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model analysis italy data approach based bayesian regression clustering estimation modelling time study market serie comparison non high role multiple inference nonparametric generalised approximate behaviour dimensional school challenge detection ranking mobility household predictive composite hierarchical hypo matching factor posterior supervised graduates adult procedure system estimate additive short graphical learning region survival hidden state migration trafficgender optimal dependence priors integrated value specificjoint insights variable technique parameter source analyse proposal algorithm mapping research empirical varying fertility nonlinear relationship means labour reduction coefficient profile tourism logit scale mortality new flows firms assessment markov fuzzy comparing component weight test student stochastic measurement term epidemiological extreme statistics statistical consumption food environmental conditional condition science studies engineering information measuring immigrant weighted different individual demographic importance finding sustainability impact recession service response partially improve estimating uncertainty space poverty census robust prediction large perspective international dealing policies processes design copula bias spatio mixed micro multilevel evaluation air cross among machine forecasting development earthquake complex age bootstrap missing partial europe event mining mixture choice crisis national countries function spatially depth covariate testing disease path educational number functional linear selection distance partition structure young european life longitudinal territorial register trend index use three error temporal advanced issues systemic simultaneous academic tree social financial health university parametric spatiotemporal attractiveness transition classification insecurity inequality integration energy innovative performance small well local big effect quality indicator population area level dynamic method quantile survey case evidence risk price using network economic multivariate distribution measure spatial latent application 20-22 june 49 th scientific meeting of the italian statistical society sis 2018 PALERMO GENERAL INFO: All information concerning the 49 th SIS Scientific Meeting and the proceedings are available at the web address: http://meetings3.sis-statistica.org/ index.php/sis2018/ E-MAIL: [email protected] UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI PALERMO Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche BR_12.06_11.02.pdf 1 12/06/18 11:03

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20-22 june

49 th scientific meetingof the italian statistical society

sis 2018PALERMO

GENERAL INFO: All information concerning the 49th SIS Scientific Meeting and the proceedings are available at the web address:http://meetings3.sis-statistica.org/index.php/sis2018/

E-MAIL: [email protected]

UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI PALERMODipartimento di Scienze Economiche,Aziendali e Statistiche

BR_12.06_11.02.pdf 1 12/06/18 11:03

ITALIAN STATISTICAL SOCIETY (SIS)The Italian Statistical Society (SIS) was founded in 1939; it promotes every two years an international scientific meeting, in which both methodological and applied statistical research are considered.Today there are about one thousand members including scholars in statistical methodology, probability, social and economic statistics, biostatistics and demography.

THE UNIVERSITY OF PALERMOThe University of Palermo (UNIPA), established in 1806 by Ferdinand III of Bourbon, is to date one of the largest universities in Italy and indeed the largest in Sicily; having a population of 50,000, including students, teaching and administrative sta�. More than 10,000 students enroll each year in first and second cycle Degree Courses. The Rector Seat is nowadays hosted inside Palazzo Chiaramonte-Steri.The painted ceiling of Steri, the rare and century-old trees of the Orto Botanico (one of the oldest scientific gardens in Europe), the Palaeolithic elephants of the Gemmellaro Museum, the fascinating telescopes on show in the Specola Museum are just some of the treasures of art, science and nature of the University of Palermo.

CONFERENCE VENUEThe 49th SIS Scientific Meeting will take place at the University of Palermo, on June 20th-22nd 2018.

LECTURE HALLS: Building n.19 and Aula Magna “V. Li Donni” Building n.13, Viale delle Scienze — Department of Economics, Business and Statistics.OTHER VENUES: Palazzo Steri (University of Palermo), Piazza Marina 59 / Orto Botanico of the University of Palermo, via Lincoln 2.

ABOUT PALERMOPalermo, the ancient capital of Sicily, well known for its sea, rich in precious monumental art treasures and the mild climate, favours an intense cultural and artistic life. A natural bridge between Europe and the Mediterranean countries, linked to them by ship, plane, train, it provides motivation and growth opportunities for young people. Palermo is the Italian Capital of Culture for the year 2018; a list of the events can be found at https://palermocapitalecultura.it

SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM COMMITTEEEugenio Brentari ― Chair, University of BresciaMarcello Chiodi ― Local organizing committee Chair,

University of PalermoFilomena Racioppi ― General Secretary of SIS,

University of RomeMonica Pratesi ― Past Chair, University of PisaAnna Maria Bianchi ― University of BergamoFrancesco Chelli ― Marche Polytechnic UniversityAndrea Cutillo ― Italian National Institute of StatisticsAlessandra De Rose ― Sapienza University of RomeDaniele Durante ― Bocconi University of MilanFedele Pasquale Greco ― University of BolognaLeonardo Grilli ― University of FlorencePiero Manfredi ― University of PisaMarica Manisera ― University of BresciaAntonietta Mira ― Università della Svizzera ItalianaMarcella Niglio ― University of Salerno Francesco Palumbo ― Federico II University of NaplesElvira Romano ― Second University of NaplesNicola Tedesco ― University of Cagliari

LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEEMarcello Chiodi ― ChairMaria Felice Arezzo ― SIS tresaurerAntonino AbbruzzoGiada AdelfioMassimo AttanasioLuigi AugugliaroGiovanni BoscainoFrancesca CracoliciMiranda Cu�aroStefano De CantisFrancesca Di SalvoOrnella GiambalvoGianfranco LovisonAngelo MineoVito MuggeoGiuseppe NotarstefanoDavide Piacentino Antonella PlaiaAntonella RuggieriMariangela SciandraErasmo Vassallo Elli Vassiliadis

CONFERENCE NUMBERSDuring the Meeting there will be: 4 Plenary Sessions, 20 Specialized Sessions, 25 Solicited Sessions, 27 Contributed Sessions, 2 Speed Poster Presentations for a total of 353 speeches.

PLENARY LECTURESPlenary Sessions (PL) will be held at the Aula Magna “V. Li Donni” (University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Building n.13 - Department of Economics, Business and Statistics).There will be the following Plenary Sessions:

· WED. 20 JUNE || PL1 A New Paradigm for Rating Data Models (chair: Monica Pratesi; speaker: Domenico Piccolo);· THURS. 21 JUNE || PL2 The Role of Statisticians in Understanding Global Climate Dynamics (chair: Giorgio Alleva; speakers: Marc G. Genton; Alessandro Fassò);· FRI. 22 JUNE || PL3.A The Istat President, Giorgio Alleva, Presents the Annual Report of 2018 (chair: Vincenza Capursi);· FRI. 22 JUNE || PL3.B Advanced Models and Computational Methods for Data from Modern Biomedicine (chair: Clelia Di Serio; speakers: Chris Bauch; Francesco C. Stingo; Fabrizio De Nicola).

SESSIONSSessions are divided into Specialized (SP), Solicited (SO), Contributed (CO) and Poster.

SIS GENERAL ASSEMBLYThe SIS General Assembly will be held at Aula Magna “V. Li Donni” (University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Building n.13 - Department of Economics, Business and Statistics), on Thursday 21st June, from 18:00 to 19:00.

SATELLITE EVENTS-STATS UNDER THE STARS4 : night between June 19th and 20th (starting at 18:00) / courtyard of the "School of Law and Socio-Economic Studies" and at the "Law Department" (located in via Maqueda 172, former "Monastero dei Teatini"); the winner teams will be announced on Wednesday 20th at 16:00, Building 19 - room 12. -START UP RESEARCH (FOLLOW-UP) : June 19th / Aula "L. Chiazzese" at the "Law Department" (via Maqueda 172).

SOCIAL EVENTSThe Welcome Cocktail will be held at Palazzo Steri (also known as Palazzo Chiaramonte), Piazza Marina 59, at 20:30 on Wednesday 20th.

The SUS4 Award Ceremony will take place during the Welcome Cocktail at Sala delle Capriate (Palazzo Steri).

The Social Dinner will be held at the Orto Botanico of the University of Palermo, Via Lincoln 2, at 21:00 on Thursday 21th. There will be a musical entertainment perfomed by iGEM, universitary band.

palermo was elected “italian capital of culture” for the year 2018

11:40 - 13:00

10:00 - 11:00

10:40 - 11:30

12:00 - 13:30

BR_12.06_11.02.pdf 2 12/06/18 11:03