Bering Sea Ecosystem Study

Changing Climate

Seasonal sea ice has retreated over last two decades (1970 - 2002)

Percent ice cover within gray box on map above

Maximum ice extent

P. Stabeno & J. Overland, PMEL

♦

Vertically Averaged Water Temperature (°C) at M2

P. Stabeno, PMEL

What is BEST ?

• Mechanistic and Predictive Program:

Designed to understand and predict the consequences of climate change for Bering Sea marine ecosystems

• End to End Approach: Climate, physics, primary production, zooplankton, fish, birds, marine mammals and people

Assembling an End-to-End Program

www.arcus.org/bering/

- Atmosphere / Ocean

- Local Physics

- Phys - Biol Coupling

- Food Web Interactions

- Harvesting / Fisheries

- Socioeconomic Aspects

- Modeling Activities

- Field Research

- Retrospective Studies

BEST Priority Research Modules

• How is the Disappearance of Sea Ice Affecting the Bering Sea Ecosystem?

• What Controls the Abundance of Nutrients on the Shelf and What is the Influence of Climate Variability?

• What will be the Ecosystem Effects of a Warmer and More Stratified Bering Sea?

P. Stabeno, PMEL

First Phase (2007-2010): Sea Ice

Loss of Winter Sea Ice

Winter-time (MONTHS) sea ice has vanished from the Bering Sea over the last five decades (1954 - 2005)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

+2Winter Sea Ice Cover Index (1954 – 2005)

+1

-2

-1

0

http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov

P. Stabeno & J. Overland, PMEL

Warmer Everywhere

Arctic vs. Antarctic asymmetry

Decline in sub-polar surface salinity

Sarmiento et al. (2004) Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (3). GB3003

Anticipated Long-term Change

Early Ice Retreat Late Bloom, Warm Water – Large Copepod Biomass

Late Ice Retreat Early Bloom, Cold Water – Small Copepod Biomass

February March April May June

Ice, Wind, Bloom, Copepods

G. Hunt, UW - SAFS

Graph Courtesy

of Jeff Napp

Integrated Bering Sea Ecosystem Study

AFSCNMMLPMEL

USFWSUSGS

BASIS (NPAFC)

OPPArctic Natural

& Social Sciences

NPCREPLOSI

Beyond the Bering Sea

Integrated Bering Sea Ecosystem Study

http://www.arcus.org/Bering

Lower Trophic Level SessionPoster Presentations

Mark Benfield, Nicola Hillgruber, Philippe Grosjean, Marianne Alford, Sara Arndt, Jeffrey Bacon, and Sean Keenan Semi‑automated Processing of Bering Sea Zooplankton Samples Using ZOOIMAGE Software

Clara Deal, M. Jin, J. Wang, and T. Whitledge An Ecosystem Model Study of Plankton and Nutrient Dynamics in the Bering Sea Shelf with a Focus on the Nitrogen Budget and Water Column Nitrification

Lawrence Schaufler, and Jeff NappFatty Acid Composition of Mesozooplankton From The Bering Sea

Lower Trophic Level SessionOral Presentations

George Hunt - Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST)

Kohei Mizobata - Biochemical enhancement related to mesoscale eddies in the Bering Sea Green Belt

Jeffrey Napp - Regulation of Zooplankton Standing Stock and Production in the SE Bering Sea: Top-Down v. Bottom-Up Control and Recent Climate-Related Declines in a Subarctic Ecosystem

Lisa Eisner - Variations in physical and biological oceanography and forage fish distributions during fall in the eastern Bering Sea

BEST Information Sources• Web Site: http://www.arcus.org/Bering/index.html

• Science Plan, available in Hard Copy at:Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS)

3535 College Road, Suite 101, Fairbanks, AK 99709

Phone: 907-474-1600; Fax: 907-474-1604

• Planning Group. c/o George L. Hunt, Jr.

School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences

University of Washington, Seattle

Email: geohunt2@u.washington.edu