building communities along richmond highway · 2019-04-11 · mortgage rates 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50...

Building Communities along

Richmond Highway

Dan Fulton 703.447.7171

[email protected]

Thank you!

• Board of Supervisors

• Planning Staff

• Embark Richmond Highway Task Force

• Edythe Kelleher and the SFDC

Richmond Highway Potential Development

18,000 dwelling units (+13,000 over 2005 plan)

23,500 jobs (+10,740 over 2005 plan)

8.7M SF of non-res development

Multimodal and Sustainable Development

Ecological Spine

Livability Spine

Bus Rapid Transit

Old Town

National Landing

Mosaic District

Richmond Highway Springfield

Town Center

Tysons

Fairfax County’s

New Walkable Neighborhoods

Springfield Town

Center

Mosaic District

The Boro

Penn Daw

HQ2 will add 38K jobs by 2034 1.5x Pentagon employment

Source: Amazon, State of Virginia

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

HQ2 Job Growth by Year

Phase 1 Phase 2

Less than 1 month housing inventory in Arlington or Alexandria

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19

Mo

nth

s Su

pp

ly

Months Supply of Listing Inventory Arlington County, VA Alexandria City, VA

Source: SmartCharts

HQ2 Announced

Arlington asking prices increased 55% after HQ2 announcement

$ 300,000

$ 400,000

$ 500,000

$ 600,000

$ 700,000

$ 800,000

$ 900,000

$ 1,000,000


Median List Price and Median Sold Price ARL List ARL Sold

22% Avg.

74%

HQ2 Announced

Source: SmartCharts

Belle Haven median asking prices increased 24% since November

$ 250,000

$ 350,000

$ 450,000

$ 550,000

$ 650,000

$ 750,000

$ 850,000

$ 950,000


Median List Price and Median Sold Price Belle Haven List Belle Haven Sold

13% Avg.

35%

HQ2 Announced

Source: SmartCharts

Housing Crystal City’s Workers

Secondary – SW DC, Old Town,

Richmond Highway

Primary – Northwest DC, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church

Richmond Highway’s new development will draw HQ2 workers south

Household Growth: Millennials and Baby Boomers add 35K new households

605

3,167

10,943

-876 -1,051

10,458

11,719

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Household Growth within 10 Miles of Richmond Highway 2018 to 2023

Source: ESRI

Renter Demand <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

$35,000 -$49,999 2% 4% 7% 1% 0% 0.5% 0.1%

$50,000-$74,999 4% 15% 2% 1% 1% 0.1% 0.0%

$75,000-$99,999 1% 9% 3% 1% 1% 0.4% 0.3%

$100,000-$149,999 1% 11% 4% 2% 0% 0.4% 0.1%

$150,000-$199,999 0% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0.2% 0.1%

$200,000+ 0% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0.6%

Renter Demand by Age & Income 5-Mile Radius

Average Annual 2018-2023, 5-Miles

Source: Fulton Research, American Community Survey

N=14,730

Rental Demand by Age & Income 5-Mile Radius

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

<$100K $100K+

Average Annual 2018-2023

Source: Fulton Research

For-Sale Demand 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

$35,000 -$49,999 3% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1%

$50,000-$74,999 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0%

$75,000-$99,999 7% 4% 2% 4% 3% 1%

$100,000-$149,999 11% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2%

$150,000-$199,999 5% 5% 4% 7% 3% 0%

$200,000+ 3% 1% 0% 1% 0.3% 0.1%

For-Sale Demand by Age & Income 5-Mile Radius


Source: Fulton Research, American Community Survey

N=9,464

For-Sale Housing Demand by Age & Income 5-Mile Radius

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

<$100K $100K+


Source: Fulton Research

Likely to purchase new homes

Young Singles

Young Couples

Young Families

Empty Nesters

Mature Families

Empty Nesters Retirees

Young Singles

Young Couples

Values and Lifestyles

Mass Transit and BRT

Proximity to employment

Walkability – restaurants, shopping,

parks and trails

Affordability – relative to close-in

neighborhoods

Potential for appreciation

Retirees

Empty Nesters


Close to current home, social circles,

church, doctors


Walkability – restaurants, shopping,

parks and trails

Affordability - Potential to move down


Good schools

Safe community to raise a family


Affordability – most house for the

money

Potential for appreciation

Young Families

Housing Inventory Fairfax County

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

Mon

ths o

f S

up

ply

Listing Inventory – Fairfax County, Virginia

Months of Supply Linear (Months of Supply)

Equilibrium

1.16

Months

Source: Bright MLS

• Rising mortgage rates

• Low home value appreciation

• Low retiree housing turnover

Mortgage Rates

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rates

4.04%

Apr19

Source: Freddie Mac

Rates over 4.5%

slowed home buyers

Rising mortgage rates keeping home owners in place:

• 160bps increase = 25%

to 50% loss of repeat buyers

• Crossing the 4.5% mortgage rate threshold slowed down the housing market last year.

Washington has the lowest home value appreciation among major metros – 4%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (MSAD)

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (MSAD)

Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL (MSAD)

Boston, MA (MSAD)

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (MSAD)

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (MSAD)

Pittsburgh, PA

Philadelphia, PA (MSAD)

Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)

Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (MSAD)

San Francisco, CA (MSAD)

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (MSAD)

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV

Source: FHFA HPI Expanded, 3Q index YOY change

Home Value Growth

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

Home Values Appreciation since 2006

20-city composite Washington MSA Seattle MSA

$458K

-8.4%

$736K

+47%

$526K

+5.2%

Source: Case-Schiller Home Price Index

Metro DC home value appreciation

is among the lowest in the

country

Many who bought in 2006 are still

underwater

Home Ownership – Retirees

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

67-75 76-80 81-85

Hom

eow

ne

rship

Rate

Homeownership Rate for Retirees

b. 1931-1941 b. <=1930

Generations

born before 1930

Generations born after 1930

5-Mile Region

= 1,382

Households

5-Mile Region

1,382 households held off the market

or 2.5 months

supply

Source: Freddie Mac

HQ2-driven housing demand and RH development (supply) will ease inventory

More housing demand

Increases equity for current Home Owners

Lifestyle Communities opening along Richmond Highway

Huntington Club

IDI Group

South Alex

Combined Properties

City Life. Suburban Ease.®

Towns at South Alex

Craftmark

Homes

Kings Crossing

Acquired by

Fairfield Residential

Wrapping Up

• BRT is the signature infrastructure that will tie the corridor together.

• Housing demand from 25-34yo is 2x to 4x the size of other age groups.

• Great neighborhoods in Mount Vernon, Fort Hunt, Franconia and elsewhere will serve much of the family housing needs.

• Empty Nesters and Retirees are 30% of for-sale demand and 14% of renter demand. They demand various housing types

Thank You!

Dan Fulton

703.447.7171 [email protected]

building communities along richmond highway · 2019-04-11 · mortgage rates 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50...

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