blunden - solar photovoltaic electricity
DESCRIPTION
Julie Blunden, VP of Public Policy and Corporate Communications for SunPower Corp, presented at the GW Solar Institute Symposium on April 19, 2010. More information at solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.htmlTRANSCRIPT
April, 2010
SunPower Overview
Safe Harbor
2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that do not represent historical
facts and may be based on underlying assumptions. The company uses words and phrases such as
"expects," “believes,” “plans,” “anticipates,” "continue," "growing," "will," to identify forward-looking
statements in this presentation, including forward-looking statements regarding: (a) our plans and
expectations regarding our cost reduction roadmap, (b) cell manufacturing ramp plan, (c) financial
forecasts, (d) future government award funding, (e) future solar and traditional electricity rates, and (f)
future percentage allocation of SunPower solar panels within our systems business. Such forward-looking
statements are based on information available to the company as of the date of this release and involve a
number of risks and uncertainties, some beyond the company's control, that could cause actual results to
differ materially from those anticipated by these forward-looking statements, including risks and
uncertainties such as: (i) the company's ability to obtain and maintain an adequate supply of raw materials
and components, as well as the price it pays for such; (ii) general business and economic conditions,
including seasonality of the industry; (iii) growth trends in the solar power industry; (iv) the continuation of
governmental and related economic incentives promoting the use of solar power; (v) the improved
availability of third-party financing arrangements for the company's customers; (vi) construction difficulties
or potential delays, including permitting and transmission access and upgrades; (vii) the company's ability
to ramp new production lines and realize expected manufacturing efficiencies; (viii) manufacturing
difficulties that could arise; (ix) the success of the company's ongoing research and development efforts to
compete with other companies and competing technologies; and (x) other risks described in the
company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended January 3, 2010, and other filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as
representing the company's views as of any subsequent date, and the company is under no obligation to,
and expressly disclaims any responsibility to, update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a
result of new information, future events or otherwise.
SunPower
>1 GW solar PV deployed
Diversified portfolio: roofs to power plants
2009 revenue of $1.5B
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Commercial Power PlantsResidential
5,000+ Employees; 100% solar
550 MW 2010 production
~1000 dealers and growing rapidly
4+ GW power plant pipeline Publicly listed NASDAQ: SPWRA, SPWRB
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
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History
Original funding VC/DOE/EPRI
Utility-scale solar dish application
High performance required
All-back-contact cell developed
NASA & Honda early customers
Great technology, high cost
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
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SunPower’s Leading Solar Cell Efficiency
Conventional SunPower A-300 SunPower Gen 2
= Average production efficiency
Thin Film
22.4%In Production Today
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22Percent
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
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SunPower: Most Energy Per Meter Squared
Most powerful solar technology on the planet
Direct Control:
Ingot through SystemsWafer Solar Cell Solar PanelIngot SystemPolysilicon
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
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Superior Performance, Superior Quality
World’s Most Efficient Solar Cell
SunPower ® T20 TrackerSunPower ® T10 Roof TileSunPower SunTile®
Residential Rooftop Commercial Rooftop Ground Systems
Class A Fire Rated Up to 10% More Energy Up to 30% More Energy
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Wafer Solar Cell Solar Panel System $/WIngotPolysilicon
Value Chain Cost Distribution
20%
30%
50%
2006 US Solar System Cost Allocation by Category
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© 2010 SunPower Corp.
SunPower’s US Jobs Growth
SunPower US Direct Jobs
– 2004: 40
– 2009: 700
– 2010: 900
2010 US Manufacturing: +100
2010 Dealers: >4000
2011 CVSR: 100s
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© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Manufacturing Location Siting Criteria
Tax Credits / Exemptions
Local Incentives
Long-term demand
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2009 New Capacity (MW)1 California 220
2 New Jersey 57
3 Florida 36
4 Arizona 23
5 Colorado 23
6 Hawaii 14
7 New York 12
8 Massachusetts 10
9 Connecticut 9
10 North Carolina 8
Other 29
Total 441
© 2010 SunPower Corp.Source: SEIA 2009 Year in Review
Grid-Tied, U.S. PV Installations Up 38% in 2009
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-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p
New Grid-Tied PV Installations (MW)
© 2010 SunPower Corp.Source: SEIA 2009 Year in Review
26,500
13,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Global Annual Demand Forecasts (MW)
3rd Party - High
3rd Party - Average
3rd Party - Low
Solar PV Scale: 20 GW Installed Base 2009
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Sources: Barclays, UBS, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, BofA/Merrill Lynch © 2010 SunPower Corp.
Solar PV Uniquely Flexible to Serve All Segments
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Rooftops Distributed
Power Plant
Central Station
Power Plant
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Solar policy design drives relative segment growth
Power Plants for Utilities
Experience
– SCE – 200 MW distributed rooftop
– Florida Power and Light – 35MW
– Exelon 8 MW urban infill
– Xcel 17 MW under construction
– PG&E 210 MW in permitting
Technology
– T5 Rooftile & T0 tracker: most W/meter2
– T20 tracker: highest capacity factor
Return
– LCOE competitive with gas peaker
– Bankability, ease of permitting
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© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Muehlhausen,
Germany, 6 MW
Olivenza, Spain
18 MW
Serpa, Portugal
11 MWIsla Mayor, Spain
8 MWJumilla, Spain
23 MW
Over 250 MW of power plants installed in Europe
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Montalto, Italy
24 MW © 2010 SunPower Corp.
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Solar PV Power Plants Are Cost Competitive
0
0 50 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Levelized Cost ($/MWh)
Renewables
Conventional
$87 - 196
$129 - 206
$57 - 113
$216- 334
$69-96
Gas Peaking
Gas Combined
Cycle
Wind
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
LCOE by Resource $/MWh: 2009 - 2012
Prices include federal incentives
Source: Lazard Capital Markets 3/18/2009© 2010 SunPower Corp.
PV Power Plant LCOE Drivers
Capital cost dominated by PV, BOS, and land
– PV costs driven down per experience curve + technology
– BOS costs reduced by larger plant sizes, experience curve, and higher panel efficiencies
– Land development costs lowered by panel efficiency and scale
Capacity factor increased with tracking systems
– Tracking also delivers more energy during peak demand periods
Cost of capital function of the perceived risk by investors
– Proven technologies and performance lower cost of capital
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© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Crystalline Silicon PV Returns to Learning Curve
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Last 4 data points: the Prometheus Institute
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Mo
du
le A
SP
(2
00
8$)
Cumulative Production (MW)
1979
$33/W
2008
$3.17/W
Silicon
Shortage
81% Progress
Ratio
2012
$1.40/W
Panel Average Sales Price (ASP) 2008$
- Thinner wafers 300 145 microns
- Efficiency 16% 22+%
- Factories 100MW 1,000MW © 2010 SunPower Corp.
Pre-manufactured T20 Trackers Lower BOS Cost
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18 MW Olivenza T20 Tracking System
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
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Constant Power Plant Capacity: 6.5 MW
SunPower Conventional Thin Film / Fixed
34k m2 52k m2 72k m2
SPWR 150% m2
SPWR 210% m2 / -20% kWh
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Annual and Summer Peak Capacity Factor by System Technology
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Las Vegas, NV Plant Capacity Factor based on PV Grid v.11.1
- Tracker annual Capacity Factors > 30% AC
- Peak Summer Capacity Factors > 35%
- Optimize technology choice for land use and delivery preferences
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
Fixed Tilt T20 Tracker T0 Tracker
Annual CF
Summer CF
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Approximate Financed Solar Power Plant Capacity
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Silicon PV Thin Film PV CPV Dish SterlingTrough CLFR CSPHeliostat / Tower
5 GW
1 GW
0.5 GW
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
Actual vs Expected Production (MWh): 106%
Consistent Energy Production: Bavaria Solarpark
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Expected Energy Production Actual Energy Production
2005 2006 2007 2008
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
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© 2010 SunPower Corp.
SunPower Power Plants: any scale, anywhere, fast
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© 2010 SunPower Corp.