"beyond the bubble" - conservative party conference 2015

Ipsos MORI at Conservatives 2015

Beyond the bubbleWhat next for the Conservatives?

Conservatives 2015WHAT HAPPENED?

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

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© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Conservatives won GE2015 with swings among key voter groups:

Over 65sABC1sEast Midlands & South West

But still behind among:

RentersC2DEsYoung womenScotland & London

Jan

00

Jul 0

0

Jan

01

Jul 0

1

Jan

02

Jul 0

2

Jan

03

Jul 0

3

Jan

04

Jul 0

4

Jan

05

Jul 0

5

Jan

06

Jul 0

6

Jan

07

Jul 0

7

Jan

08

Jul 0

8

Jan

09

Jul 0

9

Jan

10

Jul 1

0

Jan

11

Jul 1

1

Jan

12

Jul 1

2

Jan

13

Jul 1

3

Jan

14

Jul 1

4

Jan

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

36%

23%

6%3%

Labour’s lead on the NHS wasn’t enough….5WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE THE CONSERVATIVES,

LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM

This argument was won

39%

53%

7%

Will this government’s policies will improve Britain's ECONOMY in the long-term?

Conservatives 2015WHAT NEXT?

WHAT ABOUT THE NEW GUY?

The old style of politics is losing younger generations

All data points represent > 200 responses

8DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?

Source: British Social Attitudes

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war

Baby boomersGen X

Gen Y

9

Jeremy Corbyn’s debut on the Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings does not bode wellARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/ LEADER OF XX PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Foot - Nov. '80Kinnock - Oct '83

Major - Dec '90Smith - July '92Blair - Aug '94

Hague - Jun '97Duncan Smith - Sep '01

Howard - Nov '03Cameron - Jan '06

Brown - July '07Miliband - Oct '10Corbyn - Sep '15

2113

2212

1613

1517

1720

2236

2333

3730

3412

1526

3136

4133

% Dissatisfied % SatisfiedNet +%

+2+20+15

+18

+18-10

+9

+16+14

+19-3

c. 1,000 British adults aged 18+ each month

10

…although satisfaction with the new leader is higher among the young ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th –22ND September 2015*

Net satisfied +%

1419

4

-4-11

-28

18-24 25-34 35-4445-54 55-64 65+

11

Capable leader

Good in a crisis

Sound judgement

Patriotic

Understands the problems facing Britain

Has a clear vision for Britain

More style than substance

Has got a lot of personality


Out of touch with ordinary people

More honest than most politicians

62%

51%

46%

76%

51%

56%

45%

41%

51%

64%

30%

32%

23%

32%

37%

49%

47%

25%

41%

49%

39%

54%

A different type of politics? Jeremy Corbyn is seen as being more honest than most politicians and less out of touch…..I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS.

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY CORBYN?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th– 22nd September 2015.

CORBYN CAMERON

12

Divided

Extreme

Out of date

Will promise anything to win votes

Keeps its promises

Has a good team of leaders

Fit to govern

Looks after the interests of people like me


Different to the other parties

Concerned about people in real need in Britain

43%

14%

36%

63%

24%

28%

40%

43%

52%

39%

75%

36%

55%

60%

26%

27%

35%

43%

51%

62%

61%

And leading a party concerned about those in real need – but also as more divided and more extremeI AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES.

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY?


SEPTEMBER 2015 APRIL 2015

Base: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd September 2015.

But while Jeremy Corbyn is seen as more left-wing than Ed Miliband, perceptions of Cameron have drifted right-ward too

13HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE VIEWS OF DAVID CAMERON?

LEFT WING

LEFT OF CENTRE

CENTRE

RIGHT OF CENTRE

RIGHT WING

DON’T KNOWOctober 2010

October 2013

September 2015

6%

5%

4%

5%

4%

4%

14%

13%

13%

28%

33%

31%

21%

24%

30%

26%

21%

18%

Base: 1,255British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

61%

57%

49%


THE ECONOMY AND AUSTERITY

45%

38%

17%

Reaction to the Summer Budget was largely positive

15AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….?

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Good thing

Bad thing

46%

44%

10%Don’t know

...for the country

Good thing

Bad thing

...for you personally

Base: c1,000 British adults aged 18+

16

And George Osborne’s ratings best for a Conservative since Nigel LawsonARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY XXX IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


% saying ‘satisfied’

Mar-7

6

Apr-7

8

Mar-8

2

Mar-8

5

Mar-8

7

Mar-8

9

Mar-9

1

Mar-9

3

Dec-9

4

Dec-9

5

Dec-9

6

Feb-9

8

Mar-9

9

Mar-0

0

Sep-0

0

Mar-0

1

Apr-0

3

Nov-0

5

Dec-0

6

Mar-0

8

Jun-

10

Dec-1

1

Mar-1

3

Mar-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

66%

44%

67%

52%

45% 45%

34%

39%

44%42%

37%39%

36%37%

18%

31%

17%

24%28%

38%34%

52%

44%

56%

45%42%

48%52%

34%

41%

55%57%

48%46%

49%47%

42%

32%28%

36%40%

36%38%

28%27%

47%43%44%

Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne

17

But concern about public services and austerity

Base: 1,025 British adults 18+, 8th -11th March 2015

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?


October 2013 March 2015

59%

35%

6%

60%

33%

7%

AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW

IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE BRITAIN’S PUBLIC SERVICES


IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE

Cameron becomes PM

Public concern around immigration is at the highest level we’ve ever recorded

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home* Up until Sept 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Border controls relaxed for “A8” EU Countries (Poland, etc.)

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Border controls relaxed for Romanians and Bulgarians

Highest concern ever recorded (56%)

20A

pr 0

5Ju

n 05

Aug

05

Oct

05

Dec

05

Feb

06A

pr 0

6Ju

n 06

Aug

06

Oct

06

Dec

06

Feb

07A

pr 0

7Ju

n 07

Aug

07

Oct

07

Dec

07

Feb

08A

pr 0

8Ju

n 08

Aug

08

Oct

08

Dec

08

Feb

09A

pr 0

9Ju

n 09

Aug

09

Oct

09

Dec

09

Feb

10A

pr 1

0Ju

n 10

Aug

10

Oct

10

Dec

10

Feb

11A

pr 1

1Ju

n 11

Aug

11

Oct

11

Dec

11

Feb

12A

pr 1

2Ju

n 12

Aug

12

Oct

12

Dec

12

Feb

13A

pr 1

3Ju

n 13

Aug

13

Oct

13

Dec

13

Feb

14A

pr 1

4Ju

n 14

Aug

14

Oct

14

Dec

14

Feb

15A

pr 1

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

21%17%

6%

20%

But faith in the Conservatives’ immigration policies has halved since 2008WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON ASYLUM/IMMIGRATION THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM

21

The trend before the summer was towards Britain’s membership of the EU – will this last?IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?

Jun-

77

Jun-

79

Jun-

81

Jun-

83

Jun-

85

Jun-

87

Jun-

89

Jun-

91

Jun-

93

Jun-

95

Jun-

97

Jun-

99

Jun-

01

Jun-

03

Jun-

05

Jun-

07

Jun-

09

Jun-

11

Jun-

13

Jun-

15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

26%

60% 63%52% 49%

53% 51%

41%

61%65%

29% 27%36% 35% 32%

39%

49%

27%

Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

STAY IN GET OUT

22

More Britons want a scaled-back relationship with the EU rather than leaving altogetherWHICH OF THE OPTIONS BEST DESCRIBES YOUR OWN PREFERENCE FOR BRITAIN'S FUTURE ROLE IN EUROPE?

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Series1 13%17%

20%23%

19%

33%34%

30%28%28%

31%29%

32%29%

24%

14%14%

13%13%

24%

Britain leaving the European Union altogether

Britain’s relationship with Europe remaining broadly the same as at present

Britain returning to being part on economic community, without political links

Britain and other member states of the European Union moving towards closer political and economic integration

Apr ‘96Nov ‘12May ‘14Oct ‘14Jun ‘15




23

6%

32%

37%

20%

4%

Though Britons are unsure whether Cameron will be able to deliver a good deal Britain with the EU in any casePLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?

VERY CONFIDENT

FAIRLY CONFIDENT

NOT VERY CONFIDENT

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT

NO OPINION

Source: Ipsos MORI

June 2015

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015

Conservatives 2015AND WHAT ABOUT YOUR POTENTIAL NEXT LEADER?

25

Who would Britons like to see lead the Conservative Party?AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 395 Conservative supporters 19th – 22nd September 2015*Red herring

Don't know

None of these

Strewart Lewis

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

George Osborne

Theresa May

Boris Johnson

8%

25%

3%

4%

15%

17%

27%

*

September 2015

BRITISH ADULTS 18+

26

But Conservative voters prefer GeorgeAS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: British adults 18+, 395 Conservative supporters, 408 Labour, 103 LibDem, 70 UKIP 19th – 22nd September 2015

None of these

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

George Osborne

Theresa May

Boris Johnson

16%

2%

10%

18%

43%

28%

1%

8%

6%

28%

21%

42%

2%

4%

9%

17%

18%

7%

4%

3%

32%

18%

29%

*

September 2015

CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS LABOUR SUPPORTERSLIBERAL DEMOCRAT SUPPORTERS UKIP SUPPORTERS

Thank youQ&A

"beyond the bubble" - conservative party conference 2015

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