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Biofuel Carbon Capture & Storage, the Brazilian experience
Plinio NastariDATAGRO
FAPESP-NERC WORKSHOP ON SUSTAINABLE GAS FUTURE
February, 25th 2015FAPESP - Rua Pio XI, 1500 – Alto da LapaSão Paulo Brazil
Energy Consumption – Transport Sector2013 in Brazil
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Source million tep %
Diesel 38,433 46.2%
Biodiesel 2,005 2.4%
Gasoline (pure) 24,393 29.3%
Ethanol 11,889 14.3%
Anhydrous 5,172 6.2%
Hydrous 6,717 8.1%
Kerosene 3,608 4.3%
Fuel Oil 957 1.2%
Electricity 162 0.2%
CNG 1,647 2.0%
Others 59 0.1%
Total 83,153 100.0%
Energy Consumption - Transport Sector
Source: BEN/MME
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Source: DATAGRO
ETHANOL SHARE IN OTTO CYCLE FUEL DEMAND (in gasoline equivalent)
44.3%
41.8%
38.9%
37.0%
39.2%
38.1%
37.7% 37.3%
40.2%39.7%
39.4%
35.2%
40.7%
44.7%45.4%
44.6%
37.1%
31.8%
33.7%
36.2%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
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95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
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Photosynthesis
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Generates plants used as sources of biomass:
Cane African palm Eucaliptus
Soybeans Cassava Pinus
Castor Palm Other species
Conversion
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Methanol
Charcoal
Hydrogen
Biogas/biomethane
Ethanol – Avoided Emissions
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SourceIndustry
Average
Best
practices
Anhydrous ethanol 2.564 2.716
Hydrous ethanol 1.722 1.867
Base case
Gasoline (pure) 2.820
Source: Macedo et al. (2004).
Avoided emissions (kg CO2 eq/liter)
Biodiesel – Avoided Emissions
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SourceIndustry
Average
Biodiesel (B100)
Palm 2.760
Soy 2.530
Castor 1.760
Fossil Diesel 2.930
Source: EPE (2005).
Avoided emissions (kg CO2 eq/liter)
-
15,0
30,0
45,0
60,0
75,0
90,0
Mill
ion
ton
s o
f T
RS
eq
uiv
ale
nt
Sugar Anhydrous Hydrous
Brazilian Supply of Sugar+Ethanol (in TRS equivalent): with intense growth 2003-2010 period
Source: DATAGRONote: TRS is Total Reducing Sugars, a common denominator for sugar and ethanol.
31.3%
25.1%
43.6%
14/15eCS+N/NE
Gasoline30.77%
Flex Fuel67.00%
Ethanol2.23%
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SIZE OF THE DOMESTIC FLEET (OTTO CYCLE)
Flex-Fuel Vehicle Fleet Vehicle Fleet by Type of Fuel (2014)
Flex cars were responsible for 67.0% of total light vehicle fleet. This proportionis rising every year:
2013: 63.12%
2012: 58.02%
2011: 52.07%
Source: DATAGRO Source: DATAGRO
0.05 0.381.19
2.61
4.59
6.88
9.47
12.23
14.92
17.96
20.85
23.12
-
5
10
15
20
25
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
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20
13
20
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MIllion units
32,9
38,0
35,9
38,2 37,6
35,5
30,0
32,0
34,0
36,0
38,0
40,0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15e
mill
ion
to
ns
Brazil: production of sugar has fallen since 2012
Source: Elaborated by DATAGRO, from data obtained with Sindicates of Producers.
25,7
27,4
22,6 23,2
27,5
28,2
20,0
22,0
24,0
26,0
28,0
30,0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15e
bill
ion
lit
ers
Brazil: a new record production of ethanol achieved in 2014/15
Source: Elaborated by DATAGRO, from data obtained with Sindicates of Producers.
Ethanol Production in Brazil(000 m3)
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5,621.3 6,465.1 6,994.4
8,914.9 8,316.1 8,112.4 8,387.5 8,125.5 9,336.0
7,060.0 8,323.0 8,942.1
9,949.0
12,172.0 12,260.0
4,971.6
5,071.2 5,596.6
5,896.7 7,103.8 7,820.6
9,460.1
14,272.0
18,188.0
18,645.0
19,048.0
13,758.1 13,304.0
15,280.0 15,931.0
-
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15e
Anhydrous ethanol Hydrous ethanol
Source: DATAGRO.
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
Sugar Anhydrous Hydrous
A large shift in production mix since 2012/13
Fonte: DATAGRO
27.9% 31.3%
21.8% 25.1%
12/13 14/15
50.3% 43.6%
Consumption as Fuel(Gasoline, Anhydrous & Hydrous Ethanol, in billion liters/mo)
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Bil
lio
n li
ters
/mo
nth
Gasoline A (pure) Anhydrous Hydrous Ethanol Total
Source: DATAGRO.
Biodiesel Production in Brazil(million liters)
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1,608
2,386
2,673 2,717 2,917
3,414
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ANP/MME.
Avoided Emissions from Biofuels(used as fuel only) in Brazil- 2014
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SourceIndustry
Average
Best
practices
Industry
AverageBest practices
Anhydrous ethanol 2.564 2.716 28,437.48 30,123.32
Hydrous ethanol 1.722 1.867 22,375.87 24,260.01
Biodiesel (soy) 2.530 8,637.65
59,451.00
Source: DATAGRO.
Avoided Emissions
(kg CO2 eq/liter) (2014 total in 000 tons CO2 eq)
Biofuels total
Total Volume of Ethanol Used as Fuel (1975-2014) in Gasoline Equivalent (in million liters)
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Anhydrous Hydrous Total Ethanol in Gasoline equivalent383.7
283.8
167.2
Total (bi liters)
Source: Datagro
Avoided Emissions from Biofuelsused as fuel (only) since 1975
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Source (kg CO2 eq/liter)Since 1975, in
000 tons CO2 eq.
Anhydrous ethanol 2.564 428,670.03
Hydrous ethanol 1.722 372,809.56
Biodiesel (soy) 2.530 53,762.50
855,242.09
Source: DATAGRO.
Avoided Emissions - Industry Average
Biofuels total
Ethanol substituted between 1975-2014 2.41 billion barrels of gasoline
Proved reserves of oil & condensates(including Pre-Salt) in 2014:
13.13 billion barrels (SEC),or 16.61 billion barrels (SPE/WPC).
Between 1975 & 2014, volume de gasoline substituted by ethanol:
2.41 billion barrels
At current pace, every year another 127 million barrelsare substituted without the need of new investmentsbecause it is renewable!
Hard currency savings• Between 1975 & 2014, substituted gasoline valued at its world
price enabled savings of
US$ 185.4 billion, without considering the cost of foregone debt, or
US$ 381.3 billion, considering the cost of foregone debt
(estimated at Prime Rate + 200 base pts).
Brazil’s foreign reserves(January/2015): US$ 372.93 billion.
Source: DATAGRO
Additional Potential
• Brazil has great potential for large scale biogas & biomethane use using organic residues from agrindustrial activity and urban waste.
• Large potential for substitution of fossil diesel (biomethane) and power (biogas) in distributed generation.
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TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS22
Biomethane, Renewable Substitute to Diesel
Substituição de Diesel a partir do Resíduo de Cana
Produção descentralizada
• 43% da área total do território brasileiro;
• 81% da população brasileira; e
• As principais capitais brasileiras estão a menos de 200km de uma usina sucroenergética.
Eficiência logística
Redução das importações
• Possibilidade de aumentar em U$ 6,1 bilhões o saldo positivo da Balança Comercial, ao substituir o diesel importado por biometano renovável.
Desenvolvimento das regiões rurais
• Possibilidade de gerar aproximadamente 25 empregos diretos por usina em áreas rurais.
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Independence in diesel imports
• A produção de biometano é capaz de zerar toda a importação de dieselbrasileira e reduzir a dependência energética de um produto fóssil
• A produção de adubo orgânico equivale a 9 vezes o consumo brasileiro defertilizante químico e a 4,5 vezes o total de volume importado
O biometano pode garantir a independência da importação de diesel do Brasil.
Usinas e Consumo de diesel no Brasil | mil L Potencial GEO Energética
Capacidade de geração de:
Diesel equiv.
35 bi de LOrganofértil
94 mm ton100%
Torta
100% Bagaço
100% Palha
100% Vinhaça
22,2
34,439,1 41,7157,8%
101,8%89,6% 83,9%
0,0 %
20, 0%
40, 0%
60, 0%
80, 0%
100 ,0%
120 ,0%
140 ,0%
160 ,0%
180 ,0%
200 ,0%
0,0
5,0
10, 0
15, 0
20, 0
25, 0
30, 0
35, 0
40, 0
45, 0
50 Km 100 km 150 km 200 km
Consumo de diesel (bi de L) e Potencial de Substituição (%)
Raio das usinas
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Organic Residues
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Complementariedade com o modelo de cana
• As terras destinadas às plantações de cana e à pecuária não ficam localizadas na mesma região garantindo assim uma melhor distribuição pelo território nacional.
Alta produtividade na biodigestão
• Comparado à biodigestão de cana, os resíduos animais apresentaram um produtividade 35% maior.
Solução para o problema de resíduos
• Diferentemente do mercado sucroenergético, os resíduos animais são considerados um problema. A biodigestão é uma solução operacional e economicamente interessante para o mercado.
Substituição de Diesel a partir de Resíduos Animais
PLANTING DATAHARVESTING SOLUTIONS
www.datagro.com+55 11 4133 3944
FUTURE EVENTS CALENDAR
13 May 2015 (New York Sugar Dinner)
9th ISO DATAGRO New York Sugar & Ethanol Conference
Waldorf=Astoria Hotel, New York
10 July 2015
4th Sugar & Ethanol Summit – Brazil Day
IoD – Institute of Directors, London
25 August 2015
4th DATAGRO Ceise Br Fenasucro Conference
Sertaozinho, Brazil
21-22 September 2015 (Sao Paulo Sugar Dinner)
15th DATAGRO International Conference on Sugar & Ethanol
Grand Hyatt São Paulo, Brazil
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