customized

services.

This paper contains seven parts. In the introduction,we introduces the research

background ,the purpose and Innovations and framework of the paper. In the chapter

of commitment and advantage,we review the theory about competitive advantage and

explain the origin of the long-term of competitive advantage. In the chapter of

business cycle and commitment, according to Schumpeter's theory of economic cycles,

industry leading theory and industry life cycle theory,we explain how and when

companies make commitment which leads the companies obtain the long-term

competitive advantage. In the chapter of identification of business cycle in China, we

found a link between China's leading industry change and the performance of Chinese

household appliance manufacturing companies. In the chapter of the research methods

and assumptions, we explain the research methods and put forward hypothesis. In the

chapter of case analysis and conclusions and implications, test hypothesis and give

relevant explanation.


VII

Keyword:Business Cycle; Competitive Advantage; Strategic Commitment


VIII

目录

第 1 章绪论 .............................................................................................. 1

1.1 研究问题 .......................................................................................................... 1

1.2 研究前提 .......................................................................................................... 2

1.3 研究框架 .......................................................................................................... 3

1.4 研究意义和创新点 .......................................................................................... 5

第 2 章战略承诺和长期竞争优势 .......................................................... 7

2.1 结构学派的竞争优势理论 ............................................................................. 7

2.2 资源学派的竞争优势理论 ............................................................................. 9

2.3 结构学派、资源学派和战略承诺理论 ....................................................... 11

2.4 战略承诺理论 ............................................................................................... 12

2.5 专用性资产和战略承诺的不可逆转性 ....................................................... 13

2.6 战略承诺和企业长期竞争优势 ................................................................... 15

第 3 章经济周期和战略承诺时机 ........................................................ 18

3.1 战略承诺理论和熊彼特 ............................................................................... 18

3.2 熊彼特三期嵌套理论 ................................................................................... 19

3.3 主导产业和长波周期 ................................................................................... 22

3.4 产业生命周期和长波周期 ........................................................................... 23

3.5 经济周期视角下的战略承诺 ....................................................................... 26

第 4 章中国经济周期识别 .................................................................... 29

4.1 经济周期的识别方法 ................................................................................... 29

4.2 中国经济中的中波周期和短波周期 ........................................................... 30


IX

4.3 中国经济不同阶段特征 ............................................................................... 32

4.3.1 不同经济周期固定资产投资情况 .......................................................... 32

4.3.2 不同经济周期资产价格波动情况 .......................................................... 35

4.3.3 不同经济周期信贷规模波动情况 ........................................................... 37

4.4 中国主导产业的演化 .................................................................................... 39

第 5 章假设和研究设计 ........................................................................ 44

5.1 研究内容和假设 ........................................................................................... 44

5.2 研究方法的选择 ........................................................................................... 44

5.3 研究的信效度控制 ....................................................................................... 45

5.4 样本选择 ....................................................................................................... 46

5.5 文本来源 ....................................................................................................... 49

5.6 资料采集和分析 ........................................................................................... 49

第 6 章案例分析 .................................................................................... 51

6.1 青岛海尔战略承诺时机选择 ....................................................................... 51

6.1.1 青岛海尔背景资料 ...................................................................................... 51

6.1.2 青岛海尔战略承诺大事件与战略转变 ................................................... 52

6.1.3 经济周期视角下青岛海尔战略承诺时机选择 ...................................... 54

6.2 美的电器战略承诺时机选择 ....................................................................... 57

6.2.1 美的电器背景资料 ...................................................................................... 57

6.2.2 美的电器战略承诺大事件与战略转变 ................................................... 58

6.2.3 经济周期视角下美的电器战略承诺时机选择 ...................................... 61

6.3 格力电器战略承诺时机选择 ....................................................................... 63

6.3.1 格力电器背景资料 ...................................................................................... 63

6.3.2 格力电器战略承诺大事件与战略转变 ................................................... 64


X

6.3.3 经济周期视角下格力电器战略承诺时机选择 ...................................... 66

6.4 海信电器战略承诺时机选择 ....................................................................... 69

6.4.1 海信电器背景资料 ...................................................................................... 69

6.4.2 海信电器战略承诺大事件与战略转变 ................................................... 70

6.4.3 经济周期视角下海信电器战略承诺时机选择 ...................................... 72

6.5 四川长虹战略承诺时机选择 ....................................................................... 74

6.5.1 四川长虹背景资料 ...................................................................................... 75

6.5.2 四川长虹战略承诺大事件与战略转变 ................................................... 75

6.5.3 经济周期视角下四川长虹战略承诺时机选择 ...................................... 78

6.6 康佳集团战略承诺时机选择 ....................................................................... 81

6.6.1 康佳集团背景资料 ...................................................................................... 81

6.4.2 康佳集团战略承诺大事件与战略转变 ................................................... 81

6.6.3 经济周期视角下康佳集团战略承诺时机选择 ...................................... 84

6.7 小天鹅战略承诺时机选择 ........................................................................... 86

6.7.1 小天鹅背景资料 .......................................................................................... 87

6.7.2 小天鹅战略承诺大事件与战略转变 ....................................................... 87

6.7.3 经济周期视角下小天鹅战略承诺时机选择 .......................................... 89

第 7 章结论和启示 ................................................................................ 92

7.1 战略承诺最佳时机选择模式与企业业绩之间的关系 ............................... 92

7.2 最佳战略承诺时机选择模式启示 ............................................................... 96

7.2.1 最佳战略承诺时机选择启示 .................................................................... 96

7.2.2 第三个基钦周期的战略承诺时机选择 ................................................... 98

7.3 影响战略承诺时机选择的因素分析 ........................................................... 98

7.3.1 体制和股权激励对企业战略承诺时机选择的影响 ............................. 99


XI

7.3.2 战略承诺投资决心和灵活性对企业战略承诺时机选择的影响 ..... 100

7.4 研究局限与发展 ......................................................................................... 102

7.4.1 研究的局限性 ............................................................................................ 102

7.4.2 未来研究方向 ............................................................................................ 103

参考文献 ................................................................................................ 105

附录一 .................................................................................................... 109

致谢......................................................................................................... 172


XII

Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 1

1.1 Research Question ......................................................................................... 1

1.2 Research Background.................................................................................... 2

1.3 Research Framework .................................................................................... 3

1.4 Research Purpose and Innovations .............................................................. 5

Chapter 2 Commitment and Advantage ................................................................. 7

2.1 Structure School ........................................................................................... 7

2.2 Resource School ............................................................................................. 9

2.3 Structure School vs Resource School ......................................................... 11

2.4 Strategic Commitment ................................................................................ 12

2.5 Specificity Resource and Strategic Commitment ..................................... 13

2.6 Strategic Commitment and Long-term Competitive Advantage ............ 15

Chapter 3 Business Cycle and Commitment ........................................................ 18

3.1 Strategic Commitment Theory and Schumpeter .................................... 19

3.2 Schumpeter's Business Cycle Theory ........................................................ 22

3.3 Leading Industry and The Long Wave ...................................................... 23

3.4 The Industry Life Cycle and The Long Wave ........................................... 26

3.5 The Business Cycle Perspective Strategic Commitment .......................... 29

Chapter 4 Identification of Business Cycle in China ........................................... 29

4.1 The method of Identification Business Cycle .......................................... 29

4.2 Juglar Cycle and Kitchin Cycle in China .................................................. 30

4.3 Chinese Economic stages Characteristics .................................................. 32


XIII

4.3.1 Different Business Cycle in Fixed Assets Investment ........................ 32

4.3.2 Different Business Cycle in fluctuation of asset price ........................ 35

4.3.3 Different Business Cycle in Credit Scale ........................................... 37

Chapter 5 Research Design and Hypothesis ......................................................... 39

5.1 Research Contents and Hypothesis .......................................................... 44

5.2 Research Methods ........................................................................................ 44

5.3 Increase the Validity and Reliability .......................................................... 45

5.4 Cases Selection ............................................................................................. 46

5.5 Data Collection ............................................................................................. 48

5.6 Methods of Data Analysis............................................................................ 49

Chapter 6 Case Study ............................................................................................. 51

6.1 Haier Strategic Commitment ...................................................................... 51

6.1.1 Haier background information ............................................................ 51

6.1.2 Haier Strategic Commitment events ................................................... 52

6.1.3 The Business Cycle Perspective Haier Commitment ......................... 54

6.2 Meide Strategic Commitment ..................................................................... 57

6.2.1 Meide background information .......................................................... 57

6.2.2 Meide Strategic Commitment events .................................................. 57

6.2.3 The Business Cycle Perspective Meide Commitment ........................ 60

6.3 Gree Strategic Commitment ....................................................................... 63

6.3.1 Gree background information ............................................................. 63

6.3.2 Gree Strategic Commitment events .................................................... 64

6.3.3 The Business Cycle Perspective Gree Commitment .......................... 67

6.4 Hisense Strategic Commitment .................................................................. 69


XIV

6.4.1 Hisense background information ........................................................ 70

6.4.2 Hisense Strategic Commitment events ............................................... 70

6.4.3 The Business Cycle Perspective Hisense Commitment ..................... 72

6.5 CHANGHONG Strategic Commitment ...................................................... 74

6.5.1 CHANGHONG background information ........................................... 75

6.5.2 CHANGHONG Strategic Commitment events .................................. 75

6.5.3 The Business Cycle Perspective CHANGHONG Commitment ........ 78

6.6 Konka Strategic Commitment ...................................................................... 81

6.6.1 Konka background information .......................................................... 81

6.6.2 Konka Strategic Commitment events ................................................. 81

6.6.3 The Business Cycle Perspective Konka Commitment ....................... 84

6.7 LITTLE SWAN Strategic Commitment...................................................... 86

6.7.1 LITTLE SWAN background information .......................................... 87

6.7.2 LITTLE SWAN Strategic Commitment events .................................. 87

6.7.3 The Business Cycle Perspective LITTLE SWAN Commitment ........ 89

Chapter 7 Conclusions............................................................................................ 92

7.1 The Best timing of Strategic Commitment Modle and Performance ....... 92

7.2 Research Conclusions and Implications ...................................................... 96

7.2.1 The Best oppof Strategic Commitment .............................................. 96

7.2.2 The Third Kitchin Cycle ..................................................................... 98

7.3 The factors Affecting the timing of strategic commitment ........................ 98

7.3.1 System and MBO ................................................................................ 99

7.3.2 Strategic Commitment Determination and Diversification .............. 100

7.4 Research Limitations and Future Research Direction ............................. 102


XV

7.4.1 Research Limitations ........................................................................ 102

7.3.2 Future Research Direction ................................................................ 103

References ................................................................................................................. 105

Appendix ................................................................................................................... 109

Acknowledgement .................................................................................................... 172


Degree papers are in the “Xiamen University Electronic Theses and Dissertations Database”. Fulltexts are available in the following ways: 1. If your library is a CALIS member libraries, please log on http://etd.calis.edu.cn/ and submitrequests online, or consult the interlibrary loan department in your library. 2. For users of non-CALIS member libraries, please mail to [email protected] for delivery details.


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硕 士 厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库 - core · 2016-07-05 · strategic commitment at...

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硕士厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库 - core · 2016-07-05 · strategic commitment at...