bureau of transportation statistics: freight data and decision-making tools talking freight seminar...

Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov

Freight Data and Freight Data and Decision-Making ToolsDecision-Making Tools

Talking Freight Seminar SeriesSeptember 17, 2003

Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D.Senior Research Consultant

Bureau of Transportation Statistics


Outline

Overview of Freight Data and Analysis

Updates of Existing Surveys and Data Programs

GeoFreight – The Intermodal Freight Display Tool


Overview of Freight Data and Analysis

Domestic International


Domestic freight is increasing significantly and planning for future changes in demand a priority

Freight traffic expected to continue to grow from both domestic activity and international trade

Freight related safety concerns are growing

Heightened security concerns and new requirements will impact freight flows

Overview of Key Freight Issues


Overview of Key Freight Issues

Near real-time freight traffic data for Freight operations Security operations at state and sub-

state levels

More timely data for market share analysis


Brief Analytical Trends

Overall Growth Factors of growth Modal Shares


-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Ind

ex (

1975=1.0

)

Domestic Ton-Miles, Gross Domestic Product, and Resident Population

Real GDP

Ton-miles

Population

Ton-miles per dollar of GDP

Ton-miles per capita


Growth in Domestic Freight Ton-Miles (Index 1975=1.0)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Ind

ex

(1

97

5=

1.0

)

Intercity truck

Air carrier

Pipeline

Water

Class I rail


Modal Shares of U.S. Freight Shipments

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Value Tons Ton-miles

Pe

rce

nt

Truck (private and for-hire) Parcel, postal and courier

Water Air (including truck and air)

Rail (includes truck and rail) Pipeline

Other and unknown


Change in Value of U.S. Freight Shipments by Mode

1993 1997 1993-1997

Mode(billions of

1997 dollars)(billions of

1997 dollars)Percent change

All modes 6,335 6,944 10 Air (includes truck and air) 151 229 52 Parcel, postal, or courier 610 856 40 Rail 268 320 19 Pipeline 97 114 17 Water 67 76 14 Truck 4,772 4,982 4 Truck and rail 90 76 -16Truck and water 10 8 -19Rail and water 4 2 -54Other and unknown modes 266 283 6 Source: CFS data only.


Share of Domestic & International Freight (16 billion tons, $10 trillion )

0

20

40

60

80

100

Domestic International

Tons Value

Source: USDOT BTS, U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends, 2003.

Over 16 billion tons of freight move on the nation’s freight system

Domestic accounts for 90 percent of tonnage and 82 percent of value


BTS Domestic Freight Data Sources


BTS Freight Data Sources

Surveys Commodity Flow Survey (CFS)

American Freight Survey (AFS) initiative

Administrative Data Trade and Transportation data Waterborne Commerce Statistics Expanded access to PIERS data

Carrier Reporting Motor Carrier Financial & Operating Data Office of Airline Information


CFS: Status 1993, 1997, 2002 (CTS before these)

Conducted by BTS through the Census Bureau

Provides data on how much freight moves by ALL modes of freight transportation in the United States, including multimodal



CFS: Uses and Relevance Data on private and for-hire trucking for

both intercity and local shipments.

The primary source of nationwide data on the flow of goods, the geography of the movements, and the distance of shipments.

CFS Data used to assess and analyze regional flow density, capacity, congestion, and hazardous material movements.



CFS 2002: Scope and Coverage 50K establishments out of 800K

2002 CFS same industry coverage as previous surveys (manufacturing, mining, wholesale, and selected retail businesses)

Data on commodities shipped, their value, weight, and mode of transportation, as well as the origins and destinations of shipments


Universe of Freight Flows by Sector

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Retail

Services

Construction

Agric (farms&fishery)

Mining

Exports

U.S. Government (Federal, State, and Local) U.S. Households

U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the U.S.

Landbridge traffic

U.S. Mail

Imports

Major Flow in CFS

Minor Flow in CFS

Major Flow not in CFS

Minor Flow not in CFS


CFS 2002: Timeline and Products Data collection: ____ Calendar year 2002 Data processing: ___ Ongoing as collection Analysis: _________ Calendar year 2003 Preliminary results: _ December 2003 Final products: ____ December 2004 Geographic: ______ National level data,

States and selected Metropolitan Areas



BTS Freight Data Sources Though the CFS is the most comprehensive

national and state level data currently available, it is done every five years as part of the Economic Census

Desirable geographic detail not supported by sample design and size

Coverage excludes key freight sectors

Also excludes transportation costs, travel times, and other freight-related variables



Major gaps in knowledge

Value Tons Ton-miles Value per ton MilesSource (billion dollars) (millions) (billions) Value Tons Ton-miles (dollars) per ton

Commodity Flow Survey 6,944 11,090 2,661 81.1 74.9 69.1 626 240

Supplemental estimatesa 1,623 3,710 1,190 18.9 25.1 30.9 437 321

BTS totalb 8,567 14,800 3,851 100.0 100.0 100.0 579 260

Percent

SOURCE: BTS TSAR 2000


CFS: Policy Relevance

National Level Benchmark and trend data for supply

and demand of freight movements Relative roles of each mode, and

intermodal movements Evaluating capacity of system to

serve freight demand Basis for forecasts of freight growth Identifying infrastructure bottlenecks



State and Local Planners, engineers, and executives Forecasting of transportation needs Assessment of facility investment

requirements However, national-level data difficult

to use for state and local planning Geographically-specific domestic

freight data by mode



Greater geographic detail Corridor level demand and use State and local transportation of

international trade Trade related data by industry

groups not only by commodity groups


CFS: Business Relevance

More timely Market segments – demand & supply Specific modal and commodity detail Performance rates – revenue/costs

per ton-mile Real-time and near-real-time data


Detail public-use flow data Through traffic – to, from, within state,

and county-to-county Flows for destinations by mode and

commodity for local areas beyond top MAs

Domestic movements of international trade

State & Local Freight Data Needs


Add-on questions to future national freight program to provide more detail at state and local level

Continuous measurement Assisting state and local data users

with tools, such as FAF and GeoFreight Designing consistent freight data

collection template for possible use at local level

Options for Meeting State and Local Needs


Beyond surveys? costs, burden, timeliness

Data-driven models Information from service providers

Canadian prototype Administrative information from

traffic control and management systems?

Today’s Options on Changing Sources of Freight Data


CFS: Data Accessibility

Confidentiality requirements has limited access and use

Sample size reductions directly impacted geographic specificity

Accessing and retrieving publicly available data needs improvement


Need for collected data to keep track of and keep up with major changes, including:

Overall growth in freight activity Impacts on system capacity, bottlenecks,

and congestion Infrastructure use Changes in logistical and routing patterns Overall performance of freight system

Back to Relevance


Freight Data: Looking Forward

Beyond the 2002 CFS Survey BTS is looking beyond the 2002 CFS

survey and embracing the opportunity to provide improved data to the users

Data that fills the data gaps and better measures changing freight trends

Corridor level data that can be used to obtain estimates for individual ports and intermodal terminals


American Freight Survey Freight data users are calling for an

expanded and more timely freight survey Expanded industry coverage Better geographic detail Detailed micro-data for corridor-level

analysis Public-use data that meets sound

disclosure requirements

Domestic Freight Data: Beyond the CFS


U.S. International Trade & Transportation Data


U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Trade Data Multimodal Trade and Transportation Data

Overall statistics: U.S. Census Bureau Maritime: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and

Maritime Administration Air: U.S. Census Special Tabulations Land: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

“Transborder Surface Freight Data” Available since 1993; Monthly and Annual

Data “Border Crossing and Entry Data”


U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Transborder Surface Freight Data

Data Elements: Method of Transportation Weight (Imports only) Value Commodity Classification (2-digit HS) State and Province in US, Canada and Mexico Port of Entry or Exit Freight Charges Container Code


U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Data Issues

Trade data Weight data--various issues Method of Transportation only at port of entry/exit

(no multimodal data) Method of Transportation definitions and time series

gaps Under-representation of air shipments Concerns about port definitions (Customs ports vs.

physical infrastructure) Concerns about origins and destinations

Accuracy (physical flows vs. “administrative” flows) Lack of metropolitan area level o/d data


U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Critical Questions

What is the magnitude of U.S. international trade, and what are the modal roles? How has this changed over time and why?

What are the geographic patterns of U.S. international trade, and what factors influence these?

How does the U.S. transportation sector impact international trade, and how is it, in turn, impacted by trade?


U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Critical Questions

Which are the key gateways and corridors servicing U.S. international trade flows, and how does trade impact them? Infrastructure, capacity, institutional and

security issues How will already changing trade

relationships and the new security environment affect trade levels, partners, the transport sector, and key gateways and corridors?


Analytical Projects: Major Interpretive Reports

U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends Report

Importance of U.S. International Freight in U.S. Economy

Trends and Shifts in U.S. International Freight: 1990-2002

Trends in U.S. International Trade in Transportation-Related Goods

Trends in U.S. International Transportation Services Trade


U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends

2002 held steady, while exports declined

Mode 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 Total Exports Imports

Water 718 729 199 191 520 538 1.5 -3.9 3.6Air 519 498 251 225 267 273 -3.9 -10.4 2.3Truck 395 398 192 189 204 209 0.6 -1.4 2.5Rail 93 92 23 24 69 68 -0.8 3.2 -2.2Pipeline 26 23 0.5 1 26 22 -14.6 43.4 -15.7Other and unknown 121 117 65 63 57 54 -3.7 -3.2 -4.3Total, all modes 1,873 1,857 731 693 1,142 1,164 -0.9 -5.2 1.9

Percent change, 2001-2002Total trade Exports Imports



Importance of Trade in U.S. Economy Substantial

Growth in Value of U.S. International Merchandise Trade over Three Decades

U.S. International Merchandise Trade and GDP: 1970-2001 (in current dollars)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Ind

ex o

f cu

rren

t d

ollars

(1970=100)

Merchandise trade

GDP



Trade growth impacts U.S. transportation networks and facilities

Movement of international freight contributes to highway congestion, environmental challenges, and safety concerns

Managing and maintaining transportation infrastructure (major gateways and corridors) require large sums of public investment



Shifts in Direction of Trade

Over 75 percent of value of U.S. trade with 15 countries

Nearly one-third with Canada and Mexico

Rising importance of Mexico (2nd ranked) and China (4th ranked)

Top 25 U.S. International Merchandise Trade Partners by Value: 1970 - 2001 (million current $)

Rank 1970 Rank 1980 Rank 1990 Rank 2001 Country Total 2001

1 1 1 1 Canada 380,693

5 3 3 2 Mexico 232,942

2 2 2 3 Japan 184,241

24 10 4 China 1 121,515

3 4 4 5 Germany 2 89,265

4 5 5 6 U.K. 82,195

17 13 7 7 South Korea57,381

15 9 6 8 Taiwan 51,543

7 7 8 9 France 50,191

6 11 9 10 Italy 33,740



Modal Shares by Value and Weight

Over 1.6 billion tons moved in 2001, up 5 percent from 1997

Maritime leads by weight (78 percent) and value (38 percent)

Air accounted for 28 percent of the value and trucks had 21 percent and 11 percent of the tonnage

Modal Shares of U.S. International Merchandise Trade by Value and Weight: 2001

-

20

40

60

80

100

Water Air Truck Rail P ipeline Otherand

unknown

Value Weight


Multimodal Gateways Substantial domestic

transportation activity is needed to move goods to and from U.S. air, land, and sea ports

The nation’s top gateways represent all freight modes

New York’s JFK was the top gateway overall by value

JFK was followed by Port of LA-Long Beach, Detroit border port, and Port of New York-New Jersey


GeoFreight

The Intermodal Freight Display Tool


Bureau of Transportation Statistics Federal Highway Administration

Office of Intermodalism, USDOT


Background GeoFreight is a geographic information and decision

support system An intermodal freight planning and policymaking

tool The enhanced version of the Intermodal Bottleneck

Evaluation Tool (IBET) Created by USDOT agencies:

Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) Office of Intermodalism, Office of the Secretary of

Transportation (OST) Office of Freight Management and Operations, Federal

Highway Administration (FHWA)


The GeoFreight System Helps policymakers and decisionmakers identify

current and potential major freight bottlenecks

Uses a routing model to assign data on freight flows to various transportation network

Displays relationships between freight movements and transportation infrastructure, traffic and delays

Identifies the flows of domestic and international freight across the nation


GeoFreight Can Be Used To

Display information on freight traffic flows by various modes (highway, rail, and water)

Examine freight activity at key access points (highway-seaport, highway-airport, and highway-rail terminal)

Analyze origins and destinations of freight movements on the highway, rail, and maritime networks


Freight Movements on Highway: 1998


Freight Movements on Highway: 2010


Growth in Rail Freight Movement(2010 over 1998)


Intensity of Rail Freight MovementsIn A Select Region


Intensity of Rail Freight MovementsIn A Select Region (cont.)


Multimodal Flows by Highway, Rail

and Water: 2010


Origin/Destination Flow AnalysisFreight Movement on A Selected Segment (1)


Origin/Destination Flow AnalysisFreight Movement on A Selected Segment (2)


Questions? Comments …

Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D.Senior Research Consultant

@ Bureau of Transportation Statistics

[email protected] 202.366.8926

bureau of transportation statistics: freight data and decision-making tools talking freight seminar...

Documents

freight data

data programsgeofreight

domestic activity

gross domestic product

dollar of gdpton

priorityfreight traffic

felix ammahtagoe

new requirements