bbg research series · 2018. 5. 30. · utilizing bbg capabilities and expertise to meet unfilled...

BBG Research Series

Assessing Russia’s Influence in its Periphery

Russia-Findings from the World Poll 2014 Neli Esipova

Director of Research, Global Migration and Regional Director, Gallup

9%

22%

24%

46%

52%

56%

59%

63%

66%

71%

76%

13%

18%

29%

32%

8%

14%

23%

10%

13%

12%

14%

65%

57%

40%

8%

31%

22%

4%

21%

11%

9%

2%

13%

4%

7%

14%

10%

8%

14%

6%

10%

8%

8%

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Estonia

Moldova

Uzbekistan

Armenia

Belarus

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Russia

RELIABLE NOT RELIABLE (DO NOT USE) DK/RF

News Sources for Situation in Ukraine and Crimea:

Russian Media

Question: I would like to ask you about different sources for news about the events taking place in Ukraine and Crimea.

Please tell me whether you think each of the following sources is a reliable or not reliable source for news about the

situation in Ukraine and Crimea. If you do not use this news source, just say so.

3

5%

8%

10%

12%

12%

13%

14%

18%

19%

22%

22%

48%

13%

29%

44%

21%

21%

4%

33%

41%

27%

24%

36%

76%

46%

28%

58%

53%

68%

41%

26%

37%

45%

12%

4%

15%

17%

9%

13%

14%

8%

15%

14%

9%

Russia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Armenia

Uzbekistan

Georgia

Tajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Estonia

RELIABLE NOT RELIABLE (DO NOT USE) DK/RF

News Sources for Situation in Ukraine and Crimea: Western Media

Question: I would like to ask you about different sources for news about the events taking place in Ukraine and Crimea.



4

Most FSU Residents Who Use Western and Russian Media Trust Russian Media More Question: I would like to ask you about different sources for news about the events taking place in Ukraine and Crimea.



42% 45%

58% 64%

67% 74%

79% 80% 81% 85% 85%

36%

44% 41%

21% 26%

37%

10%

32% 36%

Georgia Estonia Moldova Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Russia Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan

% Media reliable, among those who use both sources

Russian Media Western Media

5

Support Crimea Joining Russia

95%

67% 63%

58% 57% 55%

35% 30%

24%

10% 7% 4%

% Support

Question: Do you support or not support Crimea joining Russia?

6

Support for Crimea Joining Russia is Higher Among Adults Who Use Both Russian and Western Media

95%

67% 63%

58% 57% 55%

35% 30%

10% 7%

95%

77% 81% 81%

71% 69%

45%

59%

21%

8%

% Support

Total Watch Russian and Western Media


7

Support for Crimea Joining Russia is Lower for People Who Do Not Use Any Media

95%

67% 63%

58% 57% 55%

35% 30%

10% 7%

95%

77% 81% 81%

71% 69%

45%

59%

21%

8%

87%

51%

39% 33%

36% 39%

30%

18%

4% 5%

% Support

Total Watch Russian and Western Media No Media


8

Support Crimea Joining by Education

97%

55% 55% 55% 51% 51%

33%

23% 21%

9% 4% 3%

94%

74%

65% 62% 57% 56%

35%

27% 32%

21%

5% 8%

Elementary Higher


9

% Support

Support Crimea Joining Russia – Nationality

57%

30% 24%

65% 72%

46% 53%

11% 12%

Kazakhstan Estonia Latvia

% Support

Total Russians Other nationalities


10

Likelihood of Crimea Situation Happening

23%

8%

3%

2%

4%

3%

30%

16%

16%

6%

12%

7%

8%

1%

2%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Georgia

Latvia

Estonia

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Belarus

11

Question: How likely is it that a situation similar to Crimea could happen in this country, in which a region of [your country]

becomes part of Russia? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?

U.S. International Media Approach Jeff Trimble

Deputy Director, International Broadcasting Bureau

13

“If the greatest battle of the 20th century was the battle for freedom

of information and against censorship, then the battle in the 21st

century will concern the abuse of freedom of information, the use

of information as a weapon by authoritarian rulers and non-state

actors.”

- Vasily Gatov

15

To inform, engage and connect people around the world

in support of freedom and democracy.

BBG Mission

Five Priorities

Aggressively pursue a shift to digital platforms,

Enhance the strategic cooperation across BBG network

entities,

Enhance the curation and acquisition of content,

Ensure impact by measuring progress and success, and

Target BBG resources to cover key spheres of influence,

including those of China, Cuba, Iran, violent extremism

(across regions), and Russia

Russia’s Sphere of Influence

Strategies in the Region

Focusing programming to impact strategic audiences

Expanding partnerships to reach audiences in local markets and

inform the news agenda

Moving resources to digital platforms to directly engage

audiences

Increasing research on the ground to better understand

audiences and impact

Utilizing BBG capabilities and expertise to meet unfilled strategic

needs and opportunities

Current Time

Role of Russian Media in the Baltics and Moldova

21

Paul Tibbitts

Director, Market Insight and Evaluation, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Who are the Russian speakers in the Baltics and Moldova?

The majority of Russian speakers in all four countries are not ethnic

Russians.

Russian speakers are defined as those who say they would understand most or

all of a radio or TV broadcast in Russian.

81%

65%

85%

59%

4%

28% 31%

5%

Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Russian Speakers and Ethnic Russians

Russian speakers Ethnic Russians

22

With the exception of Moldova, most Russian speakers are older

In addition to being older, Russian speakers in the Baltics are

concentrated in urban areas.

In contrast, Russian speakers in Moldova are younger, and only a slight

majority are in urban areas.

8%

18%

10%

22%

24%

23%

23%

28%

30%

25%

30%

24%

38%

34%

36%

26%

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Moldova

Russian Speakers by Age

15-29 30-44 45-59 60 or more

23

24

Lithuanians are least likely to turn to Russian-language media

69%

49%

59%

21%


Use of Russian-language media for news among the

general population

85%

76%

69%

36%


Use of Russian-language media for news among

Russian Speakers

TV is the most popular Russian-language medium

95%

55%

49%

36% 36%

30% 28%

88%

45%

57%

38%

23%

12% 12%

88%

50%

46%

36%

27%

21%

14%

85%

31%

41%

25%

13% 11% 6%

TV Internet Radio Print SocialNetworks

SMS Apps

Weekly use of platforms to access Russian-language news


25

Russian speakers rely most on domestic media

80% 86% 87% 86%

70% 72% 71% 72% 66% 68%

52% 54%


Importance of…for forming opinions on current events

Domestic Media Russian Federation Media International Media

26

Russian Federation media ranks lowest in trustworthiness among users

42%

80% 79%

67%

42%

63% 63%

54%

45%

71% 67%

74%


Users of media who report trusting it “A great deal” or “Somewhat”

Domestic Media Russian Media International Media

27

In the Baltics, trust in Russian Federation media is an indicator of support for Russia

In Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, just using Russian Federation media for

news and information does not correlate with support for Russia’s

policies.

- Rather, those who TRUST Russian media have much higher levels

of support.

All respondents, users of Russian Federation media, and not, were asked

if they support or oppose:

– Russia’s actions in Ukraine

– Domestic policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin

– Putin’s international policies

28

Support Russia’s actions in Ukraine

68%

50% 45%

13% 11% 11%

5% 7% 6%

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Use and trust Russian Federation media

Use and DO NOT trust Russian Federation media

Do not use Russian Federation media

29

Support Putin’s domestic policies

68%

58% 55%

15% 14% 10%

7% 10% 8%





30

Support Putin’s international policies

68%

50% 45%

13% 11% 11%

5% 7% 6%





31

Distrust in Russian Federation media also played a role in level of support in Moldova

In Moldova, levels of support among non-users of Russian Federation

media was similar to those who trust Russian Federation media.

Among those who use but distrust Russian Federation media, support was

much lower.

64% 57%

61%

36%

23% 25%

60% 57% 58%

Russia's actions in Ukraine Putin's domestic policies Putin's international policies

Support for . . .

Use and trust Russian media

Use and do not trust Russian media

Do not use Russian media

32

How many trust and use Russian Federation media?

29% 29%

34%

10%


Percent who use and trust Russian Federation media from the total population

33

Who trusts Russian Federation media? Ethnicity plays a major part

46%

26%

41% 41%

85% 81%

86%

30%

95%

73% 75%


Trust in Russian Federation Media by Ethnicity

Titular Ethnicity Russian Other

34

Who trusts Russian Federation media? There is no clear pattern in age or gender

51%

80%

57%

44% 42%

57% 61%

48%

39%

61% 61% 59%

40%

63%

69%

57%


Trust in Russian Federation Media by Age

15-29 30-44 45-59 60 and over

35

Conclusion

Trust in Russian Federation media is more significant than

simply viewership of media from the Russian Federation.

Consumers of Russian Federation media place a lower level

of trust in it than consumers of other international media

place in those sources.

– But rates of usage of other international media are much

lower

– What could increase international media use rates?

36

37

Appendix

BBG Research Methodology Slide

38

RussiaEstonia

Moldova

LatviaLithuania

Moldova

Fieldwork Date: August 2015

Sample size:1152

Lithuania

Field work Date: July

Sample Size:1101

Latvia

Field work Date: July 2015

Sample Size:1166

Estonia

Field Work Date: August &

September 2015

Sample Size:1052

World Poll Methodology

39

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