beyond the bubble: conservative party conference 2014
DESCRIPTION
Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Conservative Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index. On the panel were journalist Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph’s Peter Oborne, Chloe Smith MP and think tank Reform’s Andrew Haldenby. Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.TRANSCRIPT
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI
The battle to 2015
or
“The war of the weak”
Joe Murphy, Evening Standard
1) Weaknesses in the
vote
Even in 2010, nine in ten voted for
one of the three main parties – now it’s
just three in four
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec-0
3
Ma
r-04
Ju
n-0
4
Sep
-04
Dec-0
4
Ma
r-05
Ju
n-0
5
Sep
-05
Dec-0
5
Ma
r-06
Ju
n-0
6
Sep
-06
Dec-0
6
Ma
r-07
Ju
n-0
7
Sep
-07
Dec-0
7
Ma
r-08
Ju
n-0
8
Sep
-08
Dec-0
8
Ma
r-09
Ju
n-0
9
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Sep
-10
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Sep
-11
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Sep
-12
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Sep
-13
Dec-1
3
Ma
r-14
Ju
n-1
4
Sep
-14
33%
7%
34%
15%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Watch the share – not the lead!
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Lab 2012
average: 41% Lab 2014
average: 35%
7
70%
13%
3%
2% 12%
2014 Labour vote
2010 Labour
2010 LibDem
2010 Con
2010 UKIP
2010 Other
2010 DNV/too young/etc
Labour relying on LibDem switchers, but hardly
any Tories
Base: 1,300 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8 S
hare
of
go
vern
ing
part
y
Base: c. 500-1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from new
government taking power
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone. Data collected prior to Nov 2002 is based on all expressing an intention to vote, data from Nov 1992 is based on all certain to vote
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
In the past we have seen an electoral cycle effect….
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1987 GE
Conservatives: 1979-1997
(6 mth moving average)
1983 GE 1992 GE
9
Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 17th September 2014
Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus,
ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus
Reid, Ashcroft
Co
nserv
ati
ve v
ote
sh
are
EOI % +/-
But so far the Conservative vote share isn’t moving much
either
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”
“Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over
the next twelve months?”
-30
-15
0
15
30
232425262728293031323334353637
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
+3
32%
-3
Proximity
to 32%
Number of
polls % of polls
+/-3ppt 599/655 91%
+/-2ppt 517/655 79%
+/-1ppt 344/655 53%
10 The system makes it harder for you
In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority
of 64 seats
In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats
short of a majority
If the Conservatives and Labour each had 33.4% of the vote,
Labour would win 307 seats and the Conservatives would win
254 seats
Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of 2.8 percentage
points, the Conservatives need an 11.1 point lead
11 But that’s not the only reason –support
concentrated in the South
38%
23%
16%
16%
7%
12 The north is very red
28%
45%
10%
13% 4%
13 Not a “women problem”, but a young women problem
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base Aggregated voting intention of 3,626 British adults 18+ Jan- July 2014
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*
*All certain to vote
21
27
36
27 30
36
45 43
34 32
34 31
11 11 11 11 10 8
5 7
12 14 14
18
18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP
Men Women
14
12%
12%
34%
23%
4%
16%
2014 UKIP vote
2010 Labour
2010 LibDem
2010 Con
2010 UKIP
2010 Other
2010 DNV/too young/etc
And the rise of UKIP is making it even harder
Base: 441 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
15 UKIP is touching a nerve – will people still see it
as a wasted vote?
On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
26%
36%
8%
27%
14%
6%
6%
6%
8%
10%
20%
12%
26%
21%
63%
4%
3%
3%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
34% 51%
14% 75%
UKIP is highlighting
important issues
which other parties
aren't taking
seriously enough
A vote for UKIP
in a General
election is a
wasted vote
I would like my local
MP to leave his/her
party and join UKIP
50% 41%
53% 36%
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
Down from 57% in May
2) No party owns all the
issues
17 The dilemma: how to cover all the bases?
Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in
helping you decide which party to vote for?*
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5%
5%
6%
6%
6%
8%
10%
11%
12%
13%
23%
29%
30%
31%
Housing
Crime and ASB/ law and order
Pensions
Defence
Care for older/disabled
Taxation
Unemployment
Europe/ EU
Foreign policy/affairs
Benefits
Education/ schools
Healthcare/ NHS
Asylum and immigration
Economy
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
*Showing only answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results
18 You are increasing your lead on the economy
Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ja
n-0
0
Ma
y-0
0
Sep
-00
Ja
n-0
1
Ma
y-0
1
Sep
-01
Ja
n-0
2
Ma
y-0
2
Sep
-02
Ja
n-0
3
Ma
y-0
3
Sep
-03
Ja
n-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Sep
-04
Ja
n-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Sep
-05
Ja
n-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Sep
-06
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Sep
-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Sep
-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Sep
-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Sep
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Sep
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Sep
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Sep
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Sep
-14
Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP
20%
3%
45%
2%
55% among those who think it’s important
19 UKIP is making the running on immigration
Which party do you think has the best policies on asylum/ immigration the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Ja
n-0
3
Ma
y-0
3
Sep
-03
Ja
n-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Sep
-04
Ja
n-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Sep
-05
Ja
n-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Sep
-06
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Sep
-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Sep
-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Sep
-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Sep
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Sep
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Sep
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Sep
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Sep
-14
Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP
18%
9%
19% 20%
40% among those who think it’s important
20 While the NHS is Labour’s strongest card
Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats
or some other party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Ja
n-0
0
Ma
y-0
0
Sep
-00
Ja
n-0
1
Ma
y-0
1
Sep
-01
Ja
n-0
2
Ma
y-0
2
Sep
-02
Ja
n-0
3
Ma
y-0
3
Sep
-03
Ja
n-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Sep
-04
Ja
n-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Sep
-05
Ja
n-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Sep
-06
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Sep
-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Sep
-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Sep
-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Sep
-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Sep
-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Sep
-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Sep
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Sep
-14
Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP
39%
4%
21%
1%
45% among those who think it’s important
21 And people in marginals …..
Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Economy/Economic situation
Race/Immigration
Unemployment
NHS/Hospitals
Crime/Law & order
Education/Schools
Pensions/Benefits
Inflation/Prices
Poverty/Inequality
Housing
Defence/Foreign
Safe Lab seats
Marginal seats
Safe Con seats
22 And people in marginals sit in the middle on these
issues too Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Economy/Economic situation
Race/Immigration
Unemployment
NHS/Hospitals
Crime/Law & order
Education/Schools
Pensions/Benefits
Inflation/Prices
Poverty/Inequality
Housing
Defence/Foreign
Safe Lab seats
Marginal seats
Safe Con seats
3) Two parties, two image
problems
24
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour the most liked party, but Cameron most
liked leader
Miliband & the
Labour Party
Cameron & the
Conservative Party
% %
Total like him 31 48
Total do not like
him 63 49
Total like his party 50 42
Total do not like
his party 44 55
Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron/ Ed Miliband and the Conservative/
Labour party?
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
25
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low...
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
26 While Cameron still has the lead on key Prime
Ministerial qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
67%
55%
55%
53%
43%
48%
43%
39%
46%
30%
43%
22%
36%
53%
32%
20%
55%
20%
26%
17%
26%
42%
45%
26%
39%
31%
58%
19%
24%
39%
52%
67%
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Miliband Cameron Clegg
Has got a lot of personality
Has a clear vision for Britain
Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th-9th September 2014
Split sample for Nick Clegg (496) and Nigel Farage (514)
27 But the party still seen as out of touch – and
divided
43%
35%
23%
61%
51%
40%
48%
46%
23%
52%
48%
27%
47%
41%
31%
48%
43%
14%
39%
32%
13%
56%
18%
20%
51%
39%
12%
38%
28%
24%
36%
16%
24%
39%
80%
64%
Looks after interests of people like me
Out of date
Fit to govern
Good team of leaders
Understands problems facing Britain
Different to other parties
Labour Conservative LibDem
Extreme
Keeps its promises
UKIP
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Divided
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014. Split sample question for UKIP (514) and the Liberal Democrats (496)
So what does that tell
us for 2015?
29 The most unpredictable election in living memory?
What are the precedents?
– The last time a government increased its vote share after
more than two years in office - 1955
– (It has only happened twice since 1900)
– The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall
majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931
– Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832
– In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a
narrow poll lead one year out, the other party won.
30 Who do you want to be?
Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead
in ratings
2015 ? Opposition Government
31 Only two previous occasions when opposition
has led in vote but PM been ahead in ratings
Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead
in ratings
2015 ? Opposition Government
2010 None Opposition Opposition
2005 Government Government Opposition
2001 Government Government Opposition
1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition
1987 Government Opposition Opposition
1983 Government Government Government
32 Who do you want to be – Conservatives 1992 or
Labour 1979?
Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead
in ratings
2015 ? Opposition Government
2010 None Opposition Opposition
2005 Government Government Opposition
2001 Government Government Opposition
1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition
1992 Government Opposition Government
1987 Government Opposition Opposition
1983 Government Government Government
1979 Opposition Opposition Government