branislav vukoti c astronomska opservatorija u beogradu...
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![Page 1: Branislav Vukoti c Astronomska opservatorija u Beogradu ...poincare.matf.bg.ac.rs/katedre/astronomija/beta/lat/sci/seminar/branislav.vukotic.180.pdfUvodOsnovne pretp.Katastro zamModeli:](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022041610/5e36ed5320564319e4652915/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Modeli galakticke nastanjivosti
Branislav VukoticAstronomska opservatorija u Beogradu
Seminar Katedre za astronomiju
10.03.2015.
![Page 2: Branislav Vukoti c Astronomska opservatorija u Beogradu ...poincare.matf.bg.ac.rs/katedre/astronomija/beta/lat/sci/seminar/branislav.vukotic.180.pdfUvodOsnovne pretp.Katastro zamModeli:](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022041610/5e36ed5320564319e4652915/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Nastanjivost
Ocekivano sletanje 2040. 400 000 km2×100 m
×106 !!!
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Bitno za nastanjivost
Zvezdani sistem: Galaksija:• Visestrukost • Metalicnost• Masa zvezde • Gustina• Broj i polozaji planeta • Zracenja• Stabilnost orbita • Mesanje populacija• Mase i sastav planeta• Skupine malih tela• Interakcija sa drugim sistemima,
razmena materijala
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Zasto da modeliramo bas to?
Izgleda da je vazno!
![Page 5: Branislav Vukoti c Astronomska opservatorija u Beogradu ...poincare.matf.bg.ac.rs/katedre/astronomija/beta/lat/sci/seminar/branislav.vukotic.180.pdfUvodOsnovne pretp.Katastro zamModeli:](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022041610/5e36ed5320564319e4652915/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Kosmoloska paralela
Pocetak evolucijakontinuitet−→ Seminar 10 mart 2015, kao sasvim obican seminar bilo
gde u svemiru.
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Kontinuitet
This common element, which I willcoin “the continuity thesis”, is the as-sumption that there is no unbridgablegap between inorganic matter and liv-ing systems, and that under suitablephysical conditions the emergence oflife is highly probable. It is the adop-tion of the “continuity thesis”, con-cerning the philosophical dimensionof life-matter relationship, which hasturned the origin of life into a legit-imate scientific question, and whichconstitutes a necessary condition forany scientific research in this domain.
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Nista posebno, mada tako ne izgleda.
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Idila...
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Idila...?
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Uticaj neocekivanog
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Obrenovac, maj 2014.
Analiticki −→ Katastrofa.
Katastrofa Monte Carlo simulacije→ Katastrofizam
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Punctuated equilibrium
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Postepena ekstinkcija?
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Sta se dogodilo pre ∼ 65 Myr?
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Katastroficni dogadaji na galaktickoj skaliFunkcija globalnog rizika
• γ-bleskovi:• Annis J, 1999, JBIS, 52, 19.• Scalo, J., Wheeler, J.C., 2002, ApJ, 566, 723.• Thomas, B.C. et al, 2005, ApJ, 634, 509.
• Supernove
• Sudari zvezda
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Nacin modeliranja
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
1D model: Primer korelisanja vremenske skale
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Veoma kraaaaaaatak uvod u ECA
Uredena cetvorka: {G , S ,N ,F}
f : S2r+1 → S ,
|F | = mm2r+1
.
s(t)i = F (s
(t−1)i−r , s
(t−1)i−r+1, ..., s
(t−1)i+r−1, s
(t−1)i+r ).
s(t)i = F (s
(t−1)i−r , s
(t−1)i−r+1, ..., s
(t−1)i+r−1, s
(t−1)i+r ,
s(t−2)i−r , s
(t−2)i−r+1, ..., s
(t−2)i+r−1, s
(t−2)i+r ,
...
s(t−n+1)i−r , s
(t−n+1)i−r+1 , ..., s
(t−n+1)i+r−1 , s
(t−n+1)i+r ,
s(t−n)i−r , s
(t−n)i−r+1, ..., s
(t−n)i+r−1, s
(t−n)i+r )
.
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Neki ECA
Conus textile
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
2D CA i PCA
von Neumann
Moore
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Ispitivanje parametarskog prostora: Kratko uputstvo
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Neki rezultati
Poboljsanja:
simplex+nenormalneraspodeleverovatnoce
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Perkolacija
Mapiranje klastera
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
,,Pakovanje“ klastera
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Kvantifikacija
Vukotic B., Cirkovic, M.M., 2012, OLEB, 42, 347-371.
N(> S) ∝ S−α
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Jos neki modeli
Left: Forgan, D., 2009, IJAsB, 8, 121.Right: Cotta, C., Morales, A., 2009, JBIS, 62, 82.
I jos: Govanlock, M.G., Patton, D.R. and McConnell, S.M., 2011,Astrobiology, 11(9), 855.
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Mesanje populacija
Roskar, R., et al., 2011, ASPC, 448, 371.
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
”Preliminarni”rezultati
Martinez Aviles, G., Steinhauser, D., Vukotic, B., Cirkovic, M.M., Schindler, S., 2013, in prep.
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Uvod Osnovne pretp. Katastrofizam Modeli: osnova 1D PCA modeli + N-t
Mapiranje arhipelaga...
HVALA NA PAZNJI!!!