beyond 2020

Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved

Beyond>2020

Selected scenarios for

the business context beyond 2020


Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved

Beyond>2020

The end of ‘products’ & ‘manufacturing’

25% of retail products are manufactured at the point of use. Raw materials, logistics and retail

industries in turmoil.

For those cases where physical products are still needed they will be ‘manufactured’

where and when needed on desktop ‘3D printers’. Want a new pair of designer shoes?

Look it up at JimmyChoo.com and print a pair now. Want a mobile phone? Just click and

print.

The new retail therapy culture is “I want it now and I want it cheap” and has spawned a

merger of Wal-Mart and Amazon.com. ‘


Beyond>2020

The end of ‘products’ & ‘manufacturing’

Expensive ‘Products’ have become

free ‘Services’. Answering mc > Mobile phone

Walkman/iPod > iPhone/everywhere Internet/Comms > Basic Human Right Washing machines > SM fabrics + US

We got used to this at the end of the 20th Century as physical answering machines

were replaced by free ‘answering services’ on mobile phones. No amount of

benchmarking would have identified Aiwa’s new competitors!

So Apple’s Pod became a service on the iPhone and every other device. Personal

communications have become a basic human right (the UN, June 2010) and

bandwidth a total commodity. No one buys a washing machine anymore as each

wardrobe contains a tiny ultrasound device that shakes the dirt and grime out of your

‘shape memory’ clothes that remember the shape they were when new.


Beyond>2020

Retail & professional services reinvented 75% of retail is online. ‘Shopping’ has become an entertainment for the elite. Most business processes are audited in

real time.

Ubiquitous connectivity has brought real competition, and on-site 3D printing, plus

superb logistics (again driven by competition) have turned malls into high-end

entertainment palaces or derelict dumps.

Professional services companies are grappling to find new annuity revenue sources.

But clients love the end of the “tyranny of the annual audit.”


Beyond>2020

Business on digital steroids ‘Everything’ that can be automated is. 90% of business processes are online

and audited in real-time. Customer service outsourced

to those who know it best! Customers.

Almost everything is measured, counted and audited in real time, making business

reporting a non-event. And putting the customer in charge of their own service,

which Amazon perfected 20 years ago, has become the only way. Customers –

well, they just love it! The old adage “The customer is King” has finally come true.


Beyond>2020

100 is the new 60 Bio and nanotech have revolutionised health

care and prevention. Those who will live to 200

have already been born.

Now there is talk of life beyond 500. Population growth is limited to the ‘poor’

countries - in rich countries negative growth is complemented by carefully

‘managed immigration’. But the big question is – will you die before you run out of

money? There are selective incentives for euthanasia.


Beyond>2020

The third youth revolution Age & experience no longer equals power. Youngsters commit the largest (electronic)

crimes, are fighting virtual wars and managing fractal investment portfolios.

Most financial management is now based on chaos theory and fractal

algorithms – and the kids just ‘get it’!

Hiring the best is no longer a viable strategy. Corporations compete

aggressively to have the ‘coolest workplace’, and to attract the ‘brightest

young things’.

It is recognised that people are no longer a company’s most important asset –

relationships are. The under 30s can handle twenty times the number of

relationships that their seniors can.


Beyond>2020

Everyone is connected – and it’s a basic human right

‘Everyone’ is connected, for ‘free’! The idea of the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ is

out-dated. In a world of ‘digital plenty’, there are only

the ‘haves’ and the ‘want-nots’!

Top-quality digital education is available to virtually anyone who wants it – and

connectivity, through a slew of cool mobile devices (including a few implanted

versions) has become effectively free. Most governments provide broadband access

as a basic service.

There’s no reason not to be part of this hyper-connected world – unless you

deliberately choose to opt out.


Beyond>2020

Nothing is forgotten – everything can be ‘googled’

Every detail of personal and work life is recorded and stored in ‘The Cloud’.

A decade ago, cloud computing was an emerging technology and the battleground of

giants like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google. Today, we don’t care who is

running ‘The Cloud’; we just use it and rely on it. Remember personal backups and

corporate data-centers? Archaic and forgotten!

Everything we do in business and in our personal lives, from records to

entertainment is stored in the cloud and available anytime, anywhere and on any

device. Privacy and security concerns are a thing of the past. Nothing is forgotten,

and everything can be found.


Beyond>2020

Size means nothing. Scale is it.

Everyone can access sophisticated networks, computing power & software.

Today, size means nothing. Even the smallest entrepreneurial

business has access to virtually unlimited computing power and

sophisticated software, in The Cloud. It’s all about scale, and anyone

can scale! We can access virtual server networks in an instant, on

demand. Whether a contract calls for genomic sequencing for

thousands, or actuarial calculations on a real-time basis, the answer is

“Yes, we can!”

Barriers to entry have disappeared, and agility is more important than

strength. Innovation rules the day.


Beyond>2020

Beyond ‘Green’ ‘Eco-wars’ have polarised the world. Only

the previously rich West still has green passions & is fighting holy wars…

…but can’t afford the consequences.


Beyond 2020, reality vs. morals and principles has become much more complex – even

though openness has driven the issues to the surface. While much of the world exploits

green business opportunities and we enjoy the benefits of green energy breakthroughs,

environmental factors have divided businesses and countries. The new economic leaders

from the East have prospered, with a pragmatic, business-like approach.


Beyond>2020

The new gold Water is the new scarcity and the new

opportunity. Legislation gives every product a ‘water index’. Bottled water is now the

preserve of the ultra-insensitive.


By 2014 it was clear – water was the critical issue facing our planet, or rather, the lack of

potable water, and its impact on our ability to feed earth’s almost 8 billion people.

Today in 2022 we have to cope with water taxes on every product, cradle to cradle water

indexes for every product. Even meat consumption is under pressure. The water ratings

are made public on all packaging, billboards and in every advertisement in every medium,

making the old cigarette health warnings seem tame and mild by comparison!

China, always seeing further ahead than Western nations, lead the race for water security

with its Tibetan glacier plan. No country or business can escape the intense public

scrutiny of its business model and the water implications.


Beyond>2020

Naked Leadership Leaders have learnt to thrive in a

ubiquitously open & transparent world – beyond the luxuries of hierarchies &

control. They understand the future as well as they do the past. They network their

dreams and inspire followership.


Uber-connectivity has demonstrated to a generation of young leaders that collaboration

is possible, simple - and delivers great results. Individual ego is being left behind in the

pursuit of new sustainable business and government, although many politicians are

struggling with the concept.


Beyond>2020

Betting the Pharm Pharming is booming!

In response to huge demands for food, water and health,

bio- and nanotech have spawned massive new industries.

The start of the 21st Century saw the glory days of the “old” Information Revolution.

But now the new Information Revolution is in full swing, with bio- and nanotechnology

at last delivering on their promises. Many people work at jobs in industries that simply

did not exist 10 years ago.


Beyond>2020

Bring your own! The company computer has gone the way of

the company car. BYO is the norm.

Cloud services hunt down, delete and replace data and tools, instantly!

One of the biggest impacts has been on traditional IT departments. With everything

from management of devices to software support becoming Cloud-driven services,

old IT drones have had to reinvent themselves – as did auditors and other bean-counters.


Beyond>2020

A truly open society Openness and transparency are not just

corporate- and political-speak. They are integral to cultural norms - with

profound implications.

A decade ago, FutureWorld called it “the greatest power shift in human

history” – the movement of power from governments and institutions

into the hands of connected individuals. We saw it happening in the

Arab Spring, and in the “99%” protest movement that spread around

the globe.

Now, openness and transparency are truly embedded in business,

politics and society. The implications are profound, as an entire

generation of last-decade politicians and business leaders have learnt,

to their cost.


Beyond>2020

Beyond knowledge Beyond the Knowledge Economy -

knowledge has zero value - it’s all available to everyone from birth.

New lenses create quantum value.

Remember the old saying: “Knowledge is power”? Not in a world where all knowledge

is available to everyone. This has powerfully demonstrated that knowledge alone is

not the definer of value – it’s the ability to turn knowledge into intelligence and creativity.

Making access to knowledge available to all has sparked dramatic innovation.


Beyond>2020

Conscious Capitalism established

Thriving on inclusivity and sustainable profits


Greed doesn’t work as a strategy – finally, the penny has dropped! Business leaders

have embraced inclusivity, aligning commercial interests, community pressures and job

creation. Leaders have developed ‘quantum relationship’ skills to engage with a diverse

set of role players.


Beyond>2020

Welcome to the rEconomy! In this ubiquitously connected world, people

are no longer your most valuable asset… …relationships are!

Return-on-relationships is the key value-driver in this ultra-connected world. Winning

businesses seek to build long-term partnerships, rather than pursue short-term “win-lose”

gains. People will always be important – but the capacity to network is priceless!


Beyond>2020

Market forces shape everything!

It’s a war for talent and customers.

Create a cool culture to attract BYTs.

Connect your business to the hearts of your customers, communities and individuals.



Beyond>2020

Winners have learnt to thrive

on chaos and turbulence.

Incrementalism doesn’t cut it anymore! Profound success is not predictable.

Taking risks is safer than doing nothing.


Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved

Beyond>2020

Markets are dynamic and chaotic –

the most competitive ever.

It’s the end of ‘competition’.

Winners find white-space opportunities where there are no competitors.


The future is unknowable – it’s the field of all

possibilities!

Uncertainty is that moment of real freedom,

beyond historic baggage.


Beyond>2020


The future is the only destination we have.

We’ll spend most of

the rest of our lives there.

Choose your future carefully!


Beyond>2020


…at www.FutureWorld.org

Explore these alternate futures further with MindBullets and FuturesForum


Beyond>2020

http://www.futureworld.org/