bsef 2013 energy okan yardimci

PANEL DISCUSSION AN OUTLOOK FOR GAS SUPPLY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION BY 2020

Okan YARDIMCIEnergy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey

IV International Black Sea Economic Forum24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

Okan YARDIMCI

Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020

IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

Education

2004 (B.Sc) Petroleum and Natural Gas Eng. (METU)

2008 (MBA) Business Management (Atılım U.)

2008 (Exec. P.) Public Utilities (Michigan State U.)

Cont. (LL.M. Can.) Law (PennState U.)

Cont. (Ph.D Can.) Finance (Hacettepe U.)

Work Experience

2004-2006 Reservoir Engineer, Perenco (International Oil Company)

2006-Cont. Energy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey

Other

ERRA Lecturer (Advanced Training Course: Price Regulation & Tariffs)

Member of Energy Experts Society, Member of Youth Leader Society

Interests; Global energy markets, Turkey energy markets, regulation, tariffs, oil and natural gas prices, LNG, econometrics, finance, arbitration, international law, conflict of contract law, leadership, diplomacy, politics

Okan YARDIMCI

Okan YARDIMCI



Turkey

Import

Domestic Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

bil

lio

n c

ub

ic m

eter

s

Natural Gas Consumption of Turkey

~ 450 billion cubic meters

Annual consumption forecast for 2013; 47.6 BCMTURKEY NATURAL GAS SUPPLY - 2011 (44,5 BCM)

Russia; 57%Iran; 18%

Azerbaijan; 9%

Algeria LNG; 9%

Nigeria LNG; 3%

Spot LNG; 2% Domestic Production; 2%

Market liberalisation

Okan YARDIMCI



Turkey

Place of the Turkey's Natural Gas Consumption in the World

0,2% 0,3% 0,6% 1,2%0,004% 1,0%

47

43

32

2724

0

10

20

30

40

50

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Coun

try ra

nkin

g by

cons

.

0,0%

0,3%

0,6%

0,9%

1,2%

1,5%

Prop

ortio

n of

the T

urke

y con

s.

Okan YARDIMCI



State owned comp. BOTAŞ was the monopoly on;

Import & Wholesale, Transmission, Distribution, Storage, Sale, Determination of

wholesale prices, retail prices, connection fees

Imported Gas

Residential

Domestic Gas

Power

Industry

Distribution

BOTAŞ

LNG Facility

Natural gas market structure before 2002

Okan YARDIMCI



Domestic Production

Import (LNG & Pipeline)

Wholesale(LNG, CNG, Pipeline)

Transmission(LNG & Pipeline)

Eligible Cons.

Non-Eligible Cons.

Export

SUPPLY WHOLESALE NETWORK CONSUMPTION

Distribution

LNG Facilities & Underground Storage

Natural gas market structure after 2002

Okan YARDIMCI



IMPORT WHOLESALE TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION

COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS STORAGE EXPORT

15 + 30 spot LNG 42 1 pipeline + 24 LNG 64

75 4 4

Total number of licences; 259

Natural gas market activities

Okan YARDIMCI



BOTAŞ is required to transfer its import contracts until its market share decreases to 20%The first contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 30th of November 2006.

Import

Company Transferred amounts (million cm3)

1 Shell Enerji A.Ş. 250

2 Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş. 750

3 Enerco Enerji San. ve Tic. 2500

4 Avrasya Gaz A.Ş. 500


1 Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş. 1750

2 Akfel 2250

3 Kibar 1000

4 Batı Hattı 1000

The second contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013.


1 SOCAR 1200

Azerbaijan contract release to SOCAR completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013.

Okan YARDIMCI



Import contracts

CONTRACTSQUANTITY

(BCM/YEAR)

RUSSIAN FED. West-1 6 (Private Companies)

RUSSIAN FED. West-2 8 (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Companies)

RUSSIAN FED. Blue Stream 16 (BOTAŞ)

IRAN 10 (BOTAŞ)

AZERBAIJAN 6.6 (5.2 BCM BOTAŞ, 1.2 BCM SOCAR)

TURKMENISTAN 16 (not in operation)

ALGERIA (LNG) 4 (BOTAŞ)

NIGERIA LNG) 1.2 (BOTAŞ)

AZERBAIJAN 16 BCM/ SHAH DENIZ 2 PROJECT(Trans Anatolia Pipeline-TANAP agreement was signed in 2012)

Okan YARDIMCI



Iran

10 BCM

Azerbaijan

6,6 BCM (5,4 BCM BOTAŞ,

1,2 BCM SOCAR)

+ 16 BCM (SHAH DENIZ 2)

Turkmenistan

(Agreement)

16 BCM

Russian Fed.(West)

8 BCM (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Comp.)

Spot

(LNG)

BOTAŞ+Private Comp.

Algeria+Nigeria

(LNG)

4 BCM + 1,2 BCM

Greece

0,75 BCM

Russian Fed.

(Blue Stream)

16 BCMRussian Fed.(West)

6 BCM (Private Comp.)

Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage

LNG Gasification Terminals

Underground Storage

Planning LNG Gasification Terminals

Turkey natural gas system

Okan YARDIMCI



EGEGAZ Aliağa LNG Terrminal

Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 6.0 Billion m3

(Tank Capacity; 2 X 140.000 m3 LNG tanks)

Daily Maximum Sent Out : 16.4 million m3/day

BOTAŞ Marmara Ereğlisi LNG Terminal

Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 8.2 Billion m3

(Tank Capacity; 3 X 85.000 m3 LNG tanks)

Daily Maximum Sent Out : 18.7 million m3/day

TPAO Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities

Type : Depleted gas fields (Değirmenköy and Kuzey Marmara Fields)

Total Storage Capacity : 2.7 Billion m3

Maximum Sent Out : 14.5 million m3/day

Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage

LNG Gasification Terminals

Underground Storage

Planning LNG Gasification Terminals

LNG facilities & storage

Okan YARDIMCI



BOTAŞ

EGEGAZ

LNG facilities

Okan YARDIMCI



LNG TRADE

Source : International Gas Union, World LNG Report

The role of Turkey in the global LNG trade

Okan YARDIMCI



Missing sea…

Source : DNV

Okan YARDIMCI



Crazy project

Source : DNV

Channel Istanbul

Thank You!

Okan YardımcıEnergy Expert, Turkey+90 532 798 85 [email protected] [email protected]

Akçakoca, Black Sea, Turkey

Okan YARDIMCI



WORLD’S 2ND LARGEST NATURAL GAS MARKET

WORLD’S LARGEST OIL AND GAS RESOURCESNATURAL TRANSIT

ROUTE

Turkey as a natural transit country…

Okan YARDIMCI



Black Sea gas potential…

in the Turkish part of the Black Sea;

2006 - Studies at Sinop Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil, Petrobras)

2007 - Gas Exploration at Akçakoca Region (TPAO, OMV, Foinavon, Tiway) – yearly production is 0,7 billion m3

2008 - Studies at Kastamonu & Samsun Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil)

2009 - Studies at Zonguldak Region (TPAO, Chevron)

2011 - Studies at Istranca Region (TPAO)

2013 – TPAO & Shell Agreement, Studies will start in 2014

Okan YARDIMCI




TPAO’s Istranca-1 offshore well tested natural gas. The well, drilled in the Western Black Sea Licence AR/TPO/3920, has a water depth of 85 meters and a total depth of 3650 meters. Istranca-1 well test proved the existence of hydrocarbons in the Turkish Black Sea outside the 12-Mile territorial waters. The well test between 13-18.September.2012 recovered gas from Middle Miocene aged sandstones.

Okan YARDIMCI




OMV, Total, Repsol studies in the Bulgaria part of the Black Sea.

Shell, Exxon Mobil, Petrom studies in the Ukraine part of the Black Sea.

Vanco studies at Prekarçinki, Ukraine.

Rosneft, Exxon Mobil studies at Tuapse, Russia.

Romania’s Gas Exploration (Neptun Block, 70.7 meters of net gas pay, preliminary estimates 42-84 billion m3 – 3 to 6 times Romania’s gas consumption) (OMV Petrom, Exxon-Mobil) (Deepwater Champion)

Chevron’s Studies about shale gas on Romania's Black Sea coast

Studies at Crimean peninsula

Okan YARDIMCI



Natural gas price components

Components of Household Gas Price (7,950 Euro/GJ)

Value Added Tax; 15,3%

Private Consumption

Tax; 3,6%

Storage Fee; 0,8%

Average Distribution Fee;

2,9%

Average Transmission

Fee; 3,2%

74,3%; Gas Price + Wholesale

Profit

fiscal legislationfiscal legislation

oil

pri

ce

Around 1/5 of the total annual consumption is using the storage facility.0,8% is the average ratio.

Okan YARDIMCI



Small-Scale LNG

bsef 2013 energy okan yardimci

Business

black sea region

bcm bota

natural gas prices

natural gas market structure

wholesale lng

bcmspot lng bota

bcm socarturkmenistan16

okan yardimci energy