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  • Biofuel Fact or FarceHINNER KSTER (Ph.D.)

  • Fiber to cellulosic ethanol??Cellulosic Conversion ??

  • More worries about food versus fuel

    Boosting U.S. ethanol production would mean higher food prices, both domestically and across the globe Dick Bond, Tyson CEO

  • USA Ethanol outlook

  • (25% in 2007/08)

  • (Reach level in 2009/10)

  • New projections baseline increase

  • CBOT MARCH MAIZE PRICE

  • USA DDGS Production Outlook

    Chart1

    0.32

    0.9

    1.8

    3

    3.5

    9

    14

    24

    (MMT)

    U.S. DDGS Production from Ethanol

    ?

    Sheet1

    YearMTEthanolMT

    19800.320.1750.4819468384

    19850.90

    19901.80

    199530

    20003.51.64.4063710942

    20059.03.913.5

    2006144.913.494511476

    20102414.1

    Sheet1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    (MMT)

    U.S. DDGS Production from Ethanol

    ?

    Sheet2

    Pattison Bros.:RFA

    ?

    Sheet3

  • USA potential DDGS exportsSource: The ProExporter Network

    Chart2

    1.2

    1.5

    1.875

    2.343

    2.929

    3.661

    4.577

    5.721

    7.151

    8.939

    11.173

    Year

    MMT

    Sheet1

    20051.2

    20061.5

    20071.9

    20082.3

    20092.9

    20103.7

    20114.6

    20125.7

    20137.2

    20148.9

    201511.2

    Sheet1

    Year

    MMT

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Relationship between US Maize and DDGS pricesSource: CARD, Iowa State University

  • DDGS Usage All used by livestock (nothing wasted) Swine 8.7 million tons Poultry 6.9 million tons Dairy 16 million tons Beef 39 million tons Total 70.6 million tons

  • Biofuels provide us with a historic chance to fast-forward growth in many of the worlds poorest countries, to bring about an agricultural renaissance and to supply modern energy to a third of the worlds population

    Jacques Diouf, Director General: UN Food and Agricultural OrganisationBIOFUELS SA

  • BIOFUELS SALEGISLATION IS THE KEY TO BIOFUEL PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AFRICANO LIKELY DIRECTION IN THE SHORT TERMCOMPETITION WITH FOOD?ECONOMIC VIABILITY?HEALTH/ENVIRONMENTAL/ECOLOGICAL AFFECT?JOB CREATION, SMALL SCALE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, 2ND ECONOMY, POVERTY ALLEVIATION?CONTRIBUTING TO NATIONAL FUEL SECURITY?PRICE, VOLUMES

  • Maize-to-Ethanol: Total Supply Chain Cost Comparison (Source: Absa Agribusiness / Agrista)

  • SOUTH AFRICAN MAIZE CONSUMPTION

    MAIZE CONSUMPTION

    3.683.3

    4.23.03

    4.312.97

    4.193.27

    4.23.3

    YELLOW

    WHITE

    YEAR

    TONS (MILLION)

    Sheet1

    whiteyellow

    2005/64.193.277.46

    2004/54.312.977.28

    2003/44.23.037.23

    2002/33.683.36.98

    2002/33.683.3

    2003/44.23.03

    2004/54.312.97

    2005/64.193.27

    2006/74.23.3

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Impact of Maize Price on Planting BehaviourSource: Safex, Crop Estimates Committee

  • YELLOW MAIZE PRICES RANDFONTEINSource: Grain SA

    Data

    SAFEX GRAANPRYSE EN IN- EN UITVOERPARITEITE/ SAFEX GRAIN PRICES & IMPORT & EXPORT PARITY PRICES

    Nuwe Seisoen /New SeasonNuwe Seisoen /New Season

    VSA GEELMIELIES/ USA YELLOW MAIZEARG GEELMIELIES/ ARG YELLOW MAIZEVSA WITMIELIES/ USA WHITE MAIZEAfgeleide SorghumprysVSA/ USA SORGHUMVSA GEELMIELIES/ USA YELLOW MAIZEVSA WITMIELIES/ USA WHITE MAIZE

    SAFEXRANDFONTEINDURBANRANDFONTEINDURBANSAFEXRANDFONTEINDURBAN(Milldoor)RANDFONTEINDURBANRANDFONTEINDURBANSAFEX YMRANDFONTEINDURBANSAFEX WM

    DATUM/GeelmieliesInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerWitmieliesInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerJUL'08InvoerUitvoerInvoerUitvoerJUL'08

    DATERandYellow maizePariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/White maizePariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/Pariteit/

    ImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExport95% van85% vanImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExport

    ParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParitySAFEX WMSAFEX YMParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParityParity

    3-Jan-055.65849.001,122.68381.73987.68516.73826.001,213.89472.131,078.89607.13784.70721.651,104.75322.40969.75457.40

    4-Jan-055.85838.001,156.48406.761,021.48541.76820.001,250.93500.361,115.93635.36779.00712.301,129.57336.15994.57471.15

    5-Jan-056.00858.001,180.97424.681,045.97559.68845.001,277.84520.681,142.84655.68802.75729.301,146.35344.701,011.35479.70

    6-Jan-056.08837.001,208.54448.571,073.54583.57811.001,306.69545.851,171.69680.85770.45711.451,164.89358.461,029.89493.46

    7-Jan-056.03819.001,195.82438.091,066.82573.09780.001,293.17534.571,158.17669.57741.00696.151,157.21353.611,022.21488.61

    10-Jan-056.00775.001,191.11434.701,056.11569.70735.001,287.98530.701,152.98665.70698.25658.751,165.11362.701,030.11497.70

    11-Jan-055.97737.001,193.54438.351,058.54573.35691.001,289.93533.871,154.93668.87656.45626.451,160.44359.731,025.44494.73

    12-Jan-055.96751.001,177.15422.571,042.15557.57708.001,273.37517.931,138.37652.93672.60638.351,158.88358.741,023.88493.74

    13-Jan-056.08720.001,194.63434.821,059.63569.82663.001,292.79532.101,157.79667.10629.85612.001,177.56370.621,042.56505.62

    14-Jan-056.02725.001,183.48426.321,048.48561.32666.001,280.68522.641,145.68657.64632.70616.251,149.40346.621,014.40491.62

    17-Jan-056.02738.001,189.61423.451,048.61561.45683.001,283.80519.771,145.80657.77648.85627.301,146.13337.601,008.13475.60

    18-Jan-056.08710.001,206.03431.201,062.03572.20661.001,301.19528.481,160.19669.48627.95603.501,158.22340.301,017.22481.30

    19-Jan-056.01688.001,257.28426.871,110.28570.87616.001,351.31523.031,207.31667.03585.20584.801,150.61330.651,006.61474.65

    20-Jan-056.07700.001,274.54435.451,124.54582.45629.001,369.54532.571,222.54679.57597.55595.001,175.35345.491,028.35492.49

    21-Jan-056.03703.001,257.40414.231,104.40564.23635.001,351.76510.711,201.76660.71603.25597.551,172.21338.611,022.21488.61

    24-Jan-055.92680.001,245.05400.661,089.05553.66596.001,337.63495.381,184.63648.38566.20578.001,158.32324.941,005.32477.94

    25-Jan-055.96639.001,252.50400.381,093.50556.38551.001,345.72495.741,189.17651.74523.45543.151,179.88337.741,023.88493.74

    26-Jan-055.91651.001,242.46386.591,080.46545.59525.001,334.87481.151,175.87640.15498.75553.351,175.10329.791,016.10488.79

    27-Jan-055.93695.001,236.68374.081,071.68536.08560.001,329.42468.961,167.42630.96532.00590.751,181.21328.771,019.21490.77

    28-Jan-055.94675.001,241.24372.201,073.24537.20561.001,334.14467.241,169.14632.24532.95573.751,185.77326.761,020.77491.76

    31-Jan-056.02665.001,259.43380.861,088.43548.86572.001,353.62477.181,185.62645.18543.40565.251,201.22331.681,033.22499.68

    1-Feb-056.05676.001,262.24376.421,088.24547.42568.001,356.92473.221,185.92644.22539.60574.601,208.89331.651,037.89502.65

    2-Feb-056.03680.001,245.77361.961,073.77533.96569.001,343.12458.441,171.12630.44540.55578.001,200.49322.641,028.49494.64

    3-Feb-056.14697.001,261.69373.081,089.69545.08585.001,360.82471.321,188.82643.32555.75592.451,217.50333.421,045.50505.42

    4-Feb-056.20702.001,268.25377.061,096.25549.06609.001,368.35476.261,196.35648.26578.55596.701,220.31333.101,048.31505.10

    7-Feb-056.23715.001,275.90383.361,103.90555.36618.001,376.48483.041,204.48655.04587.10607.751,224.92336.011,052.92508.01

    8-Feb-056.27670.001,275.67381.461,103.67553.46573.001,376.90481.781,204.90653.78544.35569.501,237.60346.161,065.60518.16

    9-Feb-056.27661.001,278.78384.531,106.78556.53546.001,380.01484.851,208.01656.85518.70561.851,231.06339.891,059.06511.89

    10-Feb-056.20661.001,278.79387.471,106.79559.47543.001,378.89486.671,206.89658.67515.85561.851,220.31333.101,048.31505.10

    11-Feb-056.09663.001,264.52377.971,092.52549.97548.001,362.84475.411,190.84647.41520.60563.551,203.42322.431,031.42494.43

    14-Feb-056.03667.001,262.29377.86109.29549.86548.001,359.80474.501,187.80646.50520.60566.951,195.75317.581,023.75489.58

    15-Feb-055.99670.001,265.43383.051,093.43555.05544.001,362.13478.891,190.13650.89516.80569.501,194.31318.721,022.31490.72

    16-Feb-056.00659.001,264.58381.801,092.58553.80527.001,361.45477.801,189.45649.80500.65560.151,195.88319.701,023.86491.70

    17-Feb-055.97659.001,258.09376.641,086.09548.64528.001,354.47472.161,182.47644.16501.60560.151,185.00310.791,013.00482.79

    18-Feb-055.94635.001,253.36373.221,081.36545.22505.001,349.26468.261,177.26640.26479.75539.751,186.58313.821,014.58485.82

    21-Feb-055.88598.001,253.07375.441,081.07547.44484.001,348.00469.521,176.00641.52459.80508.301,177.31307.941,005.31479.94

    22-Feb-055.80602.001,255.67381.361,083.67553.36498.001,349.30474.161,177.30646.16473.10511.701,164.94300.10992.94472.10

    23-Feb-055.81590.001,255.52380.791,083.52552.79495.001,349.32473.751,177.32645.75470.25501.501,184.65318.511,012.65490.51

    24-Feb-055.82577.001,261.72386.511,089.72558.51485.001,355.69479.631,183.69651.63460.75490.451,180.16313.701,008.16485.70

    25-Feb-055.80554.001,276.44401.891,104.44573.89471.001,370.08494.691,198.08666.69447.45470.901,170.98305.90998.98477.90

    28-Feb-055.79579.001,281.77407.571,109.77579.57498.001,375.24500.211,203.24672.21473.10492.151,193.56328.071,021.56500.07

    1-Mar-055.87570.001,280.17402.641,108.17574.64489.001,374.94496.561,202.94668.56464.55484.501,224.70353.921,052.70525.92

    2-Mar-055.87589.001,281.89404.341,109.89576.34505.001,376.66498.261,204.66670.26479.75500.651,200.23330

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