bfff frozen food report ii
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Frozen Food ReportAn in-depth look at the UK’s frozen food industry, its achievements and the factors that will influence its growth.
CONTRIBUTORS The Frozen Food Report II has been compiled with support of the following contributors: 2 Sisters Food GroupArdo UK LtdBirds Eye LtdBidvest FoodserviceBrakes GroupCGA StrategyHorizonsKantar WorldpanelMCA (formerly M&CAllegra)MDC Foods LtdMoy Park LtdYoung’s Seafood Ltd We would like to thank all contributors for their support.
IntroductionRetailFoodserviceNPD and innovationIndustry promotion
Contents
IntroductionRetailOur changing eating habitsShopping habitsFrozen at homeInnovating for the futureThe store of the futureFoodserviceFoodservice innovation growsPubs
ForewordExecutive summary
IntroductionGreater use of technologyThe UK is now a smartphone societyGrowing concerns about health and wellbeingSupply chainFood wasteFoodservice
Frozen food renaissance: Wayne Hudson, MD Birds Eye
The future of retail: Peter Ward, CEO Young’s Seafood
Where next for foodservice? Ken McMeikan, CEO Brakes Group
Looking ahead: foodservice 2015–2020: Andrew Selley, CE Bidvest Foodservice
So what’s new on the menu?
Concluding comments from the chief executiveReferences
Chapter 1 Market growth & performance 2010–2015
Chapter 2 Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour
Chapter 3 Trends driving the food industry
Chapter 4 The retail future for frozen
Chapter 5 The future of frozen in foodservice
Chapter 6
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Freezing is one of nature’s best and simplest ways to keep food fresh and free from preservatives. Freezing keeps food in peak condition, ensuring that as much or as little food as is needed can be consumed as and when it’s wanted.
Consumers and chefs recognise these benefits and have voted with their wallets, driving real value growth in the market at a time when consumers and businesses have been selective about how they spend their cash.
This vote of confidence has driven retail sales up to £5.73 billion and generated £2.4 billion worth of sales in foodservice. Such a large market supports many of the UK’s leading food brands, retailers and foodservice operators helping to drive innovation and new product development like never before.
As a result a new generation of premium frozen products are now delighting customers in all areas of the food market encouraging the industry to continue to innovate.
The case for frozen food is no longer in dispute thanks largely to the BFFF and our members who have built up a significant bank of evidence to promote the nutritional, cost, quality and sustainability benefits of frozen.
Whilst much remains to be done, I am extremely proud of what the industry has achieved over the last five years and look forward to frozen continuing to go from strength to strength in the next five years.
Foreword
Brian Young Chief Executive, British Frozen Food Federation
The UK’s frozen food industry is a real success story. Every day of the week we provide delicious, nutritious, affordable food to millions of consumers and diners in households and catering establishments across the UK.
3
The Frozen Food Report II looks at four broad themes driving the market:
● Market growth
● Changing customer perceptions
● Food industry drivers
● The future of frozen.
Market growth
The value of frozen food sold in the UK now exceeds £8 billion in both retail and foodservice.
The retail frozen food market has continued to grow by 0.4% year on year (yoy) and is now worth £5.73 billion.
In the £2.24 billion foodservice market, growing consumer confidence has seen a recovery, particularly in quick service restaurants, hotels and casual dining which have seen frozen sales grow. However, continued challenges in the pub market have held back growth in this important sector for frozen.
Changing customer perceptions
Consumers are getting the message that frozen food is good quality, nutritious and convenient.
The industry has been very active promoting frozen to consumers via our Cool Cookery campaign. This has been echoed by brands and retailers such as Young’s, McCain, Birds Eye, Iceland and Sainsbury’s who have highlighted the benefits of frozen in their
marketing campaigns and developed exciting new products.
These increasingly positive attitudes to frozen have been reinforced by encouraging messages about frozen food from celebrity chefs such as Jamie Oliver, who has advocated cooking with frozen.
In foodservice, consumer taste tests conducted in 2012 revealed that diners believed meals made from frozen food looked good, tasted good and smelled good.
The ‘BFFF Perception and Usage of Frozen Food’ survey of 2014 showed that 86% of chefs and caterers believe that frozen foods are frozen at the peak of their quality and 82% of chefs and caterers understand that freezing locks in freshness into products. Food industry drivers
The frozen industry is ideally placed to respond to a number of health and sustainability themes that are driving public policy and food industry trends.
Frozen food can help people to eat a healthy, balanced diet by providing nutritious, preservative-free food. Frozen can also improve menu planning and portion control. And there is significant evidence that the nutritional quality of frozen food can be just as good as fresh as the ‘Antioxidants in Fruit & Vegetables’ study demonstrated, which was undertaken by the University of Chester and Leatherhead Food Research.
These two independent, scientific studies on compounds in fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables indicated that frozen may have
higher levels of some antioxidants than their fresh counterparts. Investigating the content of the most commonly bought supermarket fruit and vegetables, evidence from over forty tests conducted within two studies established that in 66% of cases, frozen fruit and vegetables had higher nutritional levels of antioxidant-type compounds, including Vitamin C, polyphenols, anthocyanins, lutein and beta carotene, on day three of storage.
Around 15m tonnes of food and drink were thrown away in the UK in 2013. Freezing food prevents it from going to waste. As such, frozen food can help play a major part in tackling the issue of food waste in the UK and can play a valuable role in meeting the UK Government’s 2020 and 2050 food security targets.
For example, research from Cranfield University, titled: ‘Frozen Food and Food Security in the UK’, shows if consumers switched from fresh to frozen broccoli it would make the UK self-sufficient and also demonstrates that waste could be significantly reduced.
Researchers at Cranfield University assessed a range of factors, such as waste reduction, increasing production, providing affordable nutrition and reducing the environmental impact of food production. They concluded that frozen food already contributes to food security in the UK and expanding its use could contribute significantly more.
Executive summaryDespite a challenging period for the entire food industry, the frozen food sector has demonstrated its resilience and has enjoyed solid growth. In the next five years we are set to enjoy further growth as the industry continues to innovate and responds to changing consumer demands.
“£5.73 billion retail frozen food market.”
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“£2.24 billion foodservice market.”
“86% of chefs and caterers believe that frozen foods are frozen at the peak of
their quality.”
52 w/e 28 Apr 13
52 w/e 27 Apr 14
52 w/e 26 Apr 15
Total Frozen Sales £bn 5.6 5.7 5.8
y/y % Change 2.3 0.4
Online Frozen Sales £m 311 368 432
y/y % Change 18.1 17.4
Online Share % 5.5 6.4 7.5
Online Penetration %HH 18 20 21
Grocer Tripsize £ 4.60 4.63 4.59
Online Tripsize £ 7.49 7.26 7.11
FROZEN FOOD ONLINE SALES IN CONTEXT
150%100%50%0%
Organic
Frozen
Household
200%
TRADING INDEX ONLINE DELIVERY
Toiletries
Ambient Groceries
Fresh+ Chilled
Alcohol
Healthcare
Market outlook: Retail
The market outlook is positive. We expect the retail grocery sector will return to more normal levels of growth which might be between 1%–2% in volume terms.
The growth of online retailing will benefit frozen, which outperforms bricks and mortar retailing in this channel. Online is set to be one of the fastest growing parts of the market in the next five years. ShopperVista data shows that in 2015, 27% of British shoppers claimed to shop online for their groceries monthly, compared to 22% in 2010.
Kantar data also clearly shows that online shopping for frozen is a huge opportunity as frozen overtrades significantly compared to other sectors and household penetration continues to grow with much scope for further improvement.
Online, shoppers can see frozen products alongside the more expensive alternatives, can take away the fear of products defrosting on the way home and can easily see the wide range of mouth-wateringly good products.
Market outlook: Foodservice
The foodservice market in the UK has experienced long-term growth. Over the period from 1985 to 2013 the overall consumer spend on out of home food and drink grew at a compound average rate of 5.6% per annum. Our expectation is that foodservice will continue to show good growth and might expect to see volumes up by 3%–4% in the next five years.
More recently there has been significant growth in the education sector with the introduction of free school meals for some age groups.
As the economy improves and net disposable income grows, foodservice will undoubtedly be the beneficiary.
Foodservice operators are first to try new culinary experiences, tempt diners with new and different recipes and create new, exciting formats to relax and dine in.
6
Market growth and performance 2010–20151
Contents:
Introduction
Retail
Foodservice
NPD and innovation
Industry promotion
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9
10
11
13
8
The recession, the rise of the discounters, the horsemeat scandal and deflation, combined with changing shopping habits, have all made for a challenging retail climate.
In foodservice, many cash-strapped consumers stayed in rather than eating out. Those who
have been spending have spent less or opted for what they perceive to be better value casual dining options. Pubs have continued to be hard-hit by the long-term effects of the smoking ban combined with the effects of supermarket cheap alcohol promotions which have encouraged many drinkers to stay at home.
Introduction
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In the last five years frozen food has performed remarkably well during a period when the UK food industry has experienced dramatic change.
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Market growth and performance 2010-2015 Introduction1
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The value of the UK retail frozen food market has grown by 12.8% in the last five years and is now worth £5.73 billion.
Retail
Whilst frozen food has traditionally done well during periods when consumers have been looking for value, the sector has continued to prosper since the return of consistent economic growth at the start of 2013.
This has been particularly impressive given the challenges faced by the big four retailers and highlights the gains frozen has made at the premium and discount ends of the market.
Equally impressive has been the fact that, in a tough retail market, frozen food has bucked the trend of price deflation (see graph), as consumers have recognised the value and convenience that frozen delivers.
The Kantar Worldpanel statistics (see table) reveal that not all sectors of the market have experienced the same growth in value. Star performers have been pizza up 11.1% in value in five years, ice cream up 23.8% in the same period and frozen vegetables which have grown 13% in value over five years.
Kantar Worldpanel figures for the 52 w/e 6 December 2015 also reveal a big leap in value and volume of the frozen savoury food category with an increase on 17.7% and 6.6% respectively, as this category recovers well from recessionary woes.
Another strong performer for 2015 was the frozen ready meal category, up 2.1% in value from the previous year and now back in consistent growth with more aspirational products and brands like Bisto entering the market.
Value (000’s £) Volume (000’s tonnes)
52 w/e 28 Nov 10
52 w/e 06 Dec 15
% YOY 52 w/e 28 Nov 10
52 w/e 06 Dec 15
% YOY
Total Frozen Foods 5,110,822 5,734,979 12.2 2,016,626 2,033,496 0.8
Total Ice Cream 695,880 861,355 23.8 342,665 335,776 -2.0
Frozen Confectionary 271,459 288,331 6.2 79,036 76,029 -3.8
Frozen Fish 727,109 750,444 3.2 126,289 120,065 -4.9
Frozen Meat & Poultry 546,945 561,528 2.7 160,000 155,952 -2.5
Frozen Vegetables 410,928 464,274 13.0 290,520 297,752 2.5
Frozen Potato Products 535,294 661,437 23.6 472,624 476,820 0.9
Frozen Ready Meals 653,815 679,109 3.9 180,505 178,891 -0.9
Frozen Pizza 387,097 430,053 11.1 106,236 111,974 5.4
Frozen Savoury Food 882,295 1,038,448 17.7 262,767 280,237 6.6
RETAIL FROZEN FOOD STATISTICS NOVEMBER 2010 V DECEMBER 2015
SHOP PRICE INFLATION ANNUAL % CHANGE, FOOD AND NON-FOOD CONTRIBUTION
Non Food
Food
Overall
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
2013
Jan
2013
Feb
2013
Mar
2013
Apr
2013
May
2013
Jun
e
2013
Jul
2013
Aug
2013
Sep
2013
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Dec
2014
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2015
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Apr
2015
May
Ann
ual %
Cha
nge
Con
tribu
tion
1Market growth and performance 2010-2015Retail
10
PERFORMANCE IN 2015 SHOWS JUST HOW WELL FROZEN IS PERFORMING:
1.3%
Total wholesale foodservice L4L MAT growth
0.6% Food L4L
MAT growth
7.3% Drinks L4L
MAT growth
-3.3% Non-food L4L MAT growth
-0.1% Ambient L4L MAT growth
-3.1% Chilled L4L MAT growth
4.8% Frozen L4L MAT growth
2.8%
Total independent foodservice L4L MAT growth
2.0% Food L4L
MAT growth
5.1% Drinks L4L
MAT growth
5.3% Non-food L4L MAT growth
0.3% Ambient L4L MAT growth
-0.8% Chilled L4L MAT growth
5.4% Frozen L4L MAT growth
Returning consumer confidence has seen the market recover, driven by emerging fast food concepts, coffee shops and the further proliferation of the street food movement. Over 40% of the UK population are now eating out of home at least once a week.
Foodservice analysts, Horizons, estimates the current value of the market is £46.6 billion and forecasts the UK foodservice market will grow by more than £10 billion in value by the end of 2019, reaching £56.3 billion.
Frozen remains an important component of expenditure by the major foodservice operators.
The reported value of food sales in foodservice in 2013 was £10.45 billion of which frozen represents £2.24 billion giving frozen a 21.5% share of the market.
Categories that have seen significant growth are frozen meat, up 5.3% in the 12 months to October 2015, pizza up 14.1%, pasta up 5.5%, sweet bakery up 14.1% and yoghurt which has experienced a massive 58% increase in sales in the 12 months to October 2015.
With sales of over £1 billion, quick service restaurants (QSR) remain by far the most important sector for frozen food. The decline of pubs has continued but has slowed in recent years as they have begun to capitalise on the all-day eating opportunity by offering breakfast and coffee, afternoon tea and a range of other eating options.
In terms of channels for delivery the biggest sector for foodservice remains delivered wholesale, with over £5.5 billion of the £10.45 billion market in 2013. Contract catering and retail/other sectors were both just under £2 billion and cash and carry was just over £1 billion.
FoodserviceThe UK foodservice market is worth £46.6 billion and like the retail market, has experienced massive change.
Market growth and performance 2010-2015 Foodservice1
TOP L INE CATEGORY MARKET SHARE FOODSERVICE
Total frozen food: 32.6%
Total chilled food: 24.7%
Total ambient food: 22.5%
Total drink: 10.3%
Total non-food: 9.9%
11
Frozen has been able to tap into the contradictory market trends of premiumisation and value. During the recession, cash-strapped consumers have sought greater value. This has helped boost sales of frozen and fuelled the rise of discounters Aldi and Lidl.
Many consumers have stuck with these retailers, impressed by their quality as well as their prices. Many of the premium products stocked by these stores such as lobster, quail and venison are sold frozen. This has helped improve the quality perception of frozen.
At the same time more upmarket retailers, particularly Waitrose, have also seen their sales grow as a proportion of consumers have opted for perceived quality over price.
Sales figures are impressive. In the 52 weeks ending 16 August 2015, £35m was spent on steamed fresh vegetables, £30m on Slimming World frozen meals, £11m on Birds Eye Stir Your Senses, £5.5m on Kezie, £2.7m on Asda’s Good & Counted, £2.4m on Asda’s Good & Balanced and £2.3m on Deli di Lusso.
Innovation has helped drive the sector’s five year £650m increase in value and there are numerous examples of brands and retailers developing new products.
Sales of luxury added vegetable ingredients have seen a 65% increase between 2010 and 2015. The luxury and added value vegetable range has increased even further in 2015 with the addition of ‘ancient grains’ products such as bulgur wheat, quinoa, spiced lentils and cous cous.
The leading retail brand has been particularly active.
Birds Eye has launched a number of value added products including Stir Your Senses, a range of ready to cook meals inspired by Italian, Spanish, Indian and Thai cuisine. The brand’s Steam Fresh range capitalises on consumer demand for healthy and easy to prepare meals with a range of vegetable, rice and pasta mixes. Birds Eye has also launched the premium Inspirations range, which uses top quality ingredients to create a range that includes Fish Chargrills with Thai Coconut and Lemongrass and Peri Peri Chicken dishes.
Seafood specialist Young’s has its Gastro range of premium quality fish. Products include Basa Fillets in Tempura Batter, Cod, Spinach, Cheese & Potato Gratin with Green Beans drizzled with melted butter and orange zest and Seafood Paella.
Pizza maker Goodfellas has created the Deli di Lusso range of authentic Italian pizzas, just one of a range of premium pizzas launched by different brands in recent years.
Iceland has teamed up with the UK’s leading slimming organisation to create their first-ever selection of convenient, delicious and healthy meals including dishes such as Mediterranean-style Chicken Sausages, Hot-Smoked Salmon Farfalle and Sweet Potato Curry.
The frozen retailer has also innovated with products such as Chicken Fillets with BBQ Sauce flavoured with Jim Beam Bourbon, which won a BFFF frozen food award in 2015, and Wood Fired Ultra Thin Chicken & Bacon Pizza.
Tesco, Aldi and Asda have also introduced new award-winning frozen products such as Asda Chosen by You Ready to Roast Butter Basted Turkey Crown with Pork, Cranberry
NPD and innovationNew product development (NPD) and innovation have been instrumental in helping to grow the frozen food market in the last five years.
1Market growth and performance 2010-2015NPD and Innovation
(Top) Young’s Gastro range(Bottom) Iceland’s new range in conjunction with Slimming World.
12
TOTAL VOLUME (KGS) SALES OF RICE PRODUCTS 2010 TO 2016 F INANCIAL YEAR
& Apricot Stuffing and Tesco Finest British Parsnips Glazed with Mexican Wildflower Honey. Aldi’s Specially Selected range has also included innovations such as responsibly sourced Ecuadorian King Prawns and Specially Selected Two Succulent Beef Wellingtons.
Premium ingredients and accompaniments have also seen growth. For instance sales of frozen herbs reached £1.5m in the UK in 2014 and frozen rice products, which includes stir-fry risottos and other rice accompaniments, have seen exceptional growth of 126% in volume sales between 2010 and 2015.
The foodservice market has also seen equally impressive innovation as highlighted by the BFFF Annual Awards for frozen food, which are independently judged by the Craft Guild of Chefs. The rise of casual dining has created the need for quick to prepare, convenient and affordable ingredients and meal solutions for kitchens which do not benefit from high staffing levels. Manufacturers have also been quick to respond to an emerging demand for international flavours with a fantastic variety of products entering the market.
Recent Award winners have included:
Korean Spicy Vegetable Curry produced by KK Fine Foods. This outstanding product made with gochujang spices and soy sauce is based on the popular Korean dish of tak toritang and comes in an individual packaging format to enable portion control and quick regeneration.
Levi Roots Reggae Reggae Chicken Pasty produced by Delice de France. This superb product from Levi Roots is available in both chicken and beef variants. The pasties consist of light puff pastry filled with tender meat and Jamaican jerk seasoning to offer a contemporary alternative to the traditional British pie. As a nation, we enjoy spicy world food and Caribbean food is incredibly popular at the moment. The Levi Roots pasties create an interesting point of difference to appeal to the ever-changing consumer palate.
Mintel research reveals that over a quarter of consumers are trying to be more adventurous with their pie and pasty consumption, having eaten five or more different types of pies and pasties in the last year.
Sea Products International’s Fiery Popcorn Shrimp, under the Ocean Pearl brand is a premium quality popcorn shrimp which is very flexible in its use as it’s ideal as a starter, tapas, combo platter, buffets, surf and turf and as a filling for wraps. The spicy coating gives it a ‘Southern fried’ flavour and carries through when used with other ingredients.
Smootheelicious’ Caribbean Breeze Fruit Smoothie Sachet by Newberry International Produce. The smoothies are 100% fresh fruit packed in a convenient pre-portioned IQF sachet, for the consumer or operator to simply cut open, add a measure of juice and blend. It is simply peeled, chopped, cut fruit with no added ingredients, additives, sugars or colours. The smoothie also counts as two portions of your five-a-day requirement.
Foodservice continues to innovate, surprise and delight in equal measure and with many new restaurants popping up and innovative cuisine emerging the future looks set to be just as exciting.
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2010
/2011
2011/20
12
2012/20
13
2013/20
14
2014/20
15
GROWTH OF FROZEN PREPARED FOODS 2014 AND 2015
Frozen confectionery: +2.7%
Frozen fish: +1.3%
Frozen meat: -7.7%
Frozen poultry & game: -5.5%
Frozen prepared foods: +0.7%
Outer ring – Spend share 2015 Inner ring – Spend share 2014
5.74.1
13.1
57.3
19.8
19.4
13
4.46
57.2
Market growth and performance 2010-2015 NPD and Innovation1
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For well over five years, BFFF has led an award-winning marketing and PR campaign to promote frozen to chefs and consumers.
The consumer campaign is focussed around the Cool Cookery website which is dedicated to helping busy households find quick and nutritious meals that can be made with frozen ingredients.
Relaunched in 2016, the website provides home cooks with handy hints and tips to help make the most of their freezers and create great-tasting, convenient dishes.
The campaign has also linked-up with leading blogger collective BritMums and challenged 20 bloggers to devise a meal made using frozen meal components.
This is supported by a social media campaign allowing the industry to regularly engage with consumers on food topics, promote recipes and promote competitions.
Whilst individual brands and retailers have always promoted themselves and their products, there has been a significant rise in the level of marketing being undertaken by the sector in the last two years promoting the generic benefits of frozen.
Notable campaigns include:
Industry promotion
ICELAND’S ‘POWER OF FROZEN’ ADVERTIS ING CAMPAIGN
which highlights the naturalness, provenance and quality of frozen food.
BIRDS EYE’S IFREEZE AND ISAVE INIT IATIVE
in conjunction with Love Food Hate Waste has generated headlines and motivated consumers to buy frozen by highlighting the reduction in food waste and resulting savings that frozen delivers.
The frozen food industry has been actively investing in the promotion of frozen food.
1Market growth and performance 2010-2015Industry promotion
14
SAINSBURY’S LOVE YOUR FREEZER CAMPAIGN
featured TV and magazine advertising promoting the convenience of frozen food and resulted in major sales increases for featured products such as herbs.
DR OETKER
found an innovative way to promote its frozen pizza. It created a PR stunt by getting a Manchester restaurateur to serve its frozen pizzas to 100 local foodies without their knowledge. The diners only realised when the truth was revealed at the end of the lunch. The stunt resulted in extensive national newspaper coverage and a great deal of social media activity.
YOUNG’S SEAFOOD
has also been at the forefront of promoting the sector with its series of TV ads featuring Malcolm the cat, who sadly never gets the chance to enjoy the extensive range of Young’s fish dishes enjoyed by his owners.
McCAIN
launched a campaign to highlight genuine moments in the lives of families’ showing their kids roller-skating around the kitchen and dogs having a seat at the table, while they consume the brand’s frozen chip product.
Market growth and performance 2010-2015 Industry promotion1
Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour2
Contents:
Introduction
Retail
Our changing eating habits
Shopping habits
Frozen at home
Innovating for the future
The store of the future
Foodservice
Foodservice innovation grows
Pubs
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22
23
24
25
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Mobile technology, reduced consumer spending, new retail formats, health concerns and changing styles of eating-out have created a radical ‘new normal’ for the food industry.Throughout this period of change, frozen has adapted and continued to demonstrate its relevance both in and out of home.
IntroductionThe last five years has seen the balance of power in retail and foodservice shift in favour of the consumer. A combination of short-term drivers and long-term ‘mega trends’ have combined to have a radical effect on consumer perceptions and behaviour.
Pete Ward, CEO, Young’s Seafood
“Consumers are now as knowledgeable as they have ever been. They have experienced austere times, with
financial challenges and the need to spend their disposable incomes
wisely. They have easy access to price comparison and are prepared to shop
more frequently in their search for value and choice. They don’t even
have to leave home to shop, it can be delivered to their door.”
2
Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour Introduction2
17
As a result, shoppers are no longer loyal to one retailer and shop around for the best deal. This has helped fuel the rise of the discounters and has created more opportunities for consumers to visit a wider range of stores.
During this period consumers have been helped by very low food inflation and, from November 14 onwards, food price deflation. Despite the growth in wages consumers have continued with their value focussed shopping habits learned during the recession.
One interesting outcome of this dynamicis that the premium and value retailers are both enjoying increased sales. Consumers are prepared to pay for quality but are also demanding value and lowest price for standard items. Shoppers are no longer loyal to one
retailer, they will make multiple shopping trips to multiple retailers and the perceived stigma of shopping at the discounters simply does not exist.
According to Kantar Worldpanel, in one 12 week period in 2015, 56% of UK households shopped in the discounters. This is the result of these retailers having communicated their price messages effectively as well as advertising their quality and selection. As shoppers buy more frequently, they are tending towards fresh food for immediate consumption, which is clearly another challenge for frozen food.
However, many of the premium products offered by the discounters such as lobster, beef wellington and partridge are sold frozen,
leading consumers to begin to associate the frozen aisle with premium products. Mainstream brands have also reacted to this trend by creating convenient and quick to prepare frozen dishes such as Birds Eye’s Stir Your Senses.
The success of frozen in retail is demonstrated by the growing value of the market which now stands at £5.73 billion. Categories such as ice cream have seen a five year increase in value per kilo of 28.4%, potato products have seen a value increase of 19.8% in the same period and even the tough ready meal market has seen an increase of 7%. In a deflationary market, this growth in value demonstrates the resilience of the sector and its ability to innovate in response to consumer demand.
RetailIn retail the effects of the recession of 2009 have led to a fundamental change in shopping habits. Consumers are seeking ever greater value as wages have, until recently, remained flat.
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS (TOTAL PAY)
Inflation
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2011
Jul
2011
Sep
2011
Nov
2012
Jan
2012
Mar
2012
May
2012
Jul
2012
Sep
2012
Nov
2013
Jan
2013
Mar
2013
May
2013
Jul
2013
Sep
2013
Nov
2014
Jan
2014
Mar
2014
May
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Jul
2014
Sep
2014
Nov
2015
Jan
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Mar
2015
May
2015
Jul
2015
Sep
6
Wage growth
2Changing consumer perceptions and behaviourRetail
A key reason behind the 2015 increase in consumer confidence is the growing gap between wage rises and inflation.
GROCERY GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE POLARISED
-10 -5 151050
Aldi
20 25
Lidl
Waitrose
M&S
Total market
Iceland
All others
Morrisons
Tesco
Sainsbury’s
Co-op
Asda
Ind’s & Symbols -5.0
-2.5
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.4
-0.3
0.2
0.3
3.7
4.4
13.6
20.8
18
The information comes from the National Food Survey, which in 1940 began asking households to fill out diaries of their weekly food and drink purchases. Together with studies that replaced it from 2000, the survey data offers a fascinating snapshot of the nation’s shifting norms of eating and drinking. So what does it reveal?
Chips, fresh fruit and dried pasta have significantly increased, whilst white bread, tinned peas and meat paste are slowly disappearing from our diets.
Italian-style cooking is widespread today. But dried and fresh pasta was not even recorded on the National Food Survey until 1998. Between then and 2014, weekly household purchases in this category more than doubled.
Pizza (frozen and not frozen) rose even more dramatically, with average purchase from 2g per week in 1975 to 53g in 2014. The amount of takeaway pizzas bought per household shot up 1,000% over the same period.
Consumption of takeaway food has almost doubled since 1974, from 80g per person per week to 150g. Around 33g of this amount is chips and 56g is meat, with kebabs (10g), chicken (7g), burgers (5g) and “meat-based meals” (32g) particularly popular.
Some trends suggest that British people are becoming more prudent in what they put on their plates, with the average consumption of fruit, both fresh and processed, increasing by 50% since 1974. In 2014, UK adults ate an average of 157g of fruit per day, equivalent to almost two portions of the five-a-day recommendation from the government. Bananas have been the most popular fruit in the UK since 1996, reaching 221g per adult
per week in 2014, well above apples (131g) and oranges (48g).
Low calorie soft drinks, such as Diet Coke, represented half of all soft drinks consumed in 2014 for the first time.
Britons are spending a smaller proportion of pay on food today: 11%, compared with 24% in 1974.
Freezer revolution
According to the survey, just 15% of all UK households owned a freezer in 1974. By 2000 that figure stood at 94%.
This is matched by a drop in the popularity of canned and tinned food. The amount of canned peas bought by a typical household dropped from 88g to 14g per week between 1974 and 2014. In total, consumption of canned vegetables dropped by a third over the same period.
Meanwhile, “ready meals and convenience meat products” went up fivefold.The nation’s preferred potato dish remains the chip. Reported purchases in the category “chips (frozen and not frozen)” were three times higher in 2014 than in 1974. However, households reported buying a third less takeaway chips over the same period.
Different fish
The traditional accompaniment to chips has fared differently. A typical household bought 44g of white fish (fresh, chilled or frozen) per week in 1974. While it still remained the most popular fish choice, 40 years later that figure was just 19g.
But other types of seafood did better. Shellfish purchases rose fivefold, and those of salmon by 550%.
Our changing eating habitsFigures charting the UK’s changing food-buying patterns since 1974 have revealed major changes in our diet. Data from 150,000 households who took part in the survey of their food and drink habits from 1974–2000 were published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) in early 2016.
Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour Our changing eating habits2
GRAMS PER PERSON PER WEEK
100
80
60
40
20
0
1974 1978 1982
Pizza
Pasta
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
19
Up to the end of 2014 providing cost effective meal solutions was the driver behind in-home growth.
With the growth in wages, consumers are now looking for more premium products but the habits learned during the recession mean there is still a strong focus on value.
As a result, sales of frozen remain strong with social demographic groups who have traditionally purchased frozen.
Innovation and NPD has extended the appeal of frozen to the extent that it is now well represented in the shopping baskets of all demographic groups (see table top).
Industry-wide efforts to challenge often long-held misconceptions about frozen food have also been effective in encouraging more consumers to visit the frozen aisle. The industry has worked hard to demonstrate the value, quality, nutrition and taste that frozen delivers. To prove the case for frozen, BFFF has commissioned independent research to provide consumers with impartial evidence of the benefits of buying frozen (see box left).
Shopping habits
Using frozen food has also proven to be financially beneficial for the consumer. In 2011, BFFF commissioned the Centre for Food Innovation at Sheffield Hallam University to compare the costs of an average shopping basket when purchasing frozen versus fresh products.
The research involved reviewing one month’s grocery shopping receipts from 20, family of four households. Average costs
were compared for the 10 most commonly purchased items available in both a fresh and frozen format and the average amount of money saved was calculated.
Researchers concluded a family of four can save 34% (£7.80) per weekly basket on the top 10 items when purchasing frozen. Individual savings when choosing frozen ranged from 21% (whole chicken) to 78% (spinach).
Nearly all consumers purchase frozen food. The value for money frozen food delivers means that it has matched consumers’ desire to make their grocery spend go as far as possible.
Social ClassSpend %
52 w/e 13 Oct 13 52 w/e 12 Oct 14 52 w/e 11 Oct 15 Total Grocery Total Frozen
Total Demographics 100 100 100 100 100
Class ABC1 53.8 54.1 54.1 53.8 46.3
Class AB 25.9 26.2 26.1 25.9 20.4
Class C1 27.9 27.9 28 27.9 25.8
Class C2DE 46.2 45.9 45.9 46.2 53.7
Class C2 20.6 20.6 20.7 20.6 22.3
Class D 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.5 17.6
Class E 11.1 10.9 10.9 11.1 13.8
2010 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Always Often Rarely Never
45%
FREQUENCY OF VIS IT ING THE FROZEN FOOD AISLE IN SUPERMARKETS
FREQUENCY OF SHOPPING FOR FROZEN FOODS
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Mor
e th
an
once
a
wee
k
Onc
e a
wee
k
One
mai
n w
eekl
y sh
op
Fortn
ight
ly
Mon
thly
Less
ofte
n
Nev
er
2Changing consumer perceptions and behaviourShopping habits
BFFF FROZEN PROFITS, CONSUMER COST COMPARISON RESEARCH, SHEFFIELD HALLAM UNIVERSITY 2011
20
A quarter of UK households have an additional freezer with a further 7% owning an additional fridge freezer.
Whilst freezer ownership is ubiquitous, the freezer is used less often than the fridge. Research undertaken by Birds Eye showed that the fridge is visited 42 times in a week, making it an essential appliance in every household and used by everyone in the family.
By comparison, the freezer is visited only seven times in a week. The provider (usually mum) is considered the guardian of the freezer and the kids only go to it if the provider has asked them to take something out or to get an ice cream. As a result frozen food currently plays a role in just 13% of all meal occasions.
The frozen industry has worked hard to encourage greater use of the freezer and educate consumers about the benefits of frozen.
For instance, the BFFF’s newly revamped Cool Cookery website provides home cooks with handy hints and tips to help make the most of their freezers and create great-tasting, convenient dishes using frozen food. The website is bursting with innovative new
recipe ideas, frozen facts and FAQs, guides and insights from frozen food experts, plus competitions and guest blogs.
The endorsement of frozen by high-profile celebrity TV chefs such as Jamie Oliver has also driven growth.
Jamie has been converted to using frozen vegetables in recipes in both his Money Saving Meals book and TV series. His recommendation has helped more people realise the benefits of cooking with frozen in terms of health and nutrition, cost-effectiveness, sustainability, taste and texture.
What’s more, in 2011 Jamie launched his own frozen fish range with Young’s Seafood. The Jamie Oliver by Young’s range featured MSC-certified Pollock Fish Fingers and Crispy Salmon & Pollock Fishcakes.
Channel 4’s Food Unwrapped series, presented by Jimmy Doherty, has also helped to reinforce the message about the benefits of frozen fish, as the programme revealed, in an episode broadcast in 2014, that frozen fish was much better quality than its supermarket fish counter fresh equivalent.
Frozen at home
The industry has been encouraging households to make better use of their freezer. Our research found almost 10% of people admit to finding items older than two years in their freezer.
When we asked shoppers what was the oldest thing they’d found in their freezer, the answers astounded us. One person admitted to still owning chicken nuggets bought in 1993!
By rotating food and putting new products at the back of the freezer and bringing older ones to the front, consumers can eat food whilst in peak condition.
Frozen food continues to play a key role in providing convenient easy-to-prepare meals in households throughout the UK. Freezer ownership is widespread with only one in 50 households having no freezer.
Male
Female
KNOWLEDGE OF FREEZER CONTENTS
All70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%Yes, in detail
Yes, with a few
exceptions
Only a few items
Only one or two items
Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour Frozen at home2
Separate fridge and freezer: 35%
American style fridge freezer: 7%
Fridge with ice box: 2%
Fridge only: 2% Freezer only: 1%
Standard fridge freezer: 54%
FRIDGE AND FREEZER OWNERSHIP
BFFF MAKE FRIENDS WITH YOUR FREEZER RESEARCH, 2012
OWNERSHIP OF ADDITIONAL FRIDGE AND/OR FREEZER
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%None Additional
freezerAdditional
fridgeAdditional
fridge freezer
21
Innovating for the futureWe believe that freezing is one of the most responsible food preservation methods on the planet. It extends shelf life, locks in nutrients and dramatically reduces the amount of food that is spoiled and thrown away at all points in the supply chain.
Andy Weston-Webb, Chief Commercial Officer, Birds Eye UK and Ireland
Freezing also ensures the flavour and nutrients of food are maintained for longer. Frozen fruits and vegetables retain their nutrients almost as well as their fresh counterparts, providing they are quick-frozen, packed in airtight packaging and kept frozen during shipping.
Frozen food is uniquely positioned as it is flexible and portionable, allows for planning ahead, is naturally preserved, has nutritional benefits and offers exceptionally good value for money.
Currently however, frozen food plays a part in just 13% of all meal occasions. We know there is an opportunity to grow that figure, so innovation needs to reflect those other usage occasions.
The work that we’re doing in our ‘category vision’ recognises that there is huge opportunity for growth, with the potential of £675m of incremental sales on top of the £2.8 billion that the frozen category is already worth: that’s an opportunity for almost 25% growth.
We recognise that we need to make frozen food more relevant to the way we currently eat and live in order to break down the barriers that exist around buying ready-frozen food.
The frozen aisle is difficult to shop, with shoppers experiencing range duplication, finding it difficult to navigate and it is often an uninspiring and sterile area of the store.
We also need to overcome the provider barrier of quality perception. We need to raise expectations for adults, which we can do through investing in new product development, such as the recent Stir Your Senses range and 2014’s Inspirations range, which was ranked by Kantar as the best-selling new innovative FMCG product launched in 2014. The premium Inspirations range was crafted to combine fresh ingredients with delicious flavour combinations, meeting the needs of busy consumers by providing them with superior evening meals.
As we’ve seen through recent product launches, our industry’s ongoing focus on innovation is helping us transform the freezer aisle and revitalise a lacklustre category. Birds Eye’s category vision provides a blueprint that aims to combine both our innovation and communication platforms with improved in store execution that can drive volume and value growth.
2Changing consumer perceptions and behaviourInnovating for the future
“The freezer plays the role of the reliable back-up when the fridge cannot deliver, offering food that needs to be cooked and as such,
delayed gratification.”
Andy Weston-Webb, Birds Eye chief commercial officer UK
and Ireland.
22
Firstly, range duplication will reduce substantially. This will make way for the new and emerging markets. Secondly, space will be re-allocated based upon how we estimate sectors will grow into the future. A number of retailers have not had a major space reset in six years or more. A huge amount of change has happened in the industry within this period. With some categories in substantial contraction, others didn’t exist within this time frame but are now multi-million pound categories.
Increasingly we will see much more solution based merchandising with products bought together sold together. These may sound like basic requirements but getting these right will reduce out of stocks, improve visibility and capitalise on growth areas. Finally the fixture will provide more warmth and inspiration for the shopper.
Convenient frozen
As frozen food is predominately bought in a main shop it tends to under perform in the convenience channel. As frozen becomes more meal occasion centric so the role of frozen in convenience stores will emerge. At its most basic level ensuring the products are representative of what shoppers would expect from their main shop is crucial. Getting the range balance right between top up and meal for tonight solutions will help to drive additional higher value sales. Ensuring the correct pricing structure in this channel is very important. Selling of solutions is not only possible but welcomed by shoppers in this channel. This can drive a fundamental reassessment of what frozen has to offer.
The store of the futureThe frozen fixtures are generally uninspiring, unwelcoming, functionally laid out, with high levels of duplication. As shoppers increasingly look in store for inspiration, so the store environment will alter, says Birds Eye.
Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour The store of the future2
How Birds Eye imagines the frozen fixture of the future.
23
2Changing consumer perceptions and behaviourFoodservice
As consumers have become increasingly optimistic and wages have begun to rise there has been an uplift in eating out.
However, the out of home market is now a very different place. Whilst consumers are spending again they are still seeking value. This has led to the rise of more casual dining outlets typified by chains such as Wagamama, Nando’s, Prezzo and Zizi. The number of chain restaurants has also shown strong growth, from 7,700 outlets in 2001 to some 11,900 in 2014, a 55% rise according to specialist foodservice consultancy Horizons. Quick service restaurants (primarily takeaways, home delivery and counter-order outlets) have seen a 78% growth, from 7,600 outlets in 2001 to 13,500 in 2014.
The latest Horizons Consumer Eating Out-Look survey summarises key trends from consumers and operators.
Horizon’s Peter Backman commented: “The foodservice market is growing but only slowly as consumers are still uncertain about their financial futures.
“We have also noticed that when they do have money they are more likely to spend it on big ticket items. This means consumers are eating out a bit less and spending slightly less on each meal as well.
“When they do eat out they demand quality at affordable prices, because that’s what operators have been offering them for quite some time.”
It is the 25–34-year-old age group that eat out the most, with 60% of them eating out every week. The 18 to 24 age group follows closely behind with 56% dining out weekly.
FoodserviceLike retail, the foodservice market has been going through a period of radical change. The effects of the recession were severe as consumers held back on discretionary spending such as eating out. This trend continued well into 2011.
PERCENTAGE OF AGE GROUP EATING OUT AT LEAST WEEKLY
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013 Apr 2013 Oct 2014 Apr 2014 Oct 2015 Apr 2015 Oct
18-24
70%
25-3435-4445-54
55-6465+
1 Eat and drink out more 53
2 Go on holiday abroad 48
3 Shop for fun and pleasure 47
4 Go to events (theatre, festivals, music, concerts etc)
45
5 Put money away for retirement 43
6 Pay off debts 42
7 Upgrade my car 40
8 Give money to charities 35
9 Go to a pub/bar/club 35
10 Spend money on products and services that save time
33
TOP 10 THINGS WE’D DO IF WE HAD MORE MONEY, 2011
“30% of consumers account for 70% of eating occasions.”
CGA Peach
24
Parts of the market are, of course, growing faster than others and it is in following the development of the various sectors that we can piece together how the shape of the eating out market is likely to look in five, or even 10 years time.
Over the past few years it has clearly been pubs and quick service restaurants (ie fast food and takeaways) that have grown the fastest. This has been the case since we went through the economic downturn when consumers started reining in their eating out spend and putting more emphasis on value for money.
But while the economy is now much stronger, consumers have retained their value-for-money habit, prompting a rise in snacking, breakfast sales and lunch instead of single meal occasions. Grab-and-go food is where much of the growth now lies as consumers get used to making smaller purchases throughout the day.
We are also seeing a healthy number of new operators coming into the market, particularly in the coffee and snacking arena. Despite the proliferation of branded coffee shops on our high streets, independent, artisan outlets specialising in high quality, freshly roasted coffee with a strong food offer are continuing to emerge and expand, satisfying the demands of increasingly discerning coffee drinkers.
As a nation we have adopted the coffee purchasing habit but this third generation of
artisan coffee shops is now bringing a higher quality product to the high street often with a health-conscious, home-produced food offer that is appealing to today’s consumer.
Snacking, which includes sales through coffee shops, breakfast sales and lunches are all on the up. Currently around 3.5 billion lunch meals are sold accounting for 44.5% of the foodservice sector. This share has grown 2% since 2012 and is likely to expand by a further 5.6% by 2018.
What is clear is that consumers now expect to be able to eat wherever they are, whatever time of day it is, fuelling the demand for foodservice outlets at shopping malls, transport hubs, leisure outlets and business parks as well as on our high streets. The new generation of consumer is one that has grown up with eating out and is as accustomed to grabbing breakfast on their way to work, ordering a takeaway on an app on their smartphone, or sharing starters and desserts in a pub with friends.
But health is clearly an increasing factor in consumer choice. When consumers eat out more regularly, they want a choice of healthy foods as well as more indulgent dishes and operators, and suppliers, need to factor this into their food purchasing along with the increasing need for gluten-free, low-carb and low sugar options.
Foodservice innovation growsThe foodservice sector, including eating out and takeaway food sales, was worth £46.6 billion in 2014. And there is no doubt the market is still growing. In fact, Horizons forecasts the value to reach around £56.3 billion by 2019.
Foodservice analysts Horizons Managing Director Peter Backman looks at how the sector is performing now, and into the future.
DatePenetration of consumers eating out
Occasions eaten out in last 2 weeks
Average spend per head inc drink
Dec 09 74.1% 3.28 £11.69
Jun 10 70.2% 2.73 £11.53
Dec 10 69.1% 3.32 £10.29
Jun 11 71% 2.02 £12.69
Dec 11 72% 2.10 £13.80
Jun 12 71% 2.77 £12.30
Dec 12 68% 1.83 £14.55
June 13 67% 1.77 £13.30
Dec 13 69% 1.80 £14.41
Jun 14 71% 2.21 £12.72
Dec 14 71% 1.94 £14.48
Jun 15 69% 1.92 £12.54
CONSUMER EATING BEHAVIOUR
Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour Foodservice innovation grows2
“50% of all branded occasions are split across eight brands.”
CGA Peach
25
2Changing consumer perceptions and behaviourPubs
However, the sector is adapting to changing consumer habits. Over the past decade growth in the number of outlets serving food has been strongest in the pub sector where operators have moved primarily from wet-led sales to food-led, according to Horizons.
Their figures show the number of pub restaurants in the UK whose food sales exceed their wet sales has grown from 2,600 in 2001 to 6,100 in 2014, a 135% increase. Traditionally frozen food has been a staple of the pub kitchen and was affected by the decline of the traditional pub. However, the rise of casual pub dinning has benefited frozen food.
Pubs are also winning a share of consumer visits at breakfast as well as lunch and dinner, so much so that in the last quarter of 2014, 84% of UK adults visited pubs for meals or snacks, the highest level ever recorded by the M&C
Allegra UK Pub Market Report. The average number of pub meals per head per month also rose to a new high at 1.7, driving annual levels that exceed those for chain and local restaurants, as well as for fast food.
“Pubs have obviously struggled since 2007, but the actions of all pub companies, whether managed or tenanted, corporate or small groups, are starting to change the way that consumers utilise pubs. Pubs are reinventing their mojo and regaining their place in British society,” says MCA executive director Simon Stenning.
He adds: “Allegra has identified that for pubs to continue to strengthen their place in society they can focus on one of, or a combination of, four business models: all-day dining, a locally relevant wet-led pub, an after-work high street pub or a food destination.
PubsThe decline of the traditional pub is well documented. Four pubs closed every day in the UK in 2015, according to the Lost Pubs Project, marking the highest closure rate since 1904. The project has identified more than 29,000 closed pubs.
NET NUMBER OF PUBS CLOSING PER WEEK, DEC 2007–2013
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jun
200
8
Dec
20
08
Jun
200
9
Dec
20
09
Jun
2010
Dec
20
10
Jun
2011
Dec
20
11
Mar
20
12
Sep
2012
Mar
20
13
Dec
20
13
The BFFF ‘Perception and Usage of Frozen Food’ surveys 2012 and 2014 were completed by chefs and caterers from cost and profit sectors. The surveys reveal they are increasingly aware of the benefits of using frozen:
● 95% are now stocking and using frozen ingredients
● 86% believe that frozen foods are frozen at the peak of their quality
● 82% understand that freezing locks freshness into products: a 22% increase on 2012 results
● 94% of chefs agreed that frozen food reduced waste as it offered better portion control
● 82% claimed that frozen could help with long term menu planning
● 75% believe there is an unnecessary stigma and snobbery attached to frozen food: a 60% increase between 2012 and 2014.
PERCEPTION
26
Changing consumer perceptions and behaviour Pubs2
VALUE
The industry has worked hard to make the case for more chefs and restaurateurs to use frozen ingredients and dishes in their kitchens.
Research by the University of Salford ‘Frozen Lion – A Business Case’ has identified that using frozen food could save an average UK pub over £100,000 per annum. Researchers created a business case using a ‘real life’ pub, analysing cost centres for the 10 most popular meals sold over the course of one week. In comparison to using fresh/chilled, they concluded that a total saving of £50,000 could be achieved per year by opting for frozen ingredients, which increased to £115,000 if using ready-made frozen meals.
Pubs are having to deal with rising energy costs, continued food price inflation and the decreased spending power of their consumer base. They need foodservice industry support. In this tough economic climate there is a compelling business case for pubs to use frozen food. Buying frozen will save them money because of competitive and stable food prices, the ability to control portion sizes and wastage, plus the opportunity to cut kitchen labour costs. This will help pubs to reduce their overheads, produce more accurate pricing models and protect their profits. Frozen could help many pubs to stay afloat.
“Hybridisation of concepts and models has been one way that attracts consumers to pubs, so any possible combination of these four models will result in a hybrid pub and can potentially see the strongest growth in the pub sector.”
In addition, industry research has challenged some of the traditional attitudes of foodservice professionals by demonstrating that diners believe meals made from frozen food look good, taste good and smell good.
BFFF consumer taste tests conducted in 2012 saw diners trying two versions of the same popular pub menu meals, including hunter’s chicken with mash, burger and chips, gammon and jacket potato and fish and chips. The frozen version of each meal scored well and many participants could not tell the difference between meals prepared with fresh ingredients and those prepared with frozen.
Each meal was cooked and presented identically so that participants could not see any obvious differences between the meals. Diners were not told what the difference between each meal was until they had finished eating. The majority of participants were surprised by the results and some diners said that there ‘was no obvious difference’ between dishes.
“We wanted to demonstrate to both diners and pub owners
that it is possible to take advantage of the lower cost and reduced waste that frozen food
offers without compromising on the quality of meals served.”
Brian Young, Chief Executive, BFFF
Trends driving the food industry3
Contents:
Introduction
Greater use of technology
The UK is now a smartphone society
Growing concerns about health and wellbeing
Supply chain
Food waste
Foodservice
28
29
30
31
33
34
35
28
As we know markets never stand still, so what are the trends that will drive change in the next five years and how is the frozen industry responding?
We believe three major trends will affect the way consumers buy food and where they choose to eat. These are:
● Greater use of technology when shopping and eating out
● Growing concerns about health, wellbeing and provenance
● Environmental considerations, particularly food waste.
IntroductionWe have seen in Chapters 1 and 2 the growing value of the frozen food industry and how it has responded to changing consumer shopping and eating out habits by innovating and demonstrating to caterers and shoppers the benefits of buying and consuming frozen food.
3
3 The trends driving the food industry Introduction
29
Ofcom’s 2015 Communications Market Report reveals increasing take-up of smartphones and tablets is boosting time spent online. Over half of UK households (54%) now have a tablet, a rapid rise in popularity from just 2% in 2011.
The research shows that internet users aged 16 and above said they spent nearly 10 hours online each week in 2005. This had climbed to over 20 hours and 30 minutes in 2014, the biggest increase in time spent online in a decade.
This will have profound implications for the way we shop. Consumers will gradually move away from supermarkets in the coming decade in favour of online purchases, according to a 2014 report from Rabobank. The international financial services provider believes this will increase sales of frozen foods as it over-indexes with online orders, especially in the UK.
The Rabobank report ‘Europe’s New Ice-Age’, said this over-indexing is unlikely to disappear, since ordering frozen food online has many advantages for consumers. This, the report said, offers a prime growth opportunity for frozen food manufacturers.
It adds that as frozen foods are often purchased at the end of a shopping trip, to avoid defrosting in transit, the category suffers as shoppers may have passed the fresh and canned sections and chosen them instead. “In other words,” the report states, “online grocery shopping levels the playing field for frozen food.”
The study also suggests that online shopping will become more popular with more ‘click and collect’ stations which allow consumers more freedom than usual online shopping which requires them to appoint a specific delivery time.
“Frozen food should thrive online because there are no physical constraints in terms of shelf space, compared to stores where space dedicated to freezers is limited, partly due to relatively high storage investments and high operational costs (energy, fulfilment),” the report says.
Research from Kantar Worldpanel supports this view. It reveals that, in the future, consumers plan to more regularly shop for groceries online: this increase is only exceeded by their intention to shop more in the discounters. Until recently the discounters have not been present online but in January 2016 Aldi announced it would start selling wine online, whilst frozen food specialist Iceland pioneered online shopping in 1999 and reintroduced it in 2012.
Greater use of technologyThe internet and digital technology have already had far reaching effects on the way we live our lives. Shopping online is now widespread and the advent of smartphones has significantly increased access to the internet and time spent online.
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20192018 2020
10.0
30%
20%
10%
0%Smartphone Laptop Tablet Desktop
40%
GROWTH OF CLICK AND COLLECT SET TO CONTINUE
PROPORTION OF INTERNET USERS BY DEVICE
3The trends driving the food industryGreater use of technology
Change since 2014 percentage points
+10pp -10pp +4pp -6pp
30
The key findings of Ofcom’s 2015 Communications Market Report are:
● Smartphones overtake laptops as UK internet users’ number one device
● We’re spending two hours online on our smartphones every day; twice as long as laptops and PCs
● Superfast 4G is helping change the way we shop, bank, watch TV and communicate.
Two thirds of people now own a smartphone, using it for nearly two hours every day to browse the internet, access social media, bank and shop online.
A third (33%) of internet users see their smartphone as the most important device for going online, compared to 30% who are still sticking with their laptop.
The rise in smartphone surfing marks a clear shift since 2014, when just 22% turned to their phone first and 40% preferred their laptop.
Smartphones have become the hub of our daily lives and are now in the pockets of two thirds (66%) of UK adults, up from 39% in 2012. The vast majority (90%) of 16–24 year olds own one; but 55–64 year olds are also joining the smartphone revolution, with ownership in this age group more than doubling since 2012, from 19% to 50%.
The surge is being driven by the increasing take-up of 4G mobile broadband, providing faster online access. During 2014, 4G subscriptions have leapt from 2.7 million to 23.6 million by the end of 2014.
We now spend almost twice as long online with our smartphones than on laptops and personal computers. On average, mobile users spent nearly two hours online each day using a smartphone in March 2015 (one hour and 54 minutes), compared to just over an hour spent online by laptop and PC users (one hour and nine minutes).
But this is still only half of the three hours and 40 minutes we spend in front of the TV each day.
One of the effects of increased use of technology is a further decline in the number of shared meal occasions, especially in families, and a rise in anti-social behaviour in the home.
This trend combines with a long-term decline in the amount of time people have available to prepare a meal. We believe this will work in favour of frozen food. The industry has already demonstrated its ability to innovate and create ready to cook dishes direct from the freezer and we expect to see more and more new product development targeting ‘time poor’ consumers looking for convenience and quality.
3 The trends driving the food industry The UK is now a smartphone society
The UK is now a smartphone society
4030
2010
1980
1990
2013
50
LESS T IME IN THE KITCHEN
2015
60
Ave
rage
tim
e sp
ent (
min
utes
)
0
LESS SHARED MEAL OCCASIONS
+7% increase in non-traditional meals
30.3
6
Smartphones have overtaken laptops as the most popular device for getting online, Ofcom research has revealed, with record ownership and use transforming the way we communicate.
32
45
60
“On the go”+28%
“In front of computer”
+7%
“Quick bite”+5%
1.30 min
1 hr
30 min
0%Smartphone Laptop
2 hr
TIME SPENT ONLINE DAILY
31
3The trends driving the food industryGrowing concerns about health and wellbeing
At the same time issues such as dietary salt and sugar levels have raised greater concerns with consumers about the food they are eating and how it effects their health. Research from Kantar Worldpanel supports this view.
This trend is also a factor in foodservice, as demonstrated in the latest Horizons Consumer Eating Out-Look survey.
Horizon’s Peter Backman says: “Lifestyle issues form a significant and growing part of the repertoire of consumers when deciding where to eat out. Vegetarian options, calorie information and lower fat and sugar options all feature especially amongst women.”
Research from CGA Peach highlights the ever increasing importance that health has for customers eating at branded outlets.
Consumers are also keen to know more about the provenance of their food. A YouGov SixthSense poll in 2012 found 59% UK consumers prefer to buy UK-sourced meat and poultry compared to imported meat and nearly half (48%) prefer to buy locally-sourced products when they can.
Conventionally, diners are less concerned about where their food comes from in restaurants, than they are when doing their weekly shop in supermarkets.
But new research from December 2015 from the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board shows over half of consumers are now concerned about the provenance of meat when eating out. In addition, 57% say high animal welfare is very or quite important to them.
Equally many UK consumers are concerned about food additives. Research from the Food Standards Agency’s (FSA) Public Attitudes Tracker survey in 2014 revealed that more than a quarter of those surveyed (26%) said they were concerned about food additives ‘such as preservatives and colouring’.
Again these factors will benefit frozen food. The ability of the freezing process to preserve food in peak condition without the need for additives or preservatives has been widely recognised for many years.
In addition, the industry has worked hard to prove that freezing also preserves food at the peak of its nutritional value. And a significant bank of evidence now exists to underpin the nutritional benefits of freezing.
Growing concerns about health and wellbeingThe second trend that will benefit frozen food is increasing levels of health awareness and concerns about food provenance. As wages have increased consumers are now able to indulge themselves more when shopping and, as a result, health issues have begun to rise up the consumer agenda.
CONSUMPTION FOR HEALTH IS BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT
27
26
25
24
2013 2014 2015
28
AverageHealthy meal servings
% S
ervi
ngs
6%4%2%0%
Recently I have become more aware of whether the foods I buy are good for me
I am actively trying to manage my cholesterol level
I restrict how much sugary food I eat
8%
MORE HEALTH AWARENESS
My diet is very umportant to me
I try to lead a healthly lifestyle
10%
% change in response since 2012
“The 45% of the population who often take healthy options
into consideration make up 51% of all eating
out visits.”
CGA Peach
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As part of BFFF’s commitment to innovation and collaboration, we have worked closely with leading universities and other academic institutions renowned for their excellence in food innovation, nutrition and health including Sheffield Hallam, Salford University, Cranfield University, Chester University and Leatherhead Frozen Food Research.
The Food Innovation Centre at Sheffield Hallam University conducted a scientific study on hospital food provision ‘Frozen Food – Nutritional Acceptability for Hospital Food Provision’. The results highlighted that frozen food can be just as effective as ‘fresh’ in helping to achieve the National Health Service’s nutritional standards for those in hospital care. Analysing the nutritional content of hospital menus, scientists have established there was no significant difference between ‘fresh’ and frozen food for the 37 key nutrients tested.
On this basis, researchers recommend frozen food as an effective way of providing nutritious meals for those under hospital care. They also highlighted additional advantages of using frozen food on a catering scale, such as its
contribution towards alleviating cost and time restraints, freeing up of resources which could be spent on the provision, contribution to reducing food waste, improved price stability, availability and convenience.
In a sister report, also undertaken by Sheffield Hallam: “Frozen Foods – Use & Nutritional Acceptability in Primary School Lunch Provision”, researchers recommended frozen food as effective in providing appropriate nutrition for primary school children.
They noted the additional advantages of using frozen food on a catering scale, such as its contribution towards reduction in food waste, availability, convenience and improved price stability. This is due to the fast and highly organised methods of harvest and slaughter to freeze which have evolved with the express purpose of minimising nutrient losses.
In contrast, ‘fresh’ food has been shown to spend up to a month in the chain of producers, wholesalers and retailers before consumers have access to store and prepare them. During this time we know that product deterioration
takes place, to the extent that they can have lower nutritional value than their frozen equivalent.
In 2013, further research by Chester University and Leatherhead examined the effects of freezing on antioxidant levels in fruit and vegetables. Antioxidants, found in fruits and vegetables can help to keep the immune system healthy and help protect and repair cells from damage caused by free radicals.
The scientists tested a selection of widely consumed fruit and vegetables including broccoli, Brussels sprouts, spinach, carrots and blueberries. The study found that frozen fruit and vegetables can have higher levels of antioxidants than fresh, as freezing acts as nature’s preservative to lock in nutrients at their peak.
On this basis, researchers recommended frozen fruit and vegetables as effective as fresh in providing the nutrients needed to maintain a healthy diet.
3 The trends driving the food industry Growing concerns about health and wellbeing
“Scientists have established there was no significant
difference between ‘fresh’ and frozen food for the 37 key
nutrients tested.”
Factor% of consumers considering factor
Food quality 74%
Price 65%
Cleanliness 57%
Standard of service 47%
Ambience 42%
Interesting & varied menu 41%
Not being rushed 33%
Served quickly 27%
Familiar with the food 26%
Trying something new 14%
DECIDING WHERE TO EAT
Factor% of consumers considering factor
Men - Index on Total *
Women - Index on Total *
Vegetarian options 12% 70 181
Calorie information 9% 68 188
Low/reduced fat options 7% 82 141
Low/reduced sugar 5% 86 132
Reduced/low salt options 4% 119 70
‘Free From’ foods in general 4% 86 131
Gluten/gluten free options 3% 104 92
Low carbohydrate options 3% 82 142
Dairy free/lactose intolerance 2% 104 94
Vegan options 3% 73 169
CHOOSING WHAT TO EAT
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3The trends driving the food industrySupply chain
In 2014, a year after the issue, a survey carried out for The Grocer showed it had made no difference to the way the majority of people shop. Questioned by Ipsos MORI, 77% of shoppers said they hadn’t made any changes to the way they shopped for food in the past year.
Respondents were also asked who they thought was to blame for the crisis. The majority (26%) blamed regulators for failing to monitor the industry, 21% blamed suppliers and 16% blamed the supermarkets. Just 10% blamed criminals.
The entire food industry has responded to the challenge of fraud. Back in 2013, only two analytical methods were commonly
used in laboratories to detect the content of meat products.
Much has changed since then, not only is horsemeat very much on the radar of those screening for food fraud but so too are the vast number of other species from across the globe that could be used to adulterate mainstream meats or other foods. As well as better intelligence gathering, new scientific techniques have been developed to improve detection.
BFFF and its members have been closely involved in these initiatives and have actively been working with Defra to improve the integrity and assurance of food supply networks.
Supply chainFood industry supply chains have come under scrutiny following the horsemeat scandal that affected the entire industry.
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3 The trends driving the food industry Food waste
Whilst this concern may have initially been the result of cash-strapped consumers trying to make the most of every penny spent on food, it is increasingly seen as something we can all do to reduce our impact on the environment.
The ‘Love Food Hate Waste’ campaign run by the Waste & Resource Action Programme (WRAP) has highlighted that households throw away 7m tonnes of food and drink every year at a cost of £12.5 billion annually.
Consumers concerned about making the most of their money have found the long shelf life and easy portion control of frozen very appealing. These factors are also very beneficial in reducing food waste.
Awareness of the issue of food waste has also been highlighted by a number of celebrities.
Most recently, celebrity chef and campaigner, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall raised the issue in his BBC programme Hugh’s War on Waste. In addition, Jamie Oliver has been campaigning to find a use for odd shaped vegetables that are currently rejected by supermarkets.
Summary
The outlook for frozen food is positive. Ever more technologically savvy consumers will increasing shop online to the benefit of frozen food.
This combined with growing evidence that frozen food is nutritious and helps reduce food waste will see more consumers opting for frozen in retail and more caterers selecting frozen ingredients and dishes for their menus.
Food waste
Almost 50% of the total amount of food thrown away in the UK comes from our homes. We throw away 7m tonnes of food and drink from our homes every year in the UK and more than half of this is food and drink we could have eaten.
A third trend that will benefit frozen food is growing concern over the volume of food being wasted.
% OF AVOIDABLE FOOD AND DRINK WASTE BY FOOD GROUP
Fresh vegetables and salad: 19%
Drinks: 17%Bakery: 11%
Meals: 10%
Dairy and eggs: 10%
Fresh fruit: 8%
Meat and fish: 7%
Sauces, pasta, rice, cakes, desserts: 18%
FREEZING REDUCES FOOD WASTE
Independent research has highlighted the role frozen food could have in reducing food waste
Dr Wayne Martindale’s: ‘Using Consumer Surveys to Determine Food Sustainability’ research into food waste, Sheffield Hallam University 2014, found that the amount of food wasted by families across Britain could be slashed by almost 50%, that’s equivalent to three million tonnes of household waste per year, through better meal planning and eating more frozen food.
The research shows that frozen food generates 47% less food waste compared to ambient and chilled food consumed in the home. It also found that households who include more frozen foods in their weekly meal planning could save around £250 per year.
Dr Martindale’s research also discovered that greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by 2.4m tonnes a year if households incorporated frozen foods into smarter meal planning.
“Food waste costs the average household £470
a year, rising to £700 for a family with children: that’s
the equivalent of £60 a month.”
WRAP
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3The trends driving the food industryFoodservice
The reports key findings were:
● The total amount of waste, including food, packaging and other ‘non-food’ waste, produced each year at HaFS outlets is 2.87 million tonnes, of which 46% is recycled, sent to anaerobic digestion (AD) or composted
● Of this, 920,000 tonnes of food is wasted at outlets each year, 75% of which is avoidable and could have been eaten
● The amount of food that is wasted each year in the UK is equivalent to 1.3 billion meals, or one-in-six of the 8 billion meals served each year
● On average 21% of food waste arises from spoilage; 45% from food preparation and 34% from consumer plates
● 12% of all food waste is recycled
● In addition to this a further 130,000 tonnes of food waste is generated from the preparation of ready to serve food items and meals for the HaFS sector, at food manufacturing sites.
BFFF Chef’s Attitude survey 2014 revealed that 94% of chefs agreed that frozen food reduced
waste as it offered better portion control and 82% claimed that frozen could help with long term menu planning.
Clearly concerns about food waste are closely linked to broader concerns about our impact on the environment and climate change. BFFF has long believed that the ability of freezing to preserve food in peak condition for extended periods of time could play a key role in helping reduce greenhouse emissions and UK food security.
BFFF has worked with a number of leading academic institutions to establish the facts. In 2015 it worked with Cranfield University to produce the ‘Frozen Food and Food Security in the UK Report’ (see infographic over page).
This study calculated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), consumer cost and waste production for four of the most common shopping list items: cod, carrots, broccoli and potatoes. And compared typical fresh and frozen supply chains throughout the year.
It concluded that increasing the amount of food that is frozen could significantly reduce edible
food waste in the supply chain and lessen the impact of that food waste.
The researchers found that any waste created in frozen production occurred higher in the supply chain where it has less impact due to reuse and recycling options compared to fresh products wasted in the home, which often ends up in landfill.
It identified the potential waste saving of between 25% and 79% if the entire supply chain for these four products was shifted to frozen.
The report also found that frozen food can significantly reduce GHGE production for foodstuffs not produced in the UK year round:
● By increasing the use of frozen broccoli, the UK could be 100% self-sufficient in production reducing GHGE production by 15%
● Fresh Atlantic cod produces at least 50% more CO2e than frozen because the extended shelf life offered by frozen food enables more efficient transportation methods.
FoodserviceIn its 2013 report ‘Overview of Waste in the UK Hospitality and Food Service Sector’, the Waste Resource Action Programme (WRAP) calculated that in 2011 £2.5 billion of food was wasted by the hospitality and foodservice sector (HaFS). This figure is estimated to reach £3.0 billion per year by 2016.
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3 The trends driving the food industry Foodservice
FROZEN FOOD & FOOD SECURITY IN THE UK REPORT
BFFF report focused on four ingredients: Switching from fresh to frozen
POTATOES ATLANTIC COD
of food and drink in weightis wasted in the UK
(WRAP, 2013c)
GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSION (GHGE)
FROZEN BENEFITS
Frozen Atlantic cod is
BROCCOLI
Frozen broccoli �orets were found to be
CARROTS
reduce carrot waste by
reduce potato waste by
Switching from fresh to frozen broccoli could reduce
GHGE production by
Fresh Atlantic cod produces 3kg of CO2e for every kg of fresh Atlantic cod
transported from Iceland
FROZEN ATLANTIC COD FROM:
produces as little as 2kg of CO2e per kg
produces only 1.5kg of CO2e per kg
Expectations are that the global population will grow to over
9,000,000,000 by 2050 which will put pressure on the supply of food
30% less expensive than its fresh
alternative
57% less expensive
than pre-packed fresh �orets
8%13%
3kg
www.coolcookery.co.uk
self-su�cient in broccoliproduction if frozen broccoli
was used in the winter months.
Frozen food can play a valuable role in meeting the UK government’s
2020 and 2050 food security targets
A 70% increase in food production will be required if global population continues to
rise based on current levels
ICELAND CHINA
At the current growth rate, the frozen food market would:
70%
£470 Estimated economic loss per household on
food waste : a year
(WRAP, 2013c)
15%
The UK could be
100%
(FAO, 2009)
The findings of the Frozen Food and Food Security in the UK Report, are summarised in this infographic produced by BFFF.
The retail future for frozen4
Contents:
Frozen food renaissance: Wayne Hudson, MD Birds Eye UK & Ireland
The future of retail: Peter Ward, CEO Young's Seafood Ltd.
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Frozen is ideally placed to ensure that people have the freshest products always in stock at home. Moreover we are in a post recessionary era where frugality is now seen as a badge of honour.
Consumers across the country are realising that frozen food is a fantastic way to ensure you cook just what you need, throw out less food waste and generally save money on household bills. It is fair to say that frozen food has somewhat of the ‘70’s image, with the advent of ‘horsegate’ and the general low quality perceptions of frozen food. However, things are slowly changing.
The renaissance in frozen food will come, however, it will not just happen, it will require a lot of hard work by the whole industry. Only then can we show frozen food for what it is: a category in line with every major consumption trend that is great value for money, nutritious, convenient and relevant to the way we live our lives today.
The industry is now responding to this growing opportunity highlighting, in the words of the Iceland campaign, The Power of Frozen. Campaigns like this, Sainsbury’s Love Your Freezer and the Birds Eye iFreeze and iSave campaigns are showing the generic benefits of frozen food. The industry will continue to have to work hard to get the message across, particularly, that frozen is often much fresher than so called fresh products, many of which have been previously frozen.
This is a trend which is set to accelerate and will lead to a reappraisal of frozen food by the industry, shoppers and consumers alike. Retailers will increasingly realise how frozen can help with their food waste agendas, clean ingredient list drives and safe and nutritious food. Frozen food will therefore no longer be seen as a backwater at the end of the store but central to retailers’ offer.
Frozen food renaissanceWayne Hudson, Managing Director, Birds Eye UK & Ireland
We are all living busier lives, increasingly working longer hours and with a greater call on leisure time. People are travelling, eating out and are generally more interested in the quality of the food they eat. However, paradoxically we have less time to enjoy it.
4 The retail future for frozen Frozen food renaissance
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4The retail future for frozenFrozen food renaissance
Have you forgotten how good it tastes?
However this is just the start. Despite being a multi-billion pound market, savoury frozen food only participates in 13% of all meal occasions. And yet virtually every household in the land buys into frozen food. There is clearly an opportunity to expand the number of meal occasions that we play a part in.
This could easily led to the conclusion that the category growth opportunity is purely predicated on NPD. However, given the diversity of products that frozen offers: ethnic to free-from to Great British favourites like fish fingers, there is a huge opportunity to just remind people how great these products are.
There is clearly an appetite, in every sense of the word, for shoppers, consumers and, more importantly, for the providers of the meals typically and currently mums to interact with frozen much more. A more direct conversation between brand owners at one end of the meal spectrum to meal providers at the other will continue to grow.
A growing level of nostalgic fondness, another post recessionary trend, for icons such as fish fingers will continue to develop. The number of adult pub menus that a fish finger sandwich appears on is testament to this, as parents remember their childhood and look to recreate a little bit of magic for themselves and their children. This will manifest itself in the way that brands communicate with consumers being much more emotive and evocative and much less a slice-of-life type advertising.
However, the industry needs to play its part by not only stepping up the quality of the products we offer but also to communicate this to the consumer. This, in turn, will help meal providers create solutions to real life in home problems that people have. More and more meal providers will realise that frozen food on the market today has a huge amount to offer in terms of convenience, taste and value for money. As well as something that triggers, as well as builds, fantastic childhood memories.
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4 The retail future for frozen Frozen food renaissance
Beyond the family: a reassessment
However, there is a massive proportion of consumers that are not in families. Historically these groups under indexed on frozen food consumption. They have often not realised just the breadth and depth of products solutions that frozen food can offer.
The older ‘empty nester’ foodie regarded frozen food as purely processed for kids. Their frozen repertoire consisted of peas and natural fish. However, these consumers are increasingly seeing how frozen food can help them as there are a huge amount of products with genuine food values that are convenient to store and prepare.
The Sainsbury’s Love Your Freezer campaign highlighted how using frozen ingredients can be a quick and economic short cut so much so that virtually every retailer reported a substantial increase in diced frozen onion sales during this campaign and, more importantly, the up lift has been sustained.
It is not just advertising which can tempt new consumers into the frozen category. Initiatives such as meal deals, both in store and online, are showing how frozen can provide solutions from a wide range of consumer groups whether they be students living on a tight
budget, mums wanting a quick and nutritious teatime for their kids, or adults looking for a mid-week easy but tasty solution.
New product development will drive a genuine and profound reassessment of what frozen stands for. A key area for growth will be more adult orientated mid-week meal solutions. Birds Eye Inspirations, winner of Product of the Year in 2015, highlights simple easier to prepare products which fulfil this need. Unusually for frozen food this branded launch actually brought new shoppers in to the fish category as more people realised there are some great products which are convenient and easy to prepare.
Categories which fit with the modern trends of healthy eating higher quality will show big YOY increases not something normally associated with frozen food. Allied to this we will see new meal occasions for frozen increasingly developing. Initiatives such as Birds Eye Good Morning range of breakfast products and frozen fruit will continue to grow as they tap in to the speed and convenience requirements of modern living. In years to come lunch time solutions are also likely to come onto the market which provide food safe lunch solutions out of the home which do not require refrigeration.
Frozen in the digital age
Online grocery shopping is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future. Frozen currently over-trades online.
We will increasingly see a blurring of the lines between temperature delivery states with cross merchandising between ambient, chilled and frozen. Solutions either in the form of meal deal or occasion based will increasingly drive a larger proportion of sales online. The industry will also have to adapt its packaging to be more space efficient both from the retailer and in home freezer as one of the major barriers to purchase is the amount of free space people have in their freezers. In the next few years retailers that have a pick from store replenishment model will have to amend this or the space given to certain products to enable both online and in store availability remain high.
“We will increasingly see a blurring of the lines between temperature delivery states with cross merchandising between ambient, chilled
and frozen.”
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4The retail future for frozenThe future of retail
Frozen food, as a mature market, is performing very much in line with the total grocery market with long-term growth levels of less than 1%. Whilst penetration is near to 100%, frequency of purchase is a key challenge with shoppers buying frozen food on average 48 times a year compared with 170+ for chilled and ambient (Source: Kantar Worldpanel, August 2015).
The grocery market is quite stable but there are some significant retailer dynamics taking place. While some retailers are enjoying good growth, others are seeing sales decline and even greater profit challenges, as price has become the key weapon in the retail environment. There is a price war going on that has been started as a result of the hard discounters entering the UK market and targeting market share growth, which they aim to achieve by using their well-established and proven low cost operating models.
But the discounters are not the only retailers that are growing. The premium end of the market is also enjoying growth and seeing strong sales performance. The losers are the larger retail chains who sit squeezed in the middle ground and are seeing sales and profit declines as they struggle to compete with their top and bottom tier competitors.
Channel dynamics are also evolving in the UK market. The convenience channel is now worth £37 billion following an aggregate five
year growth of 28% (Source: IGD). These high street stores are much smaller and have a much more concentrated range of products. These stores focus on immediate consumer purchasing opportunities and offer smaller pack sizes, more fresh products and ranging that changes through the day. One challenge for frozen food, in this channel, is the limited freezer space available, which has to be addressed by developing convenient products in appropriate pack sizes.
Another channel dynamic is the growth of online and click and collect. This is still developing and there continues to be ever increasing options where you can collect your order such as railway stations. Online sales are forecast to be 10% of the total market by 2020 (Source: IGD) and this, along with convenience, is an area of focus for Young’s Seafood.
Shoppers are no longer loyal to one retailer, they will make multiple shopping trips to multiple retailers and the perceived stigma of shopping at the discounters simply does not exist. As shoppers buy more frequently, they are tending towards fresh food for immediate consumption, which is clearly another challenge for frozen food.
So the UK market is facing a perfect storm. There is little or no growth, over capacity in both retail and manufacturing, consumers are behaving differently and there is a price war
The future of retailPete Ward, Chief Executive Officer, Young’s Seafood Limited
The UK grocery market has only shown a small growth of 0.3% in 2015 and growth for the last 10 years has only averaged 0.5%. Effectively the UK grocery market has been flat for years.
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driven by the entry of the hard discounters. In the last year, the top four retailers have collectively invested £3 billion in price cuts and still the discounters are setting the lowest prices. Profits have been reduced in the largest retailers, resulting in these retailers announcing around 10,000 redundancies in total. The industry is having to reset to contend with these new trends and factors and it’s a challenging process.
For the previous 10 years, the retailers have collectively added 5% space per year but sales volumes have only increased by 0.5%. This was clearly unsustainable and the correction is now taking place. In the last year UK retailers have collectively reduced their floor space by over one million square feet. This is the first time that space has been reduced since the 1940’s. This reduction has been achieved by a combination of store closures and the sale of sites. This net reduction of selling space of 1% is at a time when the discounters are adding 500 thousand square feet of space each year.
The impact of this dynamic is also passing down through the supply chain to the manufacturers, where there is also over capacity. The industry reset is being felt throughout the entire supply chain and
there are challenging times ahead for the foreseeable future. On a positive note, consumers are currently enjoying the widest choice and best value they have ever experienced.
Population forecasts predict an aggregate increase in the UK of 6% over the next 10 years and the profile of the population will be increasingly older as people live longer. Consumers are ever more conscious of their health and portion sizes and individuals are not likely to increase their food consumption. Waste has become a feature that people now consider far more and should be an opportunity for frozen food. Having had to watch how they spend their disposable incomes coupled with public campaigns around food waste, people are now consuming the same but buying and wasting less. Combining all these factors suggests that we cannot rely on natural growth to solve industry challenges.
Whilst price will be important, it is not the only weapon in the armoury, for those of us engaged in frozen food processing. There are other factors that consumers will consider when making their purchasing decisions, as they search for value rather than simply
the lowest cost option. Innovation, inspiration, health and convenience are all elements of the product proposition that can increase value in the eyes of the consumer.
All of these elements need to be leveraged in order to maximise the opportunity for frozen foods, along with communicating the unique benefits of ‘frozen for freshness’ and the reduced waste that frozen can help to achieve. Of course, we need to ensure that products are available when consumers wish to purchase them so service and availability are a must.
The final element that has grown in the consumer’s hierarchy of choice is trust. Brand loyalty has huge value but trust can so easily be destroyed if the promise is not delivered. I am sure that some companies, when desperate, may be tempted to take short cuts, but history shows that the outcome could be disastrous.
Times ahead will doubtless be challenging but strong businesses with the right principles, that recognise the changes taking place and evolve accordingly, will continue to outperform their competitors. Change is inevitable, we have to be the architects of change and not the victims in order to succeed.
4 The retail future for frozen The future of retail
The future of frozen in foodservice5
Contents:
Where next for foodservice?: Ken McMeikan, CEO Brakes Group
Looking ahead: foodservice 2015–2020: Andrew Selley, CE Bidvest Foodservice
So what's new on the menu?
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Where next for foodservice?
The foodservice market supplying to caterers grew at 3.6% per annum over a similar period and econometric models that we have developed forecast similar growth to continue between now and 2020.
This growth is underpinned by increasing consumer wealth and demographic changes, and has strengthened recently as the UK economy continues to recover. Population growth has continued in the UK and is expected to continue to grow strongly, rising by 2.4 million by 2020. The proportion of women of working age in work is at its highest ever level (over 70%) and the number of single person households has also continued to increase.
Increasing consumer disposable income is driving an increasing propensity to eat out and this combined with the burgeoning increase in new restaurants offering a huge variety of choice is further driving growth in the eating out of home market. With overall spend in the UK up 55% since 2005, tourism is also making a significant contribution to our markets.
Market trends
Within this very positive overall forecast growth there are many trends that the industry should seek to align itself to in order to benefit from this forecast growth.
Firstly, there are a number of overall industry trends worth noting, in particular the delivered wholesale channel is growing faster than cash-and-carry.
Secondly, the fresh sector is growing faster than other temperatures: this latter trend driven by the very fast growth of the many new fresh intensive casual dining chains. This latter trend is of course a particular challenge to the frozen sector’s growth aspirations, and one, which I will return to with some recommendations below.
There are many customer driven trends that the frozen industry should focus on to help drive growth:
● Grab and go: Customers are looking for more on-the-go meals, particularly during the lunch hour. Products needed are those that provide convenience in preparation and presentation, particularly in respect of eating on-the-go, whilst not compromising on nutritional value and taste
● Provenance: Consumers increasingly today want to know where their food was sourced from and appreciate those providers, like Brakes, that source product regionally within the UK. They are also becoming more and more sensitive to the wider context of sustainability efforts
● Ethnic and flavour fusions: Asian and Mexican cuisine have been growing at double-digit rates recently. Operators are looking to keep their menus new and exciting with the addition of global flavours. Bold flavours will grow on menus as ethnic cuisine and street food continue to inspire chefs
The foodservice market in the UK has experienced long-term growth. Over the period from 1985 to 2013 the overall consumer spend on out of home food and drink grew at a compound average rate of 5.6% per annum.
Ken McMeikan, Chief Executive Officer, Brakes Group
5 The future of frozen in foodservice Where next for foodservice?
45
● Fast casual dining: Very fast growth in this segment in particular in smaller and sharing plates. Small portions of strong flavoursome products appeal to customers seeking a great food experience with limited calorie intake
● Cook it slow ‘n’ easy: This style of slow cooking is quickly growing in popularity and a great target for frozen product providers. Slow cooked sous vide products that can be prepared quickly are ideal to help operators cost efficiency in preparation
● The younger consumer: ‘Generation Y’s’ main reason for eating out of home is to enjoy new cuisines. Their focus on seeking out exciting and exotic flavours will drive menu innovation in future.
Industry action can stimulate growth
There is much the industry can do to stimulate faster growth in frozen products, but this needs a significant transformation of new product
development efforts and must be based on a deep understanding of operators’ needs.The first thing I would encourage all industry participants to do is to focus on building your businesses around the foodservice operator’s key challenges.
I offer a few thoughts below as to some of the challenges that the traditional strengths of frozen products should be able to meet in future markets:
● How relevant are your products when measured against current popular menu items? Note the trends mentioned above in global flavours
● Do your products assist the caterer to reproduce consistently high quality meals taking into consideration the limited availability of highly skilled chefs in some parts of the industry?
● Are your products suitable for caterers to use to meet the ever-growing grab and go lifestyle?
As an industry overall there is a need to promote the benefits of frozen food to the end consumer as well as to the caterer. Here the BFFF should take the lead, educating consumers about the nutritional value of frozen food. Given how important food waste is becoming as an environmental issue, this is another customer and consumer benefit that should be promoted with vigour.
In summary then, the market for foodservice is set to grow strongly over the next five years. Frozen has recently grown more slowly than the average of the market but the many strengths of frozen products remain. The need is to ensure there is sufficiently focused innovation to ensure products are immediately relevant to today’s trends.
The industry must build around caterer needs, understand what will help them to solve their specific challenges, recommend effective tailored solutions and deliver great innovative products. Helping caterers to thrive will ensure that the industry thrives also.
5The future of frozen in foodserviceWhere next for foodservice?
Brakes started almost 60 years ago as a dedicated frozen food operator. Today frozen food accounts for around one third of Brakes’ sales. The benefits of frozen products for caterers remain as strong as they were 60 years ago and include the following:
● Simplification of preparation: with the skills of some kitchen staff in short supply the ability to produce consistent high quality meals can be improved with frozen products
● Frozen products enjoy a stability of supply and greater stability of
pricing than fresh equivalents that are susceptible to market movements. With many operators changing menus only twice a year this provides security against margin erosion mid menu cycle
● Frozen products can be held in volume in freezers for longer periods, enabling the operator to react to sudden changes in demand
● Controlling costs by use of known portion sizes is essential for caterers to control their margins, and this portion control is made much easier though the use of frozen products
● Food waste reduction: controlling portion size and elimination of preparation steps can of course contribute materially to reducing the amount of food waste going to landfill
● New product innovation: the use of imaginative ingredients and manufacturing techniques that are not always available to all kitchens allows operators to offer an extended menu that meets consumer needs for a broader more adventurous offering.
BENEFITS OF FROZEN
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I see growth over the next five years being primarily driven by market growth, as customer demand will be balanced between convenience and the cost to store product. Outlet growth was predicted at 1% in 2015 and a 3% growth in eating out spend in 2015 versus 2014, has been driven by consumers eating out more often.
Whilst frozen food can obviously reduce an outlet’s number of deliveries and help reduce waste, freezers can be costly to run and take up valuable back-of-house space which could otherwise be utilised for serving more consumers. So we are flexing our own infrastructure to help customers manage their storage more effectively.
Quality perception
Improved perception of quality will be a secondary driver behind growth in frozen. The economic downturn of 2007 saw customers in both retail and foodservice turn to frozen as a low cost solution, offering ready-made meals that were cheap to buy and easy to cook: sales grew by 5% in retail in 2007–2008 and by 2.4% in foodservice in 2006–2009.
Following this, however, the horsemeat scandal in 2013 reduced consumer confidence, resulting in slumped sales across frozen meat and ready meals in particular, as stakeholders across the food industry questioned the origin
and quality of ready-made products, although demand for vegetarian foods increased dramatically during the period.
In response, the food industry has had to work hard to improve the perception of frozen and I believe there is still more to do. Frozen may simply offer an economic solution in some instances but has many other benefits too and can give customers that choice to suit their needs, whether looking for ready-meals, innovative frozen desserts, or component parts of a meal.
In retail, improved economic confidence could lead to reduced demand for frozen unless the perception of quality improves to a similar level as fresh, whereas in foodservice I think the convenience it offers means it’s here to stay as part of a balanced range.
Improving perception of frozen food is about sharing our forward thinking with customers. In January 2015 we ran an external campaign called ‘Fish ‘n’ Switch’, to help customers understand the benefits of frozen fish. These benefits include increased freshness where the fish is frozen immediately at sea, sealing in nutrients and flavour. We carried out blind taste tests among customers, where frozen fish was praised for its excellent texture, taste and flavours and participants couldn’t always tell it apart from fresh fish.
Looking ahead: foodservice 2015–2020Andrew Selley, Chief Executive, Bidvest Foodservice
At 34% of our total range, frozen food is an important part of offering our customers the right mix of products.
5 The future of frozen in foodservice Looking ahead foodservice 2015–2020
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5The future of frozen in foodserviceLooking ahead foodservice 2015–2020
Product focus
The rise in specialist diets such as gluten-free has been an area of development in frozen and is something I see growing more. It can be difficult for outlets to offer a solution for everyone; including gluten-free, dairy-free, vegetarian, kosher, or even people with an interest in a particular cuisine, without increasing waste.
By stocking frozen products a caterer can offer wider choice and defrost products when needed, such as frozen gluten-free multigrain wraps, gluten-free pizza bases, ready-made meals including gluten-free macaroni cheese or gluten-free chocolate brownie.
Seasonal demands will drive demand for frozen products too; for example our pigs in blankets, stuffing balls and mince pies are produced year-round and frozen to keep fresh and ensure we can meet the spike in demand in the lead up to Christmas.
In terms of world cuisine, the drive for frozen products links back to the demand for authenticity of product and commercial freezing allows products to be sourced from around the globe and delivered to the consumer in good condition, to meet their demand for broadened tastes. For example,
we stock frozen sliced avocado which provides an easy solution for chefs on a product area where it can be problematic to keep quality and waste under control.
We have also innovated a lot in the area of frozen desserts, our category focus told us that this is an area where customers like to be ‘wowed’ and the demand for handcrafted, high quality desserts is growing; with all day dining on the increase. It can be difficult for outlets to produce fresh desserts and so frozen, pre-portioned products offer the ideal solution, which can be defrosted when required.
Out of home eating in general is a growing market, with 42% of the UK population eating out of home at least weekly. The trend for all day dining mentioned above has also placed extra demand on caterers to serve high quality
food from dawn to dusk across not only breakfast, lunch and dinner but in between meal-occasions too; requiring them to be able to flex their menus to meet demand.
In hotels in particular, room service demand can be very difficult to plan for and the majority of hotels use frozen food for room service menus. They need to provide quality food in a reasonable time, sometimes 24 hours a day, meaning it is often non-kitchen staff who produce the food, making ready prepared frozen meals a great solution.
Frozen food helps us to better manage this demand for all day dining by increasing shelf life versus chilled products and offering a solution that enables outlets to take fewer deliveries and defrost only the food they need, thus reducing wastage and subsequently increasing profits.
I believe that the frozen food market will continue to grow in-line with market growth, demand for specialist products and all-day-dining. As part of a full product offer, frozen gives customers an important element of choice and provides a cost-effective solution for meeting their own consumers’ varied demands.
Out of home eating in general is a growing
market, with 42% of the UK population eating out of home at least weekly.
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In 2015 it was charred meat cut from a barbecued brisket, known as ‘burnt ends’, that was revealed as one of the emerging trends in the UK’s high street restaurants. According to the survey, burnt ends, made with either beef or pork, are now starting to go mainstream, having previously been limited to specialist barbecue restaurants.
US innovation ‘French dip’ sandwiches are also making an appearance on mainstream British menus for the first time. These are made with thinly sliced roast beef on a baguette served with beef juice from the cooking process. The survey also revealed the emergence of meat in sauces, baconnaise and bacon jam being two examples.
With tastes becoming ever-more cosmopolitan, food from the Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America are emerging, including: dukkah, the Egyptian herb and spice condiment, Italian spreadable pork sausage n’duja and the reappearance of spicy noodle soup laksa.
Lobster and crab continue to feature more on UK menus, up 28% and 14% year-on-year respectively, prompted by a slump in wholesale prices, while the nation’s taste for chilli is also still in evidence with hot chilli sauce sriracha seeing a 400% growth year-on-year, while super-hot ghost chillies are being used more frequently to add fire to dishes.
Certain vegetables are also on-trend. Beetroot, with its superfood credentials, has shown a 24% increase in appearance on menus over the winter period (2014/15), with in-season butternut squash, sweet potato and cauliflower also featuring significantly more.
Some of the latest trends for breakfast include hash, either as a hash brown, corned beef hash or cheese and onion hash, while health-conscious Bircher muesli made five times as many menu appearances as it did in 2014. However, while common in coffee shops and sandwich bars, it has yet to reach other outlets.
Competition is pushing the price of some dishes down in many high street pubs, restaurants and hotels, although operators are compensating by introducing a wider variety of side dishes, extra toppings and special sauces to sell to consumers.
Horizons’ ‘Menu Trends’ survey picked up a big increase in the number of new side dishes being added to menus (45% more new side dishes in 2015 compared with 2014) as well as upgrades, extras, toppers and sauces. These add-ons are ways the operator can boost average spend, without appearing more expensive on the main menu.
And burgers, the UK’s most frequently listed menu item, are still ever-popular as they are easy to eat but also easy for operators to update with sauces or toppings.
So what’s new on the menu?Horizons’ Menu Trends survey tracks the menu changes of high street restaurants, pubs, quick service outlets and hotels.
5 The future of frozen in foodservice So what’s new on the menu?
Concluding comments from the chief executive6
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The economy
History has shown us that as the economy performs less well the retail sector grows but the opposite is true in the foodservice market. So the crystal ball as to what might happen in the next five years starts with a look at how the economy might develop. There are signs that the UK came out of a long sustained recession quicker and better than most of its European competitors although a little behind the USA.
As the UK government continues to tackle the debt burden and managing the public finances it is still highly likely that disposable income, for some, will continue to be challenged. However, we have now seen growth returning to more normal levels for the last two years and as public debt is paid down and the Chancellor has a little bit more room for manoeuvre, particularly towards the end of the five years, one would expect the recovery to return to more normal levels.
The consequence for that is the retail sector will return to more normal levels of growth which might be between 1–2% in volume terms whilst the foodservice sector will continue to show good growth and might expect to see volumes grow by 3–4%.
Inflation, bank rate and currency movements
Clearly all of the above are in part dependant on the state of the UK economy and more importantly how it fares with other world markets. The bank rate has been unchanged for the longest time since records began and indeed the prospect of a first increase in bank rate has been wrongly forecasted for almost two years without any real sign of movement. However, at some point the quantitative easing programs of both the USA and the UK need to be unwound, inflation (particularly because of average wage increases) will begin to return to more normal levels and Sterling which has been so strong may suffer as other European member states return to growth.
All of the above suggest that consumers will not see the significant improvement in disposable income that they might have hoped for. Indeed, for some sectors of the population things may well get worse before they get better.
Perversely any increase in the levels of inflation will help the food sector and particularly retailers to return to some top line growth.
It’s my assertion that under those circumstances the retail sector may enjoy 1% or 2% value growth whilst the foodservice sector may perform a little better than that.
When considering what the prospects are for frozen foods in the next five years, I believe the best place to start is by looking at the key drivers for the frozen food market. These drivers can at times operate in different ways for retail and foodservice which I will describe, when appropriate, below.
Concluding comments from the chief executiveBrian Young, Chief Executive, British Frozen Food Federation
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Perception of frozen changing
During the time of the recession, sustainability for consumers was managing to live on reduced disposable income until the recession was over. For business, sustainability was about having enough cash to manage through the long and sustained impact of the recession. Consumers and businesses priority for addressing the food security and sustainability challenge understandably lessened.
As we come out of the recession we are already seeing an increased focus on retailers and foodservice operators sourcing sustainably and increasing concerns about how food security issues will be addressed.
The role of frozen food in both food sustainability and food security is undoubtedly positive, primarily because of the reduction of waste. As these issues become much higher priority and ever more in the public eye the opportunities for frozen will undoubtedly increase.
We are seeing some very significant generic initiatives to make everyone aware of how positive frozen can be in the years to come. The work of Iceland with its Power of Frozen campaign, Birds Eye with iFreeze and Young’s with its sustainable sourcing initiative, will undoubtedly help the frozen food sector gain increased positive consumer perception.
Equally the sector still needs to address the issues of perception amongst consumers who see higher price points for chilled reflecting better quality products rather than the reality of having to bear the cost of waste and inefficiency in the supply chain.
On balance I see the positive arguments for frozen beginning to defeat the negative perception caused by the media’s love of using the word fresh inappropriately. It may well result in the retail sector enjoying 1–2% growth by the end of the five year period whilst with foodservice operators it is all about the food and the dining experience and diners have been and will continue to be unaware and unconcerned that the supply source may be fresh, frozen or ambient.
Summary
In my view the prospects for frozen remain positive for both the retail sector and the foodservice market.
The generic benefits of minimising waste and locking in goodness will become increasingly important as media interest in food security and sustainability becomes heightened.
In the market place online will continue to grow, partly aided by new entrants, whilst the rise of the discounters has not reached its’ optimum level yet, both resulting in positive news for the frozen food sector.
The frozen food industry is using generic messaging much better than before, embracing the need to work more collaboratively and deliver more aspirational products.
I am confident the conclusion of the above will result in positive growth for both the retail and foodservice sector with retail buoyed by all of the positive messages described above whilst the foodservice sector will primarily enjoy the benefits of an improving economy and a return to greater consumer confidence as the public finances become less of a burden.
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— Frozen food online sales in context: Kantar Worldpanel, April 2015
— Trading index online delivery: Kantar Worldpanel, April 2015
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— Shop price inflation annual percentage change: BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index, June 2015
— Retail frozen food statistics November 2010 vs. Dec 2015: Kantar Worldpanel
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— Top line category market share: CGA Strategy, October 2015
— Wholesale foodservice L4L: CGA Foodservice Index, September 2015
— Independent foodservice L4L: CGA Foodservice Index, September 2015
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— Total volume (Kgs) of rice products 2010: MDC Foods
— Growth of frozen prepared foods 2014 and 2015: Kantar Worldpanel, 52 w/e August 16th 2015
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— Grocery growth continues to be polarised: Kantar Worldpanel, 52 weeks to 8th November 2015 vs. previous year
— Annual percentage change in consumer price index: Office of National Statistics, to Sept 2015
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— Grams per household per week: Defra/ONS
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— Frequency of visiting the frozen food aisle: YouGov SixthSense, November 2011
— Frequency of shopping for frozen foods: YouGov SixthSense, November 2011
— Social class Spend %: Kantar Worldpanel
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— Fridge and freezer ownership: YouGov SixthSense, November 2011
— Knowledge of freezer contents: YouGov SixthSense, November 2011
— Ownership of additional fridge and/or freezer: YouGov SixthSense, November 2011
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— Top 10 things we’d do if we had more money: Kantar Worldpanel Usage 52 w/e 1 March vs. 2014 Total in Home/Carried Out
— Percentage of age groups eating out at least weekly: CGA Peach Brand Tracker, Oct 2015
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— Consumer eating behaviour: Horizons ‘Consumer Eating Outlook Survey’, June 2015
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— Net number of pubs closing per week: British Beer and Pub Association
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— Proportion of internet users: Ofcom ‘Communications Market Report’, 2015
— Growth in click and collect: Kantar Worldpanel, 2014 13. 52 w/e 04 Jan 15
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— Less time in the kitchen: Kantar Worldpanel Usage, 52 w/e 1st March 2015 (individual meal occasions millions in home evening)
— Less shared meal occasions: Kantar Worldpanel, Usage in Home Consumption 52 w/e 2nd Jan 2015
— Time spent online daily: Ofcom ‘Communications Market Report’, 2015
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— Consumption for health is becoming more important: Kantar Worldpanel Usage, Rolling 12 weeks data to 1st March 2015
— More health awareness: Kantar Worldpanel Usage, Shape of Britain Q (20,000 HHs) May 2012 vs. 2014
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— Choosing what to eat: Horizons, ‘Consumer Eating Outlook Survey’, June 2015
— Deciding where to eat: Horizons, ‘Consumer Eating Outlook Survey’, June 2015
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— % of avoidable food and drink waste: WRAP, ‘Household Food and Drink Waste in the UK’, 2012
References for graphs and tables
BFFF is the UK’s frozen food trade association, with over 300 members comprising producers, wholesalers, importers, exporters, brokers, retailers and related associate businesses. Membership provides an excellent opportunity for frozen food companies and associates to gain awareness at both commercial and legislative levels and also to understand how BFFF is promoting the industry.
BFFF has a unique and substantial membership covering the entire cold chain from large companies to SMEs, which increases its influence with Government and outside agencies. Membership services are offered impartially to each individual member company.
BFFF (British Frozen Food Federation)Warwick House, Unit 7,Long Bennington Business Park,Main Road, Long Bennington,Newark, Notts,NG23 5JR
www.bfff.co.uk
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