brazil macroeconomic outlook - economiaemdia.com.br · brazil that brazilians and foreigners need...

December, 2018

Economic Research Department

BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

PRIMARY SURPLUS% of GDP

Source: BCB, Bradesco

2.4%2.0% 2.1%

2.8%

1.2%

2.8%

2.1%

1.6% 1.4%

-0.3%

-1.9%

-2.6%

-1.9% -1.8%

-1.2%

-3.5%

-2.5%

-1.5%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

CONFIDENCE INDEXIndustrial sector

Source: CNI, Bradesco

62.7

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

65.00

70.00

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO EMPRESÁRIO INDUSTRIAL (ICEI) - DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS

INVENTORIES LEVELIndustrial sector, the higher the indicator, the higher the inventories

Source: FGV, Bradesco

105.8107.1

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Título do Gráfico

Historical average

estoques invertidos

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXSep/2005 = 100

Source: FGV, Bradesco

93.2

74.6

106.4

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) E SEUS COMPONENTES (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS)

Confidence

Current Situation

Expectations

Fonte: FGVElaboração: Bradesco Setembro/2005=10

GDPAnnual rate of change, %

Source: IBGE, Bradesco

4.4

1.4

3.1

1.1

5.8

3.24.0

6.15.1

-0.1

7.5

4.0

1.93.0

0.5

-3.5 -3.5

1.0 1.1

2.8

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

PIB anual

GDP - CONSUMPTIONAnnual rate of change, %


4.0%

0.8%1.3%

-0.5%

3.9%4.4%

5.3%6.4%6.5%

4.5%

6.2%

4.8%

3.5%3.5%

2.2%

-3.2%-4.3%

1.0%2.0%

2.8%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Renda real

RETAIL SALESAnnual rate of change, %


3.1%

6.4%

13.6%

9.9%

6.8%

12.2%

6.6%8.0%

3.6%

-1.7%

-8.6% -8.7%

4.0%5.5% 5.5%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

PMC ampliada anual

REAL INCOMESAnnual rate of change, %


-1.7%

1.1%

4.1%

3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3%2.9%

4.3%

3.3%

1.1%

0.1%

-2.3%

2.3%

0.8%1.3%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Renda real

UNEMPLOYMENT RATEAnnual Average, %


9.5% 9.6%8.7%

9.2%9.8%10.1%9.8%

9.3%9.8%

8.8%8.0%

8.5% 8.2%7.6% 7.3% 7.2%

6.8%

8.3%

11.3%

12.8% 12.3%11.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Título do Gráfico

PAYROLLNumber of formal Jobs, in thousands

Source: MTE, Bradesco

762 645

15231254 1229

16171452

995

2137

1566

868 731

153

-1626-1371

-123

300

700

-2.000

-1.500

-1.000

-500

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Saldo Caged

GDP - INVESTIMENTSAnnual rate of change, %


4.8%

1.3%

-1.4%-4.0%

8.5%

2.0%

6.7%

12.0%

-2.1%

17.9%

6.8%

0.8%

5.8%

-4.2%

-13.9%

-10.3%

-1.8%

3.5%6.5%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Renda real

GDP - AGRICULTURALAnnual rate of change, %


2.01.1

4.63.2

5.8

-3.7

6.75.6

-3.1

8.4

2.8 3.3

-4.3

13.0

0.0

3.5

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Título


GDP – INDUSTRIALAnnual rate of change, %

8.2%

2.0% 2.0%

6.2%

4.1%

-4.7%

10.2%

4.1%

-0.7%

2.2%

-1.5%

-5.8%

-4.0%

0.0%1.5%

3.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Renda real


GDP - SERVICESAnnual rate of change, %

5.0

3.74.3

5.8

4.8

2.1

5.8

3.52.9 2.8

1.0

-2.7 -2.6

0.31.0

2.5

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Serviços


GDP - CONSTRUCTIONAnnual rate of change, %

-2.1%

0.3%

9.2%

4.9%7.0%

13.1%

8.2%

3.2%4.5%

-2.1%

-9.0%

-5.6% -5.0%

-0.3%

4.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Título do Gráfico

DESPITE THE EXPECTED RECOVERY, IT WILL TAKE SOME YEARS TO COME BACK TO BRAZILIAN GDP PEAK LEVEL


125

135

145

155

165

175

185

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Focus Bradesco2018: 1.36% 1.10%2019: 2.50% 2.80%

CONSUMER PRICES INDEX – IPCA Annual rate of change, %


7.7%

12.5%

9.3%

7.6%

5.7%

3.1%

4.5%

5.9%

4.3%

5.9%6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4%

10.7%

6.3%

2.95%3.8% 4.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

REGULATED PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %


10.8%

15.3%

13.2%

10.2%9.0%

4.3%

1.7%3.3%

4.7%3.1%

6.2%

3.7%

1.5%

5.3%

18.1%

5.5%

8.0%6.7%

5.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

ADMINISTRADOS ANUAL

DURABLE GOODS PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %


4.5%

7.9%

3.9%

8.9%

3.1%

-1.8%

0.0%0.0%

-1.9%

0.9%

-1.6%

-3.5%

3.6%3.0%

3.6%

1.3%

-1.1%

1.6%2.0%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Título do Gráfico

SERVICES PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %


4.9%5.5%

7.3%6.7%

5.7%5.8%

8.1%

6.7%

8.0%

9.8%

8.7%8.3%

8.1%

6.5%

4.7%

3.4%3.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

SERVIÇOS ANUAL

FOOD PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %


9.6%

21.6%

6.7%

2.6%0.6%

-0.1%

12.4%10.7%

0.9%

10.7%

5.4%

10.0%

7.1%

12.9%

9.4%

-4.9%

4.2%4.5%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Alimentação Domicilio

NOMINAL INTEREST RATESelic, Annual rate


15.75%

25.00%

16.50%18.00%

13.25%

11.25%

13.75%

8.75%

11.00%

7.25%

10.00%

14.25%13.75%

7.00% 6.50%7.25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATER$/US$

Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco

3.89

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

Mar-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATER$/US$, end of period


1.962.32

3.53

2.892.65

2.342.14

1.77

2.34

1.74 1.671.88

2.042.34

2.66

3.90

3.26 3.31

3.80 3.70

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final

SELECTED CURRENCIESAccumulated variation in the last 12 months


116.8%

18.1%10.1% 7.0% 5.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0%

-0.8%

-25.0%

-5.0%

15.0%

35.0%

55.0%

75.0%

95.0%

115.0%

135.0%A

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Turk

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Pak

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Bra

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Ru

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Ind

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Me

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Hu

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Cze

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Ph

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Pe

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Chin

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Au

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Can

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Sou

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EXCHANGE RATER$/US$, DXY index


96.67

3.89

2.1

2.8

3.5

4.2

80

85

90

95

100

105

Mar-16 Nov-16 Jul-17 Mar-18 Dec-18

Dólar em relação à cesta DXY. Fonte: Bloomberg.

DXY Real

5 YEARS CDS AND BRL R$/US$


213.21

3.88

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

-50.00

50.00

150.00

250.00

350.00

450.00

550.00

Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

CDS_5 BRL

OIL PRICES US$/barrel


53.89

63.08

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18

WTI BRENT

IRON ORE PRICES US$/ton


12.5 13.0 12.7 13.8 16.428.1

33.5 36.6

61.6

80.0

146.7

167.8

128.5135.4

96.8

55.6 58.9

71.866.0

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO MINÉRIO DE FERRO (PREÇO SPOT NO PORTO DE TIANJIN/CHINA, MINÉRIO COM 62% DE TEOR DE FERRO) - US$/TONELADA

FONTE: FMIELABORAÇÃO E (P) PROJEÇÃO: BRADESCO

SOYBEAN PRICES US$/bushel


5.0 4.65.1

6.3

7.5

6.1 5.9

8.6

12.3

10.3 10.5

13.2

14.614.1

12.5

9.5 9.9 9.8 9.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Título do Gráfico

BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT US$ million, deficit as % of GDP


-120,000

-100,000

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

-3.3% GDP

-1.3%GDP

-4.2% GDP

-0.7%GDP

-0.7%GDP

-0.5%GDP

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT US$ billion


28.928.433.0

23.216.6

10.118.215.519.4

44.650.7

31.5

88.5

101.2

86.6

69.2

96.9

75.178.970.370.072.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Título do Gráfico

BRAZIL THAT BRAZILIANS AND FOREIGNERS NEED TO KNOW

o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SUGARo 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER COFFEEo 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ORANGE JUICEo 1st PRODUCER REGIONAL JETSo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SOYBENSo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER CATTLE MEATo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER TOBACCOo 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ALCOHOLo 2nd EXPORTER FOOD PRODUCTSo 2nd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER IRON OREo 3rd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER POULTRY MEATo 3rd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER CORNo 3rd ELETRIC POWERo 3rd CONSUMER PERSONAL COMPUTERo 3rd PRODUCER FRUITSo 3rd PRODUCER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFTo 3rd INTERNET USERSo 3rd PRODUCER BUSESo 3rd PRODUCER FOOTWEARo 3rd CONSUMER PERFUMES AND COSMETICSo 3rd PRODUCER BAUXITEo 4th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER PORK MEATo 4th PRODUCER BEVERAGESo 4th PRODUCER MILKo 4th PRODUCER CERAMICS COVERINGS

o 4th PRODUCER SHIPPING INDUSTRYo 4th PRODUCER PULPo 4th PRODUCER TRUCKSo 4th CONSUMER MOBILE PHONESo 4th ROAD NETWORK EXTENSIONo 4th PRODUCER CLOTHINGo 5th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER COTTONo 5th PRODUCER AND 7th EXPORTER ORNAMENT STONESo 5th PRODUCER TEXTILEo 5th PRODUCER COCOAo 5th PRODUCER CEMENTo 5th PRODUCER PAPERo 6th PRODUCER PHARMACEUTICALo 6th PRODUCER CHEMICALo 7th CONSUMER MARKETo 7th PRODUCER RICEo 7th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER SALES CARSo 8th PRODUCER ALUMINIUMo 9th PRODUCER STEELo 11th PRODUCER HONEYo 13th PRODUCER OILo 15th WIND ENERGYo 15th PRODUCER WHEAT

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Updated: December 7th, 2018

brazil macroeconomic outlook - economiaemdia.com.br · brazil that brazilians and foreigners need...

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