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RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 25 JUL 2018 Jubilant FoodWorks BUY HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters Continues to amaze! Jubilant FoodWorks (JFL) reported another blowout quarter with revenue growth of 26% to Rs 8.55bn (exp. of 20%) led by SSG of 26% (6.5% in 1QFY18) vs. expectation of 18%. JFL’s IPL activations (higher ad spend) with EDV offer aided in driving volume led growth. The franchise enjoys high operating leverage resulting in EBITDA margin expansion of 489bps YoY to 16.6% (exp. 15.5%). EBITDA/APAT growth was stellar at 79/151% (exp. 59/99%). Post a successful year of profitable expansion, JFL stays committed to add 75 domino’s stores (7% of total stores) during FY19. Mgt’s key focus areas remain 1) More value to consumers 2) Product innovation 3) Better customer experience 4) Investment in technology and 5) Cost optimization. In the last 3 quarters, SSG has contributed >95% of the revenue growth (long-term average is ~50%) which aided in driving stronger operating leverage. EBITDA margin expanded by ~600bps YoY during this period. We believe that with new store openings on the cards and higher SSG base from 2HFY19 onwards margin expansion will be limited. We model ~70bps EBITDAM expansion during FY19E-21E. JFL plans to split its large stores (few in number) since they are running at peak capacity. We note that there is adequate capacity at the back-end to support the volume growth. We model 16/9/9% SSG growth during FY19/FY20/FY21. Such inspiring performance justifies high valuation. We value it at 46x P/E on Jun-20EPS to arrive TP of Rs 1,562 (earlier Rs 1510). We maintain BUY. Highlights of the quarter Stellar 79% EBITDA growth: GM was down by 183bps YoY to 74.5% (exp. -136bps) due to removal of ITC benefits and focus on offering value to the consumer. Focus on cost control and oplev resulted in modest growth in employee/rent to 5/6%. While, higher ad spend drove 21% growth in other expenses. EBITDAM expanded by sharp 489bps to 16.6% (exp. 15.5%). Improving Dunkin’ performance: Dunkin’ continued to reduce its operating losses through closure of loss making stores and change in format (smaller stores). Dunkin‘ losses continue to decline (55bps EBITDAM impact vs. 143bps YoY). Mgt expects Dunkin would break even by the end of FY19. Near-term outlook: With successfully execution in strategy and return to store expansion, we expect modest upside in the near-term. Financial Summary (Rs mn) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E FY21E Net revenue 8,551 6,788 26.0 7,798 9.6 25,461 29,804 36,856 42,573 49,206 EBITDA 1,421 796 78.5 1,278 11.2 2,466 4,464 6,244 7,398 8,664 APAT 747 298 151.0 631.7 18.3 673 2,065 3,408 4,199 5,176 EPS (Rs) 5.7 2.3 151.0 4.8 18.3 5.1 15.6 25.8 31.8 39.2 P/E (x) 274.5 89.5 54.2 44.0 35.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 74.2 41.1 28.9 24.0 20.0 RoIC 12.5 35.4 56.6 71.9 89.3 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 25 Jul 2018) Rs 1,400 Target Price Rs 1,562 Nifty 11,132 Sensex 36,858 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg JUBI IN No. of Shares (mn) 132 MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn) 185/2,689 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 2,451 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 1,499 / 618 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 14.0 26.7 116.0 Relative (%) 7.1 24.5 101.7 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 44.94 FIs & Local MFs 10.22 FPIs 33.74 Public & Others 11.10 Source : BSE Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324 Siddhant Chhabria [email protected] +91-22-6171+7336

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Page 1: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 25 JUL 2018

Jubilant FoodWorks BUY

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Continues to amaze! Jubilant FoodWorks (JFL) reported another blowout quarter with revenue growth of 26% to Rs 8.55bn (exp. of 20%) led by SSG of 26% (6.5% in 1QFY18) vs. expectation of 18%. JFL’s IPL activations (higher ad spend) with EDV offer aided in driving volume led growth. The franchise enjoys high operating leverage resulting in EBITDA margin expansion of 489bps YoY to 16.6% (exp. 15.5%). EBITDA/APAT growth was stellar at 79/151% (exp. 59/99%). Post a successful year of profitable expansion, JFL stays committed to add 75 domino’s stores (7% of total stores) during FY19. Mgt’s key focus areas remain 1) More value to consumers 2) Product innovation 3) Better customer experience 4) Investment in technology and 5) Cost optimization. In the last 3 quarters, SSG has contributed >95% of the revenue growth (long-term average is ~50%) which aided in driving stronger operating leverage. EBITDA margin expanded by ~600bps YoY during this period. We believe that with new store openings on the cards and higher SSG base from 2HFY19 onwards margin expansion will be limited. We model ~70bps EBITDAM expansion during FY19E-21E. JFL plans to split its large stores (few in number) since they are running at peak capacity. We note that there

is adequate capacity at the back-end to support the volume growth. We model 16/9/9% SSG growth during FY19/FY20/FY21. Such inspiring performance justifies high valuation. We value it at 46x P/E on Jun-20EPS to arrive TP of Rs 1,562 (earlier Rs 1510). We maintain BUY.

Highlights of the quarter

Stellar 79% EBITDA growth: GM was down by 183bps YoY to 74.5% (exp. -136bps) due to removal of ITC benefits and focus on offering value to the consumer. Focus on cost control and oplev resulted in modest growth in employee/rent to 5/6%. While, higher ad spend drove 21% growth in other expenses. EBITDAM expanded by sharp 489bps to 16.6% (exp. 15.5%).

Improving Dunkin’ performance: Dunkin’ continued to reduce its operating losses through closure of loss making stores and change in format (smaller stores). Dunkin‘ losses continue to decline (55bps EBITDAM impact vs. 143bps YoY). Mgt expects Dunkin would break even by the end of FY19.

Near-term outlook: With successfully execution in strategy and return to store expansion, we expect modest upside in the near-term.

Financial Summary (Rs mn) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E FY21E Net revenue 8,551 6,788 26.0 7,798 9.6 25,461 29,804 36,856 42,573 49,206 EBITDA 1,421 796 78.5 1,278 11.2 2,466 4,464 6,244 7,398 8,664 APAT 747 298 151.0 631.7 18.3 673 2,065 3,408 4,199 5,176 EPS (Rs) 5.7 2.3 151.0 4.8 18.3 5.1 15.6 25.8 31.8 39.2 P/E (x) 274.5 89.5 54.2 44.0 35.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 74.2 41.1 28.9 24.0 20.0 RoIC 12.5 35.4 56.6 71.9 89.3 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY FMCG

CMP (as on 25 Jul 2018) Rs 1,400

Target Price Rs 1,562

Nifty 11,132

Sensex 36,858

KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg JUBI IN

No. of Shares (mn) 132

MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn) 185/2,689

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 2,451

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 1,499 / 618

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 14.0 26.7 116.0

Relative (%) 7.1 24.5 101.7

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 44.94

FIs & Local MFs 10.22

FPIs 33.74

Public & Others 11.10 Source : BSE

Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324

Siddhant Chhabria [email protected] +91-22-6171+7336

Page 2: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

JUBILANT FOODWORKS : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 2

Quarterly Financials Year to March (Rs mn) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) FY18 FY17 YoY (%) Net Revenue 8,551 6,788 26.0 7,798 9.6 29,804 25,461 17.1 Material Cost 2,178 1,605 35.7 2,004 8.7 7,514 6,160 22.0 Employee Expenses 1,545 1,471 5.1 1,421 8.8 6,041 5,845 3.3 Rent Expenses 840 789 6.5 857 (1.9) 3,157 2,986 5.7 Other Expenses 2,566 2,127 20.6 2,239 14.6 8,628 8,003 7.8 EBITDA 1,421 796 78.5 1,278 11.2 4,464 2,466 81.0 Depreciation 366 462 (20.9) 378 (3.3) 1,559 1,512 3.1 EBIT 1,055 334 216.1 899 17.3 2,905 954 204.4 Other Income 71 30 138.1 127 (44.0) 227 145 56.9 PBT before exceptional 1,127 364 209.7 1,027 9.7 3,133 1,099 185.0 Exceptional item - 90 - - 122 PBT 1,127 274 311.5 1,027 9.7 3,133 978 220.5 Tax 380 125 203.2 346 9.6 1,068 305 250.8 RPAT 747 149 402.8 681 9.7 2,064 673 206.7 APAT 747 298 151.0 632 18.3 2,033 794 155.9 Adjusted EPS 5.7 2.3 151.0 4.8 18.3 30.9 12.1 155.9 As % Of Net Revenue Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (bps) 4QFY18 QoQ (bps) FY18 FY17 YoY (%) Material Cost 25.5 23.6 180 25.7 (20) 25.2 24.2 100 Employee Expenses 18.1 21.7 (360) 18.2 (10) 20.3 23.0 (270) Rent Expenses 9.8 11.6 (180) 11.0 (120) 10.6 11.7 (110) Other Expenses 30.0 31.3 (130) 28.7 130 28.9 31.4 (250) EBITDA 16.6 11.7 490 16.4 20 15.0 9.7 530 Tax Rate 33.7 34.4 (70) 33.7 - 34.1 31.1 300 PAT 8.7 4.4 440 8.1 60 6.8 3.1 370 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Revenue beat was on account of higher SSG of 26% (6.5% in 1QFY18) vs. expectation of 18% GM was down by 183bps YoY to 74.5% due to removal of ITC benefits and offering of better quality product without sufficient price hike EBITDA grew by 79% (exp of 59%) driven by lower rent and employee expense Total number of employees stood at 30,279 (27,539 in 4QFY18 and 27,369 in 1QFY18) Higher other income and lower depreciation led to 151% growth in APAT vs. expectation of 99%

Page 3: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

JUBILANT FOODWORKS : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 3

Net Revenue Same Store Sales Growth

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research EBITDA Performance EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Revenue growth during the last 3 quarters was primarily driven by SSG unlike the historical years which was driven by store expansion Mgt’s medium-long term focus is to 1) Expand Domino’s franchise 2) Breakeven Dunkin’ and improve its profitability Mgt is now focusing on smaller store formats for Dunkin’ (300-650sqft vs. 800-1200sqft) Dunkin’ losses have come down to ~55bps of JFL EBITDA in 1QFY19 vs. 143bps in 1QFY18

0

8

16

24

32

40

48

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

4QFY

131Q

FY14

2QFY

143Q

FY14

4QFY

141Q

FY15

2QFY

153Q

FY15

4QFY

151Q

FY16

2QFY

163Q

FY16

4QFY

161Q

FY17

2QFY

173Q

FY17

4QFY

171Q

FY18

2QFY

183Q

FY18

4QFY

181Q

FY19

Net Sales Growth - RHS

Rs mn%

7.7

6.3

6.6

-2.6

-3.4 -2.4

-5.3

1.9

6.6

4.6

3.2

2.0 2.9

-3.2

4.2

-3.3

-7.5

6.5

5.5

17.8

26.5

26.0

(14.0)

(5.0)

4.0

13.0

22.0

31.0

4QFY

131Q

FY14

2QFY

143Q

FY14

4QFY

141Q

FY15

2QFY

153Q

FY15

4QFY

151Q

FY16

2QFY

163Q

FY16

4QFY

161Q

FY17

2QFY

173Q

FY17

4QFY

171Q

FY18

2QFY

183Q

FY18

4QFY

181Q

FY19

%

(30)(15)0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

4QFY

131Q

FY14

2QFY

143Q

FY14

4QFY

141Q

FY15

2QFY

153Q

FY15

4QFY

151Q

FY16

2QFY

163Q

FY16

4QFY

161Q

FY17

2QFY

173Q

FY17

4QFY

171Q

FY18

2QFY

183Q

FY18

4QFY

181Q

FY19

EBITDA Growth - RHS

Rs mn%

16.7

16.8

14.9

14.8

12.8

12.4

12.2 13

.112

.911

.810

.3 11.5

11.5

9.5 9.7

9.7

9.9 11

.714

.117

.216

.416

.6

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

4QFY

131Q

FY14

2QFY

143Q

FY14

4QFY

141Q

FY15

2QFY

153Q

FY15

4QFY

151Q

FY16

2QFY

163Q

FY16

4QFY

161Q

FY17

2QFY

173Q

FY17

4QFY

171Q

FY18

2QFY

183Q

FY18

4QFY

181Q

FY19

%

Page 4: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

JUBILANT FOODWORKS : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 4

Domino’s Quarterly Store Additions Cities Covered

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research OLO And Mobile Ordering Performance Download of Mobile Ordering App

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, OLO - Online Ordering Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Dominos 10 stores were added (net) during the quarter with 13 additions and 3 closures Dunkin Donuts’ net store additions were flat during the quarter (closure 1, opening 1). Total number of stores stand at 37 Management guiding to breakeven Dunkin’ by FY19 Online ordering (OLO) and mobile ordering will continue to remain an integral part of revenue generation

05101520253035404550

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

4QFY

131Q

FY14

2QFY

143Q

FY14

4QFY

141Q

FY15

2QFY

153Q

FY15

4QFY

151Q

FY16

2QFY

163Q

FY16

4QFY

161Q

FY17

2QFY

173Q

FY17

4QFY

171Q

FY18

2QFY

183Q

FY18

4QFY

181Q

FY19

Number Of Stores At The End Store Addition - RHS

Nos Nos

123

128

132 14

2 150

154 16

7 184 19

6 208 21

822

5 235 24

825

1 260

264

264

264

265

266

266

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

4QFY

131Q

FY14

2QFY

143Q

FY14

4QFY

141Q

FY15

2QFY

153Q

FY15

4QFY

151Q

FY16

2QFY

163Q

FY16

4QFY

161Q

FY17

2QFY

173Q

FY17

4QFY

171Q

FY18

2QFY

183Q

FY18

4QFY

181Q

FY19

2.6 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.36.4

7.5 7.89.0 9.6 9.6

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

4QFY

151Q

FY16

2QFY

163Q

FY16

4QFY

161Q

FY17

2QFY

173Q

FY17

4QFY

171Q

FY18

2QFY

183Q

FY18

4QFY

181Q

FY19

Downloads of mobile ordering app (Mn) QoQ (%)

33% 36

%

41%

36% 41

% 47%

47%

51%

51% 57

%

60%

63% 63

%

28% 30

% 38%

38%

38%

54%

56%

68%

69% 69

%

71% 78

%

78%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

3QFY

16

4QFY

16

1QFY

17

2QFY

17

3QFY

17

4QFY

17

1QFY

18

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

Average OLO contribution to delivery sales

Mobile Ordering sales contribution to overall OLO

Page 5: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

JUBILANT FOODWORKS : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 5

Domino’s Yearly Store Additions Domino’s Yearly SSG

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Domino’s City Coverage Dunkin’ Stores

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

We expect store expansion of 70-75 stores over FY19-20 each We model 16/9/9% SSG for FY19/FY20/FY21

37%

30%

16%

2% 0%3%

-2%

14%16%

9% 9%

-8.0%

0.0%

8.0%

16.0%

24.0%

32.0%

40.0%

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

90105

123150

196

235264 266

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

No. of cities covered (India)

378 46

5 576 72

6 876 1,

026

1,11

7

1,13

4

1,20

9

1,27

9

1,34

9

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

10

26

54

7163

37 37 37 37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

Page 6: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

JUBILANT FOODWORKS : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 6

Gross Margin Trend EBITDA Margin Trend

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Assumptions

FY16 FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Revenue Growth 16.2 5.6 17.1 23.7 15.5 15.6 Same Store Sales Growth 3.2 (2.4) 13.9 16.3 9.0 9.0 Stores At The Beginning 876 1,026 1,117 1,134 1,209 1,279 Store Additions 150 91 17 75 70 70 Stores At The End 1,026 1,117 1,134 1,209 1,279 1,349 As % Of Sales COGS 23.7 24.2 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.4 Employee 23.6 23.0 20.3 18.0 17.5 17.0 Rent 10.5 11.7 10.6 9.5 9.3 9.0 Ad spends 5.2 5.7 5.8 7.7 8.2 8.9 P&F 5.7 5.6 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 Franchise fees 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 EBITDA 11.4 9.7 15.0 16.9 17.4 17.6 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

We model lower GM in FY19-20 as we believe management would continue to focus on higher SSG and improving consumer experience EBITDAM can sustain healthy on account of reducing losses in Dunkin’ and operating leverage

74.8

%

74.3

%

73.9

%

74.0

%

74.9

%

76.3

%

75.8

%

74.8

%

75%

75%

75%

73%

74%

75%

76%

77%

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

18%

19%

18%

15%

13%

11%

10%

15% 17

%

17%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

E

FY20

E

FY21

E

Page 7: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

JUBILANT FOODWORKS : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 7

Changes in Estimates

Rs Mn FY19E FY20E FY21E

Old New Chg (%) Old New Chg (%) Old New Chg (%) Net Revenue 36,106 36,856 2.1 41,193 42,573 3.4 47,242 49,206 4.2 EBITDA 6,302 6,244 (0.9) 7,252 7,398 2.0 8,584 8,664 0.9 EBITDA Margin (%) 17.5 16.9 -56 bps 17.6 17.4 -22 bps 18.2 17.6 -59 bps PAT 3,413 3,408 (0.1) 4,047 4,199 3.7 5,035 5,176 2.8 EPS 25.9 25.8 (0.3) 30.7 31.8 3.6 38.2 39.2 2.7 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Peer Set Comparison

Company MCap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs) Reco. TP

(Rs) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE (%)

FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E HUL 3,786 1,753 NEU 1,709 29.4 35.5 42.7 59.5 49.4 41.1 41.5 34.8 29.4 71.4 73.8 74.4 ITC 3,304 272 BUY 367 10.2 11.2 12.3 26.8 24.3 22.1 16.8 14.9 13.4 38.2 40.3 42.7 GCPL 850 1,248 NR 1,143 26.8 30.8 36.7 46.5 40.5 34.0 35.3 30.2 25.4 20.3 22.9 26.9 Britannia 774 6,444 NEU 6,307 103.2 132.4 158.6 62.5 48.7 40.6 41.9 33.2 27.8 45.7 52.4 56.0 Dabur 654 371 BUY 423 9.4 11.3 13.7 39.5 32.7 27.1 32.6 27.4 23.4 56.8 67.5 77.3 Marico 462 358 BUY 379 8.1 10.4 12.1 44.2 34.4 29.6 32.2 25.4 21.9 45.6 55.7 61.4 Colgate 306 1,124 NEU 1,242 29.0 34.1 39.8 38.7 33.0 25.5 23.1 19.7 15.1 69.7 83.9 100.8 Emami 251 550 BUY 627 14.0 16.6 19.9 39.2 33.1 27.6 28.8 24.4 20.5 27.6 34.0 43.4 Jub. Food 185 1,400 BUY 1,562 25.8 31.8 39.2 54.2 44.0 35.7 28.9 24.0 20.0 56.6 71.9 89.2 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Page 8: BUY Continues to amaze! - HDFC securities · Jubilant FoodWorks . BUY . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters . Continues

JUBILANT FOODWORKS : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 8

Income Statement (Rs mn) FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 25,461 29,804 36,856 42,573 49,206 Growth (%) 5.6 17.1 23.7 15.5 15.6 Material Expenses 6,158 7,514 9,282 10,763 12,475 Employee Expenses 5,845 6,041 6,632 7,454 8,376 A&P Expenses 1,451 1,714 2,820 3,470 4,380 Rent 2,986 3,157 3,516 3,958 4,452 Other Operating Expenses 6,554 6,914 8,363 9,530 10,860 EBIDTA 2,466 4,464 6,244 7,398 8,664 EBIDTA Margin (%) 9.7 15.0 16.9 17.4 17.6 EBIDTA Growth (%) (10.1) 81.1 39.9 18.5 17.1 Depreciation 1,511 1,559 1,587 1,779 1,912 EBIT 954 2,906 4,656 5,619 6,752 Other Income 23 227 430 647 974 PBT 978 3,133 5,086 6,267 7,726 Tax 305 1,068 1,678 2,068 2,549 RPAT 673 2,065 3,408 4,199 5,176 EO items (net of tax) (122) 32 - - - APAT 794 2,033 3,408 4,199 5,176 APAT Growth (%) (27.0) 156.0 67.6 23.2 23.3 EPS 5.1 15.6 25.8 31.8 39.2 EPS Growth (%) (38.3) 206.8 65.0 23.2 23.3

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Rs mn) FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 659 660 1,320 1,320 1,320 Reserves 7,862 9,731 12,148 15,819 20,270 Total Shareholders’ Funds 8,522 10,391 13,468 17,139 21,589 Deferred Taxes 693 550 550 550 550 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 9,215 10,940 14,018 17,689 22,139 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 7,782 7,697 7,699 7,851 8,093 CWIP 598 109 109 109 109 LT Loans & Advances 1,861 2,038 2,282 2,556 2,863 Investments 1,680 3,453 3,953 4,453 4,953 Inventories 587 626 873 1,009 1,166 Trade Receivables 156 151 228 263 304 Cash & Equivalents 1,521 1,232 4,194 7,538 11,651 Other Current Assets 331 320 377 432 493 Current Assets 2,595 2,329 5,673 9,242 13,614 Creditors 3,117 3,868 4,783 5,525 6,386 Other Current Liabilities 985 817 914 997 1,107 Net current Assets (1,507) (2,357) (25) 2,719 6,121 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 10,414 10,941 14,018 17,689 22,139

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Cash Flow Statement (Rs mn) FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E FY21E Reported PBT 1,099 3,133 5,086 6,267 7,726 Non-operating & EO items 220 (290) (430) (647) (974) Interest expenses - - - - - Depreciation 1,511 1,559 1,587 1,779 1,912 Working Capital Change (620) 384 386 326 405 Tax (305) (1,068) (1,678) (2,068) (2,549) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 1,906 3,717 4,951 5,656 6,519 Capex (370) (2,030) (1,589) (1,931) (2,154) Free Cash Flow 1,536 1,687 3,363 3,724 4,365 Investments & Others (155) (2,192) (500) (500) (500) Non-operating Income 23 227 430 647 974 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 1,404 (278) 3,292 3,872 4,839 Interest - - - - - FCFE 1,536 1,687 3,363 3,724 4,365 Share Capital Issuance - - - - - Dividend (164) (165) (330) (528) (726) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (163) (165) (330) (528) (726) EO items (122) 32 - - - NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 2,656 1,277 6,324 7,069 8,478 Closing Cash 1,643 1,232 4,194 7,538 11,651

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 75.8 74.8 74.8 74.7 74.6 EBITDA Margin 9.7 15.0 16.9 17.4 17.6 EBIT Margin 3.7 9.7 12.6 13.2 13.7 APAT Margin 2.6 6.9 9.2 9.9 10.5 RoE 8.3 21.8 28.6 27.4 26.7 RoIC 12.5 35.4 56.6 71.9 89.3 RoCE 13.6 33.1 42.6 40.9 39.9 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 31.2 34.1 33.0 33.0 33.0 Asset Turnover (x) 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 Inventory (days) 8.4 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Debtors (days) 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Other Current Assets (days) 4.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 Creditors (days) 58.8 57.4 56.4 55.9 55.6 Other Current Liab & Prove (days) 14.1 10.0 9.1 8.6 8.2 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (57.5) (53.8) (52.1) (51.1) (50.5) Net D/E (0.2) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) PER SHARE DATA EPS (Rs/sh) 5.1 15.6 25.8 31.8 39.2 CEPS (Rs/sh) 13.4 23.4 33.9 40.8 48.9 BV (Rs/sh) 64.6 78.7 102.1 129.9 163.6 DPS (Rs/sh) 1.3 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 VALUATION P/E (x) 274.5 89.5 54.2 44.0 35.7 P/BV (x) 21.7 17.8 13.7 10.8 8.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 74.2 41.1 28.9 24.0 20.0 OCF/EV (%) 1.0 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.8 FCF/EV (%) 0.8 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.5 FCFE/mkt cap (%) 0.8 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.4 Dividend Yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 18-Jul-17 637 BUY 703 10-Oct-17 740 BUY 818 27-Oct-17 822 BUY 924 13-Nov-17 816 BUY 924 27-Dec-17 891 BUY 1,005 12-Jan-18 964 BUY 1,062 20-Jan-18 1,048 BUY 1,331 28-Feb-18 1,022 BUY 1,331 11-Apr-18 1,215 BUY 1,402 9-May-18 1,280 BUY 1,423 9-Jul-18 1,366 BUY 1,510

25-Jul-18 1,400 BUY 1,562

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Jul-1

7

Aug-

17

Sep-

17

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec-

17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr-

18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Jubilant FoodWorks TP

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Disclosure: We, Naveen Trivedi, MBA & Siddhant Chhabria, PGDBM, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. 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HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report. HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600 HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF C000222657, SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193 Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.

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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330www.hdfcsec.com