Brexit Scenario Planning Workshop

Agenda8:30 – 8:40am – Welcome from Professor Alex de Ruyter, Director for the Centre for Brexit Studies.

Brexit? Where are we now?

8:40 – 9:00am – Identification of key concerns for businesses.

9:00 – 9:40am – Group work: Identify the best case, worst case and most likely scenario from your chosen concerns.

9:40 – 10:00am – Feedback on scenarios.

10:00 – 10:20am – How to move best case and worst case closer to the most likely scenario for your business.

10:20 – 10:30am – Closing remarks and question and answer session.

WelcomeWhat is the Centre for Brexit Studies?

• Looking beyond the reasons as to why the UK decided to leave the European Union

• Stakeholder engagement with constituencies throughout the UK

• Assessment of regional disparities within key areas• Sectoral research on the potential impact of Brexit• Involvement with businesses to address key

concerns and how best to prepare• Engagement with local Chambers of Commerce• Research with universities across the UK to

strengthen and support work on Brexit and preparation.

Chequers…• Rejected but EU using as a starting point: NOT the amended bill that has

passed through parliament

• UK effectively wants to remain part of Single Market in goods but not services or people.• Crosses EU red line: compromises integrity of Single Market (4 freedoms)

• “Facilitated Customs Arrangement” was always a bit of a non-starter (complex, bureaucratic and needs trust: arbitration = problem)

• Brexiter Amendments mean:• The UK committed to leaving the VAT area (potentially a headache for some small

businesses)• Facilitated Customs now must be reciprocal in British law (amendment 73) & a CU

requires primary (not secondary) legislation (a’ment 72)• It is now unlawful (clause 37) for NI to form a separate customs area from the rest of

the UK

Deal or no deal…

UK Gov’t - EU Commission Negotiations

Failure. No deal agreed in time.

UK Parliament requests renegotiation No deal

Success! Commission recommends deal to European Council & EC accepts

Ratified by EU Parliament

UK Parliament Accepts deal

UK Parliament forces gov’t tocancel A50 (NUCLEAR OPTION)

UK Parliamentrequestsrenegotiation

EU Rejects request

UK Parliament forces gov’t to cancel A50 (NUCLEAR OPTION)

No deal

EU accepts request

What comes next?• Spectre of HGVs queuing miles up the M20 at Dover

• Fearmongering?...…Or Realistic?

Both!

• Will aircraft be grounded?• Unlikely

• No deal a misnomer• Will have to be agreement(s) of some sort (with EU & other parties)

• Open Skies• Grandfathering of existing provisions

• EU will ensure no Armageddon (France doesn’t want chaos at Calais)• BUT on their terms. No deal scenario = problematic

The way forward?

• Negotiations timetable requires agreement by October 2018 (realistically December) to allow member state ratification

• Still issues pertaining to Irish border, EU citizens’ rights and “divorce settlement”

• Impact of “hung parliament” and UK Government reliance on DUP…

• Difficult for the gov’t to reconcile ERG/hardcore with Soubry, Clarke, Grieve etc.• Amendments have REALLY scuppered Chequers

• Leadership election in Autumn?

• No confidence?

What are the key concerns for businesses?

• Retaining talent during the Brexit process

• Free trade and Customs Union arrangements

• Issues around supply chain

• Other issues identified through the HLSM SWOT analysis?

Best case, worst case and most likely scenario

Best Case

• Continued membership of EU bodies and standards.

Most Likely

• Continued membership of EU bodies and standards but with some amendments and added cost.

Worst Case

• No membership of EU bodies and standards, resulting in difficulties when selling product in EU countries.

Scenario Feedback

What are our best, worst and most likely scenarios?

How to make this the most likely scenario for my business

What can I do to make the best case and worst case closer to the most likely scenario for my business?

These scenarios can now be used a guide to action.

Action Action

Closing remarks and Q&A

ContactsProfessor Alex de Ruyter Craig WalshDirector Programme ManagerCentre for Brexit Studies Higher Level Skills MatchBirmingham City University Birmingham City UniversityEmail: Alex.deruyter@bcu.ac.uk Email: Craig.walsh@bcu.ac.uk

Web: www.bcu.ac.uk/centre-for-brexit-studies Web: www.bcuadvantage.co.uk/hlsmTwitter: @BCU_CBS Twitter: @BCUAdvantage