big-picture economic impacts of ethanol · ethanol economics • $0.10/gal. increase in ethanol...
TRANSCRIPT
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Big-Picture Economic Impacts of Ethanol
6/01/07
By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles
Professor of International Agriculture
Iowa State UniversityAmes, Iowa, U.S.A.
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Some perspectives
• Iowa – the epicenter of biofuels growth
• The U.S. – rapid expansion & huge agricultural changes
• Brazil – also expanding very rapidly
• Global impacts
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Other Countries with Ethanol Fuels• Canada• China• EU• Thailand
Countries considering ethanol fuels• South Africa• Ukraine• Japan
Biodiesel– Competition for crop land
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International Impacts• U.S. ethanol plants under construction to
use 58 mil. tons of corn (doubling use)– 3.5 times the volume of Japan imports of
U.S. corn– 130% of 2006 EU corn crop– 70% of global corn exports
• Other countries are expanding ethanol & biodiesel
• Strong negative impacts on animal ag.• Higher food costs ahead• Major risk-management challenges in Ag.
& bioenergy
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USDA 07-08
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Chinese Corn-Ethanol Plant
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U.S. Corn-Ethanol Plant
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New York Crude Oil
Futures Prices
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Corn-ethanol: partial solution to energy challenges
Other feedstocks needed•Municipal wastes•Animal agriculture wastes•Forest product wastes•New crops
New automotive technology•Hybrid gas/electric vehicles•New engine & vehicle designs•Hydrogen fuels & fuel cells•Hybrid diesel & algae
Diversification of energy sourcesIncentives for increased mass transportation
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73,458 (28,834) (1,834)73,458 (28,834) (1,834)
Warren
Boone
Audubon
Pottawattamie
Mills
Fremont Page
Montgomery
Cass
Harrison
Monona
Shelby
Crawford Carroll
Adams Union
RinggoldTaylor Decatur
Clarke
Greene
Adair
Guthrie
Madison
Dallas Polk
Dickinson
Cherokee
Woodbury
Plymouth
Ida Sac
BuenaVista
Sioux
Lyon
ClayO'Brien
Osceola
Humboldt
Calhoun
Pocahontas
HamiltonWebster
Wright
Kossuth
Palo Alto
Emmet
Hancock
Winnebago
Clinton
Keokuk
Wapello
Wayne
Lucas
DavisAppanoose
Monroe
Marion
Jasper
Mahaska
Poweshiek
Louisa
Van Buren
Jefferson
Lee
Henry
Des Moines
Johnson
Washington
IowaScott
Muscatine
Cedar
Howard
Black HawkHardin
StoryTama
Marshall
Grundy
Worth
Franklin
Cerro Gordo
BremerButler
Mitchell
Floyd Chickasaw
Buchanan Delaware
LinnBentonJackson
Jones
Dubuque
Fayette
Winneshiek
Clayton
Allamakee
1
Iowa Corn Processing Plants, 2001
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Iowa corn processing & ethanol plants, current & planned, 10/26/06
63
Sac
Linn
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Clay Kosuth
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Page
Storyr Jones
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Adair
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Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
BuenaVista
BlackHawk
Appanoose
CerroGordo
VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
Iowa Corn Processing & Ethanol Plant Locations, Actual & Planned. 9/26/06,
PoweshiekPolk
BooneGreeneCarrollCrawford
Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
Floyd Chickasaw
Webster Hardin
Louisa
Emmet
Palo Alto
Hancock
Worth Mitchell HowardWinneshiek Allamakee
BremerButler
Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
Delaware
Dubuque
Jackson
Clintonn
Guthrie Dallas
Johnson
Marshall
Pottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Madison
Warren Marion Mahaska
Keokuk
Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe
Taylor Ringgold
Cherokee
Calhoun
Decatur Wayne Davis
Henry
Scott
Humboldt
Clayton
Cedar
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Cass
Iowa*
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Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
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Storyr Jones
Fayette
Adair
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Wapello
Pocahontas
Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
BuenaVista
BlackHawk
Appanoose
CerroGordo
VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
Iowa Corn Processing & Ethanol Plant Locations, Actual & Planned. 9/26/06,
PoweshiekPolk
BooneGreeneCarrollCrawford
Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
Floyd Chickasaw
Webster Hardin
Louisa
Emmet
Palo Alto
Hancock
Worth Mitchell HowardWinneshiek Allamakee
BremerButler
Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
Delaware
Dubuque
Jackson
Clintonn
Guthrie Dallas
Johnson
Marshall
Pottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Madison
Warren Marion Mahaska
Keokuk
Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe
Taylor Ringgold
Cherokee
Calhoun
Decatur Wayne Davis
Henry
Scott
Humboldt
Clayton
Cedar
Sioux
Cass
Iowa*
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Clay Kosuth
Jasper
Lyon
Page
Storyr Jones
Fayette
Adair
Bentonn
Wapello
Pocahontas
Osceola
Jefferson
Audubon
Washington
BuenaVista
BlackHawk
Appanoose
CerroGordo
VanBuren
Mucatine
Dickenson
DesMoines
Winnebago
Montgomery
,
PoweshiekPolk
BooneGreeneCarrollCrawford
Plymouth
O’Brien
Woodbury
Monona
Harrison Shelby
Wright Franklin
Floyd Chickasaw
Webster Hardin
Louisa
Emmet
Palo Alto
Hancock
Worth Mitchell HowardWinneshiek Allamakee
BremerButler
Hamilton GrundyBuchanan
Delaware
Dubuque
Jackson
Clintonn
Guthrie Dallas
Johnson
Marshall
Pottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Madison
Warren Marion Mahaska
Keokuk
Adams Union Clarke Lucas Monroe
Taylor Ringgold
Cherokee
Calhoun
Decatur Wayne Davis
Henry
Scott
Humboldt
Clayton
Cedar
Sioux
Cass
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66 Planned + current in Iowa11 Just across the borders
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Figure 1.
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Iowa corn processing & ethanol plants, current & planned, 11/20/06
63
Capacity: 129% of 2006 cropCapacity: 142% of 2006 Crop
Iowa Corn Processing Plants, Current & Planned, 5/30/07
71 Potential Iowa Plants 11 Just across IA Borders
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*Needed corn Acres @ 188 bu./A. state avg. in 2010
*** *
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Needed Yld. @ current Acres
?
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Existing & Planned U.S. Corn Processing Plants
Blue = OperatingRed = constructionGreen = plannedPink = Expansion of Existing plants
Figure 2.
8/30/06
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A.
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How Much More U.S. Construction to Reach 5.5 Bil. Bu. Corn for
Ethanol?• Operating plants:
-- 2.15 Bil. Bu. • Plants under construction:
-- 2.0 Bil. Bu. • Plants soon to build:
-- 0.2 Bil. Bu. Total: 4.35 Bil. Bu. Capacity needed:
1.15 Bil. Bu. (About 32 plants @ 100 mil. gal./yr.)
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Ethanol Economics• $0.10/gal. increase in ethanol price raises break-
even Corn price $0.28/bu.• $1.00/bu. rise in corn price increases cost/gal.
$0.36/gal. • Ethanol prod’n cost $1.30/gal. (Univ. of Minnesota-
@$2/bu. corn)
• May 25,’07 Iowa ethanol price: $2.40/gal.• Recent margin: $0.56/gal. (30%) Drops to zero @
corn price of about $5.00/bu. in IA -- up 44-46% from May 25 price
• Other variables: DDGS price, Natural Gas • Note: Plant construction costs have risen sharply
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5.9 Bil. Bu. Corn for ethanol by 2012
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5.9 Bil. Bu. For Ethanol
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Source of data: USDA, NASS
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Illinois Corn Yields Drought Tolerant?
2004 2005• NW 184 140• NE 174 129 • WEST 192 141• E.SE. 175 139 • SW 158 133• SE 158 130
% chg.
-24
-26
-27
-21
-16
-18
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$ per Gal.
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Potential U.S. DGS demand by 20Potential U.S. DGS demand by 2012
COF @ 20% of ration 7.1 mil. T. Dairy @ 20% of ration 6.13 mil. T. Hogs @15% of ration 6.72 mil. T.
Total 19.95 mil.T.
Potential productionPotential production 46.8 Mil. T.
5.5 Bil. Bu for ethanol
With 6.5 bil. Bu.: 51.8 Mil. T
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Mil. Acre shifts to corn:Hay: 1.0 milCRP: 3.0
Coton: 0.6S. Red wheat: 4.3Other wheat: 0.4; oats 1.0
5.5 bil. Gallons of Ethanol
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Implications for U.S. and World Livestock, Poultry & Food Costs
• U.S. supplies 2/3 of world corn exports, 20-25% of wheat & 35-40% of cotton exports
• Costs of livestock & poultry feed up• Large increase in variability of feed & food
costs• Food aid impacts?• Accelerated ag expansion into areas with
fragile eco systems • Shift livestock industries from U.S. to South
America? • Rural employment implications in U.S.
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Infrastructure Needs of bioenergy Market(Time Frame: 3 to 5 years)
Sharp Increases in:• Inputs for corn production• Corn receiving, drying, storage, farm
transporting infrastructure• Efficient rail shipping of ethanol & DDGS• More tank cars for ethanol movement• Electric power generation• Water supply systems• Research on pipelines for ethanol• Retail facilities for E-85, E-20 & E-30 stations
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U.S. Cellulose Ethanol
• At least 2 pilot plants being developed• Expect extensive U.S. government emphasisPotential Feedstocks:• DDGS• Corn stover• Prairie grasses• Forest wastes• Municipal wastesResearch for major handling & storage challenges
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Environmental Issuesfor Research: ethanol
• Impact on groundwater supplies• Long-term effects, mono-culture ag.• Allowable maximum removal of
corn stover & grasseso Soil erosion impactso Soil organic matter impactso Diminished wildlife habitatso Water quality impacts from
more fertilizer
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Key Issues for Agriculture• Alternative feedstocks: which ones, how
soon? Biomass, sweet sorghum, sugar beets, high-oil crops, cane sugar, others
• Differential impacts on livestock & poultry species
• Environmental: continuous corn, off-take of biomass, erosion-prone land
• Efficient use of distillers grain, including new uses
• Risk Management: livestock, crops, ethanol
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Key Issues for Agriculture, II• Future transition of corn-ethanol plants to
other feedstocks• Policy issues: import tax, blending credit, LDPs,
CCPs, E-85 vs. E-10, pipeline possibilities, vehicle redesigning, Hydrogen sources
• Global developments: EU biodiesel, Brazil export potential, Asia, S. Africa bioenergy & global grain supply, demand & prices
• Infrastructure needs: grain handling & storage, transportation, ethanol & ddgs transport
• High Prices encourage oil exploration & conservation
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What Could Change Prospects of Tightening Global Grain Supply?
• Accelerated corn yield increases• Crude oil price collapse• Early break-through in economical
cellulose conversion• U.S.Ethanol import tax removed – longer
term impacts• U.S. $0.51 blending credit reduced or
made variable• Declining global livestock feeding
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http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/wisner/