boletim do banco central do brasil boletim do banco central do brasil february 2003 9 disbursements

Download Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil February 2003 9 Disbursements

Post on 30-Jun-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • ISSN 1517-7270

    February 2003

    Volume 39 – Number 2

    Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil

  • ISSN 1517-7270 CGC 00038 166/0001-05

    Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil Brasília v. 39 no. 2 Feb. 2003 P. 1 - 236

  • Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil February 2003

    2

    Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil Published monthly by the Banco Central do Brasil/Department of Economics.

    The contents and their correspondent statistical tables are under the charge of the following component parts of the Department of Economics (Depec) (E-mail: depec@bcb.gov.br):

    Economic scene in the month and International economy – Consultative Group on Economic Research and Analysis (Copec)

    (E-mail: copec.depec@bcb.gov.br).

    Economic activity – Consultative Group on Domestic Economic Activity (Coace) (E-mail: coace.depec@bcb.gov.br);

    Money and credit and Capital and financial markets – Monetary and Banking Division (Dimob) (E-mail: dimob.depec@bcb.gov.br);

    Public finance – Public Finance Division (Difin) (E-mail: difin.depec@bcb.gov.br);

    Foreign sector of the Brazilian economy – Balance of Payments Division (Dibap) (E-mail: dibap.depec@bcb.gov.br).

    Information on the Boletim: phone 55.61.414-1009 fax 55.61.414-2036 telex 55.61 1400 (BCBR BR)

    Subscription request: subscribers should complete the accompanying form at the last page and send it with a cheque for the appropriate amount payable to the Banco Central do Brasil at the following prices: R$258.00 (domestic) and US$801.11 (abroad) to the General Control of Subscription. Subscription to the Boletim includes twelve monthly issues and the Annual Report. The Statistical Supplement was issued for the last time in March/1998. As from March, it will be only available through Internet.

    Reproduction permitted only if source is stated: Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil, Volume 39, no. 2.

    General Control of Subscription

    Banco Central do Brasil Demap/Disud/Subip SBS – Quadra 3 – Bloco B – Edifício-Sede – 2° Subsolo Caixa Postal 8670 70074-900 – Brasília – DF – Brazil Phone: (55.61) 414-3165 Fax: (55.61) 414-1359

    Single copy: US$21.16 Number printed: 100

    Statistical Conventions

    ... data not available. - nil or non-existence of the event considered. 0 or 0.0 less than half the final digit shown. * preliminary data.

    A hiphen (-) between years (1970-75) indicates the years covered, including the beginning and ending years. A bar (/) between years (1970/75) indicates the average of the years covered, including the beginning and ending years, or even crop or agreement year, when mentioned in the text.

    Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals as well as percentage changes are due to rounding.

    There are no references to sources in tables and graphs originated in the Banco Central do Brasil.

    Other publications of the Banco Central do Brasil

    Records of Documents Foreign Capital in Brazil – Legislation (in Portuguese and English) Consolidation of Exchange Norms Consolidation of Exchange Norms (exchange transactions) Consolidation of Exchange Norms (floating rates) Consolidation of Exchange Norms (exports) Accounting System of the National Financial System Institutions Consortium Operation Position Agribusiness Credit Manual Rural Credit Manual Norms and Instructions Information Inflation Report (in Portuguese and English)

    Banco Central do Brasil Information Bureau

    Address: Secre/Surel/Diate Edifício-Sede – 2º subsolo Phones: (55.61) 414 (....) 2401, 2402, 2403, 2404, 2405, 2406 SBS – Quadra 3 – Zona Central Fax: (55.61) 321 9453 70074-900 – Brasília – DF

    Internet: http://www.bcb.gov.br E-mail: cap.secre@bcb.gov.br

  • Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil February 2003

    3

    Summary

    The economic scene in December ............................................................. 5

    I. Economic activity .......................................................................................... 7

    II. Money and credit ......................................................................................... 16

    III. Public finance ............................................................................................... 21

    IV. Foreign sector of the Brazilian economy .............................................. 25

    V. International economy ................................................................................ 30

    VI. Main economic policy measures ............................................................. 35

    National Monetary Council Resolutions

    Banco Central do Brasil Circulars

    Statistical tables ........................................................................................... 37

    Appendix......................................................................................................195

  • Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil February 2003

    5

    THE ECONOMIC SCENE IN DECEMBER

    Performance of the Brazilian economy in 2002 was influenced by an internal crisis of confidence caused, to some extent, by the uncertainties of the political transition and by domestic financial market turbulence that made public debt management more difficult. In this context, it is important to note that external financing flows dwindled as the level of risk aversion among international investors increased as a result of sharp exchange rate depreciation and its negative impacts on the inflation trajectory, particularly in the final quarter of the year. On the other hand, the adjustment achieved in the external sector of the economy is worthy of note, as the current account deficit of the balance of payments fell from 4.55% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2001 to just 1.67% in 2002.

    The inflationary spike caused by exchange depreciation generated changes in the relative prices of the economy and resulted in increased output of both exportable goods and import substitutes. Analysis shows that this was a decisive factor underlying the 2.4% expansion registered under 2002 industrial production. Other factors that contributed to the upswing in productive activity in the year were the expanded crop/livestock sector income generated by greater exports and increased petroleum and gas output.

    Once the electoral process had been concluded, the worries surrounding the transition period gradually dissipated, particularly when it became evident that the new administration would follow the general lines of economic policy, based on respect for contracts, fiscal responsibility and the pursuit of stability as essential preconditions for sustained growth. With this, the nation’s international market risk classification turned downward in December, as the rate of exchange appreciated by 2.8% in the month. Another factor that tended to improve expectations among economic agents was the decision taken by the Banco Central Monetary Policy Committee at its December meeting to raise the basic interest rate target by three percentage points.

    However, improvement in both internal and external perceptions of the future of the Brazilian economy occurred in the framework of an international scenario that was clearly unfavorable to the emerging economies. This general wariness mirrored the outlook for weak

  • Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil February 2003

    6

    economic growth among the world’s leading economies, the persistence of a high level of risk aversion caused by highly unsatisfactory corporate results coupled with fear of new accounting scandals and increased tensions between the United States and Iraq.

  • Boletim do Banco Central do Brasil February 2003

    7

    I - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

    In December 2002, industrial output dropped by 1.8% in relation to the previous month, according to indices released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and seasonally adjusted by the Banco Central Economic Department (Depec). Not only was this the first drop after six consecutive months of positive results, it also impacted all use categories, with particularly strong repercussions on capital goods production and the output of eighteen of the twenty segments analyzed by IBGE.

    A breakdown of the productive sector by industrial segment shows that the sharpest declines were registered under mining, nonmetallic minerals and the mechanics industry, with reductions of 7%, 4.6% and 4.5% in that order. The reduction noted in the mining industry in the last two months was mostly due to programmed stoppages for maintenance purposes at petroleum and natural gas fields. In the case of the mechanics industry, the output downturn occurred following accumulated growth of 17% in the six previous months.

    In comparison to output in December 2001, the general industrial indicator moved upward by 5.5%, completing a series of seven months of positive rates when viewed against the monthly result for the same month of the previous year. In the monthly result, emphasis should be given to the expanded output of stainless steel sheets and cold rolled steel and plates; bearings and central air conditioning equipment; automotive vehicles and railway rolling stock; orange juice and unrefined soybean oil. With respect to use categories, production of consumer durables registered the largest positive results (8.8%),

    Industrial production Seasonally adjusted indices

    120

    125

    130

    135

    140

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    20

Recommended

View more >