0.2

.4.6

.8Pr

edic

ted

prob

. of h

avin

g vo

ted

Leav

e

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Allow more immigrants? (0 - many fewer .................. 10- many more)

under £15k 15-29k30-59k 60k+Refused to answer

Brexit Vote, Immigration, and Income (BES 2017)

0.2

.4.6

.8Pr

ed. p

roba

bilit

y of

vot

ing

Trum

p

increase a lot increase little same reduce little reduce a lot

Preferred immigration level

under $15k 15-30k30-50k 50-65k65-90k 90-150kover 150k

Immigration Attitudes and Trump Voting (US Whites, ANES)

35%45%

57%68% 73%

50%39%

28%21% 18%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Much looserrestrictions

Slightly looserrestrictions

The currentrestrictions are

about right

Slightly tighterrestrictions

Much tighterrestrictions

'Family over Everything' (18-29s only)

Agree Disagree

YouGov Profiles Data, August 18, 2019 (UK)

21.7%33.9% 36.3% 41.4% 47.1%

59.0% 56.9% 52.7% 47.5%38.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Much looserrestrictions

Slightly looserrestrictions

The currentrestrictionsare about

right

Slightlytighter

restrictions

Much tighterrestrictions

% A

gree

‘I usually go to same place on holiday‘ & Immigration Attitudes, 18-24s, Upper/Mid Class

AgreeDisagree

YouGov Profiles Data, August 18, 2019 (UK)

12

34

5

Imm

igra

tion

(1=R

educ

e a

lot,

5=St

ay s

ame)

str. disagree disagree neither agree str. agree

View on Death Penalty

lowest income low-med incomemedium income med-high incomehighest income

Views on Death Penalty, Income, and Immigration (BES 2015-18)

R2=.301, N=18,899

Immigration Numbers Affect Salience

Source: Dennison, J. and A. Geddes (2018). "A Rising Tide? The Salience of Immigration and the Rise of Anti‐Immigration Political Parties in Western Europe." The Political Quarterly, 27 November 2018.

Immigration Salience is associated with Populist Right Support

Austria

Belgium

Switzerland

Germany

Denmark

Finland

France

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

SwedenBritain

IcelandPortugal

Spain

Italy0

1020

3040

50H

ighe

st P

opul

ist R

ight

pol

l or v

ote

(%)

0 2 4 6 8 10Muslim Share of Country in 2030, %, (Pew)

country Fitted values

Populist Higher Water-Mark and Projected Muslim Share, W. Europe

R2=.597

Nate Breznau, Europe’s ageing societies require immigration to survive – and that means anti‐immigration politics is here to stay,’ LSE British Politics and Policy blog, Dec 21, 2017

Chart based on 17 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. Data from OECD, Global Bilateral Migration and ParlGov.

“A White American who identifies with her group and its history supports a proposal to reduce immigration. Her motivation is to maintain her group's share of America's population. Is this person: 1) just acting in her racial self‐interest, which is not racist; 2) being racist; 3) don’t know.”

91.383.9

73.2

58.3

26.1

11.25.5

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

White Clintonvoter, with

postgrad degree(N=23)

White Clintonvoter, with

degree (N=62)

White Clintonvoter (N=142)

Minority Clintonvoter (N=84)

White Trumpvoter, with

postgrad degree(N=23)

White Trumpvoter (N=197)

White Trumpvoter, less than

high school(N=110)

% sa

ying

'rac

ist'

Racist for white person to want less immigration for ethnocultural reasons?

Source: YouGov‐Birkbeck‐Policy Exchange urvey, Dec 7‐8, 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2008 2012 2016

Share of White Americans wanting less immigration, by Party Identity

Democrat Republican

Source: 2016 American National Election Study