Building Up a

Solid ArgumentRoberto RoccoSpatial Planning and StrategyTU Delft

Critical Thinking Skills for Urbanism

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Sharp2

Precise3

Critical4

Motivated5

How to build an argument?✦ In every aspect of

life, we need to communicate our ideas and convince people of our views.

✦ In order to do that properly, we need to be able to explain WHY our arguments are valid.

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How to build a strong argument

✦ Approach all issues from the point of view of a sceptic reader/viewer

✦ Use formal logic and other rhetorical devices

✦ Order your arguments for maximum effect.

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The sceptic reader

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When willing to persuade, whose point of view is most important?

Therefore, when writing to persuade, you should adopt a sceptic's point of view. When sceptics read arguments, they raise doubts and questions.

The most persuasive arguments are the ones that anticipate these doubts and questions and respond to them in advance.

Not yours - you are already convinced that your points are

true!

Source: http://www.galeschools.com/research_tools/src/build_arguement.htm

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Use logic!In logic, arguments are propositions that fit together in a structure.

The structure is composed of premises and the conclusions that follow.

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Example✦ The Randstad is a huge and rich polycentric urban

agglomeration located at the Delta of the river Rhine.

✦ River deltas are particularly affected by climate change, because they are characterised by heavy rainfalls, which are bound to become heavier as the climate warms up, and they need to deal with changing tidal regimes (sea levels might be rising).

✦ THEREFORE, the Randstad is particularly sensitive to climate change, and new and inventive solutions must be found to allow urbanisation to thrive.

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But beware!

All the premisses

MUST be true in order for your argument to be

true as well.

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Are these premisses true?✦ The Randstad is a huge and rich polycentric urban

agglomeration located at the Delta of the river Rhine.

✦ River deltas are particularly sensitive to climate change, because they are characterised by heavy rainfalls, which are bound to become heavier as the climate warms up, and they need to deal with changing tidal regimes (sea levels might be rising).

✦ THEREFORE, the Randstad is particularly sensitive to climate change, and new and inventive solutions must be found to allow urbanisation to thrive.

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You need to make your arguments grounded by

authority

HOW?

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Guess...

Research!

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At your presentation or when writing a text...

✦ Make questions (e.g. the research questions are there to direct attention and focus)

✦ Tell a very abbreviated version of your story at the beginning of your presentation (in a text this is called an abstract!), so people know the story line and can follow it better

✦ Have a coherent and solid narrative (a story), without too many holes and where all pieces fit together (that’s the meaning of ‘coherent’)

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Show us the way!✦ Make sure the audience knows the structure of your

story FIRST! (have a slide with the structure or outline the structure in the report)

✦ Remind the audience of the last steps before proceeding

✦ Make sure one step leads to the next in a LOGICAL way

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Illustrate *and design!✦ ILLUSTRATE

(after al, you are a designer!)Use maps, photographs, sound, video: be creative!

✦ Situate yourself and the audience (geographically, but also theoretically!)

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Elements of an argument

✦ The Author’s position (YOUR position)✦ An implicit or explicit world view (are

you a poet, a medical doctor or an urbanist?)

✦ A line of reasoning to support a conclusion

✦ The intention to persuade

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But most important✦ Introduce an

ISSUE or a PROBLEM you want to discuss or develop.

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And make questions!

Make questions. The audience will try to answer them WITH you. They will follow your arguments closely and will make preliminary conclusions in the RIGHT DIRECTION!

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✦ Poor structure

✦ Logical inconsistency

✦ Hidden assumptions

Weakness of argumentation

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But most important

✦ If you do not introduce the issue, the problem or the contradiction you want to tackle, the audience will inevitably think at some point:

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Why am I

listening to this?

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✦Confusing cause and effect

✦Circular argumentation

✦Attacking the character of a person rather than evaluating their reasoning

✦Misrepresentation✦Emotive language

Other causes for weakness

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Circular argument

✦ Circular reasoning is an attempt to support a statement by simply repeating the statement in different or stronger terms.

✦ In this fallacy, the reason given is nothing more than a restatement of the conclusion that poses as the reason for the conclusion.

Source:http://logicandanalysiscourse.com/Definitions.html

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The circular argument

I vow to bring change by making things

different!

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Examples of Circular Argument in Urbanism

✦ Delft is a Knowledge City because there is a lot of knowledge being produced in the city.

✦ Chinese cities are growing fast because more and more people are migrating towards them from rural parts of China.

✦ ‘Problem neighbourhoods’ in the Netherlands are bad because they have several social and spatial problems.

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But let’s first think of CAUSES

It is IMPERATIVE for us to concentrate on causality, because we want to solve the right problems with our designs and plans.

To be able to explain WHY your design or plan will work, you need to understand:

✦ The problem you are tackling

✦ The CAUSES of that problem29

But there are the false correlations

✦ The number of car crimes has increased. ✦ In the past, there used to be a limited

number of car colours from which buyers could choose. Now there is much more variety.

✦ The wider the choice of car colours, the higher the rate of car crime.

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Correlation does not imply causation

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False correlation

A occurs in correlation with B.

Therefore, A causes B.

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Reverse causation (B causes A)

The more firemen fighting a fire, the bigger the fire is.Therefore firemen cause fire.

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation33

A causes B and B causes A (bidirectional causation)

Increased pressure results in increased temperature.Therefore pressure causes temperature.

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation34

They are proportional to each other

The ideal gas law, PV = nRT, describes the direct relationship between pressure and temperature (along with other factors) to show that there is a direct correlation between the two properties.

For a fixed volume, an increase in temperature will cause an increase in pressure; likewise, increased pressure will cause an increase in temperature.

This demonstrates in that the two are directly proportional to each other and not independent functions.

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

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A third factor C (the common-causal variable) causes both A and B

As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply.

Therefore, ice cream causes drowning.

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation36

Determining causation

Intuitively, causation seems to require not just a correlation, but a counterfactual dependence.

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The lazy student

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

Suppose that a student performed poorly on a test and guesses that the cause was his not studying.

To prove this, one thinks of the counterfactual – the same student writing the same test under the same circumstances but having studied the night before

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Classic examples in Urbanism:Find the false correlations

✦ Xi’An is a large city in central China, only recently touched by the Chinese central government-sponsored developmental policy named ‘Go West’.

✦ Xi’An is now experiencing rapid economic growth. However, the city is not fulfilling its capacity to operate as a global city for China’s hinterland.

✦ The aim of this project is to build a business area in the model of La Defense in Paris, so that Xi’An can play its due role as a Chinese global city in the region.

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Classic examples in Urbanism:Find the false correlations

✦ Delft is a Creative City because it is the home of the largest technical university of the Netherlands, as well as several applied sciences colleges and research institutes. Its “cappuccino coefficient” is very high (Florida, 2002). Therefore, its inhabitants enjoy an atmosphere of creativity and invention.

✦ The municipality wants to increase the city’s ‘creative’ profile by connecting the city centre to TU Delft in a more consistent way.

✦ By designing a new connection between the old city centre and the university, the municipality expects to improve the accessibility of inhabitants to knowledge and to give students more access to the ‘cappuccino’ factor.

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Classic examples in Urbanism:Find the false correlations

✦ The neighbourhood called Vrederust in the west of the Dutch city of The Hague is a typical example of post-war modernist development. It is a grey, repetitive, uninspired neighbourhood plagued by social problems. It is one of the so called ‘Vogelaarwijken’, the list of 50 ‘problem neighbourhoods’ in the Netherlands.

✦ The high concentration of non-Western migrants is the reason the place is so violent and unfriendly. The plans of the municipality include the demolition of 2/3 of the existing housing stock to be replaced with new up to date housing.

✦ By improving the living environments, the municipality expects to mitigate the problems in the area and attract new inhabitants.

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Predicting the future?

But how do we investigate causality in a

design project?

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Investigation,my dear Watson!

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✦ Although it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict whether a design or a plan will work or not, it is possible to anticipate some SPATIAL consequences of an intervention by DESIGNING!

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Author: Feile Cao, 2010

Particularity of design

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When explaining a design project

You can start with an inspiring image of your VISION for the area and then explain why it is

the best solution

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This is my project and it is awesome!

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My project is awesome because it has a land use plan and some interventions that will make the

area attractive.

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My project is awesome because I have tackled the problem of connectivity between the centre of the

city and the surrounding satellite towns.

Or

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The first option is an example of

circular argument. In the second option, I offered a

tangible explanation why I think my project is awesome

by highlighting problems that were probably solved

by specific interventions.

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Thanks for listening! Questions?With special thanks to Matt Smith (ChernobylBob) of Gloucester, UK, whose photos adorn these pages.Matt’s photographs are available at: www.flickr.com/photos/chernobylbob/

Prepared by Roberto Rocco, TU Delftr.c.rocco@tudelft.nl

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The End

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