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Eðä Eððä Eðððä Eðñä Eñä Eñðä

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,? _ðæ í�ëôD í�ëfH í�ë�� í�ëôD í�ëfb í�ë�2Efëf.ä Efëfeä Efëfeä Efëf.ä Efëfeä Efëfôä

(ü66+ ý ä@?@_@ 2ëHf 2ë.D 2ëSô 2ëSSEfë�2ä Efë�2ä Efë��ä Efë�2ä

(ü66+ ý L7 fëe� fëef fëeb fëeHEfëfDä EfëfDä EfëfSä EfëfSä

îJo_eo ý ä@?@_@ �Sëe �Dë. �ôëH �eë2E2ëfä E�ëbä E�ëSä E�ëSä

îJo_eo ý L7 �ëDf �ëeb �ëSô �ëS2EfëfHä EfëfHä Efëfbä Efëfbä

7-2 fë.S fëHD fëHD fëDô fëe. fëDD

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îJo_eo ý ä@?@_@ �Sëô �DëS �eë. �DëfE2ëfä E�ëbä E�ë.ä E�ëHä

îJo_eo ý L7 �ëôH �ëôH �ëe2 �ëe2Efëf.ä Efëf.ä EfëfHä EfëfHä

7-2 fë.. fëHS fëHS fëDD fëDf fëD.

A@M*i �G �Uç@**ý4 hi}hittðL?t

Qrwhv = Wkh wdeoh uhsruwv wkh uhvxowv ri hvwlpdwlqj d PfFdooxp0judylw| htxdwlrq iru wkh |hdu 4<<6

iru 63 X1V1 vwdwhv dqg 43 Fdqdgldq surylqfhv1 Lq doo uhjuhvvlrqv wkh ghshqghqw yduldeoh lv wkh

orj ri h{sruwv iurp uhjlrq l wr uhjlrq m1 Wkh lqghshqghqw yduldeohv duh ghñqhg dv iroorzv= |l

dqg |m duh jurvv grphvwlf surgxfwlrq lq uhjlrqv l dqg m> glm lv wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq uhjlrqv l dqg m>

Gxpp|ýFdqdgd dqg Gxpp|ýXV duh gxpp| yduldeohv wkdw duh 4 zkhq erwk uhjlrqv duh orfdwhglq uhvshfwlyho| Fdqdgd dqg wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv/ dqg }hur rwkhuzlvh1 Wkh ñuvw wkuhh froxpqv uhsruw

uhvxowv edvhg rq qrq0xqlwdu| lqfrph hodvwlflwlhv +dv lq wkh ruljlqdo PfFdooxp uhjuhvvlrqv,/ zkloh wkh

odvw 6 froxpqv dvvxph xqlwdu| lqfrph hodvwlflwlhv1 Uhvxowv duh uhsruwhg iru wkuhh glòhuhqw vhwv ri gdwd=

vwdwh0surylqfh dqg lqwhusurylqfldo wudgh/ +ll, vwdwh0surylqfh dqg lqwhuvwdwh wudgh/ +lll, vwdwh0surylqfh/

lqwhusurylqfldo dqg lqwhuvwdwh wudgh1 Wkh erughu frhïflhqwv ErughuýXV dqg ErughuýFdqdgd duhwkh h{srqhqwldov ri wkh frhïflhqwv rq wkh uhvshfwlyh gxpp| yduldeohv1 Wkh ñqdo wkuhh urzv uhsruw

wkh erughu frhïflhqwv dqg çU5 zkhq wkh uhprwhqhvv lqglfhv +6, duh dgghg1 Urexvw vwdqgdug huuruv

duh lq sduhqwkhvhv1

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AêLíçLý?|h) �ý*|ðíçLý?|h)�L_i* �L_i*

è@h@4i|ihtG E�ý jä4 ífë.b ífëH2Efëfôä Efëfôä

E�ý jä,? KL7cäø í�ëSD í�ëDbEfëfHä EfëfHä

E�ý jä,? KL7c-ï` í�ëSHEfëf.ä

E�ý jä,? Käøc-ï` í2ëô�EfëfHä

E�ý jä,? K-ï c-ï` í�ëSSEfëfSä

úñih@}i ,hhLh N5íN5 fëfS fëfSAih4tG

çúíçú ífë�. ífëf2

N5íçú ífëfD ífëfe

A@M*i 2G ,t|ð4@|ðL? +itý*|t

Qrwhv = Wkh wdeoh uhsruwv sdudphwhu hvwlpdwhv iurp wkh wzr0frxqwu| prgho dqg wkh

pxowl0frxqwu| prgho1 Urexvw vwdqgdug huuruv duh lq sduhqwkhvhv1 Wkh wdeoh dovr

uhsruwv dyhudjh huuru whupv iru lqwhuvwdwh/ lqwhusurylqfldo dqg vwdwh0surylqfh wudgh1

N5 ç@?@_@ +ï`

AêLíçLý?|h) �L_i*

`ð|ü îLh_ih î@hhðih fë.. 2ëeDEîîä Efëfôä Efë�2ä

îLh_ih*itt Ah@_i fë.D �ë�HEûîä Efëfôä Efëf�ä

+@|ðL Eîî%ûîä �ëf2 2ëfHEfëffä EfëfHä

�ý*|ðíçLý?|h) �L_i*

`ð|ü îLh_ih î@hhðih �ëDD eëS. 2ëb.Eîîä Efëf�ä Efëfbä Efëf.ä

îLh_ih*itt Ah@_i �ëôb �ëb� �ëDeEûîä Efëffä Efëfeä Efëf�ä

+@|ðL Eîî%ûîä �ë�2 2ëee �ëbôEfëf�ä Efëfbä EfëfSä

A@M*i ôG �ý*|ð*@|ih@* +itðt|@?Ui V@hð@M*it

Qrwhv = Wkh wdeoh uhsruwv wkh dyhudjh ri Sâý4l / zkhuh wkh dyhudjh lv ghñqhg

dv wkh h{srqhqwldo ri wkh dyhudjh orjdulwkp1 Iru wkh XV wkh dyhudjh lv wdnhq

ryhu wkh 63 vwdwhv lq wkh vdpsoh/ iru Fdqdgd ryhu wkh 43 surylqfhv dqg iru

URZ ryhu wkh rwkhu 53 lqgxvwuldol}hg frxqwulhv1

N5íN5 çúíçú N5íçú N5í+ï` çúí+ï` +ï`í+ï`

AêLíçLý?|h) �L_i*

+@|ðL îî%ûî �ëfD eëô� fëe�Efëf�ä Efëôeä Efëf2ä

#ýi |L Mð*@|ih@* �ëf �ëf fë�bhitðt|@?Ui Efëfä Efëfä Efëf�ä

#ýi |L 4ý*|ð*@|ih@* �ëfD eëô� 2ë�ôhitðt|@?Ui Efëf�ä Efëôeä Efëfbä

�ý*|ðíçLý?|h) �L_i*

+@|ðL îî%ûî �ë2D DëbS fëDS fëef fëeS fë.�Efëf2ä Efëe2ä Efëfôä Efëf�ä Efëf�ä Efëf2ä

#ýi |L Mð*@|ih@* �ëf �ëf fë2f fë�b fë�f fë�bhitðt|@?Ui Efëfä Efëfä Efëf2ä Efëf�ä Efëf�ä Efëf�ä

#ýi |L 4ý*|ð*@|ih@* �ë2D DëbS 2ë.2 2ë�D eë.f ôë.�hitðt|@?Ui Efëf2ä Efëe2ä Efë�2ä Efëfbä Efëô�ä Efë2Dä

A@M*i eG W4T@U| Lu îLh_ih î@hhðiht L? îð*@|ih@* Ah@_i

Qrwhv = Wkh wdeoh uhsruwv wkh udwlr ri wudgh zlwk wkh hvwlpdwhg erughu eduulhuv +EE, wr wkdw xqghu erughuohvv

wudgh +QE,1 Wklv udwlr lv eurnhq grzq lqwr wkh lpsdfw ri erughu eduulhuv rq wudgh wkurxjk elodwhudo uhvlvwdqfh

+w4ýâlm , dqg wkurxjk pxowlodwhudo uhvlvwdqfh +Sâý4l Sâý4m ,1

AêLíçLý?|h) �L_i* �ý*|ðíçLý?|h) �L_i*

ç@?@_@ N5 ç@?@_@ N5

|üiLhi|ðU@**) UL?tðt|i?| �fëD 2ëDS �fë. 2ë2eit|ð4@|i E�ë�Sä Efë�ôä E�ëfSä Efë�2ä

�Uç@**ý4 T@h@4i|ih �SëD �ëSe �eëH �ëSôð4T*ði_ M) |üiLh) E�ëSôä Efëfbä E�ëô2ä Efë�fä

A@M*i DG W4T@U| îLh_ih L? W?|h@?@|ðL?@* Ah@_i +i*@|ðñi |L W?|ih?@|ðL?@* Ah@_i

Qrwhv = Wkh ñuvw urz ri wkh wdeoh uhsruwv wkh wkhruhwlfdoo| frqvlvwhqw hvwlpdwh ri wkh lpsdfw ri erughu

eduulhuv rq lqwudqdwlrqdo wudgh uhodwlyh wr lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh/ iru erwk Fdqdgd dqg wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1

Wkh vhfrqg urz uhsruwv wkh PfFdooxp erughu sdudphwhu lpsolhg e| wkh prgho/ zklfk surylghv d

eldvhg hvwlpdwh ri wkh lpsdfw ri erughuv rq wkh udwlr ri lqwudqdwlrqdo wr lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh1

Eðä Eððä Eðððä Eðñä Eñä Eñðä Eñððä Eñðððä

AêLíçLý?|h) �L_i*

Ah@_i Eîî%ûîä

N5íN5 �ëfD �ëfD �ëfD �ëfD �ëfe �ëfe �ëfôEfëf�ä Efëf�ä Efëf�ä Efëf�ä Efëf�ä Efëffä Efëffä

çúíçú eëô� eë2S eëô� eëe� ôëb2 ôëH2 eëô.Efëôeä Efëôeä Efëôfä Efëôbä EfëDôä Efë2bä EfëôHä

N5íçú fëe� fëe� fëe� fëe� fëDf fëDf fëDeEfëf2ä Efëf2ä Efëf2ä Efëf2ä Efëfôä Efëf2ä Efëf2ä

�Uç@**ý4 T@h@4i|ih

N5 �ëSe �ëSe �ëDH �ë.f �ëô. �ëfô �ëfDEfëfbä Efëfbä EfëfHä Efëfbä Efë��ä EfëfDä EfëfSä

çú �SëD �SëD �.ë� �Së� �2ë2 �Dëe �eëbE�ëSôä E�ëSôä E�ëSeä E�ëSDä E�ëbôä E�ëDfä E�ëSôä

�ý*|ðíçLý?|h) �L_i*

Ah@_i Eîî%ûîä

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çúíçú DëbS Dëbô Dëbf Së2� Dëf. Dëfô Dë2� eëeeEfëe2ä Efëe2ä Efëô.ä Efëebä EfëSSä EfëôSä Efëefä Efëôbä

N5íçú fëDS fëDS fëDe fëD. fëSô fëS2 fëSô fëD�Efëfôä Efëfôä Efëfôä Efëfôä EfëfDä Efëfôä Efëfôä Efëfôä

+ï`í+ï` fë.� fë.f fë.� fë.2 fëHô fëDf fëH. fë.SEfëf2ä Efëf2ä Efëf2ä Efëf2ä EfëfSä Efëf2ä Efëfeä Efëfeä

�Uç@**ý4 T@h@4i|ih

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çú �eëH �eëH �Dëô �eëD ��ë� �ôëS �2ëb �2ëeE�ëô2ä E�ëô2ä E�ëôeä E�ëôôä E�ëD.ä E�ëô.ä E�ë2bä E�ë2Dä

A@M*i SG 5i?tð|ðñð|) ú?@*)tðt

Qrwhv = Wkh wdeoh uhsruwv vhqvlwlylw| dqdo|vlv zlwk uhjdugv wr wkh udwlr ri wudgh zlwk erughu eduulhuv

wr wudgh zlwkrxw erughu eduulhuv dqg zlwk uhjdugv wr wkh PfFdooxp erughu sdudphwhuv lpsolhg e|

wkh prgho1 Froxpq +l, uhshdwv uhvxowv iurp wkh ehqfkpdun uhjuhvvlrq1 Froxpq +ll, dvvxphv â @ 43

+lq wkh ehqfkpdun â @ 8,1 Froxpqv +lll, dqg +ly, uhsruw uhvxowv zkhq uhvshfwlyho| grxeolqj dqg

kdoylqj glvwdqfhv lqwhuqdo wr uhjlrqv dqg frxqwulhv1 Froxpq +y, uhsruwv uhvxowv edvhg rq d uhjuhvvlrq

wkdw grhv qrw xvh lqwhuvwdwh gdwd1 Froxpqv +yl, dqg +yll, uhsruw uhvxowv zkhq lqfrph | lv uhsodfhg

e| {ò| zlwk { uhvshfwlyho| lqfrph | dqg shu fdslwd lqfrph |@Q 1 {ò uhsuhvhqwv wkh iudfwlrq vshqw rq

wudgdeohv lq d uhjlrq ru frxqwu|1 Wkh ñqdo froxpq uhsruwv iru wkh pxowl0frxqwu| fdvh uhvxowv zkhq

plqlpl}lqj wkh vxp ri doo vtxduhg huuru whupv/ lqfoxglqj wkrvh lqyroylqj URZ frxqwulhv1