bloomberg commodity index (bcom) · pdf file · 2016-06-15commodities business,...

May 2015

BCOM <GO> [email protected] www.bloombergindexes.com

Commentary 02Performance Tables 04Performance Charts 06

Commitment of Traders Report (COT) 11Inventory & Sales Data 12

BCOM Constituent Weights 13Commodity Price Forecasts 14

Top Ranked Commodity Forecasters 15Commodity ETP Fund Flows 16

Term Structures 17Bloomberg Commodity Event Calendar 20

Bloomberg Intelligence: Commodity Dashboards 21 Historical Performance, Volatility & Correlation Charts 22

Bloomberg Professional Commodity Cheatsheet 29

TABLES & CHARTSCOMMODITY INDEX (BCOM)BLOOMBERG

Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) Dropped 2.7% in May, Softs and Industrial Metals Lag

• BCOM dropped 2.7% in May, trailing US equities, US treasuries (BUSY Index <GO>) and the US dollar (BDXY <GO>). • 15 out of 22 BCOM constituents traded lower in May. • Broad based commodity ETPs saw inflows of $284 million, about 3.7% of market cap. • Softs (including Sugar, Coffee) and Industrial Metals (including Aluminum, Nickel) were the worst performing BCOM groups in May, down 7.9% and 7.7% respectively. • BCOM Excess Return Index (BCOM Index <GO>) underperformed BCOM Spot Index (BCOMSP Index <GO>) by 0.11% in May.

The spectacular decline of oil prices, increasing geopolitical tension, and the sluggish rate of growth of the global economy dominated discussions at the Bloomberg sponsored “The Commodity Debate”, on May 14 in New York. Set against the backdrop of investment banks exiting the commodities business, fewer commodity hedge funds and underinvestment by pension plans, prospects for commodity investing still appear high. Bloomberg will continue to engage leading commodity investors and produce educational events. Our next commodity events are being held in Zurich on June 2 and in Paris on June 3.

Grains (20.2% weight in BCOM)

The Bloomberg Grains Index (BCOMGR Index GP W <GO>) continued to be beaten up, and is down 14.7% YTD. Good weather (WETR <GO>) is helping grain production from the European Union to North Africa and China, boosting the EU forecast for global output to about 2% from an all-time high. Farmers worldwide will gather 1.97 billion metric tons of grain in the 2015-16 seasons that starts July 1, the IGC said on May 28. That’s 1.1% more than last month’s forecast. However, the London-based group also said that world consumption will reach a record, citing increased demand for animal-feed.

Across the Midwest, the weather’s been dry enough to get fieldwork done, with enough showers to help seeds germinate and emerge. CBOT-listed wheat and corn futures tumbled more than 14% this year as bumper global harvests added to a glut, driving food costs (FAOFOODI Index <GO>) to the lowest since 2010. China’s demand for soybeans will dominate trading in the crop, leading to record global volumes, according to the IGC’s report.

Good growing conditions prompted the International Grains Council last week to say that global production will be even bigger than previously estimated. Bountiful supplies (BMAP AGPX SOYBEAN PRICE HEATMAP <GO>) mean that money managers last week almost doubled their bets on falling crop prices.

Energy (36.5% weight in BCOM)

Although WTI rose for an 11th week, the longest winning streak since futures started trading in New York in 1983, the price recovery from a six-year low in January is slowing amid speculation a global glut will persist. Saudi Arabia maintained crude output at a record in May. OPEC (OPEC <GO>), which pumps 40% of the world’s crude, is seen sticking with its strategy of favoring market share over supporting prices, while U.S. supply remains near a record (DOESCRUD Index GP <GO>). Saudi Arabia and Iraq are producing 1.1 million barrels a day more than at the last OPEC meeting. OPEC output increased 67,000 barrels to 31.579 million a day in May, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Production from Iraq, the second-biggest of the group’s 12 members, accelerated by 197,000 barrels a day to a record 3.87 million, the survey showed. OPEC exceeded its collective target for a 12th consecutive month in May.

Crude paced gains in gasoline after the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed lowering the mandate for corn ethanol this year and next. After delaying rules for using ethanol, biodiesel and cellulosic fuels for more than a year, the EPA said corn ethanol levels should be set at 13.4 billion gallons this year and 14 billion gallons for 2016. The quota for biodiesel would increase to 1.7 billion gallons this year and 1.8 billion gallons next. This rule may increase refinery demand for oil and be supportive for gasoline.

Futures extended their advance after drillers idled oil rigs for the 25th straight week (RIG<GO>). Baker Hughes Inc. said on May 29 that the number of active oil rigs slipped by a further 13 to 646, down from 1,482 at the start of the year. Crude inventories (DOESCRUD Index HCP <GO>) fell for a fourth week, the longest series of declines since September 2014, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer, fell by 2.8 million barrels to 479.4 million in the week ended May 22. Supplies are, however, still almost 100 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of the year (DOESCRUD Index SEAG <GO>). Production (DOETCRUD Index GP <GO>) rose by 304,000 barrels a day to 9.57 million, according to the EIA. That’s the highest level since January 1983.

BCOM: TABLES & CHARTS - MAY 2015 ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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Industrial Metals (16% weight in BCOM)

While the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index (BCOMIN Index) dropped 7.7% in May, investors are buying into industrial-metal funds at a faster pace than any other commodity, underscoring optimism about the health of the global economy. U.S. ETPs backed by the metals attracted $71.1 million in May, putting flows on track for the biggest monthly increase since 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of May 27. The extra funds represent a 22% increase in market value, more than other commodity groups.

Money managers are betting that China’s efforts to kickstart its slowing economy, including three interest-rate cuts in six months, will succeed in increasing demand for raw materials. The country, the biggest consumer of industrial metals, is expected to lower rates (PBOC <GO>) this year by the most since the global financial crisis, a Bloomberg survey of economists in May showed. China has been responsible for the growth in demand for copper globally over the past 10 years, but for the past year, the figure for demand growth has been flat.

Bloomberg surveyed 12 copper traders and analysts in the last week of May, showing that the majority are bearish on prices. Supply disruptions and shutdowns at mines around the world could support the bullish case for metals. Violent protests against Peru’s Tia Maria mine project in the past two months threaten the nation’s goal of becoming a significant copper producer. Zinc mines in Australia and Ireland are scheduled to close later this year, while Indonesia has banned nickel ore exports.

Precious Metals (15.9% weight in BCOM)

Gold traders should get ready for a change of pace in their markets. Prices have seesawed for the past two months, leaving the metal trapped in the tightest trading range in two years (XAU Curncy GPMA <GO>). That’s historically a sign of more volatility to come. When similar periods of calm blanketed the market, the metal swings 3.3% on average in the five days after breaking out of the band, almost twice the usual weekly change.

Gold moved around $1,200 an ounce as bullish catalysts, such as signs of faster inflation (ILBE <GO>), were offset by speculation the Fed will soon raise interest rates. While the weaker dollar usually draws buyers to gold, there’s also less demand for haven assets with equities near all-time highs.

Livestock (5% weight in BCOM)

The Bloomberg Livestock Index (BCOMLI) had a positive May, gaining 2.3%. The cost of beef is now more than three times as much as pork, compared with an average of 2.2 times in the past decade, according to USDA data. After a virus killed millions of piglets last year, farmers expanded herds and took advantage of lower grain prices to fatten animals. That drove hog prices 33% lower in the past 12 months. Retail pork-chop prices fell 8.6% from a record reached in October, while bacon dropped 15% from its peak in June. Hedge funds are now betting the slump won’t last as the lure of lower-cost meat stimulates demand (BIL 1091 <GO>).

Softs (6.4% weight in BCOM)

There’s nothing sweet in the sugar market for bulls these days. The Bloomberg Sugar Index (BCOMSB Index) was dragged lower as prices tumbled to a six-year low on May 27 as Brazil, the world’s biggest producer and exporter, saw the real extend a slump against the dollar. The commodity recorded a third monthly loss since January, crumbling under the pressure of the weaker South American currency that’s cutting costs for growers and adding to concern the global glut will keep expanding. World production is set to exceed demand for a fifth straight season, the International Sugar Organization said in May, increasing its outlook for the surplus. Farmers in Brazil’s main growing region are poised to collect a bigger cane crop as rains revive plants after a drought last year. Futures have tumbled 30% in the past 12 months, the biggest loss among non-energy materials tracked by the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Even though prices have fallen, Brazil’s farmers are anxious to increase exports that are priced in dollars. Hedge funds are betting the slump in prices will continue. Money managers held a net-bearish position of 32,025 futures and options contracts as of May 19, the latest U.S. government data show. The investors have been net-short for 16 straight weeks.

Arabica-coffee futures fell to the lowest in more than a year amid signs of increasing global supplies and improved crop prospects for Brazil, the world’s biggest producer. In 2014, parched Brazilian crops sent arabica futures surging 50% in New York, the biggest gain among 22 raw materials tracked by BCOM. Arabica, favored by specialty roasters such as Starbucks, is the worst performer in the index this year, as ample rains boost the outlook for South American harvests.


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BCOM Composite Indices

May Apr Mar YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearBloomberg Commodity Index BCOM -2.70% 5.73% -5.14% -3.24% -24.57% -21.37% -19.48% -33.03% 4.76%

Bloomberg Commodity TR Index BCOMTR -2.70% 5.73% -5.14% -3.23% -24.55% -21.24% -19.21% -23.38% 74.94%Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index BCOMSP -2.59% 6.87% -4.75% -0.10% -22.04% -16.04% -1.74% 60.17% 209.19%

Bloomberg Roll Select BCOMRS -3.04% 4.83% -4.86% -3.90% -23.22% -20.02% -12.80% 8.22% 130.63%1 Month Forward BCOMF1 -2.88% 5.54% -4.97% -3.21% -23.22% -18.88% -14.10% -13.84% 89.88% 2 Month Forward BCOMF2 -2.91% 5.17% -5.00% -3.66% -23.10% -20.74% -15.73% -4.06% 111.66% 3 Month Forward BCOMF3 -2.89% 4.93% -4.87% -3.63% -22.24% -19.39% -13.56% 4.60% 120.01% 4 Month Forward BCOMF4 -2.89% 4.85% -4.70% -3.47% -21.62% -18.38% -10.45% 16.80% 5 Month Forward BCOMF5 -2.88% 4.73% -4.63% -3.36% -21.62% -19.54% -10.84% 20.01% 6 Month Forward BCOMF6 -2.89% 4.54% -4.58% -3.48% -21.27% -19.26% -10.43% 23.89%

Energy BCOMEN -2.13% 13.84% -9.22% 2.27% -41.81% -29.19% -47.68% -82.24% -26.33%Petroleum BCOMPE -1.08% 17.87% -10.65% 6.72% -41.03% -30.41% -23.81% -53.11% 128.49%Agriculture BCOMAG -3.51% -0.53% -5.37% -12.49% -29.02% -23.69% -0.93% -15.27% -47.11%

Softs BCOMSO -7.94% 7.79% -8.97% -14.37% -33.55% -38.16% -16.95% -42.34% -63.50%Grains BCOMGR -3.07% -4.07% -3.56% -14.63% -29.81% -22.69% 1.07% -17.83% -53.27%

Industrial Metals BCOMIN -7.70% 7.80% -1.07% -5.79% -13.12% -20.54% -26.47% 14.97% 16.59%Precious Metals BCOMPR 1.29% -0.84% -1.82% 1.74% -6.58% -29.80% -5.99% 120.90% 89.12%

Livestock BCOMLI 2.34% 1.73% 1.31% -6.08% -6.64% 2.46% 0.00% -51.36% -63.10%Ex-Energy BCOMXE -3.02% 1.64% -2.98% -7.12% -18.65% -21.86% -7.97% 9.96% -10.40%

Ex-Petroleum BCOMXPE -3.33% 1.69% -3.17% -8.03% -22.60% -22.16% -22.44% -33.56%Ex-Agriculture BCOMXAG -2.40% 8.23% -5.04% 0.47% -23.33% -21.49% -28.28% -42.76%

Ex-Softs BCOMXSO -2.32% 5.58% -4.85% -2.51% -23.99% -20.14% -20.23% -33.21%Ex-Grains BCOMXGR -2.63% 7.69% -5.45% -0.89% -23.68% -22.02% -24.99% -39.51%

Ex-Industrial Metals BCOMXIM -1.69% 5.32% -5.91% -2.67% -26.82% -21.64% -18.19% -44.82%Ex-Precious Metals BCOMXPM -3.42% 7.01% -5.77% -4.30% -27.68% -20.54% -22.35% -42.98%

Ex-Livestock BCOMXLI -2.95% 5.94% -5.46% -3.04% -25.62% -22.65% -20.54% -31.40%Ex-Agriculture & Livestock BCOMXAL -2.74% 8.72% -5.49% 1.06% -24.91% -23.51% -30.55% -42.06%

BCOM Single Commodity Indices

May Apr Mar YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearNatural Gas BCOMNG -5.70% 1.93% -4.73% -14.48% -48.53% -32.69% -81.68% -98.64% -98.79%WTI Crude BCOMCL -0.68% 20.82% -8.71% 2.17% -44.56% -34.60% -37.44% -65.86% 79.98%

Brent Crude BCOMCO -2.74% 18.17% -12.28% 4.26% -45.41% -34.84% -10.54% -27.81% 400.63%ULS Diesel BCOMHO -1.83% 15.17% -11.69% 8.10% -31.39% -25.61% -8.98% -38.01% 138.14%

Unleaded Gasoline BCOMRB 1.65% 14.94% -10.17% 18.01% -35.36% -17.31% 20.56% -8.28% 327.74%Corn BCOMCN -4.03% -4.61% -4.32% -15.03% -31.58% -29.40% -1.04% -38.07% -82.94%

Soybeans BCOMSY -4.30% -0.18% -5.67% -9.61% -27.69% 6.27% 50.09% 62.52% 157.62%Wheat BCOMWH 0.63% -7.06% -0.24% -18.83% -28.30% -39.23% -41.34% -65.66% -93.14%

Soybean Oil BCOMBO 5.31% 3.51% -7.77% 2.40% -16.31% -38.62% -28.54% -24.01% -60.19%Soybean Meal BCOMSM -3.29% -3.29% -4.56% -10.20% -21.39% 44.03% 122.12% 215.18% 790.49%HRW Wheat BCOMKW -0.05% -11.46% 3.66% -21.30% -33.89% -35.47% -25.62% -37.06% -70.63%

Copper BCOMHG -5.49% 5.27% 1.80% -3.51% -12.90% -21.08% -17.95% 85.41% 127.56%Alumnium BCOMAL -10.73% 7.62% -1.92% -7.95% -9.93% -29.10% -37.55% -44.80% -64.09%

Zinc BCOMZS -7.15% 12.88% 0.74% -0.26% 4.19% 3.65% -7.10% 22.32% -12.49%Nickel BCOMNI -9.70% 12.48% -12.23% -17.27% -35.67% -26.12% -44.87% -21.86% 74.09%Gold BCOMGC 0.54% -0.07% -2.55% 0.23% -4.92% -25.12% -5.09% 129.58% 79.38%Silver BCOMSI 3.39% -2.94% 0.24% 6.50% -11.84% -42.02% -14.10% 76.90% 74.84%Sugar BCOMSB -9.10% 11.32% -13.36% -16.64% -42.59% -54.95% -18.03% -38.61% -33.18%Coffee BCOMKC -8.22% 1.47% -5.41% -26.97% -35.54% -41.21% -37.28% -62.87% -82.81%Cotton BCOMCT -5.20% 7.36% -2.82% 6.11% -16.53% 1.17% 20.32% -31.08% -86.35%

Lean Hogs BCOMLH 2.78% 7.42% -6.51% -15.79% -32.92% -20.15% -30.81% -76.69% -89.91%Live Cattle BCOMLC 2.05% -1.72% 6.14% -0.40% 12.67% 17.18% 22.81% -26.39% -25.17%

Index Name Ticker

Index Name Ticker

PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity Indices

2015

2015


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BCOM Composite Roll Select Indices

May Apr Mar YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearBCOM Roll Select BCOMRS -3.04% 4.83% -4.86% -3.90% -23.22% -20.02% -12.80% 8.22% 130.63%

Roll Select Agriculture BCOMRAG -3.89% -0.91% -5.22% -13.40% -28.42% -22.48% 5.45% 22.29% -4.45%Roll Select Ex-Ags & Livestock BBURXAL -3.02% 7.62% -5.17% 0.44% -23.37% -22.42% -24.51% -6.35%

Roll Select Grains BCOMRGR -3.45% -4.15% -3.31% -14.67% -29.80% -23.15% 5.27% 22.03% -14.27%Roll Select Softs BCOMRSO -8.10% 6.53% -8.95% -17.09% -32.42% -34.49% -6.95% -16.27% -33.26%

Roll Select Livestock BCOMRLI 1.67% 0.29% 2.08% -4.95% -2.41% 8.35% 20.37% 6.48%Roll Select Energy BCOMREN -2.86% 11.64% -8.50% 1.32% -38.98% -27.64% -38.52% -58.03%

Roll Select Ex-Energy BCOMRXE -3.15% 1.32% -2.87% -7.45% -17.91% -20.57% -3.04% 51.85%Roll Select Petroleum BCOMRPE -2.10% 15.08% -10.26% 4.14% -39.10% -27.62% -16.22% -6.07% 578.84%

Roll Select Industrial Metals BCOMRIN -7.28% 7.60% -1.08% -5.61% -12.54% -18.94% -23.68% 49.62% 79.74%Roll Select Precious Metals BCOMRPR 1.29% -0.83% -1.81% 1.81% -6.47% -29.67% -5.52% 123.98% 94.59%

BCOM Single Commodity Roll Select Indices

May Apr Mar YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-YearNatural Gas RS BCOMRNG -5.41% 1.51% -2.93% -9.87% -42.24% -31.29% -71.66% -94.33% -74.39%WTI Crude RS BCOMRCL -2.52% 15.04% -8.77% -1.15% -44.20% -33.03% -27.39% -14.59% 667.64%

Brent Crude RS BCOMRCO -2.69% 14.32% -10.82% 2.96% -39.85% -29.37% -9.24% 9.11% 727.62%ULS Diesel RS BCOMRHO -1.83% 15.17% -11.69% 8.10% -32.05% -27.10% -12.06% -9.47% 337.32%

Unleaded Gasoline RS BCOMRRB -0.30% 16.61% -10.86% 13.22% -33.19% -11.26% 17.00% 14.21% 530.44%Corn RS BCOMRCN -4.44% -4.62% -3.98% -14.25% -30.90% -34.04% -1.24% -9.31% -69.67%

Soybeans RS BCOMRSY -4.88% -0.31% -5.25% -10.35% -26.87% 10.49% 58.49% 105.42% 199.82%Wheat RS BCOMRWH 0.63% -7.06% -0.28% -19.58% -30.83% -38.55% -34.31% -30.15% -66.39%

Soybean Oil RS BCOMRBO 4.47% 3.87% -7.68% 1.95% -17.10% -36.89% -23.05% -4.14% -32.58%Soybean Meal RS BCOMRSM -3.84% -4.21% -4.56% -11.56% -20.82% 54.96% 132.69% 271.72% 961.14%HRW Wheat RS BCOMRKW -0.05% -11.46% 3.30% -21.49% -34.07% -34.61% -21.46% 6.33% -30.39%

Copper RS BCOMRHG -5.59% 5.28% 1.80% -3.60% -12.85% -21.08% -16.55% 125.13% 230.36%Alumnium RS BCOMRAL -9.12% 7.04% -1.85% -6.98% -8.67% -25.50% -33.06% -25.84% -42.10%

Zinc RS BCOMRZS -7.15% 12.57% 0.54% -0.74% 4.49% 6.25% -4.34% 65.25% 40.28%Nickel RS BCOMRNI -9.68% 12.32% -12.12% -17.20% -34.96% -25.02% -42.64% 8.07% 198.63%Gold RS BCOMRGC 0.54% -0.07% -2.55% 0.25% -4.90% -25.16% -5.01% 128.86% 80.19%Silver RS BCOMRSI 3.37% -2.88% 0.27% 6.71% -11.44% -41.42% -12.53% 88.42% 93.79%Sugar RS BCOMRSB -9.24% 9.29% -13.60% -21.85% -40.08% -48.86% -12.44% 7.88% 25.62%Coffee RS BCOMRKC -8.39% 0.74% -4.85% -25.88% -33.69% -39.54% -30.26% -54.01% -71.82%Cotton RS BCOMRCT -5.20% 7.36% -2.82% 5.37% -19.07% -0.56% 34.44% -7.92% -75.11%

Lean Hogs RS BCOMRLH 1.04% 3.94% -4.16% -10.37% -20.87% 0.04% 2.41% -3.57% 6.37%Live Cattle RS BCOMRLC 2.05% -1.72% 5.89% -1.38% 9.91% 12.21% 29.70% 6.42% 62.05%

PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity Roll Select Indices

Index Name Ticker 2015

Index Name Ticker 2015


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Commodities vs. Equities vs. Bond vs. USD

PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity IndicesFigure 1: Return

Figure 3: Return

Figure 5: Correlation (Realized, 60 days)

Figure 2: Volatility (Realized, 60 days)


BCOM was positively correlated with U.S. large cap stocks and US Treasuries, and was negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar throughout May.

The Bloomberg Commodity Indices were down in May. The 60-day moving volatilities for the main BCOM family have come down.

Commodities underperformed equities, bonds and the U.S. dollar in May. The 60-day moving volatility for commodities remained higher than equities, bonds and the dollar throughout the quarter.

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Figure 8: Return vs. Previous Quarters

PERFORMANCE: BCOM SubgroupsFigure 6: Return Figure 7: Volatility (Realized, 60 days)

Figure 9: Volatility vs. Previous Quarters

Figure 10: Correlation Between Energy and GroupsEnergy was positively correlated with Grains, Industrial Metals, Precious Metals, Softs and Livestock during May.

Figure 11: Correlation (1-year Daily Returns)

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PERFORMANCE: BCOM Single Commodity IndicesFigure 13: Return

Figure 14: Volatility

Figure 15: Correlation

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Nick

el

Gold

Silv

er

Suga

r

Coff

ee

Cott

on

Lean

Hog

s

Live

Catt

le

Natural Gas 100%WTI Crude 22% 100%Brent Crude 21% 94% 100%ULS Diesel 22% 89% 97% 100%Unleaded Gasoline 22% 88% 94% 93% 100%Corn 3% 16% 15% 16% 13% 100%Soybeans 2% 18% 17% 18% 18% 64% 100%Wheat 4% 5% 6% 7% 4% 59% 34% 100%Soybean Oil 17% 36% 36% 37% 37% 38% 58% 18% 100%Soybean Meal -2% 7% 7% 8% 8% 58% 89% 31% 25% 100%HRW Wheat 6% 7% 8% 9% 6% 56% 30% 93% 17% 27% 100%Copper -7% 26% 24% 23% 19% 18% 16% 7% 15% 9% 4% 100%Alumnium 7% 25% 23% 23% 22% 15% 12% 2% 16% 7% 1% 51% 100%Zinc -9% 21% 19% 18% 17% 13% 13% -1% 20% 5% -3% 65% 67% 100%Nickel -5% 13% 11% 10% 14% 8% 10% 1% 13% 2% 0% 46% 46% 51% 100%Gold -8% 19% 16% 21% 20% 14% 8% 7% 19% 1% 6% 19% 12% 14% 8% 100%Silver 5% 26% 24% 29% 28% 16% 16% 9% 26% 8% 7% 34% 20% 24% 16% 83% 100%Sugar -1% 10% 7% 8% 5% 18% 22% 16% 17% 17% 13% 21% 23% 27% 23% 10% 13% 100%Coffee 3% 8% 4% 5% 6% 6% 12% 4% 13% 9% 3% 4% 3% 10% 9% 11% 17% 22% 100%Cotton 0% 18% 21% 23% 18% 11% 24% 6% 23% 17% 3% 18% 10% 8% 17% 7% 12% 20% 5% 100%Lean Hogs 6% 14% 11% 10% 11% -5% -2% -7% 2% -3% -6% 13% 11% 18% 5% 4% 10% 6% 12% 9% 100%Live Cattle 6% 16% 14% 12% 14% 15% 8% 12% 17% 3% 10% 12% 12% 12% 9% 13% 20% 15% 10% 14% 28% 100%

S&P 500 Index 2% 14% 17% 13% 12% 10% 11% 13% 7% 9% 12% 15% 14% 10% 7% -15% -4% 4% -9% 18% 3% 0%

Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index

-3% -12% -12% -8% -8% -1% -7% -4% -9% -6% 0% -10% -14% -12% -2% 26% 10% 0% 1% 7% -5% 0%

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index

-8% -35% -32% -34% -28% -18% -16% -13% -19% -10% -15% -10% -6% -2% -6% -37% -28% -21% -18% -28% -13% -10%

LivestockEnergy Grains Industrial Metals Precious Softs


8

PERFORMANCE: Single Commodity IndiciesENERGY GROUP

GRAINS GROUPFigure 19: Volatility (Realized, 60 days)

INDUSTRIAL METALS GROUPFigure 21: Volatility (Realized, 60 days)

PRECIOUS METALS GROUP

Figure 16: Return

Figure 22: Return

Figure 20: Return



Figure 18: Return

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Natural Gas WTI Crude Brent Crude ULS Diesel UnleadedGasoline

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Corn Soybeans Wheat Soybean Oil SoybeanMeal

HRW Wheat

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

-25%-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%

Copper Alumnium Zinc Nickel

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Gold Silver

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Natural Gas WTI Crude Brent Crude ULS Diesel UnleadedGasoline

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Corn Soybeans Wheat Soybean Oil SoybeanMeal

HRW Wheat

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Gold Silver

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14


9

SOFTS GROUPFigure 25: Volatility (Realized, 60 days)

LIVESTOCK GROUPFigure 27: Volatility (Realized, 60 days)

Figure 24: Return

Figure 26: Return

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Sugar Coffee Cotton

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Lean Hogs Live Cattle

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Sugar Coffee Cotton

May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


May '15 Apr '15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14


10

COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT: COMMODITY FUTURES & OPTIONS, MONEY MANAGERS COT <GO>

Group CommodityEnd of May

2015 Net Position (Lots)

End of Apr 2015 Net

Position (Lots)

Notional Change ($ mill, using end of May 2015 price)

End of May 2015 Notional ($ mill)

Natural Gas -90,526 -149,840 1,674 -2,555 WTI Crude 245,127 258,131 -755 14,225 Brent Crude 222,357 276,888 -3,475 14,169 ULS Diesel -4,734 -13,614 709 -378 Gasoline 23,475 25,669 -184 1,970 Total -2,031 27,431 Corn -140,443 -92,383 -853 -2,493 Soybeans -103,963 -32,033 -3,318 -4,795 Wheat -83,335 -106,913 582 -2,056 Soybean Oil 28,571 16,773 228 551 Soybean Meal -9,319 1,770 -335 -281 HRW Wheat 3,515 -13,171 438 92 Total -3,259 -8,983 Copper 28,314 13,923 1,027 2,020 Aluminum 97,224 78,773 803 4,233 Zinc 72,577 86,734 -769 3,943 Nickel 11,556 6,905 354 879 Total 1,415 11,075 Gold 73,025 60,653 1,468 8,667 Silver 41,555 5,530 3,014 3,477 Total 4,483 12,144 Sugar -72,671 -37,439 -477 -983 Coffee -18,682 -5,093 -632 -869 Cotton 27,475 49,120 -685 870 Total -1,794 -983 Live Cattle 92,468 77,354 918 5,615 Lean Hogs 26,701 15,903 359 888 Total 1,277 6,503

Total 91 47,188

Livestock

Energy

Grains

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Softs


11

GLOBAL COMMODITIES INVENTORIES AND SALES DATAECO17 <GO>

Group Inventory/SalesRelated

CommoditiesUnit

End of May 2015

End of Apr 2014

Change (%)

DOE Natural Gas Total Inventory Natural Gas bcf 2,101 1,710 23%DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory WTI, Brent mm barrels 479 491 -2%DOE Cushing Oklahoma Crude Oil Total Stocks WTI, Brent mm barrels 60 62 -3%DOE Distillate Fuel Oil Total Inventory ULS Diesel mm barrels 129 129 0%DOE Motor Gasoline Total Inventory Gasoline mm barrels 221 227 -3%USDA Corn Total Export Sales Corn thousand MT 648 946 -31%USDA Soybeans Total Export Sales Soybeans thousand MT 378 315 20%USDA All Wheat Total Export Sales Wheat, HRW Wheat thousand MT 296 404 -27%USDA Soybean Oil Total Export Sales Soybean Oil thousand MT 9 32 -71%USDA Soybean Cake Meal Total Export Sales Soybean Meal thousand MT 244 137 78%Comex Copper Total Inventory Copper thousand short ton 23 24 -5%LME Copper Total Inventory Copper mm MT 6 7 -5%LME Primary Aluminum Total Inventory Aluminum mm MT 75 76 -2%LME Zinc Total Inventory Zinc mm MT 9 9 -3%LME Nickel Total Inventory Nickel mm MT 9 9 4%Comex Gold Total Inventory Gold mm ounces 8 8 1%Comex Silver Total Inventory Silver mm ounces 179 174 3%

Softs USDA All Upland Cotton Total Export Sales Cotton thousand bales 175 167 5%USDA Cattle Slaughter Estimates Daily Live Cattle thousand heads 115 115 0%USDA Hogs Slaughter Estimates Daily Lean Hogs thousand heads 422 425 -1%

Livestock

Energy

Grains

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals


12

BCOM CONSTITUENT WEIGHTSBCOM Index MEMB <GO>

Group Commodity29 May 2015

Actual Weight

30 April 2015 Actual Weight

May 2015 Weight Change

2015 Target Weight

Natural Gas 8.01% 8.27% -0.26% 8.74% WTI Crude 9.57% 9.39% 0.18% 7.84% Brent Crude 9.08% 8.95% 0.13% 7.16% ULS Diesel 4.35% 4.31% 0.04% 3.76% Gasoline 5.50% 5.27% 0.23% 3.69% Total 36.51% 36.19% 0.32% 31.19% Corn 6.38% 6.48% -0.10% 7.25% Soybeans 4.99% 5.08% -0.09% 5.68% Wheat 2.72% 2.63% 0.09% 3.33% Soybean Oil 2.81% 2.60% 0.21% 2.81% Soybean Meal 2.35% 2.37% -0.02% 2.75% HRW Wheat 0.94% 0.91% 0.03% 1.17% Total 20.19% 20.07% 0.12% 22.98% Copper 7.40% 7.63% -0.23% 7.54% Aluminum 4.40% 4.81% -0.41% 4.59% Zinc 2.45% 2.57% -0.12% 2.40% Nickel 1.71% 1.84% -0.13% 2.12% Total 15.96% 16.85% -0.89% 16.65% Gold 11.62% 11.25% 0.37% 11.90% Silver 4.29% 4.04% 0.25% 4.28% Total 15.91% 15.29% 0.62% 16.18% Sugar 3.22% 3.45% -0.23% 4.00% Coffee 1.58% 1.68% -0.10% 2.21% Cotton 1.60% 1.64% -0.04% 1.51% Total 6.40% 6.77% -0.37% 7.72% Live Cattle 3.01% 2.90% 0.11% 3.33% Lean Hogs 2.03% 1.93% 0.10% 1.94% Total 5.04% 4.83% 0.21% 5.27%

Energy

Livestock

Softs

Precious Metals

Industrial Metals

Grains


13

COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTSCPFC <GO>

Group Commodity Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16

Forward 2.69 2.69 2.99 3.04Forecast 2.70 2.93 3.40 3.56Forward 58.14 60.85 61.59 62.22Forecast 55.00 59.00 65.00 68.00Forward 64.22 66.80 67.92 68.82Forecast 60.00 65.00 69.40 71.50Forward 191.73 196.97 200.95 203.59Forecast 180.00 186.00 205.00 211.00Forward 199.71 195.24 176.86 184.07Forecast 190.00 180.00 190.00 200.00Forward 361.44 358.46 369.97 379.88Forecast 373.00 385.50 402.50 419.50Forward 954.04 915.20 909.25 916.49Forecast 960.00 926.50 950.00 969.00Forward 489.38 484.28 499.72 513.27Forecast 520.00 540.00 540.50 548.00Forward 6,109 6,015 6,023 6,028Forecast 6,150 6,400 6,500 6,488Forward 1,774 1,741 1,765 1,777Forecast 1,874 1,900 1,940 1,950Forward 2,223 2,188 2,197 2,201Forecast 2,205 2,294 2,341 2,400Forward 12,960 12,622 12,665 12,705Forecast 15,180 16,000 17,578 18,594Forward 1,196 1,190 1,191 1,193Forecast 1,193 1,190 1,220 1,250Forward 16.61 16.73 16.79 16.82Forecast 16.55 17.00 17.30 18.00Forward 12.53 12.28 13.59 13.62Forecast 13.26 14.13 14.80 14.30Forward 132.06 128.53 132.75 136.18Forecast 145.00 156.00 155.00 170.00Forward 64.84 65.21 64.70 64.74Forecast 63.00 63.00 65.00 66.00

Softs

Bloomberg survey of commodity analysts

Energy

Grains

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Natural Gas

WTI Crude

Brent Crude

ULS Diesel

Gasoline

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Copper

Aluminum

Coffee

Cotton

Zinc

Nickel

Gold

Silver

Sugar


14

TOP COMMODITIES FORECASTERSRANX <GO>

Group Commoditity Rank Forecaster FirmAverage

Margin of Error

1 Daniel Hynes Australia & New Zealand Banking Group 4.51%2 Jason Schenker Prestige Economics 9.08%3 Francisco Blanch Bank of America Merrill Lynch 11.88%4 Jan Stuart Credit Suisse Group 12.87%5 Daniela Corsini Intesa Sanpaolo 15.65%1 Daniel Hynes Australia & New Zealand Banking Group 4.56%2 Marshall Adkins Raymond James & Associates 14.73%3 Soozhana Choi Deutsche Bank 16.06%4 Jason Schenker Prestige Economics 16.24%5 Jan Stuart Credit Suisse Group 16.59%1 Daniel Hynes Australia & New Zealand Banking Group 4.74%2 Marshall Adkins Raymond James & Associates 13.67%3 Francisco Blanch Bank of America Merrill Lynch 13.68%4 Greg Pardy RBC Capital Markets 15.40%5 Jason Schenker Prestige Economics 16.25%1 Michael Lewis Deutsche Bank 6.71%2 James Glenn National Australia Bank 7.86%3 Ilan Goldfajn Itau Unibanco Holding 8.26%4 Daniela Corsini Intesa Sanpaolo 9.07%5 Caroline Bain Capital Economics 9.73%1 Caroline Bain Capital Economics 3.16%2 Ilan Goldfajn Itau Unibanco Holding 4.23%3 Michael Lewis Deutsche Bank 5.55%1 Michael Lewis Deutsche Bank 4.36%2 Daniela Corsini Intesa Sanpaolo 4.88%3 Jason Schenker Prestige Economics 5.88%1 Ilan Goldfajn Itau Unibanco Holding 5.48%2 Michael Lewis Deutsche Bank 5.98%3 Jason Schenker Prestige Economics 6.15%1 Michael Lewis Deutsche Bank 11.57%2 James Glenn National Australia Bank 14.33%3 Caroline Bain Capital Economics 16.08%1 Barnabas Gan Oversea-Chinese Banking 9.24%2 Cailey Barker Numis Securities 9.63%3 Georgette Boele ABN Amro Bank 9.64%4 Caroline Bain Capital Economics 10.15%5 Paul Horsnell Standard Chartered Bank 10.66%1 Jens Pedersen Danske Bank 3.85%2 Cailey Barker Numis Securities 4.07%3 Ilan Goldfajn Itau Unibanco Holding 4.13%1 Georgette Boele ABN Amro Bank 8.94%2 Justin Smirk Westpac Banking 9.78%3 Paul Horsnell Standard Chartered Bank 10.92%

MethodologyBloomberg ranked forecasters based on the accuracy of their forecasts for the most recent eight quarters ending on March 31, 2015. Accuracy, gauged by average margin of error, was calculated by subtracting the forecast from the actual spot rate and dividing the result by the actual spot rate. Bloomberg's Commodity Forecasting (CPFC) function was used to find forecasts from the second quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2015. Each of the eight forecasts was weighted equally. Only the top three forecasters are displayed.

To qualify for each category, an individual had to submit four or more forecasts, at least two of them for the past four quarters.

As of: April 1, 2015

Energy

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Natural Gas

WTI Crude

Brent Crude

Overall

Copper

Aluminum

Zinc

Nickel

Overall

Gold

Silver


15

COMMODITY FUND FLOWS FOR US-LISTED ETPsXLTP FLOW <GO>

Report Period:4/30/2015 - 5/29/2015

Net Flows ($ mill)

Beginning Fund Market Cap

($ mill)

% of Funds Market Cap

283.87 7,767.86 3.65%-509.64 8,937.18 -5.70%89.17 1,510.75 5.90%-0.11 30.74 -0.34%71.13 321.78 22.10%

-1,043.25 44,314.68 -2.35%-1,108.83 62,882.98 -1.76%

All Commodities Sector: Top 10 Creations

Ticker Name Net Flows ($ mill)


($ mill)


DBC US PowerShares DB Commodity Index 132.26 3,121.80 4.24%UWTI US VelocityShares 3x Long Crude ETN 110.70 813.58 13.61%FTGC US First Trust Global Tactical Co 71.96 227.40 31.65%DBB US PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund 69.85 204.93 34.08%DGAZ US VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN 44.01 48.82 90.14%DJP US iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index 41.16 1,305.18 3.15%IAU US iShares Gold Trust 40.57 6,407.24 0.63%DBA US PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund 35.98 863.87 4.17%JO US iPath Bloomberg Coffee Subindex 26.53 82.80 32.04%USCI US United States Commodity Index 25.78 532.34 4.84%

All Commodities Sector: Top 10 Redemptions

Ticker Name Net Flows ($ mill)


($ mill)


GLD US SPDR Gold Shares -891.27 28,600.30 -3.12%USO US United States Oil Fund LP -265.85 2,742.36 -9.69%SLV US iShares Silver Trust -177.21 5,416.51 -3.27%UNG US United States Natural Gas Fund -116.62 684.58 -17.04%OIL US iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil -63.19 1,146.91 -5.51%DBO US PowerShares DB Oil Fund -59.85 696.93 -8.59%UGAZ US VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN -57.77 495.89 -11.65%UCO US ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude -33.78 1,093.83 -3.09%DWTI US eVelocityShares 3x Inverse Crud -33.32 199.70 -16.68%SCO US ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil -19.68 280.09 -7.03%

Sector

LivestockIndustrial MetalsPrecious Metals

Total

Broad BasedEnergy

Agriculture


16

COMMODITY FUTURES TERM STRUCTUREENERGY GROUP

GRAINS GROUP

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

JUN

15

DEC

15JU

N 1

6DE

C 16

JUN

17

DEC

17JU

N 1

8DE

C 18

JUN

19

DEC

19JU

N 2

0DE

C 20

JUN

21

DEC

21JU

N 2

2DE

C 22

JUN

23

DEC

23JU

N 2

4DE

C 24

JUN

25

DEC

25JU

N 2

6DE

C 26

JUN

27

Natural Gas

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

40

50

60

70

JUN

15

SEP

15DE

C 15

MAR

16

JUN

16

SEP

16DE

C 16

MAR

17

JUN

17

SEP

17DE

C 17

MAR

18

JUN

18

SEP

18DE

C 18

MAR

19

JUN

19

SEP

19DE

C 19

MAR

20

JUN

20

SEP

20DE

C 20

WTI Crude

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

5060708090

JUN

15

OCT

15

FEB

16

JUN

16

OCT

16

FEB

17

JUN

17

OCT

17

FEB

18

JUN

18

OCT

18

FEB

19

JUN

19

OCT

19

FEB

20

JUN

20

OCT

20

FEB

21

JUN

21

OCT

21

FEB

22

Brent Crude

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

150170190210230

MAY

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

NO

V 15

JAN

16

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

NO

V 16

JAN

17

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

SEP

17

NO

V 17

JAN

18

MAR

18

MAY

18

JUL

18

ULS Diesel

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

140

160

180

200

MAY

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

NO

V 15

JAN

16

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

NO

V 16

JAN

17

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

SEP

17

NO

V 17

JAN

18

MAR

18

Unleaded Gasoline

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

450

500

550

600

MAY

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

DEC

15

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

DEC

16

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

#N/A

Inva

lidSe

curit

y

Wheat

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

3030.5

3131.5

3232.5

3333.5

3434.5

MAY

15

JUL

15AU

G 15

SEP

15O

CT 1

5DE

C 15

JAN

16

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16AU

G 16

SEP

16O

CT 1

6DE

C 16

JAN

17

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17AU

G 17

SEP

17O

CT 1

7

Soybean Oil

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

300

350

400

450

MAY

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

DEC

15

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

DEC

16

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

SEP

17

Corn

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

850

900

950

1000

1050

MAY

15

JUL

15

AUG

15

SEP

15

NO

V 15

JAN

16

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

AUG

16

SEP

16

NO

V 16

JAN

17

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

AUG

17

Soybeans

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015


17

COMMODITY FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE

INDUSTRIAL METALS GROUP

PRECIOUS METALS GROUP

280

290

300

310

320

330

MAY

15

JUL

15AU

G 15

SEP

15O

CT 1

5DE

C 15

JAN

16

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16AU

G 16

SEP

16O

CT 1

6DE

C 16

JAN

17

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17AU

G 17

SEP

17O

CT 1

7

Soybean Meal

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

460480500520540560580600

MAY

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

DEC

15

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

DEC

16

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

#N/A

Inva

lid…

#N/A

Inva

lid…

#N/A

Inva

lid…

HRW Wheat

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

250255260265270275280285290295

MAY

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

NO

V 15

JAN

16

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

NO

V 16

JAN

17

MAR

17

MAY

17

SEP

17

MAR

18

JUL

18

DEC

18

MAY

19

SEP

19

MAR

20

Copper

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

170018001900200021002200230024002500

MAY

15

OCT

15

MAR

16

AUG

16JA

N 1

7JU

N 1

7N

OV

17AP

R 18

SEP

18FE

B 19

JUL

19DE

C 19

MAY

20

OCT

20

MAR

21

AUG

21JA

N 2

2JU

N 2

2N

OV

22AP

R 23

SEP

23FE

B 24

JUL

24DE

C 24

MAY

25

Aluminum

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

11501170119012101230125012701290

MAY

15

JUN

15

JUL

15AU

G 15

OCT

15

DEC

15FE

B 16

APR

16JU

N 1

6AU

G 16

OCT

16

DEC

16FE

B 17

JUN

17

DEC

17JU

N 1

8DE

C 18

JUN

19

DEC

19JU

N 2

0DE

C 20

Gold

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

1515.5

1616.5

1717.5

1818.5

MAY

15

JUN

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

DEC

15

JAN

16

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

DEC

16

JAN

17

MAR

17

JUL

17

DEC

17

JUL

18

DEC

18

JUL

19

DEC

19

Silver

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

20502100215022002250230023502400

MAY

15

AUG

15N

OV

15FE

B 16

MAY

16

AUG

16N

OV

16FE

B 17

MAY

17

AUG

17N

OV

17FE

B 18

MAY

18

AUG

18N

OV

18FE

B 19

MAY

19

AUG

19N

OV

19FE

B 20

MAY

20

Zinc

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

1100011500120001250013000135001400014500

MAY

15

AUG

15N

OV

15FE

B 16

MAY

16

AUG

16N

OV

16FE

B 17

MAY

17

AUG

17N

OV

17FE

B 18

MAY

18

AUG

18N

OV

18FE

B 19

MAY

19

AUG

19N

OV

19FE

B 20

MAY

20

AUG

20

Nickel

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015


18

COMMODITY FUTURES TERM STRUCTURESOFTS GROUP

LIVESTOCK GROUP

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

MAY

15

JUL

15

OCT

15

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

OCT

16

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

OCT

17

MAR

18

Sugar

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

120125130135140145150155160165

MAY

15

JUL

15

SEP

15

DEC

15

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

SEP

16

DEC

16

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

SEP

17

DEC

17

MAR

18

Coffee

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

60616263646566676869

MAY

15

JUL

15

OCT

15

DEC

15

MAR

16

MAY

16

JUL

16

OCT

16

DEC

16

MAR

17

MAY

17

JUL

17

OCT

17

DEC

17Cotton

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

505560657075808590

MAY

15

JUN

15

JUL

15

AUG

15

OCT

15

DEC

15

FEB

16

APR

16

MAY

16

JUN

16

JUL

16

Lean Hogs

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015

130135140145150155160165

APR

15

JUN

15

AUG

15

OCT

15

DEC

15

FEB

16

APR

16

JUN

16

AUG

16

Live Cattle

30-Apr-2015 29-May-2015


19

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY EVENT CALENDAR

Bloomberg frequently hosts and presents at commodity seminars and conferences.

Event Date Time Event Name Location Description

2 June 8.30am-12pm (local)

Commodities Past, Present and Future

Zurich, Bloomberg

Office

While the economy is moving forward and growth is gaining momentum in the US, other industrialized countries are still

struggling with the recovery and key emerging markets continue to slow down. The event will review the outlook for

the global economy in 2015, and its likely impact on commodities markets. Conference speakers will review the

dynamics the commodity spaces, the developments in individual commodity sectors, new ways to invest into

commodities in light of market regulation and the changing term structure of commodities.

3 June 8.30am-12pm (local)

Commodities Past, Present and Future

Paris, Bloomberg

Office

While the economy is moving forward and growth is gaining momentum in the US, other industrialized countries are still

struggling with the recovery and key emerging markets continue to slow down. The event will review the outlook for

the global economy in 2015, and its likely impact on commodities markets. Conference speakers will review the

dynamics the commodity spaces, the developments in individual commodity sectors, new ways to invest into

commodities in light of market regulation and the changing term structure of commodities.

15 June 3pm-4:30pm EDT

2015 Agriculture Outlook: Planting

Bloomberg ConferenceChicago

Please join Bloomberg and Futures International, LLC in a discussion on the Planting Outlook for 2015. This will be

centered around planting efforts and expectations. Futures International analyst Terry Reilly will provide his fundamental outlook for 2015. Bloomberg Agricultural Specialist, Sterling

Smith, will go over what lies ahead in 2015 including acreage, South American harvest progress, weather and panting

prospects. Sterling will showcase terminal functions that you can leverage in order to make your own 2015 Planting Outlook

prediction.

16 June 3:30pm - 4:30pm EDT

2015 Agriculture Outlook: Crops

Bloomberg WebinarDigital

Please join Bloomberg Intelligence Global Chemicals Analyst, Jason Miner and Bloomberg Agriculture Market Specialist,

Sterling Smith in a discussion on the Planting Outlook for 2015.

17 June 3pm - 4:30pm EDT

2015 Agriculture Outlook: Crops

Bloomberg ConferenceChicago

Please join Bloomberg in a discussion on the Crop Outlook for 2015. This will be centered around crop development and

expectations.

8 Sept 8am - 1pm GMT

Commodity Investment 2015 Review:

Bloomberg ConferenceLondon The second part of our commodities in review will look at all

current trends and analysis in commodities so far this year.


20

BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE: COMMODITY DASHBOARDS BI <GO>

Crude Oil Production: BI OILS <GO> Natural Gas Production: BI NGAS <GO>

Precious Metal Mining: BI PMET <GO> Agricultural Chemicals: BI AGCH <GO>

Copper: BI COPP <GO> Aluminum: BI ALUM <GO>

BI provides analysis on several key drivers of BCOM performance; industrial and precious metals mining, oil and natural gas production, and agricultural chemicals. The dashboards include key macro data libraries and interactive charting and commentary from analysts with an average of seventeen years of experience.


21

Return

Realized Vol (252 days)

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: Bloomberg Commodity Indices

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bloomberg Commodity Index Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Index Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bloomberg Commodity Index Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Index Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward


22

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: Commodities vs. Equities vs. Bond vs. USDReturn


Realized Correlation (252 days)

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bloomberg Commodity Index S&P 500 Index Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bloomberg Commodity Index S&P 500 Index Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

BCOM - S&P 500 Index BCOM - Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index BCOM - Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index


23

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: BCOM SubgroupsReturn


Realized Correlation (252 days)

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Energy Grains Industrial Metals Precious Metals Softs Livestock

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Energy Grains Industrial Metals Precious Metals Softs Livestock

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Energy - Grains Energy - Industrial Metals Energy - Precious Metals Energy - Softs Energy - Livestock


24

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: BCOM Single Commodity IndicesReturn - Energy

Realized Vol (252 days) - Energy

Return - Grains

-200%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Natural Gas WTI Crude Brent Crude ULS Diesel Unleaded Gasoline

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Natural Gas WTI Crude Brent Crude ULS Diesel Unleaded Gasoline

-200%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Corn Soybeans Wheat Soybean Oil Soybean Meal HRW Wheat


25

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: BCOM Single Commodity IndicesRealized Vol (252 days) - Grains

Return - Industrial Metals

Realized Vol (252 days) - Industrial Metals

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Corn Soybeans Wheat Soybean Oil Soybean Meal HRW Wheat

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



26

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: BCOM Single Commodity IndicesReturn - Precious Metals

Realized Vol (252 days) - Precious Metals

Return - Softs

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gold Silver

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gold Silver

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sugar Coffee Cotton


27

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: BCOM Single Commodity IndicesRealized Vol (252 days) - Softs

Return - Livestock

Realized Vol (252 days) - Livestock

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sugar Coffee Cotton

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



28

COMMODITY CHEATSHEET FOR THE BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL® SERVICE

Broad Commodities EnergyTop commodity news CTOP Top energy news ETOPCommodity markets menu <COMDTY> F9 Top oil news OTOP Global commodity prices GLCO Crude Oil Production Dashboard BI OILSCommodity playbook CPLY First Word oil NI BFWOIL Commitments of traders report COT News on oil inventories TNI OIL INV Calendar of commodity events ECO17 Oil Buyer's Guide newsletter NI OBGBRIEFCommodity arbitrage calculator CARC Pipes & Wires newsletter NI PAWSBRIEFCommodity fundamental data explorer FDM Oil market analysis BOILCommodity futures overview CMBQ Nat gas spot prices BGASSecurity finder SECF Forward European utility markets EUMCommodity data contributors & broker CDAT News on oil markets NI OILMARKET Contract table menu CTM News on OPEC NI OPEC Seasonality chart SEAG OPEC production and prices OPECCommodity curve analysis CCRV Oil markets menu OIL Commodity fair values CFVL Crude stored in tankers NOONCommodity price forecasts CPFC Refinery outages REFOCommitments of Traders Report COT Oil’s decline EXT5 Commodity maps BMAP Oil versus inflation expectations SWIFCommodity options monitor OMON Commodities charts COSY MetalsCommodity Investors menu CMNV Top metal news METT US exchange traded product fund flows ETF Precious metal dashboard BI PMETG

Base metals dashboard BI BMETCommodity Indices Metals prices and data MINE Index description BCOM Index DES Precious metals prices and rates MTL Index constituent weights BCOM Index MEMB Metals Bulletin MB Listed index futures BCOM Index CT COMEX inventories COMX Option volatility surface BCOM Index OVDV LME monitor LME Seasonality chart BCOMNG Index SEAG LME implied volatilities LMIV Commodity index futures movers FMV LME warehouse inventories LMEI Commodity index ranked returns CRR

AgricultureWeather Top agriculture news YTOP Global weather database WETR Agriculture calendar AGRI US snow monitor SNOW Agriculture spot prices AGGPEU weather & utility models EUMM Agriculture supply & demand AGSD

Crop calendar CCAL

BCOM QUICK FACTS

Weighting Bias 2/3 market liquidity and 1/3 world production No. of Commodities 20 Re-balancing Frequency Annual Roll Schedule Monthly (5 day roll) Caps/Limits Single commodity: max 15%

Single commodity and its derivatives: max 25%Related commodity groups: max 33%

First Value Date 30 December 1990

The data provided in this report can be easily accessed on the Bloomberg Professional® service along with numerous news and analytical tools to help you stay on top of the commodity markets.


29

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