brave new world - ifsf.org · brave new world mike ryan, futurist fusion futures limited...
TRANSCRIPT
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brave new worldmike ryan, futurist
fusion futures limited @mikemanchester
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what do I do?
enable clients to understand their future and make betterdecisions enabling them todrive forwards with confidence.
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the menu today
• societal drivers
• technology drivers
•work and future jobs
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societal drivers
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no more secrets
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spying§
spying
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hacking
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world starting to close up
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1 in 113 of the global population displaced*
*UN HCR report 2015
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technology drivers
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more and more data
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Since 2010, 5 companies are engaged in a tech race spending billions on R&D each year.
the technology race 2010-
1961-1969
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the technology race 2010-
Space Race: 1961 - 1969: $40 billion
Tech Race 2010 - 2015: $100 billion a year
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Saudi Arabia’s $ 2 trillion oil fund diversifying
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Maintenence
digital trade mirrors physical trade
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five key tech drivers going to change life by 2030
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1. artificial intelligence
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voice the new interface
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2. augmented reality
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connected wearable devicesdigital contact lenses available by 2020
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3. nano level innovation
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3D printing mass disruption
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super materials4. smart materials
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graphene as important as steel
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graphene light bulb
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5. robotics and ultra automation
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work and future jobs
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typesetter
bone crusher
typist
lift operatorice cutter
cobbler
fax operator
quartermaster
travel agent
telegraph operator
canal operator switchboard operator
map maker
road sweeper
redundant jobs since 1900
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call centre operators
reporters
locksmithsmany retail workers
bank counter staff
tour guideszoologists
butchers
cleaners
postmenmany soldiers
builders
car assemblers
power workers
librarians
at risk jobs by 2030
railway staff
taxi drivers
delivery drivers
pilots
insurance staff
traffic police / wardens
GPs
driving instructors
many admin staff
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a smart machine age: machines will compete for work with humans
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effect on logistics leaving empty warehouses
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scenario building: driverless cars and the future future scenarios: driverless cars
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2016 -2020
stage 1: a new feature gets introduced - autopilot
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stage 2: luxury cars sold on driverless freedom
2020-2025
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2025 onwards
stage 3: end of steering wheels and personal car ownership
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nearly all private cars are used just 5% of the time
the facts
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2030s could the UK roads be like Cuba?
good news
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accidents will reduce to 1:10,000 and 90% less casualties
UK accidents cost£34.8 billion a year*
*2015 Dept/ Transport Figure
good news
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or is this a traffic intersection
in an autonomous
vehicle future?
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14.6% of UK employment inthe motor industry and driving jobs*
*ONS sector breakdown 2015
342,000 work in the car insurance industry in the UK.*nearly as many work in thecar finance market as well.
bad news
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a £64 billion industry completely altered in a decade
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professional freelancers
world of freelancers the gig economy
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low skilled roles replaced by automation and machines
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highly skilled roles replaced by AI and machine learning
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the future will be a harder place to find work
for 4 jobs lost now only 1 will be createdin the future
WEF, Davos forecast, 2016
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the long tail give niche opportunity
low competition
high competition
highautomation
human intensivebusiness
the long tail will still provide opportunity for human workers
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live, work and eat local: communities in cities
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human based customer service will need to be perfect
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be careful of upsetting customers who are social reviewers
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what will workin the future?
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location, location, location
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how could you engage with the sharing economy?
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find the right new partners
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ying when other businesses yang
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use automation to help not hinder the customer
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thank you please stay in touch
mike ryan, futurist fusion futures
mikemanchester