brazil rising. the prospects of an emerging power

7/29/2019 Brazil Rising. the Prospects of an Emerging Power

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Brazl rsgTe prospects o a emergg power

ALFREDO CABRAL & PRiyA ShAnkAR


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FORESiGhT | Brazl rsg: Te prospects o a emergg power

Cotets Preace

About FORESiGhTAbout te autors

Cotext: Brazl a mult-polar world

Seeg sustaed growt

Fosterg socal developmet

Attag teratoal uece

Cocluso

Aexe


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PreaceTe dramatc rse o te emergg ecoomes as bee about ew marets, jobs ad growt. But t as also bee about ew deas.

Te growg power o te Brcs combed wt axet about te sprallg publc debts beg bult up Europe ad te US wll creasgl callege ecoomc prcples, goverg plosopes ad poltcal sttutos advaced b te west. i order

to adapt to ts stg global evromet, wester dscourse ad polc must pa eed to polces ad debates te emergg

powers. Brazl, wt ts successul trasto to democrac ad robust ecoomc growt, s a creasgl uetal actor te

teratoal area but lttle remas ow about te coutrs domestc debates ad developmets. Ts paper outles ow

Brazl as pursued ts ow pat to developmet recet ears, glgtg te e calleges ad dlemmas tat te coutr

ow aces wt regards to ts ecoomc, socal ad oreg polces. Buldg o te dscussos at te Foresgt Brazl smposum

tat too place So Paulo o -t Marc, , te paper argues tat wle Brazl as aceved eormous successes

recet ears, t wll eed to adapt ts pat o developmet to cagg teral ad exteral evromets.

About FORESiGhT

Foresgt s a project tat ams to orge commo utures a mult-polar world. it does ts b promotg greater recogto o te

developmet models ad strategc vsos o te e global powers. Orgased b te Alred herrause Socet, te teratoal

orum o Deutsce Ba, ad Polc networ, te Foresgt project brgs togeter a teratoal etwor o leaders ad experts

to explore te strategc coces tat are ope to deret coutres a mult-polar ad terdepedet world. Followg orums

Moscow, Wasgto DC ad new Del, te Foresgt Brazl smposum was orgased partersp wt te isttute o Appled

Ecoomc Researc (ipea) ad Gact at te iteratoal Relatos isttute o te Uverst o So Paulo.

About te autorsAlredo Cabral s strategc plag ad polc researcer at Polc networ. hs researc ocuses o teratoal poltcal ecoom,

comparatve poltcs ad teratoal relatos.

Pra Saar s a seor project maager ad researcer at Polc networ. her researc ocuses o teratoal aars, goverace,

ad developmet ssues.

www.polc-etwor.et

www.alred-errause-gesellscat.de

Brazl rsg: Te prospects o a emergg power | FORESiGhT


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Brazl a mult-polar world

Te cotext

We ca, act, be oe o te most developed ad least uequal atos te world.

Dlma Rousses bele ad commtmet er augural address as Presdet o Brazl earler ts ear s dcatve

o ow ar te coutr as come over te last two decades.1

i te earl s, Brazlas could ave expected prces or dal cosumer goods to double ever ew wees ad

te value o ter savgs to decle b more ta a tousad percet due to perato. Te coutr ad just

elected ts rst post-mltar regme ad prospects or uture prospert dd ot loo brgt oe o te worlds most

uequal socetes. Ater two decades o democratc goverace ad acal stablsato, tere s a great degree

o ope ad etusasm about Brazl. ideed, te smbolsm o a actor-worer wtout a ormal educato, ad a

emale ormer mltat a deepl patrarcal socet, beg elected to te gest ecelos o power dcates te

extet to wc Brazla socet ad polt ave caged.

i recet ears, as ecoomc growt rates ave t record gs ad over trt mllo Brazlas ave joed te

mddle class, optmsm about te coutr as abouded. i a surve, % o Brazlas saw atoal ecoomc

codtos as good, te secod-gest o a coutr te world.2 Wt ts abudace o lad, reswater, ood

ad eerg, ad ts comparatve reedom rom regoal cocts ad tesos, Brazl s peraps best-placed o te

emergg powers terms o te arra o opportutes ad lac o costrats beore t.

Te coutrs popular ad successul poltcal leaders, cludg bot ormer presdets, Cardoso ad Lula, ave

elped t aceve macroecoomc stablt, socal cluso ad teratoal promece. i recet ears, Brazl as

evolved a dstctve developmet model, oe tat combed g ecoomc growt wt come redstrbuto

ad equalt reducto. Ts model as met wt cosderable success as as te coutrs creased teratoalactvsm. ideed, Brazls teral ad exteral polces ave bee part o a attempt to orge a atoal project

(projeto de ao) to secure sustaable developmet.

Brazls pat o developmet ad global role ormed te bass o te dscussos at te Foresgt Brazl smposum.

Te ssues debated cluded sustaable growt, socal coeso, ad te ature ad mpact o te rse o te

emergg powers. Te dscussos dcated tat tere are stll sgcat rss ad calleges tat Brazl corots

rom crme ad publc securt to educato ad rastructure. Te coutrs success, alog wt strog leadersp

. Address o Dlma Vaa Rousse, Presdet o te Republc - iaugural Speec to Cogress, Jauar . Pew Global Atttudes Surve, Sprg


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ad sesble polc decsos, as also bee te result o a avourable evromet, cludg rsg commodtes

demad rom Asa ad te relatve retreat o te Uted States rom Sout Amerca over te last decade. ideed, t

appears tat Brazls success, wle remarable, ma stll be precarous.

Ts paper bulds o te dscussos b aalsg Brazls approac to eac o te tree terled polc areasdebated at te smposum. From our aalss t appears tat as bot global ad teral codtos cage, Brazl

wll corot dfcult coces ad urter eed to cage, reorm ad buld ts developmet model, evolvg more

coeret ad tegrated strateges. Ad gve te ature o global terdepedece, te coces Brazl maes wll

mpact ot ol ts ow ctzes but also oters aroud te world.



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Seeg sustaed growt

i , te Brazla ecoom grew b .% to become te worlds sevet largest, surpassg several advaced

ecoomes. Ts was dcatve o ts stregt ad robustess, oe o te ew to survve te global acal crss

relatvel uscated. ideed, as growt as become creasgl rapd (rsg rom .% ), te coutr s

emergg as a pvotal teratoal ecoomc plaer.3 Te recet ds o o-sore ol ave added to ts abudace

o atural resources, leadg to muc optmsm ad etusasm about growt ad prospert Brazl.

however, sgcat calleges cotue to persst cludg adequate rastructure, gaps educato ad slls,

ato ad te rsg value o te coutrs currec, te real. Brazl ote ras poorl compettveess, ova-

to ad ease o dog busess rags.4 Te lac o sufcet rastructure, partcularl roads, ports ad arports

s a major urdle mprovg ecoomc perormace as s te slls gap. Accordg to a recet report, Brazl aces a

sortage o mllo slled worers over te ext ears, puttg dager prospects or sustaed growt.5

i seeg to tacle tese calleges ad aceve prospert, tere are tree e sets o ter-related dlemmas

tat Brazla polcmaers ad busesses are lel to ace. Te rst s regardg te role o deret sectors te

ecoom; te secod o te extet o opeess ad ocus towards te global ecoom; ad te trd s te role o

deret actors te ecoom.

Te Brazla ecoom exbts a cosderable degree o dverst wt damsm servces (curretl ts largest

sector), dustr ad mauacturg, ad prmar products cludg agrcultural produce ad atural resources.

however, recet treds, partcularl exports, dcate tat te role o prmar products as bee rsg, especall

wt creasg demad rom Ca ad oter emergg ecoomes. Brazl s a major exporter o orage juce, soa,

sugar ad ro ore. Wle t as beeted eormousl rom a commodtes boom over te last decade, ucertates

rema over ow to best aress ts atural resources te log-term. ideed, tere s tese debate about te role

ts sector sould pla spurrg ecoomc growt. Wt ts abudat resources, some beleve tat Brazl souldtae advatage o ts atural stregts ad comparatve advatage. O te oter ad, ma are cocered about

te rs o te atural resource curse or dutc dsease, wc te wealt geerated rom commodt exports

leads to a crease te value o te coutrs currec, armg mauacturg ad oter ecoomc sectors. Ad,

wt % o te coutrs populato lvg urba areas, te mpact o o-prmar sectors could ave sgcat

mplcatos or emplomet. 6


. World Ecoomc Outloo Database, iteratoal Moetar Fud. See, or example, World Ecoomc Forum Compettveess idex; isead iovato Rag ad World Ba Ease o Dog Busess Reports. Ts s based o a estmate tat te Brazla ecoom wll grow at a average o .% utl . Procuram-se mles de prossoas, Revsta Exame, Aprl. iBGE, Brazla isttute o Geograp ad Statstcs


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Te secod dlemma relates to Brazls opeess to te global ecoom ad ow teratoal developmets mpact

o te coutr. Wle Brazl was oe o te last coutres to eter ad te rst to leave te global acal crss,

tere are global treds tat preset rss or ts ecoom. O te oe ad, Brazl requres oreg drect vestmet,

partcularl to elp ace ts ma large-scale rastructure ad developmet projects. O te oter ad, rapdcaptal ows (especall portolo equt vestmets) are cotrbutg to rsg ato, wc t .%, reacg

te upper lmt o te govermet target.7 Altoug ts s lower ta ma emergg ecoomes, gve Brazls

stor wt per-ato, t s a pot o sestvt ad presets a major cocer or te ew admstrato. A

umber o actors, cludg teratoal oes suc as quattatve easg polces te Uted States ad te low

valug o currec Ca, ave cotrbuted to te rse te value o te real (reacg as g as . reals per

US dollar)8 leadg Gudo Matega, te Brazla ace mster to co te term currec wars.9 As a result, te

Brazla govermet ds tsel a complex coudrum, tat o trg to reduce bot ato ad te value o

ts currec. i order to reduce ato, te govermet as bee rasg ts terest rate, wc ow at .%, s

amogst te gest te world. At te same tme, te g terest rate as served to attract oreg vestors ad

captal to te coutr. To tacle ts, te Rousse govermet as troduced a umber o captal cotrols sce

ts augurato earler ts ear, suc as expadg taxes o oreg borrowgs to loas.

Te trd dlemma s ow to oster te role o deret actors te Brazla ecoom. Growt Brazl as bee

spurred b a rse domestc demad, as a ew mddle class as emerged, beetg rom a expaso o ormal

wor ad rses mmum wage.10 ideed, govermet expedture Brazl, wc accouts or aroud % o

GDP s muc ger ta most emergg ecoomes. Te loas gve b BnDES, Brazls atoal ba o devel-

opmet, amout to greater ta tose made b te

World Ba.11 Wle ts as bee advatageous or

urterg growt ad prospert, BnDES as bee

crtcsed or ledg mal to large corporatos. Ma

are cocered about te ecoom beg domated

b large actors ad te log-term mplcatos o ts

or ovato, etrepreeursp ad growt. O te

oter ad, ma large-scale projects do requre publc

vestmet ad bg compaes to carr tem troug.

For smaller-scale tatves, te role o urter prvate

vestmet could be valuable ad sould be ecour-

aged.

Te govermets attempt to curb spedg ts ear, cludg a pledge to a $ bllo cut, sow te extet to

wc t prortses reducg ato, wc aects te poor more ta te rc.12 however, tere s a careul balace

to stre. hger terest rates ad lower avalablt o acg ted to curb prvate vestmet ad ma ed up

armg Brazla busess ad te mauacturg sectors. ideed, as te coutrs dustr aces calleges bot


Tere are global treds tat preset

rss or ts ecoom(...)te govermet

ds tsel a complex coudrum,

tat o trg to reduce bot ato

ad te value o ts currec

. note: Gve Brazls stor te Cetral Ba sets te target at . % (gve or tae %); See iato could test Rousses populart, Facal Tmes, Ma . Brazl as arra o tools, Bloomberg, Aprl . Currec war warg rom Brazls ace mster BBC news, September . Tere s debate about weter ts s actuall a mddle class (e.g. Marcelo ner) or just a ew tpe o worg class ( e.g. Marco Pocma, Jesse De Souza). nest egg or serpets egg Ecoomst, August . Govero auca corte recorde de R$ bles o orameto de O Globo, Jauar


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rom ceap mports ad te g value o te real, t ma eed to cocetrate o more ovatve ad ce prod-

ucts addg to successes suc as Embraer (te arcrats mauacturer) ad ex-uel cars. As Brazl sees to evolve

a ecoomc model tat s more sustaable te log-term, t wll eed to move towards more balaced growt.

Ts wll volve balace betwee te deret sectors o te ecoom cludg agrculture, resources ad mau-

acturg; betwee global marets ad domestc realtes; ad betwee te deret actors te ecoom cludgte state ad te maret.

i order to boost te compettveess o te Brazla ecoom ad mae te most o ts atural resource stregts,

deeper structural mprovemets wll be ecessar, especall rastructure ad educato. Tese ma eed to be

accompaed b tax ad oter reorms. however, te ature o te Brazla poltcal sstem, wc ote moves

a adoc ad pecemeal wa s lel to see gradual cage ad ot sudde trasormatos. Wle ts brd ad

exble approac as so ar served Brazl well, over te comg ears, te coutr ma eed to evolve a more cosol-

dated ecoomc strateg ad vso, oe tat embraces bot prvate ad publc actors ad te deret sectors o

te ecoom a more tegrated approac.



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Fosterg socal developmet

Brazl aceved remarable levels o socal progress recet ears. Redstrbutve polces, based o a developmet

model tat combed ecoomc growt, come dstrbuto ad socal cluso, lted a staggerg twet-mllo

people out o povert ad elped aoter trt mllo to clmb te ras o te mddle-class.13 i cotrast to most

oter emergg ecoomes, Brazl was able to combe g rates o ecoomc growt wt creases per capta

come ad reductos come equalt.14 Muc o ts success was aceved troug ger ad targeted levels

o socal spedg, partcularl o te expaso o ormal emplomet ad credt, stead rses te mmum

wage, ad te mplemetato o come traser programmes suc as Bolsa Famla.15 Eorts to allevate povert

ad eradcate uger were also part o a broader ageda to restore te sel-esteem o Brazlas ad promote ctze-

sp or all. Toda, tere s muc optmsm tat Brazl s set to become a developed, mddle-class socet.

however, sgcat calleges rema, bot terms o persstg equaltes ad te qualt o essetal servces

suc as polcg, educato ad ealtcare. Accordg to te socologst Jess de Souza, oe-trd o Brazlas

cotue to lve precarous codtos ad are excluded rom mastream socet.16 Tere are vast ad etreced

equaltes tat separate tese segmets rom te culturall prvleged ad poltcall egaged. Te poor ad uedu-

cated do ot ejo te ull beets o ctzesp ad are te ma vctms o precarous wor, socal volece ad lac

o poltcal access. Crme, racal equalt, prejudce ad poor rastructure stll aect te overwelmg majort

o te populato. Despte recet progress, regoal dspartes are stll sgcat. Altoug oter regos are ow

growg aster, te state o So Paulo remas resposble

or % o atoal GDP. Wle tere s a compellg case to

be made tat Brazlas are sgcatl better o ta te

were a decade ago, realt, todas optmsm coexsts

wt deep setmets o securt, ager toward mpu-

t, ad resetmet toward corrupto, across all levels o

socet puttg a stra o Brazls socal abrc.

i ts pat towards urter socal developmet, Brazl s

lel to ace tree terled calleges. Te rst s ow to

orge socal soldart ad oster a egaged ad actve ctzer. Te secod s regardg te uture o te gover-

met tax ad sped model, especall at tme o publc spedg cuts. Ad te trd s ow to esure better access

ad qualt o essetal servces ad te role o prvate actors ad cvl socet ts eld.


Optmsm coexsts wt deep

setmets o securt, ager

toward mput, ad resetmet

toward corrupto

. isttute o Appled Ecoomc Researc (-); ner, M A ova classe meda: o lado brllate dos pobres: FGV; . Pocma, M. novo padro de mudaa socal, Fola de So Paulo november . Abrao, J. Te costructo o a strategc socal polc Cartg new Drectos: Brazls role a mult-polar world, Foresgt publcato; . itervew wt Jess de Souza, ihU Ole, Jauar


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Frst, tere are calleges o creatg a more coesve socet ad egaged ctzer. Te prevous govermet

sougt to promote socal rgts, but t also urtered te cosoldato o ctzesp ad te costructo o a

stroger ato. Presdet Lula sougt to overcome wat e perceved as a deepl dvded democrac ad te

predomace o a prooudl asmmetrcal orm o govermet. Goe are te das we Brazl used to be

govered or oe trd o ts populato, e aouced .17 Eorts to eradcate uger ad mtgate povertwere assocated wt a broader ageda o socal coeso ad ctzes rgts. huger s te most dramatc ad

urget expresso o a structural mbalace, requrg correcto troug tegrated polces tat oster ull ct-

zesp, e stated.18 ideed, ts perod wtessed te revval o a log-stadg Brazla cocer, te dea tat

a coutr eeds a atoal project. Leadg strategsts ote alluded to te goal o ato buldg as part o te

govermet programme. Te ew developmet mster, Tereza Campello, artculated ts broader purpose b

sag we wll go aead wt our atoal project, [to promote] ecoomc developmet wt come redstrbuto,

[but also] cultural redstrbuto, ad power redstrbuto.19 Ma o tese tatves were te result o dvdual

leadersp ad specc programmes ad are et to be sttutoalsed. how to susta ad deepe tem wll be

creasgl mportat as te expectatos o dverse ad upwardl moble groups cage.

Te secod dlemma relates to te uture o Brazls tax ad sped model. Recet studes ave sow tat sg-

catl ger levels o socal spedg were strumetal reducg come equalt, wc ell to ts lowest levels

t ears.20 Betwee ad , te poorest % o te populato ad a % crease come, wle te

rcest % a crease o %.21 ivestmets educato ad ealtcare ave ad te most sgcat eects,

wle come traser programmes ave ad postve but a more lmted mpact.22 Progressve socal spedg,

te orm o come dstrbuto ad vestmets publc ealt ad educato, was a drect measure adopted

b te govermet to compesate or a regressve taxato sstem tat as tradtoall dered socal moblt.

idrect taxato, suc as cosumpto tax, accouted or .% o total tax tae .23 Cosderg tat te

poor sped % o ter come o te cosumpto o basc goods ad servces wle te rc sped ol %,

t s qute clear tat low-come groups ave bee

soulderg ts tax load.24 Tax reorm could mae

a substatal cotrbuto to socal developmet b

boostg ederal reveue ad easg te tax burde

o low-come groups. however, o agreemet exsts

o te ecessar cages. i o cosesus s reaced

o tax reorm, ad te govermet s let to oot te

bll, plas or uversal rgts to ealt, educato ad

securt could be delaed or eve deraled.

Te trd dlemma relates to plas or uversal ealt, educato ad publc securt. i te s, te ederal

govermet troduced come tax deductos or tose wo made use o prvate ealtcare ad prvate educato.

i practce, te true beecares were te mddle ad upper classes, wo use prvate servces exclusvel ad wo

dlgetl ll ter tax returs. Ts ormal arragemet wt te prvate sector to esure access to qualt servces

as bee detrmetal to te poorer segmets o socet because t reduces cotrbutos to te state budget ad


Betwee ad , te poorest %

o te populato ad a % crease

come, wle te rcest % ad a

crease o %

. Elte o quer que pas avace, dz Lula Fola de S. Paulo, October . Presdet Luz ico Lula da S lva speec to te t Plear Meetg o te Un Geeral Assembl, September . Campello, T. Dscurso de posse da mstra Tereza Campello Jauar

. Abrao, J. Te costructo o a strategc socal polc Cartg new Drectos: Brazls role a mult-polar world, Foresgt publcato, . ner, M. Desgualdade de Reda a Dcada FGV, Ro de Jaero, . ipea. Equdade Fscal no Brasl: impactos Dstrbutvos da Trbutao e do Gasto Socal Comucado do ipea o. , Ma . kMPG. ipea


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udermes plas or uversal socal provso b te govermet. Meawle, te qualt ad avalablt o ealt,

educato ad polcg servces ma areas remas absmall low. Low-come groups tereore suer rom

adequate access to educato ad a g level o vulerablt to crme. As Brazl develops ad pursues more amb-

tous goals, wll t coose to troduce uversal socal provso b te state, or wll t do sometg deret? Te

Brazla govermet wll eed to t creatvel about ow t ca tap o te stregts o te vbrat cvl socetad prvate sectors eac o tese areas, wle at te same tme, esurg tat accessblt s creased or all.

ideed, successul tatves, suc as te UPPs (paccato uts wc wor wt crme-rdde egbouroods)

ave combed te servces o te govermet wt ctzes egagemet.

As Brazl sees to move orward tese areas, t wll ace dfcult poltcal coces about taxato, spedg, servce

delver ad ow to volve a rage o actors. i ts quest or uversal welare, t ma be able to draw o te expe-

reces o oter coutres but wll ultmatel eed to orge ts ow pat o buldg a socet wc people eel

secure, ave access to opportutes ad are able to utlse qualt servces to ulll ter capabltes.



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Attag teratoal uece

i er rst speec o oreg aars ewl-elected presdet Dlma Rousse declared tat a coutrs oreg polc

s more ta ts global projecto; t s also a essetal compoet o a atoal project o developmet, especall

a creasgl terdepedet world () Te teral ad exteral dmesos o our polc are deed sepa-

rable25 Brazl as a log tradto o lg oreg polc tatves wt developmet objectves. yet, te dea was

embraced wt ewoud vgour polcmag crcles te earl ears o ts decade ad as gaed mometum

sce.

Brazls global actvsm uder te Lula admstrato was broadl ted to developmet strateges at te domestc

level a attempt to preserve atoal scope or polc plag. Ts cluded eorts to secure autoom rom te

Uted States, deepe tegrato Sout Amerca ad orge ls wt developg coutres across Asa, Arca ad

te Mddle East ad oter emergg ecoomes troug adoc groupgs suc as Brcs ad ibsa. Eorts to coord-

ate developg world postos bodes le te WTO allowed t to bloc trade measures deemed uavourable to

ts terests ad w cocessos o ssues suc as te lcesg o geerc drugs. it also cluded te promoto o

a teratoal socal ageda, rst artculated te Acto agast huger ad Povert campag lauced at te

Uted natos .26 i te global sout, partcular, Brazl sougt to sare best practce measures povert

allevato, come redstrbuto, ealt ad educato reorm, ad bouels producto, tatves wc allowed

te coutr to garer support or ts polces at ome. Tese expereces stregteed te vew tat oreg polc

aded domestc developmet, ad tat te two are rml tertwed.

Wle Brazls recet teratoal actvsm as cotrbuted to ts rse as a e global actor, te coutr aces complex

dlemmas gog orward. Tese clude ts cooperato wt te rego, ts relatos wt major global powers ad

te mpact o cagg teral damcs o ts exteral polces.

Frst, tere are questos about te uture o rego ormato Lat Amerca. Te govermet rml belevestat te rse o Brazl s extrcabl led to tat o ts regoal parters. Presdet Dlma as reafrmed tat te

rego wll cotue to be Brazls rst prort. however, te wdeg gap, terms o ecoomc sze ad global

promece, betwee Brazl ad ts egbours rases dfcult dlemmas. Wle te coutrs success as led t to

be vewed as a attractve model b ma, t as also aroused suspco ad securt amogst oters. As a result,

Brazl wll eed to tae eed o ts egbours axetes ad sow geerost order to allevate ter cocers. But

mplemetg polces to deal wt at-Brazla setmet ( te orm o pamets, teccal support, debt rele,

scolarsps, etc.) s ot eas te ace o domestc publc opo. Cocessos to smaller ecoomes are see

egatvel b te wder publc or wom Brazl tsel remas a povert-strce ad crme-rdde ato. Ts uder-

scores a udametal cotradcto wt eorts o rego ormato te act tat t s dfcult or Brazl to pa

te costs assocated wt t. Te coutrs recet decso to trple pamets (wc ad storcall bee extremel


. Rousse, D. Dscurso da Presdeta da Repblca, Dlma Rousse, do isttuto Ro Braco, Aprl . na, A. Acto agast uger ad povert: Brazla povert L ulas rst term, Cetre or Brazla Studes, Uverst o Oxord,


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low) to Paragua or electrct rom a jot droelectrc dam, s a mportat step ts drecto. Suc progress s

ecessar order to oster stablt te rego ad prospert Brazl, wc also depeds eavl o te expa-

so o eerg ad rastructural projects across te subcotet.

Brazl wll also eed to t careull about ow to maage ts relatos wt te worlds major plaers at a tme wc te exstg teratoal order s ux. As Marco Aurlo Garca, a seor oreg polc advser te

Presdec sad we are eadg toward a multpolar world. But ts wll also be a asmmetrcal world. natoal

polces cotue to be mposed o te global ecoom be te US moetar polces or Cese excage rate

polces ad te wll cotue to do so.27 Te allaces Brazl orms ad te pats t taes order to respod to ts

asmmetr are costatl evolvg. Wle t mataed close ad amcable tes wt te Uted States, durg ts

past decade Brazl also pursued a more autoomous oreg polc. it stood up to Wasgto o ssues cosdered

vtal to ts polc autoom ad atoal terests, tus altg te stallato o a US mltar satellte aclt ts

terrtor ad resstg te Free Trade Area o te Amercas (FTAA) tatve proposed b te US, wc was deemed

armul or Brazla dustr.

Brazl also pursued closer ls wt oter emergg ecoomes as a couterpot to te uece o establsed

powers. Two ears ago, Ca emerged as Brazls largest tradg parter but ts as brougt ts ow rss. Ma are

ow cocered tat te ecoomc relatosp could be armul or Brazls dustr, wt Ca mal mportg

commodtes ad oodg te Brazla maret wt ceap mauactured goods. Brazl as bee relatvel agle

trg to correct te mbalace. Bejg was Presdet Dlmas rst destato abroad, outsde o Lat Amerca, ad

er delegato was determed to secure better terms o trade or dustral goods. Some success was aceved

we Bejg agreed to bu jets rom Embraer wle Foxco promsed to vest $b a mauacturg

complex Brazl. however, tere s o sortage o calleges aead, ot least wt Brazls ow vct, Sout

Amerca, were Ca as become a compettor.

Cagg teral damcs also ave mplcatos

or a more robust ad multlevel oreg polc. Socal

moblt ad democratc cosoldato Brazl ave

brougt to te ore a greater varet o terests ad

domestc actors opg o govermet polc wle

also stregteg te coutrs cultural dverst ad

multple ertages. Te expectatos ad eeds o

te upwardl-moble segmets o socet wll strogluece te atoal ageda te ears to come,

cludg oreg polc wc as recetl become

a more poltcsed ssue.28 Wle te oudatos o

oreg polc are ulel to cage atme soo, te varet o voces tat ave emerged mae relatosps

abroad more codtoal o wat opportutes te geerate ad wat te represet te earts ad mds

o ewl empowered ctzes. i Brazls teratoal dett wll reect te emergg socal order at ome, t ma

come to be redeed. ideed, tere s o certat about were Brazl wll stad o te emergg teratoal ault-

les, weter t s a wester or souter coutr. it ma well cotue to combe tese dettes or eve adopt

a etrel deret caracter.


. Garca, M. A. Speec at te Progressve Goverace Coerece Oslo, norwa, Ma . Foreg polc s a area o govermet actvt tat as tradtoall bee delegated to te dscreto o te Mstr o Exteral Relatos. i te last two decades,bot presdets Cardoso ad Lula ave carred out ter versos o presdetal dplomac. Last ears presdetal race saw oreg polc emerged as a electoralssue or te rst tme. Durg ts perod, regoal cocessos, or example, as metoed earler ave met wt strog resstace rom pu blc opo. Relatos wtCa, ira, ad Cuba were urter eatedl cotested publc ad busess crcles.

Te varet o voces tat ave emerged

mae relatosps abroad more

codtoal o wat opportutes te

geerate ad wat te represet te

earts ad mds o ewl empowered

ctzes


14/18

As Brazl sees to exert greater global uece as part o ts project o atoal developmet, ts ablt to do so wll

also deped o te extet to wc t s able to embed tsel wt teratoal sttutos. Eorts to do so ave

so ar ol met wt lmted success largel part due to a averso to cage o part o te establsed powers.

ideed, exstg sttutos suc as te iMF ad UnSC cotue to reect outdated realtes ad suer rom a losso legtmac, wc also ders ter eectveess. Te loger Brazls demads or greater equt teratoal

sttutos are obstructed, te greater te rs to te teratoal sstem as a wole.



15/18

Cocluso

i recet ears, Brazl as demostrated tat t s possble to combe tgs tat ave ote bee cosdered

mutuall exclusve developg coutres: carsmatc leadersp wt a vbrat democrac; a ope maret

ecoom wt socal tervetos to beet te poor; a dverse socet wt te relatve absece o etc stre; ad

creasg teratoal assertveess wle arousg lttle suspco or ear.29 i ts wa t as served as a model or

Lat Amerca ad a smbol o ope or ma oters aroud te world.

Te coutr as attempted to pursue a atoal project wt te am o eradcatg povert ad uger ad

promotg equt ad ctzesp. Ts as bee based o targeted socal tervetos bult o te bac o rapd

ecoomc growt spurred b rsg global demad or commodtes ad g commodt prces. At te same

tme, sgcat calleges arse rom ts cagg teral ad exteral evromets. its rapd growt, boomg

commodtes trade ad attractveess or vestors ave led to problems o ato ad te rsg value o ts

currec. Te ds o o-sore ol could elp spur urter growt ad prospert but te also carr rss ot eec-

tvel maaged. Wle come trasers ad te expaso

o ormal wor ave elped rase mllos out o povert,

ma stll suer rom crme ad securt, ad lac o

access to qualt publc servces. Altoug te coutrs

recogto as a major global power presets t wt a

teratoal platorm, t also gves rse to dlemmas or ts

regoal ad global role.

As Brazl sees to avgate bot log-persstet ad

ewoud calleges, te coutr wll eed to adapt ts

developmet pat. i order to urter rase te lvg stad-

ards o ts people, Brazl wll eed to st rom a model tat as bee predomatl o redstrbuto to a modeltat provdes better access to producto. Ts wll volve mprovg rastructure, educato ad publc securt

as well as smplg te processes ad costs o dog busess, mag productve meas more accessble or all

ad brgg more sectors to te ormal ecoom. it wll also volve buldg a egaged ad actve ctzer tat

taes part te process o poltcal, ecoomc ad socal cage.

ideed, te ature o Brazla poltcs les at te eart o ts developmet calleges. Wle te coutrs ablt

to combe democratc cosoldato ad rapd ecoomc developmet s a remarable acevemet, sgcat

urdles stll rema. Te curret multpart poltcal sstem, dubbed coaltoal presdetalsm, requres reletless

ad pastag eorts b te leadg part to brdge competg terests wt mor parters order to get legsla-

to passed. Besdes te seer umber o poltcal partes ad ter deologcal eterogeet, ts process s urter

Reorm must see to ree poltcs romte excessve uece o moe,

opeg up opportutes to greater

ctze partcpato, wder access to

poltcal partes, ad ultmatel a more

efcet ad ormed poltcal process


. See Racma, G. Lat Amercas ew sg pat Facal Tmes, Ma


16/18

complcated b te lac o part dscple ad loalt, creatg a evromet o g upredctablt. Executve-

legslatve relatos also deped o careul maagemet o power-sarg ad allocato o govermet jobs.

Te result s a ver protracted poltcal sstem, wc ote moves pecemeal ad adoc was. Te structural

reorms wc are ecessar to uleas Brazls developmet potetal as well as te loger-term vso ecessaror ts global rse deped to a large degree o reormg poltcs tsel. Suc reorm must see to ree poltcs rom

te excessve uece o moe, opeg up opportutes to greater ctze partcpato, wder access to poltcal

partes, ad ultmatel a more efcet ad ormed poltcal process tat acltates developmet.

Brazls success wll, o course, deped o a umber o teral actors cludg te stregt ad vso o ts poltcal

leadersp ad te ablt to orge cosesus amogst deret terest groups ad sectos o socet a rapdl

cagg domestc cotext. But t wll also deped o ts coectos wt te global ecoom ad te wa oter

major powers teract wt te coutr. ideed, a stable ad successul Brazl s te terests o tose beod ts

borders. As a damc maret ecoom ad a vbrat democrac wt a empass o socal cluso, Brazl oers

ope a creasgl turbulet world. Wt ts proxmt ad smlart to te Uted States terms o sze ad

dverst, ts storc ad cultural tes wt Europe, Arca ad Asa, ad ts e role urterg ls amogst te

emergg ecoomes, t occupes a uque posto world aars. Brazls ow experece o maagg dverst

at ome, as well as rego ormato ad coct averso Lat Amerca oer sgcat lessos. i te words o

Presdet Obama, oter e global powers sould root or Brazls success.



17/18

Aexe

Te autors would also le to ta te ollowg tervewees ad coerece cotrbutors or ter partcpato

ts project.Te vews expressed ts wor are tose o te autors ol ad do ot ecessarl reect te opos

o tose metoed ere.

Roberto Abdeur, ormer Brazla Ambassador to te Uted States ad Ca

Edmud Ama, reader developmet ecoomcs, Uverst o Macester

Celso Amorm, ormer Brazla oreg mster

Glauco Arbx, presdet o te iovato agec (FinEP) o te Mstr o Scece ad Tecolog, Brazl

nelso Barbosa, executve-secretar o te Mstr o Face, Brazl

Rubes Barbosa, presdet o iteratoal Trade Coucl o te Federato o te state o Sao Paulo idustres (Fesp)

ad ormer Ambassador to te Uted States

Marcel Fortua Bato, Brazla ambassador to Bolva

Luz Carlos Bresser-Perera, ormer Brazla ace mster ad proessor emertus at FGV.

Alstar Burett, edtor, World Togt, BBC Rado

Augusto Csar Castro, secretar or acal aars ad multlateral trade, at te Brazla Embass Lodo

Jorge Abrao de Castro, drector o socal studes ad polces at te isttute o appled Ecoomc Researc (ipea)

Marcos Ctra, drector or iteratoal Cooperato, isttute or Appled Ecoomc Researc (ipea)

Carlos Mrco Cozede, secretar or teratoal aars, Mstr o Face

Maru Doctor, lecturer poltcal ecoom at te Uverst o hull

Joo Carlos Ferraz, drector o te natoal Ba o Developmet (BnDES)

Wllam Galsto, Ezra . Zla car goverace studes at te Broogs isttuto Wasgto DC, ad ormer

polc advsor to Presdet Clto

helea Mara Gaspara, ead o te cultural secto at te Brazla Embass Lodo

nraja Gopal Jaal, proessor o poltcal scece, Jawaarlal neru Uverst

Oscar Guardola-Rvera, seor lecturer law ad teratoal aars, Brbec Uverst

Samuel Pero Gumares, g-represetatve o Mercosul, ad ormer mster o strategc aars

Adrew hurrell, Motague Burto proessor o teratoal relatos, Oxord UverstRoberto Jaguarbe, Brazla ambassador to te Uted kgdom

kjeld Jaobse, presdet, Socal Observator isttute

Wu Jam, vce carma, Ca isttute or iovato ad Developmet Strateg ad member o Foreg Polc

Advsor Group o te Cese Mstr o Exteral Aars

Carles kupca, proessor o teratoal relatos, Georgetow Uverst

Dalo Lmoero, researcer, Uverst o Oxord

Fodor Luaov, edtor, Russa Global Aars

Peter Madelso, presdet, Polc networ ad ormer Uk rst secretar o state ad EU trade commssoer

Tomas Matusse, Germa ambassador to ida

Deepa naar, proessor o ecoomcs, Jawaarlal neru Uverst ad dstgused uverst proessor o



18/18

ecoomcs, new Scool or Socal Researc

Marcelo ner, drector o te Ceter or Socal Polces at te Getlo Vargas Foudato (FGV)

Leoardo Paz, debate ad studes coordator at te Brazla Ceter or iteratoal Relatos (Cebr)Zogg Pag, proessor o teratoal relatos, Rem Uverst o Ca, ad vstg seor researc ellow,

East Asa isttute, natoal Uverst o Sgapore

Mrco Pocma, presdet, isttute o Appled Ecoomc Researc (ipea)

Tmot Power, drector, Lat Amerca Cetre, Uverst o Oxord

Mzus Qobo, seor ellow, Ceter or Poltcs ad Researc ad ormer ce drector o trade polc, Sout Arca

Departmet o Trade ad idustr

Gdeo Racma, ce oreg aars columst, Facal Tmes

lco Gomes Roca, ce ecoomst, Ba o Brazl

Rorda Roett, drector o Lat Amerca Studes, Jos hops Uverst

Rat Ro, drector o te Un iteratoal Polc Cetre or iclusve Growt (iPC-iG)

Roaldo Sardeberg, presdet, Aatel ad ormer ambassador to Uted natos, ad ormer mster o scece

ad tecolog

Gorgo Romao Scutte, proessor o iteratoal Relatos at te Federal Uverst o te ABC.

Rcardo Sees, drector o Gact, a tta related to te isttute o iteratoal Relatos at te Uverst o

So Paulo

Adr Sger, proessor o poltcs at te uverst o So Paulo ad ormer press secretar te Presdets ofce

Matas Spetor, assstat proessor at te Getlo Vargas Foudato (FGV)

Mara herma Tavares de Almeda, drector, isttute o iteratoal Relatos, Uverst o So Paulo

Maurco Tolmasqum, presdet, te Eerg Researc Compa (EPE)

Fras Tmmermas, Dutc member o parlamet ad ormer mster o Europea aars

Dael Vargas, researcer, harvard Uverst ad ormer mster o strategc aars

Adres Velasco, proessor o teratoal ace ad developmet, harvard Uverst ad ormer Clea Face

Mster

Eduardo Vola, proessor o teratoal relatos at te Uverst o Brasla

Morte Wetlad, norwega permaet represetatve to te Un

yao yag, drector, Ca Ceter or Ecoomc Researc

Jaap de Zwaa, drector, neterlads isttute o iteratoal Relatos


brazil rising. the prospects of an emerging power

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