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Bin i kh hu v bn vng ti chnh vi mNghin cu trng hp: BSCL Vit Namn v ti tr: Qy Citi Ngn hng Citi & T chc Cordaid

NHM CNG TC TI CHNH VI M VIT NAM (MFWG) Nhm t vn c lpH Ni, 2012Ni dung trnh byPhn 1: Tng quan v nghin cuPhn 2: Kt quPhn 3: Tho lun & Kin ngh

2Phn 1: Tng quan v nghin cu

3Gii thiuy l mt nghin cu nhanh do MFWG y nhim.Da vo thng tin t 3 t chc tn dng vi m hot ng BSCL:

Qu h tr ph n pht trin kinh t Tin Giang (MOM)D n tn dng h tr ph n ngho huyn Th Tha, Long An Qu h tr ph n ngho Sc Trng4Mc tiuTm hiu nhng thch thc ca Bin i kh hu i vi cc t chc TCVM v khch hng ca h.Nng cao nhn thc cc bn lin quan bao gm nhng ngi lm TCVM, nhn vin nh nc, cc chuyn gia, nh ti tr, nh u t, v nhng ngi khc v tc ng ca BKH ln TCVM, v s cn thit thch ng TCVM vi cc tc ng ca BKHa ra nhng kin ngh nng cao v pht trin cc sn phm v dch v TCVM nhm gim tnh b tn thng ca ngi ngho i vi BKH v tng tnh bn vng ca cc t chc cung cp TCVM bn chnh thc.5Phng phpTham kho ti liu v cc d bo BKH i vi BSClPhng vn h cc khch hng TCVM bng phng php phng vn bn cu trcCc nghin cu trng hp cc h tiu biu thng qua phng vn su.Phng vn su i din cc t chc TCVMThu thp thng tin th cp t:S liu ca cc t chc TCVMCc bo co ti chnh ca cc t chc TCVM.

6Phn 2. KT QU

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Cc khuynh hng kh hu BSCL(1970-2007)Ma:Lng ma tng 5.5%, tng ng 95mmMa ma n sm 3 ngy v kt thc mun 3 ngy

Figure 1: Trend of rainfall in the Mekong Delta from 1970 to 2007. Source: Luong Van Viet (2008)

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Cc khuynh hng kh hu BSCL(1970-2007)Nhit Nhit trung bnh nm tng 0.60CVo su trong t lin, nhit tng r rt hnNhit tng ma kh nhiu hn ma ma; nhit ma kh tng nhiu hn ma ma khong 0.210C n 0.240 C . Figure 2: Mean temperature trend in the Mekong Delta

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Cc khuynh hng kh hu BSCL(1970-2007)Nc bin dngTrm vng tu: 14cm, 13cm, 12 cm (max, min, trung bnh)Si gn-ng Nai v BSCL: 9-12 cm

10Lng ma d bo (% thay i so vi 1980-1999)Tng lng ma trong ma ma (T6-T11)Gim lng ma trong ma kh (T12-T5)Kch bnThngGiai onB220202030204020502060207020802090210012-2-3.0-4.4-6.2-8.1-8.7-11.4-12.8-14.2-15.83-5-2.8-4.1-5.8-7.5-9.1-10.6-12.0-13.2-14.36-80.30.50.60.91.11.21.41.51.69-112.63.85.36.88.39.69.611.913.0Ngun: D n Quy hoch tng th BSCL Vietnam-H Lan, bn cui 201011Nhit d bo( C, so vi 1980-1999)Nhit s tng trong tt c cc giai onTng ma ma (T6-11) nhiu hn trong ma kh (T12-5)Kch bnThngGiai onB220202030204020502060207020802090210012-20.30.50.60.81.01.31.51.51.73-50.40.60.80.91.21.41.71.81.96-80.50.70.91.21.51.82.02.12.19-110.50.60.91.21.41.81.92.12.3Ngun: D n Quy hoch tng th BSCL Vietnam-H Lan, bn cui 201012

D bo mc nc bin (cm) (so vi 1980-1999)Mc nc bin s tip tc tng 75 so vi 1980-1999, n cui th k.nh hng su v din tch ngp BSCLXm nhp mn su hn vo t lin, c bit trong ma kh.nh hng nng nghip, cp nc, v cc ngnh khcKch bnGiai onB220202030204020502060207020802090210012172330374654647513

Cc hin tng thi tit bt thng quan st ti a phng trong 5-10 nm qua Nhit :Khng nh trc y, by gi 9 gi sng nng.Nng dn khng chu ni nng sau 10 gi sng v phi ngng lm.Bui chiu ngoi ng qu nng. Trc y nng dn c th lm bui sng tr hn v lm c trong bui chiu.Nng dn thy mau mt sc hn khi lm vic ngoi nng.14

Cc hin tng thi tit bt thng quan st ti a phng trong 5-10 nm quaMa:Ma bt thng hn. C khi ma lin tc vi ngy, c khi khng c git ma noNhng m ma ln lm ngp t trong cc kim sot mn, gy ng hoa mu.Ma tri ma vo ma kh. Ma ln xy ra gia ma kh v nhng t hn ngn xy ra trong ma ma.Trc kia, ma ngng l mt. By gi sau ma vn nng hn.Ma thng km theo gi mnh lm tc mi nh v lm cho la b lp.Nhng t nng nng sau ma gy hn hn. mt s ni, khng bn phn c v thiu nc v b xm nhp mn.Ma v khng cn r rng, khng th on c nh trc y. By gi gn Tt cng c ma.Nhng t hn xy ra vo gia ma ma nh hng cy trng.

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Cc hin tng thi tit bt thng quan st ti a phng trong 5-10 nm quaL:L ngy cng him BSCL (khng c l cao t 2000 n 2010)Trn l cao 2011, ng lng b ngp mt s x Tin Giang.Ngi dn phi chi ph tn cao nn nh.Nc chy vo nhanh hn t Sng Mekong do mt rng v do h thng knh o nhiu hn. vng ven sng h lu nh Sc Trng, nc gy ngp b sng thm ch khi ma ma kt thc.16

Cc hin tng thi tit bt thng quan st ti a phng trong 5-10 nm quaGi, Bo:Dc b bin G Cng:Bo thng xuyn hn so vi trc y (40 nm trc)Lc v gi mnh hn 10 nm trcGi ma cng mnh hn huyn Tn Phc, Tin Giang v huyn Vnh Chu, Sc TrngGi mnh lm tc mi nhiu nh l.17

Cc hin tng thi tit bt thng quan st ti a phng trong 5-10 nm quaXm nhp mn v st l b bin:Xm nhp mn kh on hn (2005 mn su hn vo t lin; 2012 t mn hn do ma)i khi ng la b kh nc mn thm sang t ao tm bn cnh.St l b bin nghim trng Vnh Chu, Trn , C Lao Dung; mt phn do mt rng ngp mn.18

Nhng thay i thi tit nh hng n TCVM nh th no?Mc ch vay:Hu ht cc h khch hng vay cho mc ch nng nghip (Nng nghip= canh tc + chn nui)K tip l vay bun bn nh, dch v, lm hng th cngCc h nui tm t vay TDVM v cc khon vay 3-7 triu l nh, khng nui tm.19Tc ng ca cc hin tng thi tit gn y i vi sinh kSinh k khng da vo t:Nhng ngi nu ru cho bit cht lng v sn lng ru b nh hng bi thi tit tht thng.Ngi bun bn nh b thit hi khi c l ln 2011 khong 1 thng vo nh l v ng x b ngp(L tr nn him BSCL, sau 10 nm 2000-2010, c 1 nm l cao l nm 2011)20Tc ng ca cc hin tng thi tit gn y i vi sinh kSinh k da vo t:Ma ln lm la chn b spLa ang ngm sa b h hng nu ma v gi ln xy ra.Nhit nng v bc hi nhiu gy hn hn lm x phn t t lm cht maMa tri ma trong ma kh lm cy n qu nh xoi khng ra tri.Ma tri ma v ma ln trong ma kh gy ngp cc b lm h hng hoa mu c c nh hnh tm v c ci.Nhng t nng nng lm h hng rau G Cng, Tin Giang.Ma tri ma trong ma kh lm long nc mn trong ao tm lm tm cht.Trong nhng nm hn, nc mn x t ao tm bn cnh sang ng la, lm cht la.21Cc tc ng khcCc tc ng phi kh hu khc nh hng sinh k a phngS dng nng dc nhiuGi c th trng bp bnh, nh hng li nhunBnh gia sc, tm, c xy ra thng hnCc tc ng khc ca BKHNhit cao hn, nh hng sc kheL ln nm 2011 lm ngp ng lng.Cc tc ng tim tng t thy in Mekong:Nng nghipThy sn nc ngtThy sn binSt l b sng, b binnh hng dy chuyn.22Tnh hnh thu nhp ca khch hngNgun thu nhp ca cc h khch hng kh a dngV: chn nui, bun bn nh, dch vChng: th h, lm thu, canh tc, nui cThu nhp t ngun vay TCVM khng phi l thu nhp chnh v cc khon vay nh.Thu nhp h bin i theo gi th trngTrng ma cha hn c thu nhp caoThu nhp hin nay thp hn 2008-2010 do gi c u vo cao hn.23T l tr nT l tr vay cao 3 TC TCVM:MOM: 99.96%; Th Tha: 99.9%; Sc Trng: 99%Cc khon vay nh, d trNgun thu nhp a dngLin i trch nhim nhmDng thu nhp khc trMt s vay nng bn ngoi tr.24

PHN 3: THO LUN & KIN NGH

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V thnh tch ca cc t chc TCVM, tnh tn thng ca khch hng, v tnh bn vng ca cc t chc TCVMT l tr vay cao.Nhng khch hng cha c bo v khi cc tc ng ca BKHTt c 3 TC TCVM cha c chun b g p ng cc thch thc BKHiu ny s nh hung tnh bn vng ca cc TC TCVM26Kin ngh1. a dng ha sn phm TCVMTit kim t nguyn - thch ng vi nhng s bt thngBo him hoa mu i vi thi tit tht thngXy dng k nng qun l ti chnh, lp k hoch sinh k, k thut canh tcCho vay phc hi sau thm ha.272. p dng s uyn chuyn i vi cc khon vayBKH nh hng khch hng khc nhau. Vng ven bin khc vng ni a.Thng thng, TCVM cho vay vi cc khon tr gp c nh, khng khc nhau gia cc loi hnh sinh k.S uyn chuyn, v d khon tr gp nh hn, hoc tng thi gian tr vay theo ma hoc loi hnh sinh kKhi c thm ha, xem xt gin n, hoc trong trng hp xu nht, xem xt xa n.Kin ngh283. iu chnh cc sn phm TCVM hin cKhuyn khch khch hng vay li dng nhng li ch v trnh cc tc ng tiu ccV d: ma l Tin Giang, ng Thp cho vay lm vn rau ni, mua xung i hi bng sn, rau mung, bng in in, hoc mua bm bm nc trong ng la ra khi c ma tri ma vo ma kh.

294. Xy dng chin lc thch ng BKH cho khch hng TCVM.Bn thn cc t chc TCVM nn nhy cm kh huNhn thc cc kh khn mi ca khch hngXy dng chin lc gip khch hng thch ng cc kh khn mi.Cn b thc a phi c trang b kin thc BKHTp hun v thng tin cho khch hng v cch qun l ri ro, k nng canh tc gim tc ng ca thi tit tht thng.Kin ngh30Tng cng vn x hi cho ngi vayNgi ngho, c bit l ph n ngho nng thn, gp nhiu tr ngi: s c lp v x hi, a l, dt, thiu t tin, t kinh nghim kinh doanh, suy dinh dng.Gii quyt cc tr ngi ny cn ci thin s h tr ca cc mng li x hi v k nng, kin thc ca cc nhn v tp th:Cc cu lc b trao i thng tin, kinh nghim sn xutCc nhm i cng gip tng ngun lc cho khch hng thch ng vi nhng bin i.iu kin vay nn khuyn khch ngi vay thnh lp nhng nhm h tr ln nhau.Kin ngh316. p dng cc cng c TCVM xanhTr nc ma trong ao, bn cha ti v sinh hot nhng vng thiu nc. Nhng k thut n gin ny hin c BSCL. V d C Mau.Cc khon vay s dng nng lng ti to (l biogas, l mt tri, tm nng lng mt tri) thp sng v nu.t iu kin khch hng vay phi lm nn nh cao hn mc l lch s hay khng trng cc loi hoa mu d b hng do thi tit tht thng, hn hn, mn.Kin ngh327. Kt hp TCVM vi cc chin lc khcCh cc dch v TCVM khng thi th khng gii quyt cc vn phc tp v ngho v tnh tn thng:TCVM c th kt hp vi gio dc hay cc chin lc khc ca quc giaHp tc vi cc t chc khc cung cp thm cc dch v phi ti chnh nh khuyn nng tp hun k nng canh tc hoc hp tc vi cc d n NGOs cung cp cc dvh v nng cao nng lc nh y t, lp k hoch sinh kt, s dng ti nguyn bn vng.H tr k thut v vn vay cho nng dn chn ging chu c cc iu kin kh hu mi (nhit cao, ma tri ma, tng mn)Kin ngh33To cc din n chia s To cc din n khu vc v quc gia cc t chc tn dng vi m v khch hng:Chia s kinh nghimTng cng hiu qu cho cc chng trnh

Kin ngh34

Cm n!

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