bestandsanalyse af tobis i nordsøen sektionsleder henrik mosegaard, dtu aqua, danmark
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Bestandsanalyse af tobis i Nordsøen sektionsleder Henrik Mosegaard, DTU Aqua, Danmark.. ?. Tobisen - en lille fisk i en kaotisk verden. Mange forskellige interessenter gør krav på tobisen eller dens levesteder. DTU-Aqua arbejde med tobis. Indsamling og oparbejdning af tobisprøver - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Bestandsanalyse af tobis i
Nordsøen
sektionsleder Henrik Mosegaard,
DTU Aqua, Danmark.
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
?
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Tobisen - en lille fisk i en kaotisk verden
Mange forskellige interessenter gør krav på tobisen eller dens levesteder
Fiskeri
Økosystemhensyn
Maritime Krav på habitater
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
DTU-Aqua arbejde med tobis
• Indsamling og oparbejdning af tobisprøver– Fiskeriet
– Togter
– Eksperimenter
• Databearbejdning til bestandsvurdering i ICES/EU– WGNSSK (den ordinære arbejdsgruppe i ICES)
– AGSAN(2)
– Fast track behandling af RTM (real tids monitering)
– STECF sub-group til behandling af RTM
• Modellering af tobisens bestandsudvikling– Nationale forskningsprojekter
– EU-projekter
• Generel forbedret viden om tobis– Institutarbejde indenfor ordinært budget
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Klækningfra Feb/Mar
Settlingfra Maj
Pelagisk faseFeb-Maj
GydningDec/Jan
Survey strategi kontra tobisens biologi
Opmåling af forekomster af tobislarver i vandsøjlen
Opmåling af forekomster af tobis vandsøjlen
Opmåling af forekomster af settlede tobis i havbunden
Opmåling af forekomster af æg på havbunden
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Nedgravet jan-marts
Nedgravningjuli-dec
Fouragering marts-juni
Gydningdec-jan
Fiskeriundersøgelser kontra tobisens biologi
Data kompilering inden RTM
ICES WGNSSK
Oparbejdning af indsamlede fiskeri- og survey- prøver
RTM under fiskerisæsonenOparbejdning af prøver
Skrabetogt efter 0- og 1+ gruppe i havbunden Week 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
ICES bestandsvurdering
• Fangster i tons
• Aldersfordeling
• Fangst pr. Standardiseret fiskedag
• Opdeling i nordlig og sydlig Nordsø
• Opdeling i 1. og 2. halvår
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Historisk udvikling i fangstfordeling1995-2007
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 1995
Total landing:915 000 t
Max square landing:138 000 t in 49F2
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 1996
Total landing:776 000 t
Max square landing:49 000 t in 37F1
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 1997
Total landing:1114 000 t
Max square landing:141 000 t in 43F4
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 1998
Total landing:1000 000 t
Max square landing:124 000 t in 44F3
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 1999
Total landing:719 000 t
Max square landing:76 000 t in 39F1
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 2000
Total landing:692 000 t
Max square landing:78 000 t in 43F5
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 2001
Total landing:859 000 t
Max square landing:90 000 t in 43F5
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 2002
Total landing:807 000 t
Max square landing:163 000 t in 39F1
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 2003
Total landing:310 000 t
Max square landing:41 000 t in 41E9
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 2004
Total landing:359 000 t
Max square landing:29 000 t in 39F1
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 2005
Total landing:172 000 t
Max square landing:21 000 t in 39F1
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N 2006
Total landing:266 000 t
Max square landing:56 000 t in 39F1
4°0'W 2°0'W 0°0' 2°0'E 4°0'E 6°0'E 8°0'E 10°0'E 12°0'E 14°0'E
51°0'N
52°0'N
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
59°0'N
60°0'N
61°0'N
Total landing:196 000 t
Max square landing:34 000 t in 43F5
2007
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Typiske år for ændringer i geografisk fiskerimønster
tidsserie 1983-2006 for CPUE pr ICES stat-rekt fra danske logbogs data
1983 19921987
1996 2000 2004
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
WGNSSK2007: Landinger, F, Rekruttering og SSB
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Landings
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Land
ings
in t
Fishing Mortality
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
F(a
ges
1-2)
Recruitment at (age 0)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Rec
ruitm
ent
in b
illio
ns
Spawning Stock Biomass
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
SS
B in
000
tSSB Blim Bpa Forecast (revised method)
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Historisk mønster i opfattelsen af tobis bestanden
SSB
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
t
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
SXSA 2006
XSA 2006
SXSA 2007 run01
2004 std progn
2005 std progn
2006 std progn
2006 rev progn
2007 std progn
Fbar 1-2
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Fb
ar
1-2
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
SXSA 2006
XSA 2006
SXSA 2007 run01
Recruitment age 0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
10
9
2002
2003
2004
2005
SXSA 2006
XSA 2006
SXSA 2007 run01
SSB
Rekruttering 0-gr
F (1-2)
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Realtidsmonitering RTM
• Hvor mange gydende tobis er der i Nordsøen?
• Hvor stor er årgangen af 1-gruppe?
• Relation mellem fangst pr. indsats (CPUE) og 1-gruppe rekruttering
• Udregning af TAC i tons udfra antal 1-gruppe plus overlevende 2+ gruppe samt deres vægt i fangsterne
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
RTM 2008 - resultater
Længdefordelinger af tobis pr. uge i 2008 landingerne gul = alder 1 sort = alder 2+ (88% er alder 1)
Week 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Udviklingen I CPUE gennem 2008 fiskeriet til udregning af endelig TAC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
14 15 16 17 18
Week
Sta
nd
ard
ise
d C
PU
E (
t/d
ay
)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Mange fiskeprædatorer æder tobis
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Tobisen spiller i øvrigt en vigtig rolle for mange topprædatorer i Nordsøens økosystem
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Hvad man kan finde i sildemaver
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Spatial distribution of fishing effort for sandeel during the peak of the fishery in April–June (each point represents one VMS observation and can be interpreted as 1 hour fishing).
CEFAS har arbejdet med en IBM med predation
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Størrelses preferensen hos forskellige rovfisk
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
log PPLR
Pre
fere
nce
Whiting
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
log PPLR
Pre
fere
nce
Gurnard
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
log PPLR
Pre
fere
nce
Weever
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
log PPLR
Pre
fere
nce
All
6 CEFAS togter fra 2004-2006 på Dogger Banke.
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
JNCC’s årlige monitering af søfugle ynglesuccess på øen May
Kittiwake breeding success as a function of winter sea surface temperature.
With O and without ● sandeel fishery
Fredriksen et al 2004
Søfugle i Firth of Forth
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
ARA 1
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Længde
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Bre
dd
e
Hydrografiske fronter i Nordsøen dannet af strømme, tidevand og saltforskelle
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Behrens et al. 2007
Nedgravning om natten og om vinteren kræver sand sediment af bestemt beskaffenhed for at få tilførsel af O2-rigt vand
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Model af tobis larve drift og overlevelses chance
Julian day
Sandeel length
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Model for transport af tobislarver
• individbaseret model:
– Transport langs havstrømme
– Spredning gennem vertikal turbulens og strømnng
– Larve vækst afgør spredningens timing afhængigt af temperatur og føde
• Hydrodynamisk model: (HAMSOM, Schrum & Backhaus, 1999)
– opløsning: 10 km horizontalt, vertikal lagdeling på 5 m
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Rekrutteringsmodel ud fra fysiske og biologiske processer
Ægklækning på banker og passiv larvedrift med havstrømme. Modelresultater: Gennemsnitlig drift= 60km :: 90% drift < 125 km •Chance for at ramme banke ca 20% +/- 5-50%•Retention selvforsørgende rekruttering højest på Dogger banke
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Sandeel LArval drift and recruitment Model SLAM
De vigtigste interregionale transportveje for tobis larver I Nordsøen
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Årlig variabilitet i transport
Larve transport success
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
• Prognosis of relative abundance of fishable 1+ group sandeels for 2007 season. Green is high local stock abundance, red means lower local stock abundance
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Danske VMS registreringer under 2007 fiskeri
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3°0'W
2°0'W
2°0'W
1°0'W
1°0'W 0°0' 1°0'E 2°0'E
2°0'E
3°0'E 4°0'E
4°0'E
5°0'E
5°0'E
6°0'E
6°0'E
7°0'E
7°0'E
8°0'E 9°0'E 10°0'E
10°0'E
12°0'E
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
Layers! VMS_RTM07_filter Events
! VMS_RTM07_all Events
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Nuværende opfattelse af tobisbanker I Nordsøen
• Hvordan ser tobisens populationsstruktur ud i forhold til banker og hydrografi?
• Modelanalyser udfra denne opdeling
Gule områder er fordelingen af tobis hbitater
Figure 6.6.1.1 Map of North Sea potential sandeel habitats (yellow) with an indication of the closed area of Firth of Forth (red line)
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Tobis larve survey (øvre panel) 0-gr skrabe survey (nedre)
! ! !! !
!!
! !!
!!!!
!!! !!!!!
! !!! ! !
! !
! !
!!!
! !!
10°0'E9°0'E8°0'E7°0'E6°0'E5°0'E4°0'E3°0'E2°0'E1°0'E0°0'1°0'W2°0'W3°0'W4°0'W5°0'W
58°0'N
57°0'N
56°0'N
55°0'N
54°0'N
53°0'N
Dec 07 (L151/07)
No. per hour
! 0 - 816
! 817 - 1632
! 1633 - 2449
! 2450 - 3265
! 3266 - 4081
! 4082 - 4897
! 4898 - 5713
! 5714 - 6530
! 6531 - 7346
! 7347 - 8162
EE
E
E!E !E E
EE
E!EEE
4°0'W
2°0'W
2°0'W 0°0'
0°0'
1°0'E 2°0'E 3°0'E
3°0'E
4°0'E
4°0'E
5°0'E 6°0'E 7°0'E
7°0'E
8°0'E
8°0'E
9°0'E
10°0'E
11°0'E
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
2004 AprilLarvae per m**3
E 0.000 - 0.015
! 0.015 - 0.038
! 0.038 - 0.074
! 0.074 - 0.127
! 0.127 - 0.201
! 0.201 - 0.336
! 0.336 - 0.530
! 0.530 - 1.165
! !!
!
! !
!!!
!
!! !!
!!!!
! !!
10°0'E9°0'E8°0'E7°0'E6°0'E5°0'E4°0'E3°0'E2°0'E1°0'E0°0'1°0'W2°0'W3°0'W4°0'W5°0'W
58°0'N
57°0'N
56°0'N
55°0'N
54°0'N
53°0'N
Dec 04 (E349/04)
No. per hour
! 0 - 816
! 817 - 1632
! 1633 - 2449
! 2450 - 3265
! 3266 - 4081
! 4082 - 4897
! 4898 - 5713
! 5714 - 6530
! 6531 - 7346
! 7347 - 8162
!!!!!! !!!!
! EE
E
!
!E
!EE
!
!EE EE
! EE! E
E!
!
!!!E
!E E !
!EE
!!!!E
!!!!!EE!!!!
EEE!!E! E!!!
!!E
E !
!!!!!E
4°0'W
2°0'W
2°0'W 0°0'
0°0'
1°0'E 2°0'E 3°0'E
3°0'E
4°0'E
4°0'E
5°0'E 6°0'E 7°0'E
7°0'E
8°0'E
8°0'E
9°0'E
10°0'E
11°0'E
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
2005 AprilLarvae per m**3
E 0.000 - 0.015
! 0.015 - 0.038
! 0.038 - 0.074
! 0.074 - 0.127
! 0.127 - 0.201
! 0.201 - 0.336
! 0.336 - 0.530
! 0.530 - 1.165
! !!
!!!!!!!! !
!! !!
!!!!!
! !!!
10°0'E9°0'E8°0'E7°0'E6°0'E5°0'E4°0'E3°0'E2°0'E1°0'E0°0'1°0'W2°0'W3°0'W4°0'W5°0'W
58°0'N
57°0'N
56°0'N
55°0'N
54°0'N
53°0'N
Dec 05 (E349/05)
No. per hour
E349_05_nohour_loc_dec06.txt Eventsnohour
! 0 - 816
! 817 - 1632
! 1633 - 2449
! 2450 - 3265
! 3266 - 4081
! 4082 - 4897
! 4898 - 5713
! 5714 - 6530
! 6531 - 7346
! 7347 - 8162
EEEE E!!E! !! !!EE !!!!!!
!
!
E!E
EEE E
!!!!!E !!!!
4°0'W
2°0'W
2°0'W 0°0'
0°0'
1°0'E 2°0'E 3°0'E
3°0'E
4°0'E
4°0'E
5°0'E 6°0'E 7°0'E
7°0'E
8°0'E
8°0'E
9°0'E
10°0'E
11°0'E
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
2006 AprilLarvae per m**3
E 0.000 - 0.015
! 0.015 - 0.038
! 0.038 - 0.074
! 0.074 - 0.127
! 0.127 - 0.201
! 0.201 - 0.336
! 0.336 - 0.530
! 0.530 - 1.165
!!! !
! !
!! !!
!! !
! !
!!!!!!
!!!!! !
!!
! !
10°0'E9°0'E8°0'E7°0'E6°0'E5°0'E4°0'E3°0'E2°0'E1°0'E0°0'1°0'W2°0'W3°0'W4°0'W5°0'W
58°0'N
57°0'N
56°0'N
55°0'N
54°0'N
53°0'N
Dec 06 (L151/06)
No. per hour
! 0 - 816
! 817 - 1632
! 1633 - 2449
! 2450 - 3265
! 3266 - 4081
! 4082 - 4897
! 4898 - 5713
! 5714 - 6530
! 6531 - 7346
! 7347 - 8162
!!!!!! !!!!
!
!EE!!
E!
EE !
!!!!
!!!
!!!!E
!!!!
! !! !!E
!
4°0'W
2°0'W
2°0'W 0°0'
0°0'
1°0'E 2°0'E 3°0'E
3°0'E
4°0'E
4°0'E
5°0'E 6°0'E 7°0'E
7°0'E
8°0'E
8°0'E
9°0'E
10°0'E
11°0'E
53°0'N
54°0'N
55°0'N
56°0'N
57°0'N
58°0'N
2007 AprilLarvae per m**3
E 0.000 - 0.015
! 0.015 - 0.038
! 0.038 - 0.074
! 0.074 - 0.127
! 0.127 - 0.201
! 0.201 - 0.336
! 0.336 - 0.530
! 0.530 - 1.165
2004 2005 20072006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Abundance relative to 2005
R (
ICE
S 2
007
) re
lativ
e to
200
5
Dredge 1m MIK 1m MIK - 2007
2006
2004
2005
2006
2003
2007
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Opdeling af Nordsøen i tobis habitater
• Tobisbanker opdelt i 5 større regioner
• Tobisbanker opdelt efter ICES rektangler
• DTU-Aqua undersøger den optimale opdeling
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Eksempel med tilfældigt udvalgt ICES rektangel
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Modelanalyse af lukket ICES rektangel
• Tobis populations dynamik
• N bestanden af 1+ gruppe
• 37F2 lukkes for fiskeri år 0
• Venstre år-år dynamik
• Højre udglattet bestandsudvikling
Yield:
Local decline = -13%
Total North Sea increase = 10%
37F2
36F2
38F2
37F1
37F3
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
50 år
10 år
4 år
tidsskala
Lokal nedgang i fangst pga. lukket ICES rektangel kompenseres af en generel øgning af fangst i Nordsøen (+10%)
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Specifik længdefordeling på hver banke
Tobisens populationsstruktur
2-3May
10-11May
29May
Fangstbarhed afhængig af tobisens livshistorie
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Tobisens populationsstruktur
Fordeling af geografiske afstande mellem banker
Cumulative distribution of distances between samples
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
0
50
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
40
0
45
0
distance (km)
F(k
m)
Frequency of distances between samples
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0
50
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
40
0
distance (km)f(
km
)
DISTANCE=R*ACOS[SIN(Lat1)SIN(Lat2)+COS(Lat1)COS(Lat2)COS(Lon1-Lon2)]Radians=π * degrees/180; R = radius of the earth = 3963.1miles
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
D (distance km)
L-di
st d
iffer
ence
Tobisens populationsstruktur
• Gennemsnitlig parvis forskel i længdefordeling mellem tobis på enkelte banker
y = -2E-06x2 + 0.0012x + 0.337
R2 = 0.25350
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 100 200 300 400 500
D (distance km)
L-d
ist
dif
fere
nc
e
y=Dinf * (1-EXP(-K * (D - a/K)))R2 = 0.6024
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Øresten (Otolitter) som værktøj til studier af tobis’ livscyklus
Set i lup med påfaldende lys
Translucent “vinterring”
Opak vækstzone
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
0
50
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900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300
Otolith length
the
wid
th o
f th
e w
inte
rrin
g
st80
43
2
52
25280
43
Tobis bestandsstruktur
Variation i otolitstruktur indenfor korte afstande
Tobis fanget indenfor samme uge i oktober
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Realtidsmonitering RTM
• Hvor mange gydende tobis er der i Nordsøen?
• Hvor stor er årgangen af 1-gruppe?
• Relation mellem fangst pr. indsats (CPUE) og 1-gruppe rekruttering
• Udregning af TAC i tons udfra antal 1-gruppe plus overlevende 2+ gruppe samt deres vægt i fangsterne
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
VMS data på dansk indsats 2008
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13°0'E11°0'E9°0'E8°0'E7°0'E6°0'E5°0'E4°0'E3°0'E2°0'E1°0'E0°0'1°0'W3°0'W5°0'W
59°0'N
58°0'N
57°0'N
56°0'N
55°0'N
54°0'N
53°0'N
52°0'N DK VMS week 14 and 15 - 30th April 2008
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13°0'E11°0'E9°0'E8°0'E7°0'E6°0'E5°0'E4°0'E3°0'E2°0'E1°0'E0°0'1°0'W3°0'W5°0'W
59°0'N
58°0'N
57°0'N
56°0'N
55°0'N
54°0'N
53°0'N
52°0'N DK VMS week 16, 17 and 18 - 30th April 2008
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
RTM 2008 - resultater
Længdefordelinger af tobis pr. uge i 2008 landingerne gul = alder 1 sort = alder 2+ (88% er alder 1)
Week 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Week 17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Tidsserie af fangst pr. Fiskedag i forskellige områder
• Højere CPUE Dogger-banke end i resten af Nordsøen
• Procentdelen taget på Dogger er lavest i begyndelsen af 1990- (Axis 2)
• Firth of Forth ikke medtaget men har de højeste fangstrater
R2 = 0.4596
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
År
CP
UE
to
n/d
ag
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Dogger
FF
rest
ALL
Dogger%
Poly.(Dogger%)Linear(Dogger)Linear(rest)Linear (FF)
Linear(ALL)
CPUE 1990-2001
Firth of Forth 144 ton/day
Dogger 70 ton/day
Rest of NS 45 ton/day
Dogger/Rest 1.57
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Fangstfordeling og dens variation inden rekrutteringssvigtet
Catchtons
50.000
25.000 5.000
CV
3 to 3,4 (8)2 to 3 (27)1 to 2 (60)0,3 to 1 (61)all others (6144)
2
3
1
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Målsætning for forvaltning af Nordsø-tobisen
• Langsigtet forvaltningsstrategi der sørger for:
– Bæredygtigt fiskeri
– Tillader at nå MSY (maksimal bæredygtig udbytte)
– Forhindrer lokal udtynding af tobisbestanden
– Tager hensyn til tobisens rolle i økosystemet
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Forvaltning af Nordsø-tobisen
• Ingen restriktioner
• TAC for hele Nordsøen
• TAC i forbindelse med Realtidsforvaltning og estimat af rekruttering under fiskerisæsonen
– Grundniveau fra kendt gydebiomasse (1+ gruppe fra årets assessment)
– Indsatsloft
• Områdebaseret forvaltning
– TAC for hvert af 5-10 delområder
• Mosaik af rekrutteringsbeskyttelse (total fordelings TAC)
– Permanent opsætning
– Dynamisk opsætning: rotation af små lukkede områder
Technical University of DenmarkNational Institute of Aquatic Resources
Tak for denne gang !