DOES JAPAN NEED NUCLEAR TO REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS?

Jessica Lovering Senior Energy Analyst

JAPAN’S EMISSIONS IN CONTEXTPe

r Cap

ita C

O2

Emis

sion

s (m

etri

c to

ns)

6

10

14

18

22

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

USAGermanyJapanFranceChina

France

Per C

apita

Ele

ctri

city

Pro

duce

d (k

Wh/

pers

on)

0

2250

4500

6750

9000

2000 2013

Fossil Low-Carbon

Germany

2000 2013

Japan

2000 2013

France

Per C

apita

Ele

ctri

city

Pro

duce

d (k

Wh/

pers

on)

0

2250

4500

6750

9000

2000 2013

Fossil Low-Carbon

Germany

2000 2013

Japan

2000 2013

ExportsExports

Exports

AIR POLLUTION & TRADE DEFICIT

Post-Fukushima, Japan increased its use of fossil fuels by 185 TWh (+40%) annually.

This results in roughly 4,000 additional deaths from air pollution, 40,000 serious illnesses, and 1 million minor illnesses.1

First trade deficit in 30 years, due to imported fossil fuels and higher energy prices for manufactured exports.

1. Markandya, A. & Wilkinson, P. Electricity generation and health. Lancet 370, 979–990 (2007).

Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

Mt)

800

925

1050

1175

1300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

Mt)

800

925

1050

1175

1300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

Mt)

800

925

1050

1175

1300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

Mt)

800

925

1050

1175

1300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

Mt)

800

925

1050

1175

1300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy to 2050

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

Mt)

300

550

800

1050

1300

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

ActualAbe 2013 TargetIEA Current PoliciesIEA New PoliciesIEA 450 PPM

THE NEED FOR NUCLEAR

Today

2040

Annual Generation (TWh)0 100 200 300 400

Nuclear Renewables

IEA 450 ppm Target

HISTORIC GROWTH IN LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY

Elec

tric

ity G

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

0

125

250

375

500

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

NuclearRenewables

NECESSARY GROWTHEl

ectr

icity

Gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

0

125

250

375

500

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

IEA 450 PPM Target

GROWTH IN RENEWABLESEl

ectr

icity

Gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

0

35

70

105

140

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

HydroBiomassSolarWindGeo

GROWTH IN RENEWABLESEl

ectr

icity

Gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

0

35

70

105

140

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

IEA 450 PPM Target

LAND USE

1. McDonald, R. I., Fargione, J., Kiesecker, J., Miller, W. M. & Powell, J. Energy sprawl or energy efficiency: climate policy impacts on natural habitat for the United States of America. PLoS One 4, e6802 (2009).

Additional Land Needed for IEA’s 450 Scenario

Nuclear

Hydro

Bio

Wind

Geo

Solar

Square Kilometers0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

CAN JAPAN DECARBONIZE WITHOUT NUCLEAR?

No.

Difficult to decarbonize even with nuclear.

Industry and economy dependent on cheap domestic energy.