billerud interim report q3 2011 presentation

26
1 INTERIM REPORT | JANUARY-SEPTEMBER 2011 THE NATURAL PART IN SMARTER PACKAGING Per Lindberg, CEO and President, and Susanne Lithander, CFO | 28 October, 2011

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Billerud Interim Report Q 3 2011

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Page 1: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

1

INTERIM REPORT | JANUARY-SEPTEMBER 2011

THE NATURAL PART IN

SMARTER PACKAGING

Per Lindberg, CEO and President, and Susanne Lithander, CFO | 28 October, 2011

Page 2: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

2

AGENDA

• Highlights

• Development by Business Area

• Financials

• Outlook

Page 3: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

3

HIGHLIGHTS IN Q3 2011

• Strong earnings

‒ Operating profit of MSEK 296, margin 13%

• Very strong cash flow

‒ Cash flow from operating activities of MSK 531

• Significant increase in earnings for packaging paper

• Net cash position

• Growing uncertainty about packaging paper demand

‒ Weakened order situation

‒ Stable local prices for packaging paper

Page 4: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

4

THE NATURAL PART IN SMARTER PACKAGING

• Pentawards Best of the Show

‒ Billerud’s design agency NINE received the world’s finest

design award

• Design Challenge 2011

‒ Billerud FibreForm® was rewarded at the largest Nordic

packaging fair

Page 5: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

5

Business areas

STRONG RESULTS FROM BUSINESS AREAS

292

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11

EB

IT, M

SE

K

Currency hedging, other, etc

Business areas

275296

+35%

+8%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11

EB

IT,

MS

EK

Packaging & Speciality PaperPackaging BoardsMarket Pulp

+40%

+27%

+50%

+35%

216

Billerud group

Page 6: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

6

PACKAGING & SPECIALITY PAPERKraft & Sack Paper

PACKAGING BOARDS

S/C Fluting, Liner, Liquid Board

MARKET PULPNordic Bleached

Softwood Kraft Pulp

BUSINESS AREAS & SEGMENTS

Note: Graph shows sales breakdown per business area for July-September 2011.

Page 7: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

7

PACKAGING & SPECIALITY PAPERMarket situation in Q3 2011

• Order situation for sack and kraft paper continued to

weaken gradually

‒ Seasonality and reduction of stock levels were main reasons

• Market-related production shutdowns implemented to

restore market balance

‒ Mainly related to sack paper

• Stable prices in local currency vs. Q2 2011

• Increased price pressure during the quarter

Page 8: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

8

8

PACKAGING & SPECIALITY PAPERFinancials – Q3 2011 vs. Q2 2011

• Operating profit up MSEK 41

• Improved currency situation and

lower costs

• Lower sales volume had a negative

impact on operating profit

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Opera

ting p

rofit,

MS

EK

20112010

Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2010 FY 2010

Net sales, MSEK 1,056 1,079 1,085 4,166

Operating profit, MSEK 143 102 106 417

Operating margin, % 14 9 10 10

Page 9: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

9

PACKAGING BOARDSMarket situation in Q3 2011

• Order situation weakened to some extent

‒ Growing uncertainty about demand compared with Q2 2011

• Stable prices in local currency vs. Q2 2011

• Increased price pressure towards the end of Q3 2011

‒ Related to lower prices for recycled fibre-based grades

Page 10: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

10

PACKAGING BOARDSFinancials – Q3 2011 vs. Q2 2011

• Operating profit up MSEK 25

• Improved currency situation and

lower fixed costs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Opera

ting p

rofit,

MS

EK

20112010

Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2010 FY 2010

Net sales, MSEK 696 704 649 2,428

Operating profit, MSEK 119 94 107 271

Operating margin, % 17 13 16 11

Page 11: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

11

MARKET PULPMarket situation in Q3 2011

• Weakened pulp market vs. Q2 2011

• Producers’ pulp stocks increased

• Demand relatively good vs. Q2 2011

• Price in Europe fell to ~950 USD/tonne at end of Q3 2011

from ~1,025 USD/tonne at end of Q2 2011

Page 12: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

12

MARKET PULPFinancials – Q3 2011 vs. Q2 2011

• Operating profit up MSEK 10

• Higher sales volume and an

improved currency situation compensated for less favourable

prices in local currency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Opera

ting p

rofit,

MS

EK

20112010

Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2010 FY 2010

Net sales, MSEK 465 435 452 1,731

Operating profit, MSEK 30 20 92 276

Operating margin, % 6 5 20 16

Page 13: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

13

Q3 2011 IN SUM

• Strong earnings

‒ Operating profit of MSEK 296, margin 13%

‒ MSEK +76 in higher operating profit from business areas

• Very strong cash flow

• Growing uncertainty about packaging paper demand

• Billerud received two of the most recognised packaging

awards

Page 14: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

14

FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Page 15: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

15

QUARTERLY KEY FIGURES

332335335Sales volume (ktonnes)

Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2010

Net sales, MSEK 2,327 2,383 2,251

Operating profit, MSEK 296 275 276

Operating margin 13% 12% 12%

Profit/share, SEK 2.03 1.88 1.84

Net debt/equity ratio -0.03 0.06 0.12

Page 16: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

16

OPERATING PROFIT BRIDGE Q3 2011 vs. Q2 2011

296

275

-22

-35

+4

+26

+57

-9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Operating

profit

Q2 2011

Sales &

production

volumes*

Selling prices

(in respective

sales

currency)

Effects of

exchange rate

fluctuations,

incl. hedging

Change in

variable costs

Change in

fixed costs

Change in

depreciation

Operating

profit

Q3 2011

MS

EK

* Includes product mix.

Page 17: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

17

JANUARY-SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

+0.150.12-0.03Net debt/equity ratio

Jan-Sep 2011 Jan-Sep 2010 vs. 2010

Net sales, MSEK 7,257 6,549 +11%

Operating profit, MSEK 903 711 +27%

Operating margin 12% 11% +1p.p.

Profit/share, SEK 6.19 4.66 +33%

Sales volume (ktonnes) 1,039 984 +6%

Page 18: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

18

WELL ABOVE TARGET FOR OPERATING MARGIN

Financial target

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10Op

era

tin

g m

arg

in,

rolli

ng

12

mo

nth

s (

%)

Page 19: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

19

WORKING CAPITAL KEY RATIOS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0901

3109

0430

0907

3109

1031

1001

3110

0430

1007

3110

1031

1101

3111

0430

1107

30

DS

O d

ays

OverdueDays sales outstanding WC as % of quarterly sales

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0901

3109

0531

0909

3010

0131

1005

3110

0930

1101

3111

0531

1109

30%

of to

tal re

ce

iva

ble

s

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0903

0906

0909

0912

1003

1006

1009

1012

1103

1106

1109

Work

ing c

apital (e

xcl. IA

S)/

quart

ely

net tu

rnover

Page 20: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

20

STRONG CASH FLOW GENERATION FROM OPERATION

1) Minus equals increase in net debt

MSEKQ3 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2010

Operating surplus, etc 464 421 417

Change in working capital, etc. 83 57 67

Net financial items, taxes, etc. -16 -10 -20

Cash flow from operating activities 531 468 464

Current net investments -121 -129 -113

Operating cash flow 410 339 351

Dividend - -361 -

Other items, not affecting cash flow -2 -1 1

Change in net debt 1) 408 -23 352

Page 21: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

21

80

100

120

140

160

2004 Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2007

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2010

Q4

2010

Q3

2011

80

120

160

200

240

280

2004 Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2007

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2010

Q4

2010

Q3

2011

Electricity index (Sweden*) Wood price index

Source: Nordpool. *Price area Sweden Source: Billerud

MARKET PRICES AFFECTING RESULT

Page 22: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

22

MARKET PRICES AFFECTING RESULT

550600650700750800850900950

1,0001,050

2004 Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2007

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2010

Q4

2010

Q3

2011

94

97

100

103

106

109

112

115

118

2004 Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2007

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2010

Q4

2010

Q3

2011

Market pulp (USD/t) TCW index*

Note: Average price for the quarter Source: Riksbanken *Total Competitiveness Weights Index

Page 23: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

23

CURRENCY SITUATION

Average hedged currency rates (share of net flow)

Oct-Dec 2011

Jan-Mar 2012

Apr-Jun 2012

Jul-Sep 2012

Total 12 months

9.27 9.38 9.21 9.24 9.30

(84%) (64%) (27%) (14%) (47%)

6.59 6.57 6.57 6.68 6.59

(80%) (60%) (29%) (16%) (47%)

10.61 10.60 10.49 10.63 10.59

(87%) (55%) (34%) (13%) (48%)

Note: Data in table and graph are as of 30 September 2011. *As of 30 September 2011.

• Profit effect of net flow hedging MSEK -5 (119) for Q3 2011 and MSEK 146 (265) for Jan-Sep 2011

• Market value of outstanding contracts not relating to account

receivables was MSEK -24*

Hedge level 12 months forward:

48%

47%

47%

GBP

USD

EUR

Page 24: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

24

OUTLOOK

Page 25: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

25

OUTLOOK FOR FY 2011

• Market development at the start of the fourth quarter was

marked by some uncertainty about demand. Customers

have continued to reduce their packaging paper stock levels,

which is having a negative impact on orders. Underlying

demand, however, is estimated to be relatively stable in most

segments

• The start of the fourth quarter has been characterised by

continued price pressure

• Billerud continues its efforts to increase the proportion of

sales of packaging paper solutions, i.e. material combined

with services in order to create conditions for a relatively more stable development

Page 26: Billerud Interim Report Q3 2011 presentation

26

Q&A