1. 1. Building the Weather to Climate Bridge Across Jamaica: implications for future re-engineering. Teddy Allen Post-Doctoral Scientist The International Research Institute for Climate and Society tallen@iri.columbia.edu
2. 2. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE ? 7 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 12 + 7 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 15 + 7 + 7 + 8 + 13 + 7 7 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 12 + 7 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 15 + 7 + 7 + 8 + 13 + 7 = 8.5 klima (Ancient Greek) = slope, terrestial latitude
3. 3. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican climate (rainfall) Climate knowledge is important: Supports cropping calendars Helps to determine specific crops to plant Hurricane awareness
4. 4. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE WEATHER ? The current state of the atmosphere
5. 5. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican weather (rainfall) What causes rainfall in Jamaica during the early rain season? IMPORTANCE OF EARLY RAIN SEASON: cessation of dry season first stage of seasonal agriculture provides economic prosperity conditions seasonal water levels offsets possible drought What causes it? Can we predict it?
6. 6. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Rethinking Jamaican rainfall early rain season July Upper level westerly winds April early rain season Atmospheric water vapor Panama Low during the early rain season
7. 7. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE May 20, 2011 2011 hr May 20,2011 accumulation of weather events DAILY MONTHLY
8. 8. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE 2012 satellite based rainfall (early rain season) 2012 satellite based accumultaed rainfall (early rain season)
9. 9. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10. 10. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican weather to climate bridge: the Caribbean rain-belt Caribbean Rain Belt (Car-belt) ( an average of all of the ERS rainfall accumulations from 1999-2014 ) Daily rainfall seasonal totals average of seasonal totals climatological rain-belt
11. 11. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change and the Caribbean Rain-Belt end of century projections Sea Surface TemperatureSurface Air Temperature Rainfall warmer air warmer sea surface more available moisture DRIER??? We can expect a change in circulation that weakens the uplift environment.
12. 12. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Seasonal Changes in Projected Rainfall Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec
13. 13. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE How will the climatological bi-modal rainfall pattern and the Caribbean rain-belt change in time? WHATWEEXPECTPOSSIBLFUTURE Farmers and water resource managers may need to adapt to fewer weather events during the wet season.
14. 14. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE CONCLUSIONS Current late spring rainfall climate results from expected weather events caused by a combination of upper level uplift dynamics and lower level moisture steered by the Panama Low The long term average of these weather events produces the Caribbean Rain- Belt End of century projected rainfall suggests about 20% reduction in annual rainfall totals with much greater reduction during the summer months A shift in expectation of weather events must occur to prepare for possible climate change scenarios Fruitful collaboration and discussions with: UWI, Jamaican Meteorological Service, Brian Mapes, IRI, CIMH, CaribSave