budget presentation final - print [read-only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0%...
TRANSCRIPT
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February 11, 2015Governor Rick Snyder, CPALt. Governor Brian Calley
Budget Director John Roberts
MichiganGrowing Stronger
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Michigan Economy Coming Back Strong• More than 300,000 new private sector jobs since December 2010• Unemployment lowest since 2002; lowest unemployed since 2001• Home sales and values on the rise
2
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Creating More and Better Jobs
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Change in Michigan Wage and Salary Employment from Previous Year (thousands of jobs)
Note: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014‐2017 estimates are 1/16/15 Consensus Forecast. 1/20/15.
Avg.
Consensus Forecast
‐112.7‐76.8 ‐71.0
‐16.9 ‐9.3
‐63.2 ‐58.7‐105.7
‐291.6
‐7.2
88.5 81.5 71.228.0
54.0 54.0 51.0
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Dropping Unemployment Rate
4
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
5.6% Dec 14
6.3% Dec 14
Source: MI Bureau of Labor Market Information and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1/9/2015)
14.2%Aug 09
10.0%Oct 09
Michigan
U.S.
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Rising Personal Incomes
Michigan Personal Income Year‐Over‐Year % Change
Note: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2014‐2017 estimates are 1/16/15 Consensus Forecast. 1/20/15. Consensus Forecast
1.1% 0.6%
2.8%3.4%
2.6% 2.6% 2.6%1.6%
‐4.4%
2.3%
5.9%
3.9%
1.4%
4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3%
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• Identify special challenges• Pay our debts• Manage our expenses
o Tightening our belto Regular expenseso Proper maintenanceo Needed improvements
• Save for the future• Return any extra resources
Budget Responsibly Like a Family
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• Changes in revenue estimateso Legacy tax credits
• May ballot proposal
Two Major Budget Challenges
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• Huge awards made in last decade; impact thru 2032• Clear lack of transparency on benefits and timing• Replaced with transparent program in 2011• Action steps:
o Better visibilityo Understanding long‐term impact
Legacy Tax Credits
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6.7%($591.7)
4.4%($407.6)
8.5%($813.6)
‐4.3%(‐$384.8)
‐3.1%(‐$297.8)
‐4.8%(‐$465.2)
3.8%($431.1) 2.5%
($274.2) 1.1%($122.0)
0.7%($82.7)
0.3%($41.1)
0.3%($30.7)
‐8.0%
‐6.0%
‐4.0%
‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
‐‐‐‐‐ 25.1% 50.9% 57.4% 98.1% 80.8%
($171.0) ($476.6) (‐$173.3) (‐$251.8) (‐$350.9)
General FundSchool Aid Fund
GF & SAF Revenue Estimate Error Rates($ in millions)
Negative = Actual < Estimate When Budget Enacted (FY15 & FY16: Jan ‘15 Est. < May ‘14 Est.)Positive = Actual > Estimate When Budget Enacted (FY15 & FY16: Jan ‘15 Est. > May ‘14 Est.)
% of Error Due to MBT
![Page 10: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
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MEGA vs Business Development Program
MEGA BDP• Averaged $1.8 billion in awards each year
from 2008‐2010• Impact on General Fund very difficult to
forecast• Funded via “credit card” to be paid in
future years• Variable effectiveness: in certain years far
fewer jobs realized than forecasted• $14,310 per job1 (job creation)• $74,661 per job1 (retention)
• Averaged less than $100 million in awards each year from 2012‐2014
• Impact on General Fund known with certainty
• Funded via “checkbook”; appropriated and paid for up front
• Strong effectiveness: approximately 100% of jobs forecasted are realized
• $6,818 per job2 (job creation)
1. Present value at a 2% discount rate. Data set contains all MEGA liabilities from 2010‐2031.2. Data set contains all approved MBDP deals from FY2011‐FY15 (as of January 5, 2015).
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Paying Our Debts• 2011 Reforms
o MPSERSo SERS
• Payment plans in place• Better for:
o Our kidso Our retireeso All of us
11
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Reforms Result in Savings
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* When reforms passed in 2011 (SERS) and 2012 (MPSERS)
More than $20B reduction in liabilities
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• Savings from reforms equals $644M or $475 per K‐12 student in FY 16
• FY 16 funding recommendation is $815M or $600 per K‐12 student
• These two actions translate into $1.46B or $1,075 per K‐12 student in MPSERS districts in FY 16
Reforms Result in Savings
13
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Paying for Our Legacy Costs – Schools
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Paying for Our Legacy Costs – Corrections
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More Efficient Government
2015 as of Jan. 3, 2015
• State workforce down more than 15,000 since 2001
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Saving for a Rainy Day
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$1,264
$994
$145
$0$81
$2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2
$365
$506
$386
$498
$611
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Millions
Fiscal Year
The Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) Peaked at $1.3 Billion in FY 2000, but Had to be Rebuilt. FY16 Deposit of $95M One‐time and $17.5 Million Ongoing.
![Page 18: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
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FY15 and FY16 Budget Recommendations
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Solving the Shortfall
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2015 Executive Order• Protects:
o Students K‐12 Higher education Community colleges
o Revenue sharing
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FY 2015 State Agency Reductions$ in millions
Community Health$51 25%
Technology, Management and
Budget$36.8 18%
Corrections$23.7 11%
Human Services$23.5 11%
State Police$23.3 11%
Strategic Fund$22 11%
Treasury$11.1 5%
Education$9.6 5%
Quality of Life agencies
$6 3%
Other$0.3
less than 1%
Total Agency Reductions: $207.3M
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221.8%
‐7.4%2.7%
‐51.0%‐0.1%
‐9.8%0.0%
‐2.2%‐18.1%
‐2.0%‐39.6%
3.5%‐2.1%
172.7%‐1.7%
0.0%‐13.5%
‐3.4%‐3.1%
‐7.6%‐3.7%‐3.7%
‐7.7%
Treasury OperationsTreasury ‐ Michigan Strategic Fund
Treasury ‐ Debt ServiceTransportation
Technology, Management and BudgetState Police
State Building AuthorityState
Natural ResourcesMilitary and Veterans Affairs
Licensing and Regulatory AffairsLegislatureJudiciary
Insurance and Financial ServicesHuman ServicesExecutive Office
Environmental QualityEducation
CorrectionsCommunity Health
Civil RightsAttorney General
Agriculture and Rural Development
State Agency GF Spending Down 6.5% from 2015
Total Agency increases = $11.2 millionTotal Agency increases = $11.2 million
Total Agency decreases = ‐$572.6 millionTotal Agency decreases = ‐$572.6 million
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2016 Strategic Investments• Education
o Pre to 3• Skilled trades• Public safety• Health and human services
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Continuing Education as a Priority
24
$10.7B+ $1.2B$11.9B
* Does not include federal funding, adult education funding or preschool funding
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Education: Focus on Student Growth• Foundation allowance: $108M ($75 per‐pupil)• At risk funding increase: $100M• Distressed district rehabilitation: $75M• Technology infrastructure grants: $25M• Third grade reading initiative: $25M
25
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Building Blocks for Success: Pre to 3
26
• Previous early childhood investments are paying off• Additional investments to do more
o Create commission outside of state governmento Home visitso Parental involvemento Diagnostic testingo Teacher trainingo Measure for success
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Strengthening Higher Education
27
• Community collegeso Operations: $4.3M, 1.4 percent increaseo MPSERS: $17.2M increaseo Adult part‐time student grants: $6M
• Universities/student financial aido Operations: $28M, 2 percent increaseo MPSERS: $2.7M increaseo Tuition restraint at 2.8 percent
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Prioritizing Skilled Trades• FY16 Investments: $35.6M, including:
o Career and Technical Education Early/Middle College programs: $17.8M
o Skilled Trades: $10M increase; $20M totalo Student outreach, career planning and dual enrollment
enhancements: $4.3M• Existing related programs: $47.6M
Total investment: $83M
28
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Prioritizing Public Safety
29
• $7.7M to train 75 MSP troopers• $1M to train 10 motor carrier officers• $3.4M to resolve sexual assault cases
o $1.7M to process DNAo $1.7M for prosecution
• $500,000 to help prevent sexual assaults on campuses
• $1.5M related to drug policy initiative
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Improving Access to Health and Human Services
30
• Expand Healthy Kids Dental program to three remaining counties based on age (0–8 year olds): $21.8Mo Will cover an additional 210,000 children in Wayne, Oakland
and Kent countieso Total coverage: 822,000 Michigan children
• Adult dental: $23Mo Increases access to dental care for all existing adult Medicaid
recipients, pending timely rebid• Mental Health Commission recommendation for residential
treatment for youth: $1.9M
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• Enrollment in Healthy Michigan Plan (HMP) has exceeded projections in both FY14 and FY15
• Currently, 536,000 Michigan residents have health coverage through HMPo Helping 1 out of 20 Michiganderso Nearly 350,000 primary and preventive care visits
• Since April 2014 Michigan providers have received an additional $1.4B in federal Medicaid reimbursement
Ensuring A Healthier Michigan
31
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Supporting Our Local Communities
32
• Constitutional revenue sharing: $23.8M increase• Ongoing statutory funding for eligible municipalities that
meet accountability/transparency requirements• County revenue sharing and incentive programs, added two
counties: $3.5M increase
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Tackling the Tough Choices
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• Health Insurance Claims Assessment (HICA) is a tax on paid health insurance claims made by third party administrators, health insurance carriers and self‐insured entitieso Medicare and Medicaid fee‐for‐service are exempt
• HICA was enacted to ensure federal match dollars for Medicaid and was designed to produce $400M in revenue
• HICA is not producing the needed revenue to guarantee our full Medicaid match, requiring action on our part
• To ensure receipt of all federal dollars, the recommendation moves HICA from 0.75 percent to 1.3 percent
![Page 34: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
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• Technologyo $70M in IT Investment Fund Portfolioo Includes $7M to strengthen cybersecurity efforts
• State infrastructure: $31M for building maintenanceo More than $108M GF has been invested over the last three
years for state agency facilities and the Capitol complex
Efficient State Government Saving Taxpayer Dollars
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Investing in Cybersecurity
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• The cyber threat is realo Over 730,000 attacks per day
• Problem is only getting worse o Multiple states falling victim to large data breaches o Attacks increasing on a daily basis
• $7M increase recommended to proactively protect our computer systems, networks, and sensitive citizen data
![Page 36: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Investing in Infrastructure
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• Replaced collapsed roof
• Capitol dome restoration
• HVAC upgrades• Fire suppression,
smoke detectors, carbon monoxide detectors in hospital patient rooms
• Upgrades at various armories
![Page 37: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Years of neglect has created a transportation safety crisis
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![Page 38: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
OF BRIDGES ARE IN NEED OF REPAIR, IMPROVEMENT OR REPLACEMENT
27%
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48%
48% of major roads in Michigan's largest cities are in poor or mediocre condition
![Page 40: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
The Costs
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![Page 41: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
MEDICALCOSTS
PRODUCTIVITYCOSTS
WORKPLACECOSTS
TRAVELDELAYS
INSURANCECOSTS
LEGALCOSTS
$ 8.1 Billion
$
The Cost of Crashes
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• Michiganders pay $2.5 Billion per year in vehicle operation costs ‐ $357 per driver
• Roadway conditions are a significant factor in approximately 1/3 of traffic fatalities
The Cost of Bad Roads
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• Brutal Michigan winters• Poor approach to repair• Industry and heavy trucks• Lack of investment
How Things Got So Bad
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MN$315
IL$235
OH$235 WI
$231 IN$187 MI
$174
Highway Investment Per Capita
![Page 45: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
4
Trunkline Pavement Condition Forecast
Based on Current Investment, 2015‐2027
Percent Good or Fair Condition
90%
70%
50%
30%
Statewide
National
Regional
Local
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
![Page 46: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
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• Increasingly dangerous conditions• Massive cost of road reconstruction
Cost of Doing Nothing
![Page 47: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
• Fixes Michigan’s crumbling roads• Protects schools and local government• Provides tax relief for low income residents• Competitive fuel prices
47
Ballot Proposal Impact
![Page 48: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Sales Taxes Replenish Schools and Local Governments
All State Fuel Taxes Usedfor Transportation Purposes
+ $1.3 BFor Transportation
+ $300 MFor Schools
+ $94 MFor Local Governments
![Page 49: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
6604
2249
49
1079
2938
Miles of Reconstruction
MilesRehabilitation
Ballot Proposal Impact
Reconstruction and Rehabilitation2015‐2027
ProposalCurrent
![Page 50: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Ballot Proposal Impact on Debt Service
2015‐2027
CurrentPlanUnderProposal
$200 M
$100 M
$02015 2027
![Page 51: Budget Presentation Final - Print [Read-Only]...22 1.8% ‐7.4% 2.7% ‐51.0% ‐0.1% ‐9.8% 0.0% ‐2.2% ‐18.1% ‐2.0% ‐39.6% 3.5% ‐2.1% 172.7% ‐1.7% 0.0% ‐13.5% ‐3.4%](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050605/5fac1dc8c46b2900772767c3/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
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Video
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Accelerating the Comeback
52
• Ongoingo Transportation: Comprehensive funding solutiono Healthy Kids Dental o Education K‐12: School retirement system Universities/Community Colleges/Skilled Trades
o Public safety o Local government funding
• One‐timeo Grow reserves
Ballot proposal
Expanding to three remaining counties
Funding retirement obligations Increased
investment
Added funding for new counties
Growing to more than $600M
Running another recruit school
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Questions?
Thank you.
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