beyond budgeting: driver-based forecasting and performance management
TRANSCRIPT
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Dynamic Growth Management&
Driver-based Forecasting
1 November 2011
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The Driver-based Philosophy
Rolling forecasts - evidence-based and provable
One Real-time group forecasting database
Management collaboration towards one common strategy
What do we want to achieve?
Manage Future Growth – control future outcomes
Plot Sales Trajectory
Measure Drivers/Limiters
Dynamic Performance Management
Track Competition and Competitiveness
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Rolling Forecast Dynamics
£53,249$86,578€72,894$98,617
Timeline
Today ►FØ F/cast
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SALES VALUE CHAIN
OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT
Sales Value Chain
SALE
5%30%
55%75% 95%
ULTIMATE CONVERSION
RATE
ATTRITION
SALES PIPELINE
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Forecasting Sales Trajectory
Zero Subjectivity 100% Dependable Prospects Matched to Risk Appetite Accurately Sensitised
X > Filter Sales Tail by
Conv. Rate
Sensitise by Actual
Conv. Rate
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Meeting ForecastsTARGET
100%
150%50%
DRIVERSLIMITERS
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Drivers / Limiters Service Levels Lifecycle/Obsolescence Competitor Activity Replenishment Capability Causal Analysis Impact & Trends
Process Performance Delinquency Value of Sales Inputs Competitive Advantage Causal Analysis Impact & Trends
New Business Activity Scenario Data Source Analytics
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Process Performance
Landmark Process
Lead Attrition
SUCCESSSALES LEADS
Competitor Analysis Causal Analysis
Success rates Customer Service level
Activity/Throughput Process Duration
WIN
FAIL
EXCEPTIONAL SALES [e.g. Promotions, Intra-Group]
Ultimate Conversion rates Impact & Trends
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G-Index
12 monthsToday
Actual sales
Actual wins
Actual churn
Actual conversion time
Actual sales pipeline
Actual conversion rate
Actual spot FX rate
Actual impact previous sales
Actual impact previous churn
Actual conversion performance
Future pipeline potential
12 months
next 12 months forecast previous 12 months actual
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Lean Enterprise Cornerstones
PlatformCloud or IntranetVendor-side InvestmentVendor-side InfrastructureAdvanced Security
MethodologyNon-prescriptiveSkinny ‘Input’ vs. ‘FAT’ outputLocalisationInternationalisation
DesignWay-you-Work ValuesAdvanced web optimisationUser CollaborationIntuitive
FunctionInterface to personal systemsData Portal to personal filesData Exchange to core appsDocument sharing
BUSINESS FIT FUNCTIONAL FIT HIGH ROI LOW RISK LOW MAINTENANCE HIGH ADOPTION
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Taking the ‘if’ out of ‘What if?’