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Betfair Hurdle Day Analysis:

Trends & Pedigree

Analysing 3 races from

Newbury Betfair Hurdle Day

from an alternative viewpoint

Guide by Narrowing The Field

www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk

http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/

Denman Chase (Grade 2)

13th February – 2.25 Newbury

Denman Chase: Winners Trends Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 14 winners of the Denman

Chase so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Denman Chase Trends

1 14/14 had an OR of 148+

2 14/14 had 17 or less previous chase starts

3 13/14 ran within the past 55 days

4 13/14 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out

5 13/14 had previously won at G1 or G2 level

6 13/14 had 2 or more starts in current season

7 12/14 were aged 7, 8 or 9

8 12/14 recorded a top 4 finish last time out

9 12/14 had previously won at 3m+

10 12/14 won 1 of last 3 starts

11 11/14 19 or less previous NH starts

12 11/14 ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out

13 11/14 had 4+ chase wins

2016 Denman Chase Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 13 winners of the Denman

Chase to this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Tot

ROCKY CREEK Y Y N Y Y Y N N Y N Y N Y 8/13

THE GIANT BOLSTER N N Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y Y 8/13

BOBFORD N N Y Y N Y Y N Y Y N N Y 7/13

BALLYNAGOUR Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N N Y N 7/13

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX N N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N N N Y 7/13

SPLASH OF GINGE N Y Y Y N Y Y N N N N Y N 6/13

MIDNIGHT APPEAL N N N N N Y N N Y N N N Y 3/13

Trend Follower(s) – ROCKY CREEK | THE GIANT BOLSTER

Denman Chase: Winners Pedigree Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 14 winners of the Denman

Chase and applies them to this year’s entries.

*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s

pedigree.

DP 13/14 had 8 points or more in their DP

DI 9/13 had a DI of 1.00 or below

8/13 had a DI of 0.69 or below

CD 9/13 had a CD of -0.05 or below

DPA (7/14) - DQ - 4 / 20+ - 3 / PATB - 0

2016 Denman Chase Entries: Dosage Applied

Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –

Snug Fit

ROCKY CREEK 3-1-8-8-0 20+ 20 0.67 -0.05

THE GIANT BOLSTER 3-0-10-5-2 20+ 20 0.67 -0.15

SPLASH OF GINGE 4-0-6-12-2 20+ 24 0.41 -0.33

Can’t be discounted

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 2-0-13-5-0 20+ 20 0.74 -0.05

MIDNIGHT APPEAL 2-0-4-1-1 / 8 1.00 0.13

Not ideal

BALLYNAGOUR 4-3-7-3-1 PATB 18 1.40 0.33

BOBFORD 1-5-0-0-0 / 6 INF 1.17

Wide of the mark

N/A

2016 Denman Chase: Pace analysis

Here we take a look at the race from a Pace angle –

BOB FORD would be the likely pace-setter in this contest with HOUBLON DES OBEAUX

& THE GIANT BOLSTER possibly sitting just off him. BALLYNAGOUR will probably be

anchored out the back.

Here is the how the past 14 winners of the race have run in the race –

Running Style fr-3 / cp-10 / hu-1

Horse RS Running Style

ROCKY CREEK CP CP

SPLASH OF GINGE HU/CP HU/CP

BOBFORD FR/CP FR/CP

BALLYNAGOUR HU HU

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX CP CP

MIDNIGHT APPEAL CP CP

THE GIANT BOLSTER CP CP

HU CP FR

BALLYNAGOUR ROCKY CREEK

SPLASH OF GINGE BOBFORD

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX

MIDNIGHT APPEAL

THE GIANT BOLSTER

Denman Chase Trial Summary

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 14)

ROCKY CREEK – 9/14

THE GIANT BOLSTER – 9/14

Conclusion/Selection(s)

ROCKY CREEK (P Nicholls) – This is a race Nicholls likes to win (8 wins in

last 15 renewals) and this boy looks to have prime conditions here to

add to that tally. He’s an NTF Trend Horse and the conditions I

highlighted for him were - Form of 112111P in Dec – Feb | Form of

821121112 over 3m – 3m0.5f | Form of 11P12121502P on Soft & Good to

Soft ground | Best on flat or slightly undulating tracks – all those

conditions are met here today. Add in his G2 form (1132), his form in

fields of 11 or less (111132222) and his form after a break of 61+ days

(15122222) then it isn’t hard to make a strong case for him here, in what

looks a pretty weak renewal of this G2.

Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2)


Game Spirit Chase Chase: Winners Trends

Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Game Spirit

Chase so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Game Spirit Chase Trends

1 15/15 ran at least at class 2 level last time out

2 15/15 recorded a top 2 finish on 1 of last 3 starts


4 13/15 were aged between 6 & 9

5 13/15 had 1, 2 or 3 starts in the current season

6 13/15 had an OR of 155+

7 13/15 had 22 or less previous NH starts

8 12/15 had 15 or less previous chase starts

9 12/15 recorded a top 3 finish last time out

10 12/15 were either (IRE) or (FR) bred

11 11/15 had 4+ previous chase victories

12 11/15 had previously won at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level

2016 Game Spirit Chase Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Game Spirit

Chase to this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tot

TOP GAMBLE Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 11/12

DODGING BULLETS Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N Y Y 10/12

L AMI SERGE N Y Y Y Y ? Y Y Y Y N Y 9/11

CAPTAIN CONAN Y N Y Y Y N Y Y N Y Y Y 9/12

UN BEAU ROMAN Y Y Y Y N N N Y N Y N N 6/12

Trend Follower(s) – TOP GAMBLE

Game Spirit Chase: Winners Pedigree

Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Game Spirit

Chase and applies them to this year’s entries.


pedigree.


DI 12/15 had a DI of 0.68 or above

1/15 had a DI above 2.00

CD 12/15 had a CD of -0.23 or above

0/15 had a CD above 0.61

DPA (6/15) - DQ - 4 / 20+ - 0 / PATB - 2

2016 Game Spirit Chase Entries: Dosage Applied


Snug Fit

UN BEAU ROMAN 5-3-10-4-0 20+ 22 1.44 0.41

L AMI SERGE 4-0-8-4-0 / 16 1.00 0.25

DODGING BULLETS 3-1-12-1-1 PATB 18 1.25 0.22

CAPTAIN CONAN 6-2-17-9-0 20+ 34 0.94 0.15


N/A

Not ideal

TOP GAMBLE 3-1-9-8-3 DQ 24 0.55 -0.29

Wide of the mark

N/A

2016 Game Spirit Chase: Pace analysis


L’AMI SERGE will most likely be running at Warwick rather than here so from a pace

angle this could be tactical. TOP GAMBLE has gone from the front before and I

suspect he will be the one to take up the running here now he’s dropped back in

trip.




DODGING BULLETS CP CP

TOP GAMBLE CP/HU CP/HU

L AMI SERGE FR/CP FR/CP

CAPTAIN CONAN HU/CP HU/CP

UN BEAU ROMAN HU HU

HU CP FR

DODGING BULLETS

TOP GAMBLE L AMI SERGE

CAPTAIN CONAN

UN BEAU ROMAN

Game Spirit Chase Summary

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 13)…

DODGING BULLETS – 11/13

TOP GAMBLE – 11/13


TOP GAMBLE (K Lee) – Well worth taking on Dodging Bullets at odds-on

here on his first run since taking the QMCC, a race that is sure to be his

main target this year round again. TOP GAMBLE may well take them

along from the front now he’s dropped back in trip and he could prove

hard to catch on ground that will be bang ideal for him (11123 on Soft

ground). He revels in small fields (2111251 in fields of 7 or less), is

11112215 over 2m – 2m1f and prefers to be away from very undulating

tracks (6/10 on flat/slightly undulating tracks – 0/5 on v undulating

tracks). The horse has decent G2 form (21) and Johnson is 1 from 1 on

him. If they do decide to kick on with him from the front Johnson is the

perfect guy to do the job and he’s well worth a punt at 9/2-5/1.

Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3 Hcp)


Betfair Hurdle: Winners Trends Analysis

This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Betfair

Hurdle so that we can apply them to this year’s entries.

Betfair Hurdle Trends

1 15/15 recorded a top 2 finish on 1 of last 3 starts

2 15/15 2 or less previous Handicap Hurdle wins

3 14/15 were aged 5, 6 or 7

4 14/15 15 or less previous hurdle starts

5 14/15 16 or less previous NH starts

6 13/15 had last run between 14 & 79 days previous

7 13/15 were a novice or 2nd season hurdler

8 13/15 had between 2 & 4 previous Hurdle victories

9 13/15 carried 11-3 or less to victory

10 13/15 finished in the top 4 last time out

11 12/15 had an OR of 144 or below

12 12/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred


2016 Betfair Hurdle Entries: Trends Applied

This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Betfair Hurdle

to this year’s entrants.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Tot

MAD JACK MYTTON Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 13/13

STERNRUBIN Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y 12/13

MODUS Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 12/13

MATORICO Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y 12/13

BABY KING Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y 12/13

WAR SOUND Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N Y Y 11/13

AGRAPART Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y 11/13

STARCHITECT Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y 11/13

ZARIB N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 11/13

AFFAIRE D HONNEUR Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y 11/13

BLAZER Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y 11/13

CHIEFTAINS CHOICE N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 11/13

FLYING ANGEL Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y 11/13

DICOSIMO Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N N Y 10/13

KALKIR Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N Y 10/13

BUISENESS SIVOLA Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N Y N Y 10/13

FOREST BIHAN Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N 10/13

CHAMPAGNE AT TARA Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y N Y Y Y 10/13

IVAN GROZNY Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N Y 9/13

WAXIES DARGLE N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y N Y Y Y 9/13

CHELTENIAN Y Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N N Y 7/13

MONTBAZON N Y N Y Y N N Y Y Y Y N N 7/13

Trend Follower(s) – MAD JACK MYTTON

Betfair Hurdle: Winners Pedigree Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Betfair Hurdle

and applies them to this year’s entries.


pedigree.


12/15 had 16 points or more in their DP

DI 12/15 had a DI of 1.18 or below

11/15 had a DI of 1.11 or below

CD 12/15 had a CD of 0.33 or below

11/15 had a CD of 0.15 or below

DPA (11/15) - DQ - 6 / 20+ - 5 / PATB - 0

2016 Betfair Hurdle Entries: Dosage Applied


Snug Fit

WAR SOUND 4-0-10-6-0 20+ 20 0.82 0.10

FLYING ANGEL 2-2-5-5-0 / 14 0.87 0.07

MONTBAZON 4-0-12-6-2 20+ 24 0.71 -0.08

AFFAIRE D HONNEUR 1-1-6-4-0 / 12 0.71 -0.08

CHAMPAGNE AT TARA 2-0-10-6-0 / 18 0.64 -0.11

MAD JACK MYTTON 2-2-8-6-2 DQ 20 0.67 -0.20

KALKIR 1-0-8-7-0 / 16 0.45 -0.31

STERNRUBIN 1-0-12-11-0 20+ 24 0.41 -0.38

AGRAPART 1-0-9-4-2 / 16 0.52 -0.38

BLAZER 0-0-4-8-2 / 14 0.17 -0.86


ZARIB 3-0-7-1-1 / 12 1.18 0.25

CHIEFTAINS CHOICE 4-0-10-4-0 / 18 1.00 0.22

STARCHITECT 4-1-17-4-0 20+ 26 1.08 0.19

IVAN GROZNY 2-1-6-3-0 / 12 1.00 0.17

Not ideal

CHELTENIAN 2-2-6-0-2 / 12 1.40 0.17

BUISENESS SIVOLA 2-3-19-2-0 20+ 26 1.26 0.19

WAXIES DARGLE 3-10-12-4-1 DQ 30 1.73 0.33

MODUS 7-3-13-7-0 20+ 30 1.22 0.33

BABY KING 3-4-14-3-0 20+ 24 1.40 0.29

Wide of the mark

MATORICO 1-1-4-0-0 / 6 2.00 0.50

DICOSIMO 0-0-4-0-0 / 4 1.00 0.00

FOREST BIHAN 0-0-3-1-0 / 4 0.60 -0.25

2016 Betfair Hurdle: Pace analysis


This should be run at a decent gallop with the likes of DICOSIMO, STERNRUBIN and

CHIEFTAINS CHOICE all likely to be looking to get on with things and AGRAPART &

STARCHITECT sitting right on their tail.




CHELTENIAN CP/HU CP/HU

DICOSIMO FR FR

WAR SOUND HU HU

KALKIR HU/CP HU/CP

IVAN GROZNY CP CP

BUISENESS SIVOLA CP CP

STERNRUBIN FR FR

WAXIES DARGLE HU/CP HU/CP

MAD JACK MYTTON HU HU

FOREST BIHAN CP/HU CP/HU

MONTBAZON HU HU

MODUS HU HU

AGRAPART FR/CP FR/CP

MATORICO HU HU

STARCHITECT FR/CP FR/CP

ZARIB HU HU

AFFAIRE D HONNEUR HU/CP HU/CP

BLAZER CP/HU CP/HU

CHIEFTAINS CHOICE FR FR

CHAMPAGNE AT TARA HU/CP HU/CP

BABY KING HU HU

FLYING ANGEL HU HU

HU CP FR

WAR SOUND CHELTENIAN DICOSIMO

KALKIR IVAN GROZNY

MAD JACK MYTTON BUISENESS SIVOLA STERNRUBIN

WAXIES DARGLE

MONTBAZON FOREST BIHAN AGRAPART

MODUS STARCHITECT

MATORICO CHIEFTAINS CHOICE

ZARIB

AFFAIRE D HONNEUR

BLAZER

CHAMPAGNE AT TARA

BABY KING

FLYING ANGEL

Betfair Hurdle Summary

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 14)…

MAD JACK MYTTON – 14/14

STERNRUBIN - 13/14

MODUS – 12/14

AGRAPART -12/14

BABY KING – 12/14

MATORICO – 12/14


STERNRUBIN (P Hobbs) – Very much a horse on the up and his forceful and battling

display at Ascot last time out was nothing if not eye-catching. He already has a

C&D victory on his CV (also on Soft ground) from earlier this season so we know the

track holds no fear for him and although he needs to step up again I don’t think

that’s out of the question.

MAD JACK MYTTON (JJ O’Neill) – He’s bang top of the figures with full marks so it

would be folly to ignore him with lofty prices floating around. The form of his last start

at Cheltenham has worked out quite well so far and considering he still has a

Champion Hurdle entry (!?) they must clearly think plenty of him.

AGRAPART (N Williams) – This 5yo was mightily impressive when winning at Aintree in

December and was far from disgraced in third at Sandown last time out in the

Tolworth. The form of that race has already started to work out very well and 137

(132 minus Lizzie Kelly’s 5lb claim) puts him on a very workable mark for this, his

handicap debut.

Please undertake sensible betting practices at all times.

Visit www.gambleaware.co.uk to find out more about gambling.

Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.

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