Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignment  models  for  

understanding  spa5al  demands  

 The  future  of  na,onal  infrastructure  systems  and  economic  prosperity  Cambridge,  UK.  Mar  27-­‐28th,  2014    Sco7  Thacker  ITRC  WS2:  Understanding  the  current  and  future  risks  of  infrastructure  failure  Raghav  Pant,  Jim  Hall,  ScoA  Kelly,  Pete  Tyler,  David  Alderson,  Stuart  Barr,    

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Introduc5on:  Interdependent  infrastructure  networks  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Introduc5on:  Extreme  weather  impacts  

An   esGmated   £100m   of   damage   has   been  caused  to  the  railway  in  this  winter's  storms  The  Guardian  report  (Feb.  11,  2014)  

 •  350,000  people  without  water  for  

up  to  17  days  (Mythe)  •  40,000  people  without  power  for  

24hrs  •  Near  miss  (Waltham  substaGon)  

500,000  people  •  Damages  approx.  £3.5  Billion  

2007  summer  floods    

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Methods:  Understanding  the  current  and  future  risks  of  infrastructure  failure  

Methodological  development:  •  Vulnerability  analysis  •  Risk  analysis  

Components  of  the  analysis:  •  Network  models  •  Interdependencies  •  Direct  customer  demands  •  Indirect  customer  demands    

To  facilitate:  •  DerivaGon  of  customer  disrupGons  under  

different  hazard  events  •  Economic  disrup,ons  (next  talk!)  •  Current  and  future  scenarios  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Methods:  Assembling  network  data  

•  Great  Britain’s  Integrated  electricity  network    •  Hierarchical  –  bridging  scales  •  180,000  nodes  

Transmission  (400kV,  275kV,  132kV)  

Sub-­‐transmission  (132kV,  33kV)    

DistribuGon  (33kV,  11kV,  415V)  

Large  generaGon*  (Nuclear,  Coal,  Gas)  

Medium  generaGon*  (Gas,  Wind)        

Small  generaGon*  (Wind,  Biomass,  Oil)  

Mul5ple  infrastructure  types:  •  Electricity  •  Gas  •  Liquid  fuels  •  Railways  •  Roads  •  Airports  •  Ports  •  Water  towers  •  Water  pumping  staGons  •  Sewage  treatment  works  •  Solid  waste  faciliGes  •  Telecom  masts  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Methods:  Accoun;ng  for  infrastructure  interdependencies  

Electricity  dependency  on  Gas  -­‐  1)  Large  power  staGons  @  transmission  level  -­‐  2)  Medium  power  staGons  @  132kV  level    

Gas  dependency  on  electricity  (selected)  -­‐  3)  LNG  @  132kV  level  -­‐  4)  Compressors  at  33kV  level  

Gas  transmission  

Electricity    transmission  

Electricity    sub-­‐transmission  

Electricity  distribuGon  

1   2  

3  

4  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Methods:  Incorpora;ng  customer  demands  

Direct  customer  demands  •  Usage  staGsGcs  where  available  •  Networks  are  more  complicated..  

•  Customer  assignment  models:  –  capacity  constrained  resource  allocaGon  model  

•  Network  effects    

Indirect  customer  demands  on  Great  Britain’s  electricity  network  

Electricity  customers  

Sewage  treatment   Telecom  masts   Water  towers  

Railways   Airports   Ports  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Applica5ons:  Infrastructure  cri;cality  hotspots  

ITRC  Infrastructure  Cri5cality  Hotspot  Analysis      An  infrastructure  cri,cality  hotspot  is  a  geographical  loca,on  where  there  is  a  concentra,on  of  cri,cal  infrastructure,  measured  according  to  number  of  customers  directly  or  indirectly  dependent  on  the  infrastructures  in  that  loca,on  

Composite  criGcality  map  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Applica5ons:  Interdependency  impacts  

Electricity  suppor5ng  customers  from  other  sectors:    •  Mapping  indirectly  connected  customers  

(previous  slides)  

•  Integrated  electricity  network  •  99%  of  transmission  network  (636)  •  8%  of  distribu,on  assets  (13,348)        

Electricity  dependency  mul5plier  ra5o  =  •  Ra,o  of  non-­‐electricity  to  electricity  customers  

reliant  on  a  given  asset  

For  Great  Britain’s  electricity  transmission  assets  

Around  (70%)  of  the  major  electricity  assets  could  indirectly  affect,  if  they  were  to  fail,  at  least  three  ,mes  as  many  customers  as  they  directly  serve  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Applica5ons:  Vulnerability  to  extreme  flooding  –  Thames  catchment  example  

0  

2  

4  

6  

8  

10  

12  

14  

16  

Num

ber  o

f  dom

es5c  customers  (million)  

Infrastructure  Customers  at  Risk  of  Disrup5on  due  to  Flooding  of  the  Thames  Catchment  

Indirect  Risk  

Direct  and  indirect  risk  

Direct  risk  

Environment  Agency,  NAFRA  flood  hazard  maps:  significant,  moderate,  low  probability  •  Vulnerability  of  customers  (potenGal  customer  disrupGons)  

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

1   11  

21  

31  

41  

51  

61  

71  

81  

91  

101  

111  

121  

131  

141  

151  

161  

171  

181  

191  

201  

211  

221  

231  

241  

251  

261  

271  

281  

291  

301  

311  

321  

331  

341  

351  

361  

371  

381  

391  

401  

411  

421  

431  

441  

451  

461  

471  

481  

491  

501  

511  

521  

531  

541  

551  

561  

571  

581  

591  

601  

611  

621  

631  

641  

Total  infrastructure  custom

ers  

Millions  

Electricity  transmission  asset  ID  

electricity   Waste  water  treatment  works   water  towers   telecom  masts   railway  staGons   airports  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Applica5ons:  Adapta;on  planning  –  methodology  in  development  

1.  IdenGfy  assets  in  probabilisGc  flood  zones    2.  Rank  assets  based  on  potenGal  economic  impacts  3.  Standardised  costs  for  protecGng  assets  of  a  given  type  4.  Explore  cost  benefit  of  installing  protecGon  measures  for  that  asset  

against  consequences  of  a  flood  related  failure  

Large  poten5al  impacts  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Conclusions:  Main  points  to  take  from  the  presenta;on  

Methods  •  Importance  in  developing  detailed  network  models  •  Explicitly  capturing  interdependencies  •  Direct  and  Indirect  customer  demands  mapped  to  assets  •  Facilitates  economic  impacts  –  coming  next!  

Applica5ons  •  Infrastructure  criGcality  hotspots  •  Insights  into  interdependencies  •  Vulnerability  to  extreme  events  •  AdaptaGon  planning  

Building  interdependent  infrastructure  networks  and  customer  assignments  models  for  understanding  spa5al  demands  

Conclusions:  Any  Ques;ons?  

Sco7  Thacker  -­‐    sco7.thacker@ouce.ox.ac.uk  

For  further  informaGon:  www.itrc.org.uk  

ITRC  WS2:  Understanding  the  current  and  future  risks  of  infrastructure  failure  Raghav  Pant,  Jim  Hall,  ScoZ  Kelly,  Pete  Tyler,  David  Alderson,  Stuart  Barr