BRIEFING BY THE DFA ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN KENYA

Presentation on the latest developments in Kenya

13 February 2008

by

Deputy Director General Mxolisi Nkosi

Branch: Africa Bilateral

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INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

• On 27 December 2007 Kenya held its ninth General Election since On 27 December 2007 Kenya held its ninth General Election since independence in 1963 and the fourth since multi-party politics.independence in 1963 and the fourth since multi-party politics.

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• Run up to the elections – campaign process enthusiastic, contest close, in all pre-Run up to the elections – campaign process enthusiastic, contest close, in all pre-election polls Raila Odinga leading slightlyelection polls Raila Odinga leading slightly

• Sporadic incidents of pre-election violence seen in some areas of KenyaSporadic incidents of pre-election violence seen in some areas of Kenya

• Election day regarded as a success, turnout high about 70%Election day regarded as a success, turnout high about 70%

• Election process declared to have been free and fair but the count and tallying process Election process declared to have been free and fair but the count and tallying process said to be flawedsaid to be flawed

ELECTORAL PROCESSELECTORAL PROCESS

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ELECTORAL PROCESS contELECTORAL PROCESS cont

• The manner in which the tallying of the result was handled raised The manner in which the tallying of the result was handled raised concernsconcerns

• ODM declared themselves to be the winners of the electionODM declared themselves to be the winners of the election

• 30 December 2007 Mr. Kivuitu (the Chairman of ECK) announced 30 December 2007 Mr. Kivuitu (the Chairman of ECK) announced the results of election.the results of election.

• Mr Mwai Kibaki, the winner was sworn in an hour later as Mr Mwai Kibaki, the winner was sworn in an hour later as President of Kenya. President of Kenya.

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ELECTORAL PROCESS contELECTORAL PROCESS cont

• Violence and chaos has since erupted all over KenyaViolence and chaos has since erupted all over Kenya

• The ODM was already troubled by the discrepancy in the results The ODM was already troubled by the discrepancy in the results between the legislative and presidential electionsbetween the legislative and presidential elections

• The outcome of the legislative election was 99 seats for ODM and The outcome of the legislative election was 99 seats for ODM and 43 for PNU out of 210 seats which is 47% and 20% respectively. 43 for PNU out of 210 seats which is 47% and 20% respectively.

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VIOLENCE AND HUMANITARIAN SITUATIONVIOLENCE AND HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

• There have been killings, rapes, displacement of peoples,There have been killings, rapes, displacement of peoples,

and destruction of property especially in Rift Valley where clashes and destruction of property especially in Rift Valley where clashes over land are continuingover land are continuing

• Almost 1000 people died and over 300,000 displacedAlmost 1000 people died and over 300,000 displaced

• Killings of ODM MP’s Mugabe Were and David Kimutai Too on 28 Killings of ODM MP’s Mugabe Were and David Kimutai Too on 28 January 2008 and 31 January 2008 respectively, caused the January 2008 and 31 January 2008 respectively, caused the opposition to view the murders as part of a plot to reduce their opposition to view the murders as part of a plot to reduce their majority in parliamentmajority in parliament

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FACTORS FUELLING THE CRISISFACTORS FUELLING THE CRISIS

• The problem of violence is not new; during the advent of The problem of violence is not new; during the advent of multiparty democracy in the era of President Moi, Kenya had multiparty democracy in the era of President Moi, Kenya had experienced the same problem; 1992,1997,2002 experienced the same problem; 1992,1997,2002

-- In 1992 over 2000 people were killed and over 300.000 In 1992 over 2000 people were killed and over 300.000 displaceddisplaced

-- After the 1997 elections, violence erupted once again in After the 1997 elections, violence erupted once again in the Rift valley. Government blamed the disturbances on the Rift valley. Government blamed the disturbances on

the the refusal of the Kikuyu and Luo communities to accept the refusal of the Kikuyu and Luo communities to accept the outcome of the electionsoutcome of the elections

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FACTORS FUELLING THE CRISIS cont.FACTORS FUELLING THE CRISIS cont.

• According to observers the current violence in Kenya is more According to observers the current violence in Kenya is more complex than simply an ethnic problem. Other underlying root complex than simply an ethnic problem. Other underlying root causes contributing to the current situation are:causes contributing to the current situation are:

1. 1. Landlessness / dispossessionLandlessness / dispossession

2. 2. Centralisation of PowerCentralisation of Power

3.3. Unequal distribution of national resources between the Unequal distribution of national resources between the different provincesdifferent provinces

4.4. Uneven developmentUneven development

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• The international Community has made a number of attempts to The international Community has made a number of attempts to intervene and resolve the current crisis in Kenya without successintervene and resolve the current crisis in Kenya without success

Some of the missions include: Some of the missions include:

1.1. The UK and World Bank Mission in NairobiThe UK and World Bank Mission in Nairobi

2.2. The Commonwealth Observer Mission The Commonwealth Observer Mission

3.3. All Africa Conference of ChurchesAll Africa Conference of Churches

4.4. US Mission by Ms. Jendayi Frazer US Mission by Ms. Jendayi Frazer

5.5. The African ForumThe African Forum

6.6. African Union Chair Mr John KufuorAfrican Union Chair Mr John Kufuor

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

• Before the arrival of Mr John Kufuor in Kenya, there were intense Before the arrival of Mr John Kufuor in Kenya, there were intense behind the scenes activities by mediation missions mentioned behind the scenes activities by mediation missions mentioned previously. They were pushing for an agreement between PNU previously. They were pushing for an agreement between PNU and ODM and the negotiators agreed on a document entitled and ODM and the negotiators agreed on a document entitled Principles of AgreementPrinciples of Agreement

• On the 08 January 2008 AU Chairperson Mr John Kufuor carried On the 08 January 2008 AU Chairperson Mr John Kufuor carried on with the same mediation efforts in order to sign the negotiated on with the same mediation efforts in order to sign the negotiated Principle of Agreement documentPrinciple of Agreement document

• In fact PNU denied that any negotiations had taken place and In fact PNU denied that any negotiations had taken place and argued to have seen the document for the first timeargued to have seen the document for the first time

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

• The Principles of Agreement document was ultimately not signedThe Principles of Agreement document was ultimately not signed

• 21 January 2008 Mr Kofi Annan and his team of Eminent African 21 January 2008 Mr Kofi Annan and his team of Eminent African Personalities including former President of Tanzania Mr Benjamin Personalities including former President of Tanzania Mr Benjamin Mkapa and Ms Graca Machel arrived in Kenya to continue with Mkapa and Ms Graca Machel arrived in Kenya to continue with mediation effortsmediation efforts

• ODM brought their conditions to the table:ODM brought their conditions to the table:

President Kibaki to step down as President of KenyaPresident Kibaki to step down as President of Kenya Formation of an interim government Formation of an interim government Re-run of the Presidential electionsRe-run of the Presidential elections President Kibaki and his team to accept international mediation President Kibaki and his team to accept international mediation

effortsefforts

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

• PNU positions were:PNU positions were:

-- That President Kibaki should be recognised as the duly That President Kibaki should be recognised as the duly elected president of Kenyaelected president of Kenya

-- That the current mediation efforts are regarded as That the current mediation efforts are regarded as merely a merely a dialogue for peacedialogue for peace

-- Those aggrieved by the outcomes of the elections Those aggrieved by the outcomes of the elections should should address their concerns to the courtsaddress their concerns to the courts

• On the 27 January 2008 Kofi Annan gave each side a new On the 27 January 2008 Kofi Annan gave each side a new document detailing the process of ‘Kenya National Dialogue and document detailing the process of ‘Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation’Reconciliation’

• This present document is the basis of current negotiationsThis present document is the basis of current negotiations

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

• On 1 February 2008, Mr Cyril Ramaphosa joined the On 1 February 2008, Mr Cyril Ramaphosa joined the mediation team at the invitation of Mr Kofi Annanmediation team at the invitation of Mr Kofi Annan

• On the On the 04 February 2007 Mr Ramaphosa withdrew due to 04 February 2007 Mr Ramaphosa withdrew due to the reservations expressed by the PNU governmentthe reservations expressed by the PNU government

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

• On Friday 01 February 2008 both parties agreed on the following:On Friday 01 February 2008 both parties agreed on the following:

• The main elements of the document are:The main elements of the document are:

Short term issues to be resolved between 7 – 15 daysShort term issues to be resolved between 7 – 15 days-- Immediate action to stop violence and restore Immediate action to stop violence and restore fundamental rights and libertiesfundamental rights and liberties

-- Immediate measures to address the humanitarian crisis, Immediate measures to address the humanitarian crisis, promote reconciliation, healing and restorationpromote reconciliation, healing and restoration

-- How to overcome the current political crisis arising from How to overcome the current political crisis arising from the disputed presidential pollthe disputed presidential poll

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

Long term issues to be resolved with in a period of one year:Long term issues to be resolved with in a period of one year:

-- Constitutional and institutional reforms; Constitutional and institutional reforms;

-- Tackling poverty inequality as well as combating Tackling poverty inequality as well as combating regional development imbalances;regional development imbalances;

-- Undertaking Land Reform;Undertaking Land Reform;

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

Long term issues:Long term issues:

-- Tackling youth unemploymentTackling youth unemployment

-- Consolidating national cohesion and unityConsolidating national cohesion and unity

-- Addressing transparency, accountability and impunityAddressing transparency, accountability and impunity

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CURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS contCURRENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS cont

STATUS OF MEDIATION AT THE MOMENT

• Talks are progressing well

• On 12 February 2008 the mediation team briefed parliament about progress with respect to the talks

• Today both parties have gone on a retreat which is due to conclude on 14 February 2008

• The outcome of the talks will be known on Friday 15 February 2008 in the meantime a news blackout has been imposed

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ECONOMIC IMPACTECONOMIC IMPACT

• Political crisis has had a devastating impact on the Kenyan Political crisis has had a devastating impact on the Kenyan economy and its neighbouring countries:economy and its neighbouring countries:

• Kenya provides the platform for relief operations in Somalia, Kenya provides the platform for relief operations in Somalia, Sudan and is a key anchor for the long term stabilization of Sudan and is a key anchor for the long term stabilization of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi.Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi.

• The regional consequences of this crisis are severe. The The regional consequences of this crisis are severe. The economies of the Kenya and the Great Lakes region as well as economies of the Kenya and the Great Lakes region as well as the road and railway infrastructure on which neighbouring the road and railway infrastructure on which neighbouring countries including Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the eastern part of countries including Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Southern Sudan rely, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Southern Sudan rely, are disrupted.are disrupted.

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ECONOMIC IMPACT contECONOMIC IMPACT cont

• Lost revenue; Tourism; Ability to attract FDI affected; Lost revenue; Tourism; Ability to attract FDI affected; Customs duty; Disrupted transportation of goods and Customs duty; Disrupted transportation of goods and deprivation from access to basic commodities such as fueldeprivation from access to basic commodities such as fuel

• One month ago the Kenyan Treasury made an official

announcement that losses to the economy were about R 6 billion

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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION

• Kenya was the most stable country in the region and the turmoil has impacted negatively on regional stability

• Played a key role in the resolution of the Sudan Conflict

• Played role in talks regarding the Somali question

• Recently hosted talks between the DRC and Rwanda which resulted in the Nairobi Communique

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SOUTH AFRICAN POSITIONSOUTH AFRICAN POSITION

• South Africa call for an immediate end to the violence and the South Africa call for an immediate end to the violence and the restoration of normal civilian life in Kenyarestoration of normal civilian life in Kenya

• South Africa supports initiatives to resolve the Kenyan Crisis South Africa supports initiatives to resolve the Kenyan Crisis through negotiationsthrough negotiations

• South Africa supports the position of the African Union and South Africa supports the position of the African Union and therefore the mediation process of Mr Kofi Annan and his panel of therefore the mediation process of Mr Kofi Annan and his panel of Eminent African PersonalitiesEminent African Personalities

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THANK YOU