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Biological Ramifications of Climate-Change Mediated Oceanic Multi-Stressors !
Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Phil Boyd (U. Tasmania), Sinikka Lennartz (GEOMAR), & David Glover (WHOI)
Supported by:
Southern Ocean Dynamics & Biogeochemistry
Workshop Caltech, Feb. 2015
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Climate Change Drivers!
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Plankton Response to Multiple Environmental Drivers!
Boyd & Hutchins, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Series, 2012
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Talk Outline!Earth System Model Projections: • multiple stressor trends • regional variability
Guide design & interpretation of field/lab manipulation studies
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Surface Warming!
Ensemble of CMIP5 Coupled Climate-Carbon Models Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
ΔSST
0.0
2.0
-1.0
4.0
1900 2000 2100
CESM1(BGC) Δ (2100 – 2000)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
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Physical Drivers!
Δ 2100 - 2000
CESM1(BGC)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
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Biogeochemical Drivers!
Δ 2100 - 2000
CESM1(BGC)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
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Present-Day Southern Ocean Iron Budget Terms!
Misumi et al. Biogeosciences 2014
Divergence/Convergence terms for: • Horizontal
advection • Vertical
advection • Mixing • External
forcing dust & sediments
Positive is net source
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Net Primary Productivity!
Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
ΔNPP
1900 2000 2100
0%
20%
8%
10%
Δ NPP
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Declining Seasonal Sea-ice along Peninsula!
Sharon Stammerjohn U Colorado Boulder
Stammerjohn et al. Geophysical Research Letters 2012
3.3 months shorter
2.6 months longer
(1979/80 – 2010/11)
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Decadal Change in Surface Chlorophyll
Montes et al. Science (2009)
Ecological Changes to Retreating Sea-Ice!
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Courtesy Zina Deretsky, NSF
-Sea ice melt stabilizes upper ocean and fosters phytoplankton growth -Long sea ice duration acts as a barrier to light penetration and prevents growth
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Effects on Growth & Community Structure!Small Phytoplankton
Growth Rate Diatom
Growth Rate
Marinov et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2013
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Ocean Acidification!
Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
Δsurface pH
0.0
-0.4
0.1
1900 2000 2100
-0.2
CESM1(BGC) Δ (2100 – 2000)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
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Ocean Acidification!
CESM1(BGC)
Moore et al., J. Climate 2013 Boyd et al., Nature Climate Change 2015
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Boyd, Lennartz, Glover & Doney Nature Climate Change 2015
Regional Climate Signals: “Climate Clusters”!
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Global Trends vs. Regional Variation!
ΔSST ΔSST
ΔSST ΔSST
ΔFe
ΔSi(OH)4 ΔNO3
ΔpH
Nutrients log10([X])
global trend
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Surface Stratification Factor (20%)
Nutrient Factor (26%)
T S MLD
PO4 NO3
Fe
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)!
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Temperature-Growth Curves!
Boyd et al. PLoS One 2013
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Interactive Effects of Multiple Environmental Drivers!
Rose et al. Biogeosciences 2009
Days
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Boyd, Lennartz, Glover & Doney Nature Climate Change 2015
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ΔpH <-0.35
ΔNPP <-100 mgC m-2 y-1 ΔSST >3.5 K O2 <50 mmol m-3
ΔO2 <-50 mmol m-3
Regional Variation in Multiple Stressors!
<-20 <50
Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
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Talk Outline!Earth System Model Projections: • multiple stressor trends • regional variability
Guide design & interpretation of field/lab manipulation studies
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