blair hudson, innovation portfolio manager for data science, pepper money
TRANSCRIPT
Driving Innovationwith DataCDAO Sydney6-8 March 2017
Blair Hudson (@blairhudson)Innovation Portfolio Manager – Data SciencePepper Group Limited
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Pepper Group – diverse global financial services
AustraliaMortgage lendingAuto and equipment financePersonal loansThird party servicingProperty advisory
South KoreaMortgage lendingAuto and equipment financePersonal loansDeposits
United KingdomMortgage lendingThird party servicingProperty advisory
IrelandMortgage lendingThird party servicingProperty advisory
SpainPoint of sale financeThird party servicing
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OpportunityOpportunity InitiativeInitiative ConceptConcept PrototypePrototype PilotPilot LaunchProduction
Innovation is part of our DNA
In 2016 we defined our process to support company-wide innovation,and structured key strategic portfolios including Data Science
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How would you like to use machine learning today?
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Reality is more like
OpportunityOpportunity Launch
Like design, the art of data science can be begin uncertain,but unravels with focus on a single outcome
Production
Reality is more like Damien Newman’s squiggle
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So how do we turn this…
OpportunityOpportunity LaunchProduction
(Damien Newman’s squiggle)
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…into this?
OpportunityOpportunity InitiativeInitiative ConceptConcept PrototypePrototype PilotPilot LaunchProduction
(Awesome value-driven process for Data Science innovation)
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1. Opportunity
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Tools for discovery and understanding
Opportunity Canvas Value Sequence
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Value Sequence
Tools for discovery and understanding
Opportunity Canvas
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Opportunity Canvas
Work Activities
Risks
RiskMitigators
Returns
ReturnAccelerators
BusinessFunction
Core / Support
Adjacent Functions
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Opportunity Canvas
Work Activities
Risks
RiskMitigators
Returns
ReturnAccelerators
BusinessFunction
Core / Support
Adjacent Functions
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Value SequenceSequence Sequence
Track
Track
Track
Track
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Value SequenceSequence Sequence
Track
Track
Track
Track
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2. Initiatives
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Initiative SorterInitiative Scorecard
Tools for planning your roadmap
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Initiative SorterInitiative Scorecard
Tools for planning your roadmap
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DVF criteria
Feasibility
ViabilityDesirability
Is this a valid data science opportunity?Does supporting data exist already?
How long could it take?What are the expected benefits?
Is this a strategic priority?Is the use case easily understood?
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Opportunity
Initiative Scorecard
Sequence
Function
TrackAccelerator / Mitigator
Total Score
FeasibilityDesirability Viability
Revenue / Risk Measure
Work Activity
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Opportunity
Initiative Scorecard
Sequence
Function
TrackAccelerator / Mitigator
Total Score
FeasibilityDesirability Viability
Revenue / Risk Measure
Work Activity
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Initiative Sorter15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Horizon 1
Horizon 2
Horizon 3
Ready Now
Needs DataF < 4
Needs TechnologyV < 4
Needs OwnerD < 4
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Initiative Sorter15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Horizon 1
Horizon 2
Horizon 3
Ready Now
Needs DataF < 4
Needs TechnologyV < 4
Needs OwnerD < 4
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15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Horizon 1
Horizon 2
Horizon 3
Initiative Sorter
Ready Now
Needs DataF < 4
Needs TechnologyV < 4
Needs OwnerD < 4
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3. Concept
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Thinking ahead…
Prototype ProductionPilot
Validation(Offline)
AB Test(Online)
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Experiment Plan
Tools for conceptual (experiment) design
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Experiment Plan
Tools for conceptual (experiment) design
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Experiment PlanObservation
Sequence
Target
Hypothesis Test
Control
AcceptanceModel
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Experiment PlanObservation
Sequence
Target
Hypothesis Test
Control
AcceptanceModel
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4. Prototype
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Tools for rapid prototyping
(This isn’t so easily summarised into simple graphical tools…)
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Our ethos drives sustainability
Avoid technical debt at all costs
Be relentlesslyvalue driven
Walk first, then run!
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5. Pilot
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Pre-conditions for pilot
Before pilot (AB test), the prototype must be validated on unseen historical data,otherwise continue prototyping (or reformulate concept hypotheses)
Modelling (80%) Validation (20%)
Historical data
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AB testing
Determine
minimum sample
for A and B
Apply model on B group
and action
Observe results in A and B
until minimums reached
Analyse results
for significa
nce
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6. Production
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Pre-conditions for production
Before launch, the AB test must reach statistical significance, otherwise keep piloting (or reformulate concept hypotheses)
https://xkcd.com/1478/
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Three types of consumption
Model summaries
Batchscoring
Real-time scoring
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If you’ve made it this far…
Domain Expertise
Computer
Science
Mathematics and Statistics
Change and
Strategy
You’ve joined the dots betweenfour key fields!
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Thank you
@blairhudson
linkedin.com/in/blairhudson
Blair Hudson
Pepper Group Limited ABN 55 094 317 665. Australian Finance Services Licence 286655; Australian Credit Licence 286655 Pepper Asset Finance Pty Ltd CAN 165 183 317; Australian Credit Licence 458899 © Copyright 2016 Pepper Group Limited. All
rights reserved.
Copyright 2017 Pepper. Confidential.