beyond the bubble - labour conference 2015

Ipsos MORI at Labour 2015

Beyond the bubbleWhat lies ahead for the new Labour leader?

Labour 2015HOPE AND EXPERIENCE

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© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

In GE2015, Labour only had a clear lead over the Conservatives among:

18-34sSocial class DEPrivate and social rentersBME voters

Meanwhile Labour actually lost ground to the Conservatives among:

Over 65sABC1s

Labour and LibDems lost 2010 voters across the political spectrum: Conservatives did best at retaining, and had one main threat in UKIP

Base: 943 2010 Conservative voters / 798 2010 Labour voters/488 2010 LibDem voters 10 th April -6th May 2015, weighted to final election result

4ESTIMATED VOTING BEHAVIOUR BY 2010 PAST VOTE

Source: Ipsos MORI General election aggregate analysis

13%

82%

2%2%*%*%5%

2010 Conservative voters 2010 Labour voters

2015 VOTING BEHAVIOUR

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

LIB DEM

SNP

GREEN

OTHER

8%6%

72%

5%5%5%

1%

2010 LibDem voters

20%

7%

35%

24%

2%11%

1%

Jan

00

Jul 0

0

Jan

01

Jul 0

1

Jan

02

Jul 0

2

Jan

03

Jul 0

3

Jan

04

Jul 0

4

Jan

05

Jul 0

5

Jan

06

Jul 0

6

Jan

07

Jul 0

7

Jan

08

Jul 0

8

Jan

09

Jul 0

9

Jan

10

Jul 1

0

Jan

11

Jul 1

1

Jan

12

Jul 1

2

Jan

13

Jul 1

3

Jan

14

Jul 1

4

Jan

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

36%

23%

6%3%

Labour’s lead on the NHS wasn’t enough….6WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE THE CONSERVATIVES,

LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM

Meanwhile, this argument was lost

39%

53%

7%

Will this government’s policies will improve Britain's ECONOMY in the long-term?

Which means Labour has some big challenges ahead….

Austerity has been taken on board by the public – any big policy idea is faced with two immediate questions:

1) How much is this going to cost?2) Where is the money going to come

from?

So while the Conservatives may not be loved (and will face problems of their own – Europe?) the onus is on Labour to regain voters’ trust

“I’ve got a mortgage and two young kids and I feel secure right now…if Labour come in would they rock the boat?”

Labour 2015HOPE?

10

None of the other candidates were a sliver bullet

Jeremy Corbyn

Liz Kendall

Yvette Cooper

Andy Burnham

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

26%

22%

37%

43%

41%

44%

38%

39%

19%

34%

25%

19%

Agree Neither/ dk Disagree

Base: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER

The old style of politics is losing younger generations

All data points represent > 200 responses

11DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?

Source: British Social Attitudes

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war

Baby boomersGen X

Gen Y

1313

At first glance Jeremy Corbyn’s debut on the Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings does not bode wellARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/ LEADER OF XX PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Foot - Nov. '80Kinnock - Oct '83

Major - Dec '90Smith - July '92Blair - Aug '94

Hague - Jun '97Duncan Smith - Sep '01

Howard - Nov '03Cameron - Jan '06

Brown - July '07Miliband - Oct '10Corbyn - Sep '15

2113

2212

1613

1517

1720

2236

2333

3730

3412

1526

3136

4133

% Dissatisfied % SatisfiedNet +%

+2+20+15

+18

+18-10

+9

+16+14

+19-3

c. 1,000 British adults aged 18+ each month

1414

But satisfaction with the new leader is much higher among the youngARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th –22ND September 2015*

Net satisfied +%

1419

4

-4-11

-28

18-24 25-34 35-4445-54 55-64 65+

1515

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Sound judgement

Patriotic

Understands the problems facing Britain

Has a clear vision for Britain

More style than substance

Has got a lot of personality


Out of touch with ordinary people

More honest than most politicians

62%

51%

46%

76%

51%

56%

45%

41%

51%

64%

30%

32%

23%

32%

37%

49%

47%

25%

41%

49%

39%

54%

A different type of politics? Jeremy Corbyn is seen as being more honest than most politicians and less out of touch…..I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS.

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY CORBYN?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th– 22nd September 2015.

CORBYN CAMERON

1616

Divided

Extreme

Out of date

Will promise anything to win votes

Keeps its promises

Has a good team of leaders

Fit to govern

Looks after the interests of people like me


Different to the other parties

Concerned about people in real need in Britain

43%

14%

36%

63%

24%

28%

40%

43%

52%

39%

75%

36%

55%

60%

26%

27%

35%

43%

51%

62%

61%

And leading a party concerned about those in real need – but also as more divided and more extremeI AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES.

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

SEPTEMBER 2015 APRIL 2015

Base: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd September 2015.

The SpeechSOME INSTANT REACTION

18

How did Jeremy do?

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000JEREMY CORBYN ADDRESSES 2015 LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE – TWITTER’S VERDICT

Source: Ipsos MORI live analysis

Ed Miliband – Labour Party Conference 2014

Autumn Statement 2014

EU Debate 2014Total Tweet Volume

24

78

76

22

Boo (%) Cheer (%)

Ed Miliband – Labour Party Conference 2014

Jeremy Corbyn – Labour Party Conference 2015

Base: 41,146 Tweets up until 15:25, Boo/Cheer classification based on 18,779 Tweets

41k

19

Twitter likes Twitter best – preaching to the converted?

JEREMY CORBYN’S SPEECH – TWITTER’S FIRST VERDICT

Source: Ipsos MORI live analysis

CHEER BOO

14:25

14:27

14:29

14:31

14:33

14:35

14:37

14:39

14:41

14:43

14:45

14:47

14:49

14:51

14:53

14:55

14:57

14:59

15:00

15:02

15:04

15:06

15:08

15:10

15:12

15:14

15:16

15:18

15:20

15:22

15:24

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Total tweets: 18,779

Refers to 59% mandate

Opposition to Trade Union

Bill

Labour will oppose

austerity

Opposition to Trident

“In the future social media will be increasingly important”

Maya Angelou quote

Ben Okri quoteLabour

committed to rail

renationalisation

Scotland – “I know you feel we lost our

way. I agree with you”

Speech end – Keir Hardie

quoteEquality of esteem for

mental health

Tota

l tw

eets

Base: 41,146 Tweets up until 15:25, Boo/Cheer classification based on 18,779 Tweets

2020

A group of ex-Labour voters in Croydon liked his authenticity and difference

I liked the way he acknowledged his coverage in the tabloids about the asteroid. You wouldn’t get Cameron making jokes about being a pig shagger.

He is one of us. To get to where he is he had to go through a lot. It’s like a new manager coming into work when they started in the post room -

better that than a graduate trainee.

He’s believable, he’s passionate – it’s the way he was talking about it. He wants to see change.

These are his values, what he stands for – listening to people, letting everyone have their own opinion and debating it.

2121

But in the end, it wasn’t strong enough to change their minds on the issues that matter to them, although still early days

A social Europe? What is that? Is that the EU? A lot of this went over my head. If they want people to vote, then they need to make it clear what they are talking about.

He mentioned everything….he can’t make a difference to everything. He should’ve just picked a few issues

What about immigration? This is an issue that’s happening now – we see it every day in the news – it matters!

22

Reconnecting with Labour’s roots only half the story – lost voters wanted their aspirations spoken to too

22DESIRE FOR CHANGE – A RETURN TO LABOUR’S ‘ROOTS’…

BUT SOME ALSO MENTIONED THE NEED TO MIX WTH ASPIRATIONAL MESSAGES

“They need a strong leader, to refocus on the same sort of pro-business, aspirational views – but with fairness – that got Blair in”

“That’s what Labour used to be for: a fairer distribution of money in the country”

“I was brought up working class…and even stuck by them through the Blair years, but I

could’ve throttled them this time”

Thank youQ&A

beyond the bubble - labour conference 2015

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