building a safer battery - haas school of businessc2m symposium 2014. the battery value chain is...
TRANSCRIPT
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Building a Safer Battery Preventing Lithium-Ion Battery Overcharge
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Tesla Fires in 2013…
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
…Eroded Market Cap, Lawsuits Followed
0
50
100
150
200
250
18 23 28 03 08 13 18 23 28 02 07 12 17 22 27Source: Yahoo Finance
Oct 02 Fire 1
Oct 28 Fire 2
Nov 07 Fire 3
Tesla Stock Price
Day
Pric
e
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
In Transportation, Safety Makes Headlines
WSJ
Toyota’s Recall Costs Could Top $5 Billion
WSJ
Toyota in $1.1 Billion Gas-Pedal Settlement
Bloomberg
GM Sued for $10 Billion Over Losses on 27 Million Cars
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Safety Matters Our overcharge
protection solution
= Safety
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Three Key Takeaways
Innovative battery safety technology
Large, growing market
Demand for safety = customers willing to pay
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Part 1:
Innovative battery safety technology
Large, growing market
Demand for safety = customers willing to pay
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Anatomy of a Battery
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Anatomy of a Battery
cathode anode
current collectors
separator
electrolyte
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Charging a Battery Should Be Safe…
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
…But Batteries Can Also Overcharge
Uh oh.
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
…But Batteries Can Also Overcharge
Uh oh.
BIG uh oh.
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Our Technology Can Prevent Battery Overcharging
10 µm
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
charging
overcharging
Our Technology Can Prevent Battery Overcharging
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
charging
overcharging
Our Technology Can Prevent Battery Overcharging
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
current technology our innovation
Reversible
Response time
Tied to electrical system
Our Technology Can Prevent Battery Overcharging
Cost
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Part 2:
Innovative battery safety technology
Large, growing market
Demand for safety = customers willing to pay
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
$ 7 6 . 4 B n .
Consumer 24%
Grid & Industrial
46%
Automotive 30%
$17.6 Bn.
Consumer 60%
Grid & Industrial
15%
Automotive 18%
Lithium-ion Batteries: Market Evolution
2013 Consumer applications driven by High capacity-Low size batteries
2020 Industrial & Automotive applications driven by Durable and Efficient batteries
CAGR = 23.3%
Separator Market = 12% of Battery Market
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Consumer Acceptance
BATTERY COST
Life
= 2
to 5
Yrs
.
Battery Cost – $ 20-200
Consumer Applications
Grid & Industrial Applications
Battery Cost – More Than $20 K
Life
= M
ore
Than
10 Y
rs.
Willingness To Pay Increases when Battery is Costly and Life is High
Automobile Applications
Life
= 5
to 10
Yrs
.
Battery Cost – $ 5-20 K
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Part 3:
Innovative battery safety technology
Large, growing market
Demand for safety = customers willing to pay
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
The Battery Value Chain Is Complex
RAW MATERIAL SUPPLIERS
BATTERY COMPONENT
MANU-FACTURERS
CELL MANU-FACTURERS
BATTERY PACK ASSEMBLERS
ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
DESIGNERS END USERS
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Separator & Cell Manufacturers Will Be Our Customers
RAW MATERIAL SUPPLIERS
BATTERY COMPONENT
MANU-FACTURERS
BATTERY PACK ASSEMBLERS
ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
DESIGNERS END USERS CELL MANU-
FACTURERS
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
End Users Will Be Our Marketing Target
We influence
here
Impose safety specification in Requests for Proposal
RAW MATERIAL SUPPLIERS
BATTERY COMPONENT
MANU-FACTURERS
BATTERY PACK ASSEMBLERS
ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
DESIGNERS END USERS CELL MANU-
FACTURERS
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Battery Cell Cost
Current Cost
Cost Analysis
Approx. $500/kWh
Other Cell Costs
(61%)
Processing Cost (22%)
Material Cost (17%)
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Other Cell Costs
(61%)
Battery Cell Cost
Current Cost
Processing Cost (22%)
Cost Analysis
Battery Mgmt
System Cost
Material Cost (17%)
- Overcharge Protection Unit - Current/Voltage Sensing - Module Control - Thermal Mgmt
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Material Cost
Other Cell Costs
Other Cell Costs
Processing Cost
New Cost Current Cost
Cost Analysis
Battery Mgmt
System Cost
Battery Cell Cost
Potentially Replace
Part of BMS
Overcharge Protection Unit
Material Cost
Other Cell Costs
Processing Cost
BMS Cost Other
BMS Costs
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Path to Market
Lab-scale Technology
Growing Market
How to Deliver?
Speed to Market Cost to Market
Start-up
Licensing
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Path to Market
Lab-scale Technology
Growing Market
How to Deliver?
Speed to Market Cost to Market
Start-up
Licensing
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Next Steps
Enhance sales position: More cost / performance data
Non-dilutive capital: Government:
Non-recurring engineering projects:
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
In Conclusion…
Innovative battery safety technology
Large, growing market
Demand for safety = customers willing to pay
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Thank You!
Cleantech to Market Team
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Louis Raynaud MBA 2015
Takahiro Tanaka (Team Lead) MBA 2015
Noah Deich MBA 2015
Rohit Abraham MBA 2015
Leah Rubin PhD Chemistry
Latisha Paw U PhD Chemistry
Dr. Guoying Chen Staff Scientist
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Appendix
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Electrospinning Set-up
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Dipping method
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Additional Materials
Product Function Process Price Company Source
poly(3-butylthiophene)
electroactive polymer
both $90/g Rieke Metals Rieke
polyethylene oxide inert polymer electrospinning $290-330/kg Sigma Alrich,
Acros Organics Website,
Sci Finder
polyvinylidene difluoride inert polymer electrospinning $70-80/kg Alfa Aesar Sci Finder
chloroform solvent both $10-30/L
Alfa Aesar, Aggregated,
Cresent Chemical, Spectrum Chemical
Website, Sci Finder
dimethyl-formamide solvent both $10-20/L AAPPTec Chemical,
Acros Organics, Spectrum Chemical
Sci Finder
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
BMS Cost Information
MicroHEV HEV-HP PHEV & EV
Current and Voltage Sensing ($) 40 70 100
Module Controls ($/module) 10 10 20
Disconnect Units
Auto Disconnect ($) 50 70 200
Manual Disconnect ($) 15 15 15
Thermal Management System
Baseline Thermal System ($) 30 80 120
Additions to AC System ($/kW) 40 40 40
Heating System ($/kW) 20 20 20
Source: P.A. Nelson, K.G. Gallagher, I. Bloom, and D.W. Dees, “Modeling the Performance and Cost of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric-Drive Vehicles,” Argonne National Laboratory
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
-7.00%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Pric
e C
hang
e 20
13-2
0
CAGR 2013 -20 Automotive
Industrial
Intensity of Competition
Lithium-ion Batteries: Market Landscape
Highly Price Sensitive
Highly Competitive
High Customer Loyalty
Very Sensitive To Technical Changes
Consumer
Grid
Source: Analysis of the Global Lithium-ion Battery Market: Growth Opportunities and Market Outlook, Vishal Sapru, Frost & Sullivan, 10 Jun 2014
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Automobile Industry
Eroded 45% of Market Cap + $1.1Bn. In Settlements
Toyota’s Faulty Gas Pedal
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Automobile Lithium-ion Battery Separator Market Size & Outlook
Market Size CAGR = 53% $ 87 M $ 782 M
9X Growth
2014
2020
Source: Global analysis of Electric Vehicle Lithium-ion battery chemicals and materials market, Camilo Castaneda, Frost & Sullivan, 19 May 2014
Price Outlook Stable
Competition Moderate – 8 Players
Customer Loyalty High
Technical Change Moderate
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Building a Safer Battery C2M Symposium 2014
Pain point
Automobile Applications Miles Per Charge Price Per KWH Life
Grid Based Applications
Life Price Per KWH
Consumer Applications Hours Per Charge Price Per KWH Size
Industrial Applications Life Price Per KWH