BREAKING NEWSAugust 24, 2014

THE MAGNITUDE 6.0 NAPA VALLEY, CA EARTHQUAKE

3:20 AM, AUGUST 24, 2014

Strongest in area since the M 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Quake, BUT about

1/30th the energy release

LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

USGS’ SHAKE MAP: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

AUGUST 24: EARLY REPORTS OF SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

• Local damage to buildings and houses, injuries, but no deaths (yet)

• Damage to contents• Loss of Power • Damage to Highway 12• Local fires• Aftershocks

Dr. Walter HaysUS Geological Survey (Retired)

Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

Earthquake Hazards and

Effects

Preparedness Emergency Response

ESSENTIAL PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON EMERGENCY RESPONSE

GLOBAL AN D LOCAL CONTEXTS

PACIFIC RING OF FIRE

Prone to earthquakes and tsunamis

STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE ACTIVITY

At least one event every 30 years0 events in 30 years

YOUR

COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

RISKACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EM RESPONSE• RECOSTRUCTION AND

RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

• MONITORING• HAZARD MAPS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

TYPICAL SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED DURING EM. RESPONSE

• DAMAGE; DEBRIS• COLLAPSE• TRAPPED SURVIVORS• SEARCH AND RESCUE

CLOCK• FIRES• INUNDATION

• EVACUATION CENTERS• EM. MEDICAL• MASS CARE • HAZ MAT RELEASE• INJURIES• DEATHS

THE GOAL:

DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE:

CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

REALITY:

UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

LACK OF EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS

INSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OF

COMMUNITY

INSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OF

COMMUNITY

REALITY:

URGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

URGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

LACK OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITY

INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?

A state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is

sufficient to keep the expected and unexpected effects of an earthquake from

causing a disaster

ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS

• Strong ground shaking• Tsunami wave run up• Liquefaction• Landslides• Aftershocks• Vulnerabilities

STRONG GROUND SHAKING

GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES

AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS INCREASES,

SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

WHAT IS PROTECTION?

A legally mandated state of planning and verified robustness, strength, and

ductility for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent

loss of function

WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE

All of the scripted and unscripted heroic and historic responses during the “race against time” after a quake to save lives

and protect property

KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS

• Know your seimic activity (i.e., Seismicity )

• Know your fault zones• Know your Vulnerabilites

FAULTS

THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE

• San Andreas Fault• 600 Miles long• Source of M8

Earthquakes in 1847 and 1906

THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE

• The Juan De Faca Plate• Subducting beneath

Wash and Oregon • Potential for M9.0

ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES

• Wasatch Fault, Utah• 250 Miles long• Potential source of

M7.0-7.5 earthquake

ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES

• New Madrid Seismic Zone

• Source of four (4) M* earthquakes in 1811--1812

Community preparedness and emergency management response increases as the

community’s capability to anticipate what will increases

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS

A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION TECHNIQUE FOR USE IN ANY EARTHQUAKE-PRONE AREA

SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

FACILITATES ADVANCE PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTING ”INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT” PRACTICES BEFORE PAST MAJOR EARTHQUAKES RECUR AND READINESS WHEN THEY DO

Source: US Geological Survey and many public-private sector partners

HAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISK

INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE

• WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN

• WHERE

• WHY

• HOW BAD

• WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE

• WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN

• WHERE

• WHY

• HOW BAD

• WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

MONITORING

AND RESEARCH

MONITORING

AND RESEARCH

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCENARIO

(developed in 2008)

BASED ON INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE FROM MONITORING, RESEACH, AND POSTEARTHQUAKE STUDIES SINCE

APRIL 1906

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?

• How likely is a damaging earthquake to occur?

• Where and when will it occur?• How big will it be?• How strong will its potential

disaster agents be?

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SCENARIO

• The Bay Area is prone to large earthquakes because it straddles the boundary between two major tectonic plates — the North American and Pacific plates.

SAN ANDREAS, HAYWARD, AND OTHER FAULT ZONES

EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES WORKING GROUP

EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES WORKING GROUP

EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES WORKING GROUP

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SCENARIO

• Much of the stress release happens on the San Andreas fault, but some of it is relieved by the Hayward fault and other smaller parallel faults.

A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, a Hayward fault quake is likely to cause worse societal impacts than a San Andreas quake and be one of the nation's largest natural disasters.

HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

DAMAGEDAMAGE

PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISK

PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISK

COLLAPSECOLLAPSE

LOSS OF FUNCTIONLOSS OF FUNCTION

ECONOMIC LOSS

ECONOMIC LOSS

RISKRISK

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)?

• What kinds of buildings are at risk?

• What kinds of basic, essential, and critical infrastructure are at risk?

• What are the physical vulnerabilities?

A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

• Potentially affecting 5 million people, a Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of University of California, Berkeley.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)?

• What are the social vulnerabilities?

• What is the likely damage distribution?

• What are the HAT ARE THE LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO-ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS?

HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

• Damage will be extensive to buildings and infrastructure.•The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems are expected to take a major hit in a M7.0 or greater earthquake.

HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

• A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.

DAMAGE: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

CONCLUSION

EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE”

ON ANTICIPATING FUTURE IMPACTS