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Breaking through to Sustainability

Isagani. R. Serrano

PRRM/Social Watch Philippines

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INTRODUCTION

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The Breaking Point ProjectThe Breaking Point Project

• • one among the significant projects in the

world that hopes address poverty

• • one among the significant projects in the

world that hopes address poverty

BACKGROUND

• • involves group of countries that collectively

or individually could offer solutions

• • involves group of countries that collectively

or individually could offer solutions

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Objectives of the Research

General ObjectiveGeneral Objective

Contribute to the national effort to accelerate progress in MDG achievement

• Critically analyze the changing development context• Review available national data and statistics• Identify gaps and challenges to MDG implementation and propose solutions and alternative strategies for accelerating MDG achievement • Review partnership experiences for delivery and advocacy

Specific ObjectivesSpecific Objectives

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• Interviews and focused group discussions with select informants

• Interviews and focused group discussions with select informants

• Key meetings of researcher with rich sources of information and assessments

• Key meetings of researcher with rich sources of information and assessments

• Desk review of assessment reports of different units of the Phil. government, the UN agencies,

the World Bank, ADB, bilateral donors, non-State organizations, media, business sector

• Desk review of assessment reports of different units of the Phil. government, the UN agencies,

the World Bank, ADB, bilateral donors, non-State organizations, media, business sector

Research Methodology

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• Absence of widespread consultation due to funding constraints

• Absence of widespread consultation due to funding constraints

• Baseline data are moving targets – adjustments in poverty statistics

• Baseline data are moving targets – adjustments in poverty statistics

Limitations of the Research

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• Land Area: 30M has• Land Area: 30M has

The Philippines: A Profile

• Territorial Waters: 200M has• Territorial Waters: 200M has

• Population: close to 100 Million• Population: close to 100 Million

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• Economy: Middle income country valued at Php9.4 trillion or $224.75 (WB, 2011)

• Economy: Middle income country valued at Php9.4 trillion or $224.75 (WB, 2011)

The Philippines: A Profile

• Poverty incidence: more than 3 people of 10 still live below the poverty line

• Poverty incidence: more than 3 people of 10 still live below the poverty line

• Outstanding issues: high poverty/high inequality,

unemployment, environmental degradation, natural vulnerabilities, bad governance

• Outstanding issues: high poverty/high inequality,

unemployment, environmental degradation, natural vulnerabilities, bad governance

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• Cleaning up the government Growing the economy

• Cleaning up the government Growing the economy

Focus of Pnoy Administration

1. MDG 2010

baselines

GovernmentNon-

government

Assessing Progress from 2010

The government’s 4th MDG report: country was ontrack – MDG 1 (reducing food poverty), MDG 3

(gender equality), MDG 4 (reducing child mortality), MDG 6 (combating TB and malaria)

and MDG 7 (ensuring environmental sustainability);lagging on – MDG 2 (universal primary education,MDG 5 (improving maternal health), and MDG 6

(combating HIV and AIDS)

The government’s 4th MDG report: country was ontrack – MDG 1 (reducing food poverty), MDG 3

(gender equality), MDG 4 (reducing child mortality), MDG 6 (combating TB and malaria)

and MDG 7 (ensuring environmental sustainability);lagging on – MDG 2 (universal primary education,MDG 5 (improving maternal health), and MDG 6

(combating HIV and AIDS)

Assessing progress from 2010

SWP assessment showed that Phil. povertysituation is worse in 2010 than in 2000

SWP assessment showed that Phil. povertysituation is worse in 2010 than in 2000

• Focus on MDG 1, 2 and 5 , thru: a.Rural employment thru green jobs

b.Completion of land distribution targets (backlog of 1.1M has)

• Focus on MDG 1, 2 and 5 , thru: a.Rural employment thru green jobs

b.Completion of land distribution targets (backlog of 1.1M has)

2. MDG acceleration and Catch-up

To meet 2015targets, thePhil. has to:

To meet 2015targets, thePhil. has to:

• MDG 2:

a.ensuring that children are able to go to school

b.Providing better benefits package for teachers and other school staff

Proportions of births attended byskilled health personnel remains

far short of target 100% and progresses slowly from 58.8 in

1990 to 74.3 in 2009.

Proportions of births attended byskilled health personnel remains

far short of target 100% and progresses slowly from 58.8 in

1990 to 74.3 in 2009.

3. Where we are now (MDG watch statistics

MMR per 100,000 live birthsincreased to 221 (as of 31

July 2012 Socio Eco. Report)from 95 in 2010 & 97 in 2011

MMR per 100,000 live birthsincreased to 221 (as of 31

July 2012 Socio Eco. Report)from 95 in 2010 & 97 in 2011

Most of the education or MDG 2 indicators are in bad shape

The spike in HIV-AIDS cases is worrisome

*In all, the prospects of achieving MDG commitment isfar from reassuring.

What the President says:

SONA(July 2012)

SONA(July 2012)

Said to be physically stronger than women

Progress in curbing corruption, infrastructure, incremental increases in spending for MDGs and social development

But still, economy relying heavily on remittances of 8 M OFWs (+$20 B/yr) to keep Philippine economy growing

Unemployment is still at 6.9%

Comments to Pnoy

Administration

According to Rigoberto Tiglao of PDI

Employment Under Aquino (in million of Filipinos)July 2010 April 2012 Change

Employed 36.3 37.8 1.5Unemployed 2.7 2.8 0.1Under-employment

7.0 7.8 0.8

Under-employed

9.7 10.6 0.9

According to Benjamin Diokno (Business World, May 8, 2012):

Said to be physically stronger than women

“Poverty has reached new peak during Pres. Aquino III’s watch and involuntary hunger has reached a new peak ever

“

According to former National Treasurer Leonor Briones

Pnoy government’s macroeconomic targets are flawed and financing for MDG were sorely inadequate.

Responses to Questions

UN-CSAC & other CSOsUN-CSAC & other CSOs

Said to be physically stronger than women

Pnoy doing well overall. Some members view CCT as great/very helpful , others see it as merely inadequate.

Others call for a change in development strategy (growth-oriented and dependent in foreign direct investment).

Breaking from Business as

Usual

Pnoy Administration pins itshope on growing the economy thoughunder the tagline of inclusive growth.

Pnoy Administration pins itshope on growing the economy thoughunder the tagline of inclusive growth.

1. What business as usual we’re breaking away from

The problem is less about growing, more about growth that reduces and

reproduces poverty at the same instant, growth that increases inequality and

destroys the environment.

The problem is less about growing, more about growth that reduces and

reproduces poverty at the same instant, growth that increases inequality and

destroys the environment.

UNRISD : economic growth does not guarantee gender equality. It also stated that improvement of women’s lives in countries associated with economic development is not simply a by- product of that development.

The picture of poverty & inequality hardly changed since 2000. the poor lives in rural communities far from Manila – Bicol, Visayas and Mindanao

2. What government did differently

Cleaning-up a corrupt government (tuwid

na daan, wang-wang)

Participatory budgeting – bottom-up budgeting (paggugol na

matuwid)

Increased social spending (e.g. the conditional cash

transfer or CCT)

Accountability to the people, allowing more people’s participation.

Criticisms on CCT

ADB: CCT helps achieve its objective of keeping children healthy and in school.DSWD Sec. D. Soliman: CCT is effective in creating avenues for the poor to have improved quality of life

S.S. De Guzman: CCT encourages dependency, complacency and medicancy. According to her, offering work is better to give them better opportunities and new experiences in life that will help them elevate their lives.

3. What non-state actors (NSAs) did differently

NGOs and social movements long-engaged in advocacy saw a great opportunity for advocacy for basic reforms and win as much political space to advance their causes.

A huge section became conduit of public resources for MDG acceleration (e.g. 4 Ps and CCT).

Some maintain critical distance but continued to engage government around the Phil. Development Plan 2011-2016, budget, NCCAP, etc.

4. What business “un-usual” really matters to the “left-behinds”

Progress on the MDG should be measured in terms of how far it has advanced in achieving social equity and soical justice (MDG-F project: A Citizens’ Agenda for MDG achievement):

a. Dedicated focus by government in its MDG acceleration efforts especially for the poor and vulnerable sectors of the society

b. Agenda for inclusive development through the voices of the “voiceless” and excluded.

Post-Rio+20, Post-2015

Development Framework

Prosperity without growth: is it possible?

Nobel Prize laureate J. Stiglitz stated: widely

unequal societies do not function efficiently and

their economies are neither stable nor

sustainable.

There comes a point when inequality spirals

into economic dysfunction for the

whole society, and when it does, even the rich pay a steep price.

1. Resolving the Paradox

2. Beyond MDGs: According to Social Watch,there is a need to look beyond MDG

The need for reforms which are encompassing and far reaching, such as:

The PDP and PIP must be audited for MDG-fit and sensitivity to climate risks.

MDG sensitive budget should be able to address and rectify the inequalities in society.

Government must ensure people’s participation at all times in all levels.

Education, health, decent work, livelihood, food security for all are a basic minimum in any decent society.

3. Back to basics: sustainability indicators

The Phil. Government has set sustainable development (SD) as the goal of national development policy. How is SD measured?

Challenging the dominant GNP, GDP People use one or other

set of indicators, depending on what ‘s important to them.

To some, infant mortality rate (IMR) is the most sensitive single indicator of a society’s well-being.

Indicators suggested in PA 21 cover the 4 pillars of economy, society, ecology and governance.

Building the future we want

Ending poverty, reducing inequality, enlarging freedoms, honoring human rights, restoring the natural resources, resilient & sustainable communities

Putting MDGs behind usAspiring for higher level of well-being, happiness

Peace & security: getting at the roots of communist & Muslim rebellions, wars and social conflicts

Good governance &People’s participation

Resilient & sustainable communities

What to look into

The structure of growing andwealth creation in the country contradicts the broad-based, inclusive growth. The need to break the current elite and urban-centered structure of power and resources.

There is nothing we can do about our geographic vulnerability. But there is a range of measures we can adopt to adapt to changes in climate and weather.

The high population growth rate makes the country vulnerable and is a reflection of poverty and inequality. How then do we address population growth?

The government, in cooperation with the farmers, NGOs, mass media , schools and national agriculture research system need to prove that agriculture can feed the people and food security can be achieved.

What to look into

Human needs can never be met from an impoverished environment and impoverished human beings. Addressing the vulnerability of our environment is important as growing the economy.

Our forest cover, the marine resources and mineral reserves are at critical conditions. These resources, if restored from its present degraded state could help our nation through worst case scenarios.

The government borrows a lot to fund its MDG commitments. Major anti-poverty programs is financed through foreign debts. Keeping debts at sustainable level and controlling the repayment hemorrhage is central to solving the issue of financing development initiatives.

Corruption in the Phil. has been a constant feature of governance.It is symptomatic of the state of governance. Curbing corruption is therefore a big part of the solution to our development dilemma.

Conclusion

The Pnoy Administration

The President in his first 3 years has been doing

things right, but failing to do the right things that

matter most to sustainability.

Pnoy has not broken away from business-as-usual. It’s more of the same, though

doing it through good governance might lead to

the desired direction.

Breaking through to sustainability will take much, much more than

just righteous governance.

Pnoy’s inclusive growth is not inclusive

development. Including some excluded and left-

behinds is not development for all.

The Pnoy Administration

With huge people’s mandate and support from donors and business community, Pnoy has what it takes to steer the nation to the sustainability path.

Pnoy’s view to curb corruption signals a clean break from a past characterized by abuse of power, culture of impunity, hopelessness and widespread mistrust of government.

Pnoy led by example in cleaning up government in improving public service. People were offered more scope and space for participation.