beyond the bubble: conservative party conference 2014

33
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI

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Ipsos MORI hosted the successful fringe event Beyond the Bubble at the 2014 Conservative Party conference. The event explored how the political parties are doing in our polls, using our long-term trend data, as well as new findings from our monthly Political Monitor and Issues Index. On the panel were journalist Benedict Brogan, The Telegraph’s Peter Oborne, Chloe Smith MP and think tank Reform’s Andrew Haldenby. Head of Political Research Gideon Skinner presented the Ipsos MORI view. Ben Page chaired the event.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI

Page 2: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

The battle to 2015

Page 3: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

or

“The war of the weak”

Joe Murphy, Evening Standard

Page 4: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

1) Weaknesses in the

vote

Page 5: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

Even in 2010, nine in ten voted for

one of the three main parties – now it’s

just three in four

Page 6: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

6

0

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30

40

50

Dec-0

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Ma

r-04

Ju

n-0

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Sep

-04

Dec-0

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r-05

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Sep

-05

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-06

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-08

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-09

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c-0

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r-10

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n-1

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Sep

-10

Dec-1

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-11

Dec-1

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-12

Dec-1

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r-13

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n-1

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Sep

-13

Dec-1

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r-14

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n-1

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Sep

-14

33%

7%

34%

15%

2005 General Election

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

2010 General Election

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Watch the share – not the lead!

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Lab 2012

average: 41% Lab 2014

average: 35%

Page 7: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

7

70%

13%

3%

2% 12%

2014 Labour vote

2010 Labour

2010 LibDem

2010 Con

2010 UKIP

2010 Other

2010 DNV/too young/etc

Labour relying on LibDem switchers, but hardly

any Tories

Base: 1,300 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Page 8: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

8 S

hare

of

go

vern

ing

part

y

Base: c. 500-1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from new

government taking power

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone. Data collected prior to Nov 2002 is based on all expressing an intention to vote, data from Nov 1992 is based on all certain to vote

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

In the past we have seen an electoral cycle effect….

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1987 GE

Conservatives: 1979-1997

(6 mth moving average)

1983 GE 1992 GE

Page 9: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

9

Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 17th September 2014

Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus,

ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus

Reid, Ashcroft

Co

nserv

ati

ve v

ote

sh

are

EOI % +/-

But so far the Conservative vote share isn’t moving much

either

“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”

“Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over

the next twelve months?”

-30

-15

0

15

30

232425262728293031323334353637

Mar-1

3

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

+3

32%

-3

Proximity

to 32%

Number of

polls % of polls

+/-3ppt 599/655 91%

+/-2ppt 517/655 79%

+/-1ppt 344/655 53%

Page 10: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

10 The system makes it harder for you

In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority

of 64 seats

In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats

short of a majority

If the Conservatives and Labour each had 33.4% of the vote,

Labour would win 307 seats and the Conservatives would win

254 seats

Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of 2.8 percentage

points, the Conservatives need an 11.1 point lead

Page 11: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

11 But that’s not the only reason –support

concentrated in the South

38%

23%

16%

16%

7%

Page 12: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

12 The north is very red

28%

45%

10%

13% 4%

Page 13: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

13 Not a “women problem”, but a young women problem

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base Aggregated voting intention of 3,626 British adults 18+ Jan- July 2014

“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*

*All certain to vote

21

27

36

27 30

36

45 43

34 32

34 31

11 11 11 11 10 8

5 7

12 14 14

18

18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+

Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP

Men Women

Page 14: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

14

12%

12%

34%

23%

4%

16%

2014 UKIP vote

2010 Labour

2010 LibDem

2010 Con

2010 UKIP

2010 Other

2010 DNV/too young/etc

And the rise of UKIP is making it even harder

Base: 441 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Page 15: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

15 UKIP is touching a nerve – will people still see it

as a wasted vote?

On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

26%

36%

8%

27%

14%

6%

6%

6%

8%

10%

20%

12%

26%

21%

63%

4%

3%

3%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

34% 51%

14% 75%

UKIP is highlighting

important issues

which other parties

aren't taking

seriously enough

A vote for UKIP

in a General

election is a

wasted vote

I would like my local

MP to leave his/her

party and join UKIP

50% 41%

53% 36%

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

Down from 57% in May

Page 16: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

2) No party owns all the

issues

Page 17: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

17 The dilemma: how to cover all the bases?

Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in

helping you decide which party to vote for?*

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5%

5%

6%

6%

6%

8%

10%

11%

12%

13%

23%

29%

30%

31%

Housing

Crime and ASB/ law and order

Pensions

Defence

Care for older/disabled

Taxation

Unemployment

Europe/ EU

Foreign policy/affairs

Benefits

Education/ schools

Healthcare/ NHS

Asylum and immigration

Economy

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

*Showing only answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results

Page 18: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

18 You are increasing your lead on the economy

Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ja

n-0

0

Ma

y-0

0

Sep

-00

Ja

n-0

1

Ma

y-0

1

Sep

-01

Ja

n-0

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Ma

y-0

2

Sep

-02

Ja

n-0

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Ma

y-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

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n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

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Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

20%

3%

45%

2%

55% among those who think it’s important

Page 19: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

19 UKIP is making the running on immigration

Which party do you think has the best policies on asylum/ immigration the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ja

n-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

18%

9%

19% 20%

40% among those who think it’s important

Page 20: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

20 While the NHS is Labour’s strongest card

Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats

or some other party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ja

n-0

0

Ma

y-0

0

Sep

-00

Ja

n-0

1

Ma

y-0

1

Sep

-01

Ja

n-0

2

Ma

y-0

2

Sep

-02

Ja

n-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

39%

4%

21%

1%

45% among those who think it’s important

Page 21: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

21 And people in marginals …..

Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?

Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Economy/Economic situation

Race/Immigration

Unemployment

NHS/Hospitals

Crime/Law & order

Education/Schools

Pensions/Benefits

Inflation/Prices

Poverty/Inequality

Housing

Defence/Foreign

Safe Lab seats

Marginal seats

Safe Con seats

Page 22: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

22 And people in marginals sit in the middle on these

issues too Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?

Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Economy/Economic situation

Race/Immigration

Unemployment

NHS/Hospitals

Crime/Law & order

Education/Schools

Pensions/Benefits

Inflation/Prices

Poverty/Inequality

Housing

Defence/Foreign

Safe Lab seats

Marginal seats

Safe Con seats

Page 23: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

3) Two parties, two image

problems

Page 24: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

24

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour the most liked party, but Cameron most

liked leader

Miliband & the

Labour Party

Cameron & the

Conservative Party

% %

Total like him 31 48

Total do not like

him 63 49

Total like his party 50 42

Total do not like

his party 44 55

Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron/ Ed Miliband and the Conservative/

Labour party?

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

Page 25: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

25

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low...

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)

Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

Page 26: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

26 While Cameron still has the lead on key Prime

Ministerial qualities

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

67%

55%

55%

53%

43%

48%

43%

39%

46%

30%

43%

22%

36%

53%

32%

20%

55%

20%

26%

17%

26%

42%

45%

26%

39%

31%

58%

19%

24%

39%

52%

67%

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Miliband Cameron Clegg

Has got a lot of personality

Has a clear vision for Britain

Farage

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th-9th September 2014

Split sample for Nick Clegg (496) and Nigel Farage (514)

Page 27: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

27 But the party still seen as out of touch – and

divided

43%

35%

23%

61%

51%

40%

48%

46%

23%

52%

48%

27%

47%

41%

31%

48%

43%

14%

39%

32%

13%

56%

18%

20%

51%

39%

12%

38%

28%

24%

36%

16%

24%

39%

80%

64%

Looks after interests of people like me

Out of date

Fit to govern

Good team of leaders

Understands problems facing Britain

Different to other parties

Labour Conservative LibDem

Extreme

Keeps its promises

UKIP

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Divided

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014. Split sample question for UKIP (514) and the Liberal Democrats (496)

Page 28: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

So what does that tell

us for 2015?

Page 29: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

29 The most unpredictable election in living memory?

What are the precedents?

– The last time a government increased its vote share after

more than two years in office - 1955

– (It has only happened twice since 1900)

– The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall

majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931

– Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832

– In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a

narrow poll lead one year out, the other party won.

Page 30: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

30 Who do you want to be?

Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead

in ratings

2015 ? Opposition Government

Page 31: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

31 Only two previous occasions when opposition

has led in vote but PM been ahead in ratings

Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead

in ratings

2015 ? Opposition Government

2010 None Opposition Opposition

2005 Government Government Opposition

2001 Government Government Opposition

1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition

1987 Government Opposition Opposition

1983 Government Government Government

Page 32: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

32 Who do you want to be – Conservatives 1992 or

Labour 1979?

Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead

in ratings

2015 ? Opposition Government

2010 None Opposition Opposition

2005 Government Government Opposition

2001 Government Government Opposition

1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition

1992 Government Opposition Government

1987 Government Opposition Opposition

1983 Government Government Government

1979 Opposition Opposition Government

Page 33: Beyond the Bubble: Conservative Party Conference 2014

33

Thank you

[email protected] | +4400 May 2014

© Ipsos MORI

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