bit by bit: issues of future technology and cultural development
TRANSCRIPT
Bit By Bit: Issues of Future Technology and Cultural
Development
Jeremy Pesner
My Background Computer Science undergraduate
− BS, Dickinson College, 2009 Tech Policy graduate
− MA, Georgetown University, 2013 Work for the government
− (but that's not important here) Research focuses around technological
innovation and human-computer interaction
Three Major Issues I Will Cover
How the customizability of technology is “leaking” into the physical world
Where the next long, long term but game-changing technological innovation will come from
Major issues of an increasingly platform-based development culture
...and then I'll answer your questions
The Real Evolution of Technology
“I'm sorry Dave, I can't let you do that.”
Technology of the Past
“How can I help you?”
Technology Today
What would you like to change?
Young People Want Control
Younger Generations Are “Programming” Life
Actively shaping the world to suits their whims Interacting with celebrities formerly beyond
their reach (via Twitter, AMAs, etc.) Entrepreneurs writing new rules are the new
rockstars Software is cool now (wish my 10-year-old
self knew this) How many (more) enshrined institutions will
decay as a result of this?
The Next Long, Long Term Technological Innovation
Internet was created by ongoing partnership between government & academia
Took several decades before it matured to the point where the public took notice
For much of the developed world, has ushered in nothing less than an entire new paradigm of thought
...but will we get another innovation like this? Let's talk about R&D
R - Changing Nature of Research Funding
ssti.org
R - Pasteur's Quadrant
(keep this in mind if you want to bring up the Diamandis NIH statement)
D – Why We Can't Solve Big Problems
“We wanted flying cars – instead we got 140 characters.” - Peter Thiel, Founders Fund
60-70s VC model funded IT & biotech in their infancy with big hopes for the future
The Internet was so successful because it wasn't designed to do one thing in particular
Modern VC model prioritizes clear solutions and 1-3 year ROI
http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/429690/why-we-cant-solve-big-problems
The one exception...
Technology as a Platform We live in a platform-dominated web:
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc. Abstracts technical detail away from users Average user doesn't know how to program Even those who do usually use frameworks
and APIs Not too long ago, these platforms were
themselves built from the ground up ...but what are the consequences of that?
Most Popular Technology Platforms by the NumbersOpen Source
http://royal.pingdom.com/2009/05/29/the-8-most-successful-open-source-products-everhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systemshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsershttps://managewp.com/14-surprising-statistics-about-wordpress-usagehttp://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide
The predominant platform type is clear
Closed Source• Linux – 1.61%• Firefox – 10.72%• Wordpress – 74.6 million sites
• Windows - 86.34%• Chrome - 50.25%• Facebook – 1.44 billion active users
If This Then That
Interoperability Internet & web succeeded because of open
standards (TCP/IP, HTML, etc.) What kinds of standards will we see for
Internet of Things & cloud? What “building blocks” will we have for our
future technology? Such blocks are the “nature” of technology
(says Brian Arthur) If we don't build the blocks, someone else
will
