bioenergie und landnutzungskonflikte...bioenergie-politik • in his state of the union speech,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Bioenergie und Landnutzungskonflikte
Jürgen ScheffranForschungsgruppe Klimawandel und SicherheitInstitut für Geographie, CliSAP/CEN, Universität Hamburg
Biologische Grundlagen der Friedensforschung3. Juni 2015
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IPCC (2011) SRREN_SPM
Historische Entwicklung erneuerbarer Energiequellen
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Anteile von Energiequellen an der globalen Primärenergienutzung in 2008
IPCC (2011) SRREN_SPMWorld total primary energy supply: 492 ExaJouleModern biomass contributes 38% of total biomass share
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Globale Anteile der Biomassequellen für Energieversorgung
Source: IPCC-SRREN (2011)
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IPCC-SRREN (2011): conclusions on bioenergy
• Bioenergy technologies can generate electricity, heat and fuels from a range of ‘feedstocks’.
• Some bioenergy systems, including ones that involve converting land into agricultural biomass and energy crops, can generate more greenhouse gas emissions than they save.
• But others, such as advanced conversion systems, which for example convert woody wastes into liquid fuels, can deliver 80 percent to 90 percent emission reductions compared to fossil fuels.
• Bioenergy, mainly for traditional cooking and heating in developing countries, currently represents over 10 percent of global energy supply or ca. 50 Exajoules per year.
• While the share of bioenergy in the overall renewables mix is likely to decline over the coming decades, it could supply 100 to 300 Exajoules of energy by 2050...
IPCC-SRREN press release
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Energetische Nutzung von biomassE
Biomass
Burn produce electricity
Thermochemicalconversion to
syngas products
Biochemicalconversion toethanol and other fuels
Mature Semi-mature(Capital intensive
inefficient)
In development
Source: Steve Long
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Motivation für biotreibstoffe Energy security: Growing oil prices and dependence on
energy imports from the Middle East increase demand for renewable energy
Home‐grown domestic energy sources offer development perspectives to structurally weak rural areas and lead to structural changes in land‐use and agriculture
Economic benefits: significant number of jobs, increase of GDP and farmer's income
Sustainable development in Third World: growing energy demand in developing countries; high productivity of energy crops in tropical and subtropical regions, employment and income in rural areas
Low‐carbon energy alternatives to fossil fuels: advanced bioenergy offers potential lifecycle carbon emission reductions.
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Bioenergie-politik• In his State of the Union speech, George
W. Bush set a target to boost ethanol and other alternative fuel production to 35 billion gallons a year by 2017 – a fivefold increase.
• The March 9, 2007 deal between the United States and Brazil on biofuels satisfies the growing US demand in ethanol.
• European Union leaders at a climate change summit in Brussels March 9, 2007 have agreed to slash carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by the year 2020.
• These cuts would rise to 30% if the United States and other industrialized countries were to commit themselves to 'comparable' emissions cuts after 2012, and if large developing countries including China contribute 'adequately'.
• The European Commission wants countries to pledge, among other things, to raise use of renewable fuels to 20%.
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Globale produktion von biotreibstoff
Vital Signs 2010
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Geplantes wachstum von ethanol in USA
Grain Ethanol and Vegetable Oil Biodiesel0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bill
ion
Gal
lons
/Yea
r
Grain Ethanol and Conventional Biodiesel
Cellulosic Ethanol and "Green" Diesel
2015 2025 203020202005 2010
3.7
44.8
9.412.8
Source: Stanley R. Bull, NREL
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Ethanol von Mais
In 2006, 17 percent of the corn crop was processed into ethanol which accounted for 2 percent of fuel supply.
Technology Review, Jan. 2008
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Energie und preis landwirtschaftlicher Güter 2000-09
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
IMF Commodity IndexCrude oilCornSoybeansSoybean oilPalm oil
Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial StatisticsCommodity prices and indices are normalized to equal 1.0, on average, for 2000
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Gibt es eine verbindung zwischen Nahrungspreis und unruhen?
Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27083/ Death tolls in parentheses
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crisis-in-egypt/arab-nations-are-the-largest-importers-of-grains/article1889683/?from=1889680
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Palmöl für biodiesel?
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Welt-Anbaufläche von ölpalmen
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Bioenergie lebenszyklus
CABER 2007
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Kritische Aspekte von biotreibstoffen
Energy balance
Carbon balance
Land use
Competition with food
Water needs
Fertilizer and chemical inputs
Biodiversity, monoculture, invasive species
Safety and security
Cost of harvest and distribution
Jobs
Subsidies
Legal issues
Comprehensive Life-cycle Assessment for sustainable biofuels
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Partikelkonzentrationen der holzverbrennung in entwicklungsländern
Source: IPCC 2007:WG3, based on Karekezi and Kithyoma, 2003.
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Das bewertungs-Dreieck
Kosten Risiko
Wert
Bioenergie
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Energysource
DistributionParticipation
Risk Utility
ValuesGoals
- +
Conservation Equity CooperationNegotiation
EfficiencyRisk reduction
Sufficiency
V=E • d • p • (v-r) = V*
Strategien für nachhaltige energienutzung
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Greenhous Gas
EmissionsG
Population
P
LaborProductivity
W/P
EnergyIntensity
E/W
EmissionIntensity
G/Ex xx
Faktoren von Treibhausgas-Emissionen:Die Kaya-Identität
=
G = (G/E) * (E/W) * (W/P) * P = g * e * w * P
G is global greenhouse gas emissions from human sources (e.g. CO2)P is global populationW is world wealth (GDP)E is global primary energy consumption
w = (W/P) is global per-capita wealth (labor productivity)e=(E/W) is the energy intensity of world wealth (GDP)g=(G/E) is the carbon intensity of energy.
Yoichi Kaya, 1993, Environment, Energy, and Economy: strategies for sustainability
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Pflanzen-effizienz
Source: Sorensen
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Biomass to fill the tank on the truck with bioethanol….
Source: Paul Carver, 2007
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…..45 minutes fuel for a coal fired power station
Source: Paul Carver, 2007
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Mehrjährige gräser
Courtesy: D.K. Lee 2008
Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) Miscanthus x giganteus
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Maiserträge in den usa
Troyer, 1990Source: Troyer, 1990
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Projezierte Maiserträge in USa
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Maiserträge mit regenbewässerung
Source: Rockström 2009
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Energierelation und CO2-Emissionen von ethanol
Technology Review, Jan. 2008
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Landbedarf von biotreibstoffen für 50% der Pkw-Nutzer in usa
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Verteilung technischer energie-potentiale von fester biomasse
Adapted from: Kaltschmitt et al., 2003, p. 48
Source: Kaltschmitt 2003, Energiegewinnung aus Biomasse.
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Land-nutzungs Effizienz alternativer biotreibstoffe
010
2030
405060
7080
90100
RM
E(N
ethe
rland
s)
EtO
H fr
omm
aize
(US
A)
EtO
H fr
omw
heat
(Net
herla
nds)
EtO
H fr
omsu
gar b
eets
(Net
herla
nds)
EtO
H fr
omsu
garc
ane
(Bra
zil)
EtO
H fr
omw
ood
(pre
sent
tech
nolo
gy)
EtO
H fr
omw
ood
(adv
ance
dte
chno
logy
)
MeO
H fr
omw
ood
(by
gasi
ficat
ion)
H2
from
woo
d(b
yga
sific
atio
n)
1000
v-k
m/h
a/yr
Light-duty internal combustion engine vehicle, (current technology)
IPCC, 1996.
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Emissionsvermeidung und biomasse-ertrag
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Biomass yield, metric t/ha/yr
Avo
ided
GH
G e
mis
sion
s, k
gCeq
/ha/
yr
Corn ethanol, 2005
Woody & herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2005/2010
Herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2025
Herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2050
Brazil sugarcane, best practice 2002 (68.7 t/ha/yr of raw cane stalks)
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Biomasse-produktivität in EU-mena
Bazilevich 1994
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Potential für Ackerland
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Potential fürBewässerungslandwirtschaft
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Potential für Ertragssteigerung
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Konversionspfade der bioenergie
Commercial routes (solid lines), developing bioenergy routes (dotted lines)(1) Parts of each feedstock could also be used in other routes. (2) Each route also gives coproducts. (3) Biomass upgrading includes any one of the densification processes (pelletization, pyrolysis, torrefaction, etc.). (4) Anaerobic digestion processes release methane and CO2 and removal of CO2 provides essentially methane (5) Could be other thermal processing routes such as hydrothermal, liquefaction, etc. DME=dimethyl ether.
(Source: SRREN 2011, modified from IEA Bioenergy 2009)
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Biomasse-netzwerk
Refinery PlanningSite Selection based on:• Resources (e.g., water) • Farms• Transp. networks• Storage (optional)
Biorefinery
Objective: Integrate feedstocks, bioprocessing plants and consumer demands into a regional economic model• Logistics optimization• Lifecycle assessment• Emission reductions
Transp. networks (e.g., rail, highway)
Customers (e.g., gasstation)
Harvest
Feedstockfarm
Storage
Transport…
Feedstock Shipping• Transp. mode• Fleet design (e.g., vehicle capacity)
• Dispatch route & schedule• Handling at farm/storage
Fuel Distribution• Transp. mode & fleet• Dispatch route & schedule• Price and demand
uncertainty
Cost Analysis• Transp. • Facility• Inventory• Environmental externalities
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Direkte effekte von biotreibstoffen
• Habitat destruction (particularly in Amazonia for soy and South‐East Asia for palm oil)
• Local environmental impacts upon air, water and soil quality and exacerbation of local water supply concerns
• Health impacts and social issues including poor working conditions for laborers and reported loss of land rights for indigenous peoples where new plantations for feedstock are established.
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inDirekte effekte von biotreibstoffen
Rising food commodity prices and the effect upon food security for the poor
Displacement of agricultural production to uncultivated areas with impacts on biodiversity, GHG savings and local land rights as a result of biofuel production.
Many forms of land‐use change result in significant releases of carbon to the atmosphere (payback time), negating any benefits (compared to petrol).
• Examples: Expansion of sugar cane production in Brazil, leading to displacement of cattle ranching and accelerated deforestation in Amazonia.
Expansion of soy production in South and Latin America as a consequence of US farmers increasing production of maize (and reducing production of soy)
Increased demand and prices for oil seed rape for biodiesel in the EU leads to expansion of palm oil production in South‐East Asia.
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Emissionseinsparung und payback für biomasse
Source: Gallagher Review 2008, based on E4Tech 2008
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Standards für nachhaltige biomasse
Source: Eco Institute 2006
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Multi-stakeholder dialoge
Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)Roundtable for Responsible Soy (RTRS)SA 8000: developed by Social Accountability International (SAI)
Global Social Compliance Program (GSCP): initiative of CIES, InternationalCommittee of Food Retail Chains, Food Business Forum.
Fairtrade Rainforest AllianceGlobalGap International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM)
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Roundtable on sustainable biofuels
• UNEP• Brazilian environmental and social
NGO’s• Bunge Corporation• BP• Dutch Ministry of Housing and the
Environment• The Energy Resources Institute (TERI)
of India• Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
(EPFL)• Federation of Swiss Oil Companies• Forest Stewardship Council• Keio University, Japan• Mali Folkecenter• Pinho, Petrobras• Volkswagen Environment
• National Wildlife Federation• Swiss Energy Ministry• Shell Oil• Toyota Motor Europe• UNCTAD• UN Foundation• University of California at Berkeley• World Economic Forum• WWF International • Working Groups’ Chairs• Michigan State University• IUCN, • National African Farmers’ Union• German NGO Forum• Virgin Group.
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Kriterien für nachhaltige nutzung von bioenergie
Environmental criteria
Climate change Air quality Water supply and quality Land resources Biodiversity and wildlifeprotection
Economic criteria
Microeconomic efficiency Macro‐economic benefits Technology transfer Regional economy Employment generation
Political criteria
Development for MENA No resource exploitation True cooperation Low conflict potential Political stability Democratization
Social criteria
Risk avoidance Anti‐corruption Stakeholder participation Improved service availability Capacity development Fair distribution of project return
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Feedstocks
Harvesting
ProcessingDistribution
UtilizationBioenergyLifecycle
New varietiesGenomics
Pest controlLand use
TechnologyMachinery
LaborLogistics
Transportation
DeconstructionMicrobes
FermentationCoproducts
Industry
LogisticsTransportation
Industry StructureResource recovery
Engine technologyConsumer demand
Recycling
TechnicalFeasibility
EconomicViability
EnvironmentalSustainability
Social-politicalAcceptability