Preparing for Nuclear Renaissanceand the Korean Model

The 9th ROK-UN Joint Conference onDisarmament and Non-proliferation Issues:

Nuclear Renaissance and International Peace and Security 

Jeju, Republic of Korea2-3 December 2010

Bong-Geun Jun, Ph.D.

IFANS, Seoul

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Contents1. Nuclear Renaissance and Why Now

2. Nonproliferation Requirements

3. The Korean Case

4. Preparations for Newcomers

5. Korea’s Role for Global Renaissance

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[1] Nuclear Renaissance

• Current Status of Civilian Nuclear Energy- 441 nuclear power plants in 29 countries- 14 % of world electricity production=5.7% of total primary

energy consumption

• ‘Global’ Nuclear Renaissance

- NPP construction: 33 in 2007, 66 now

- 65 ‘new’ countries considering or planning nuclear energy

- South Korea: 20 now, 8 under construction, 40 in 2030

- China: 10 now, 24 under construction

- Global: Southeast Asian, South Asian, Middle Eastern countries

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World Nuclear Power Outlook 2030

[Source: IAEA, Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030, 2008 Edition (High estimate) ]

113 GW 175GW

North America

Western Europe

Eastern Europe & Russia

Asia

48 GW 119GW

83GW 268GW

122GW 150GW

Africa

2GW 14GW

Latin America

4 GW 20GW

20072007

372G372GWW

20302030

748G748GWW

Two-fold Increase

(14.2%) (14.4%)

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Why Now?• Climate change: Greenhouse gas emission

reduction obligations• Energy (in)security: uncertain fossil-fuel prices,

unstable supply, limited stock• Safe operation record of NPP

☞ Nuclear Energy “Dark Age” : Three Mile Island accident (USA, 1979), Chernobyl accident (Ukraine, 1986), Indian nuclear test (1974)

• Increasing electricity demand: industrialization, per person consumption, desalination

• Nuclear bandwagon, state prestige(?) 5

[2] Nonproliferation Requirements

• NPT §4. the inalienable right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, but with ‘nonproliferation’ conditionality

(1) Safeguards- NPT, IAEA Safeguards Agreement, Additional Protocol

(2) Export Control- NSG, UNSCR 1540, CSI

(3) Nuclear Security

- CPPNM, IAEA INFCIRC. 225, UNSCR 1887, GICNT, Nuclear Security Summit Communique/Work Plan

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Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

NPT : Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

IAEA : International Atomic Energy Agency

CSA : Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement

NSG : Nuclear Suppliers Group

CPPNM : Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material

CTBT : Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

FMCT : Fissile Material Cut off Treaty

NPT(75.4)

Horizontal Proliferation:

Vertical Proliferation

SafeguardsExport Control

Physical Protection

IAEA CSA

Zangger Committee,

NSG

UNSCR 1540

CPPNMCTBT(99.12)

IAEA Guidelines

(INFCIRC/225)FMCT

Additional Protocol

AG : Australian Group (96.10)

BWC : Biological Weapons Convention (87.6)

CWC : Chemical Weapons Convention (97.4)

MTCR : Missile Technology Control Regime (01.3)

Wassenaar Arrangement (96.7)

Other Export Control Regimes

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Recent Positions on NE and Nonproliferation

L’Aquila G-8 Statement on Nonproliferation (2009.7)

7. … We are committed to promoting nuclear non-proliferation, safeguards, safety and security in cooperation with the IAEA and welcome new initiatives in emerging nuclear energy countries on nuclear education and training as well as institutional capacity building in these fields. …

UNSC Resolution 1887 (2009.9)

11. Encourages efforts to ensure development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy by countries seeking to maintain or develop their capacities in this field in a framework that reduces proliferation risk and adheres to the highest international standards for safeguards, security, and safety;

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2010 NPT Review Conference Final Document

52. The Conference confirms that, when developing nuclear energy, including nuclear power, the use of nuclear energy should be accompanied by commitments to and ongoing implementation of safeguards, as well as appropriate and effective levels of safety and security, in accordance with IAEA standards and consistent with the national legislation and respective international obligations of States.

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Korea’s Position

• Basic bargain among the 3 pillars in NPT

- nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, PUNE are “mutually reinforcing and complementary”

- President’s Prague speech(2009.4)

• PUNE with conditionality

- PUNE with strict nonproliferation and SG obligations

- Access to nuclear fuel cycle technology: multilateral approaches should not deny or limit the legitimate right to PUNE; conditions of objective and economic needs, peaceful purposes and full fulfillment of nonproliferation obligations

- More attention to the back-end nuclear fuel cycle 10

[3] The Korean Case

Nuclear Power Generation

• 2009, 20 units 17.7 GWe, 34% of electricity supply(base), 24 % of capacity

- 2030, 35 units 35 GWe, 59% of supply

• KEPCO average cost 68 kwon(5cents)/KWH: Nuclear 39 Kwon(3cents) vs. Coal 53 Kwon vs. LNG 143 Kwon

• Public consensus for NE: Cheap, reliable and high quality electricity supply for fast economic growth and high-tech industries

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History of Nuclear Energy DevelopmentHistory of Nuclear Energy Development

• 1958 Atomic Energy Act

• 1959 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI)

• 1962 First Reactor: TRIGA Mark-II Research Reactor, General Atomics

• 1978 First NPP: Kori Unit 1, Westinghouse

• 1958 Atomic Energy Act

• 1959 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI)

• 1962 First Reactor: TRIGA Mark-II Research Reactor, General Atomics

• 1978 First NPP: Kori Unit 1, Westinghouse

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Korea’s NE Export

• NPP Export Strategy (2009)- To export 10 units by 2020, 80 units by 2030

Plan (20% of 430 new NPPs projection) - Market: UAE, Turkey, India, Jordan, South

Africa, China, Vietnam. …

- Strength: Proven technology, world-best operation rate, price, safety, construction period

• NPP 4 units of 1400 MW(APR 1400) reactor to UAE at $20 billion(2009.12): 2012-2020

• Research reactor to Jordan at $132 mil. (2010.3)13

UAE Export Selected as a Commercial Nuclear Reactor in UAE (27 Dec

2009) Reactor Model: APR1400 4 Units Construction site: western Abu Dhabi

UAE Nuclear Power PlantUAE Nuclear Power Plant

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Core type : Open Pool Type Multipurpose Research Reactor (5 MWth )

Purposes : Training, Radioisotope Production, etc.

Core type : Open Pool Type Multipurpose Research Reactor (5 MWth )

Purposes : Training, Radioisotope Production, etc.

Project Schedule ’09.12.3 : Selected as preferred

bidder Contract signing ceremony on

March 2010 Detailed Design by 2012 Built on Jordan University of Science

and Technology by 2015

Project Schedule ’09.12.3 : Selected as preferred

bidder Contract signing ceremony on

March 2010 Detailed Design by 2012 Built on Jordan University of Science

and Technology by 2015

Jordan Research and Test ReactorJordan Research and Test Reactor

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Success Factors of the “Korean Model”

• State-led strategic planning and early start

• Cooperation with and support from U.S.

- US-Korea 123 agreement(1956-2014)

• Partnership with IAEA

• Focus on Civilian Use only

- South vs. North Korea

• Human resources: U.S.-educated engineers, researchers, R&D centers, universities

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Korea’s Nuclear Infrastructure• Ministry of Education, Science and Technology: nuclear policy,

int’l cooperation, safety, safeguards/security div.- KAERI: Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute- KINS: Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety- KINAC: Korea institute of Nonproliferation and Control- KONICOF: Korea Nuclear International Cooperation Fd.

• Ministry of Knowledge Economy: nuclear industry, export promotion

- KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation)- KHNP (Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power)- Doosan Heavy Industry: nuclear key components

- Civil engineering firms

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[4] Preparations for Newcomers

Typical Criteria for Decisions • Economics: costs/benefits• Safety: nuclear accident• Environment: climate change, nuclear waste• Nonproliferation: capability, intentions, security

invironment, infrastructure(law, culture, public)

Other Major Considerations• Energy Security• Technological and Economic Advancement• Politics: security, prestige factor

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Cost-Benefit Analysis of NE

Benefits Costs and Risks

• Energy security- Economical and reliable electricity supply for industry, desalination and personal consumption • Low-emission energy for environment • Technological, industrial advancement and spill-over effect• Prestige effect

• Proliferation risks• Nuclear fuel supply and spent-fuel management problems• Opportunity cost (lost investment for other renewable energy resources)• Costs for nuclear safety, safeguard and security

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Obstacles and Costs to New Comers

• Costs for Nuclear safety and security infrastructure

- regulations, institutions, culture• Civilian nuclear technology capability• Regional politics: rivalries, domestic and

regional instability factors• Nuclear proliferation concerns in the region• Nuclear fuel cycle activities: nuclear fuel supply,

spent fuel management• Economic and present needs

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Preparations for NE 1. National Nuclear Energy Roadmap• Energy needs, financing, national consensus• National Nuclear safety, safeguards, security, export

control regime: • Human resources development plan• Fuel-cycle issues: fuel supply, spent-fuel management

2. International Cooperation• Nonproliferation preparations, commitment • Cooperation with IAEA: technical, safeguards/security• Bilateral cooperation agreements:

- ex. U.S. 123 agreement: EURATOM/Japan, Standard 123 model, UAE models 21

Preparations for NE

3. Regional, Multilateral Cooperation

• Joint solutions for nuclear power generation, NPP sites, fuel-supply, spent-fuel managment, safeguards, joint R&D center

• EURATOM model• Nuclear-weapons Free Zone• Implementing UNSC 1540, 1887, Nuclear Security

Summit Communiqué

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5. Korea’s Role for Nuclear Renaissance

• the Korean Model for Newcomers

• Contributions to the global nonproliferation regime

- hosting 2011 GICNT, 2012 NSS- Nonproliferation assistance to Newcomers - ‘Responsible’ exporter of nuclear energy

• Development of future & sustainable nuclear energy systems

- participating in GIF, GNEP- Developing proliferation-resistant and sustainable future

nuclear energy system 23